Quantifying the effect of persistent dryer climates on forest productivity and implications for forest planning:a case study in northern Germany

Background: Forest management decisions are based on expectations of future developments. For sound decisions it is essential to accurately predict the expected values in future developments and to account for their inherent uncertainty,for example the impact of climate change on forests. Changing climatic conditions affect forest productivity and alter the risk profile of forests and forest enterprises. Intensifying drought stress is seen as one major risk factor threatening forest management in the north German lowlands. Drought stress reduces tree growth and vitality and might even trigger mortality. But so far, it is not possible to quantify effects of a persistent dryer climate on forest productivity at a level suitable for forest management.Methods: We apply a well-established single-tree forest growth simulator to quantify the effect of persistent dryer climates on future forest productivity. We analyse the growth of Scots pine(Pinus sylvestris L.), European beech(Fagus sylvatico L.) and oak(Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea(Matt.) Liebl.) in two forest regions in the north German lowlands for a time interval of 60 years until 2070. The growth response under three different climate projections is compared to a baseline scenario.Results: The results show clear differences in volume increment to persistent dryer climates between tree species. The findings exhibit regional differences and temporal trends. While mean annual increment at biological rotation age of Scots pine and oak predominantly benefits from the projected climate conditions until 2070, beech might suffer losses of up to 3 m^3·ha^(-1)yr^(-1) depending on climate scenario and region. However, in the projection period2051 to 2070 the uncertainty ranges comprise positive as well as negative climatic effects for all species.Conclusions: The projected changes in forest growth serve as quantitative contributions to provide decision support in the evaluation of, for example, species future site suitability and timber supply assessments. The analysis of productivity changes under persistent dryer climate complements the drought vulnerability assessment which is applied in practical forestry in northwestern Germany today. The projected species' productivity has strong implications for forest management and the inherent uncertainty needs to be accounted for.

Carbon emission efficiency of forest processing industries in China

This paper uses an input-output table of China's provinces(2007-2016) to measure carbon emissions of these industries.It employs a Malmquist-Luenberger(ML) index with expected and undesired outputs,and an absolute β convergence and a conditional β convergence model,to conduct an in-depth analysis of dynamic changes and spatial convergence.Carbon emission efficiency of forest processing industries in 25 regions,including Shanghai,Chongqing,Zhejiang,and Jiangsu are increasing,whereas those of Tianjin,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,and Tibet are decreasing.The main contributing factors of carbon emission efficiency in three major regions vary over time.Further,carbon emission efficiency in the eastern,central,and western regions all have absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence,indicating that different regions are developing toward their own goals and industry,yet regions with lower efficiency are catching up with those where with more efficient strategies in place.Finally,this paper proposes according recommendations.

The Harvesting of the Endangered Palm Euterpe edulis in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: The Case of Linear Canopy Openings

The palm Euterpe edulis was historically very exploited by humans and even today, many individuals are cut down by collectors to harvest the edible palm hearts. The ecological aspects of this anthropogenic pressure and its related effects are poorly understood. Here we investigate if linear canopy openings in a fragment of Brazilian Atlantic Forest can cause edge effects and facilitate predatory harvesting by humans. We sampled in Tinguá Biological Reserve (Southeastern Brazil) native palm populations at forest edges adjacent to two linear canopy openings, and in the forest interior far from any edge. Our 8-year monitoring showed that the linear canopy openings negatively affected the palm populations reducing its density and regeneration mainly on edges, but no local extinction was observed. Thus, the direct human impact from harvesting, adverse survival conditions on edges and interspecific competition causes population declines with no local extinction, so this suggests that E. edulis may resist even under strong anthropogenic pressure.

National Forest Inventories capture the multifunctionality of managed forests in Germany

Background:Forests perform various important ecosystem functions that contribute to ecosystem services.In many parts of the world,forest management has shifted from a focus on timber production to multi-purpose forestry,combining timber production with the supply of other forest ecosystem services.However,it is unclear which forest types provide which ecosystem services and to what extent forests primarily managed for timber already supply multiple ecosystem services.Based on a comprehensive dataset collected across 150 forest plots in three regions differing in management intensity and species composition,we develop models to predict the potential supply of 13 ecosystem services.We use those models to assess the level of multifunctionality of managed forests at the national level using national forest inventory data.Results:Looking at the potential supply of ecosystem services,we found trade-offs(e.g.between both bark beetle control or dung decomposition and both productivity or soil carbon stocks)as well as synergies(e.g.for temperature regulation,carbon storage and culturally interesting plants)across the 53 most dominant forest types in Germany.No single forest type provided all ecosystem services equally.Some ecosystem services showed comparable levels across forest types(e.g.decomposition or richness of saprotrophs),while others varied strongly,depending on forest structural attributes(e.g.phosphorous availability or cover of edible plants)or tree species composition(e.g.potential nitrification activity).Variability in potential supply of ecosystem services was only to a lesser extent driven by environmental conditions.However,the geographic variation in ecosystem function supply across Germany was closely linked with the distribution of main tree species.Conclusions:Our results show that forest multifunctionality is limited to subsets of ecosystem services.The importance of tree species composition highlights that a lack of multifunctionality at the stand level can be compensated by managing forests at the landscape level,when stands of complementary forest types are combined.These results imply that multi-purpose forestry should be based on a variety of forest types requiring coordinated planning across larger spatial scales.

Romanian legal management rules limit wood production in Norway spruce and beech forests

Background： The quantitative impact of forest management on forests＇ wood resource was evaluated for Picea and Fagus mixed forests. The effects on the productivity of tendering operations, thinnings and rotation length have seldom been directly quantified on landscape scale. Methods： Two sites of similar fertility but subject to contrasted forest management were studied with detailed inventories： one in Germany, the other in Romania, and compared with the respective national forest inventories. In Romania, regulations impose very long rotations, low thinnings and a period of no-cut before harvest. In contrast, tending and thinnings are frequent and intense in Germany. Harvests start much earlier and must avoid clear cutting but maintain a permanent forest cover with natural regeneration. While Germany has an average annual wood increment representative for Central Europe, Romania represents the average for Eastern Europe. Results： The lack of tending and thinning in the Romanian site resulted in twice as many trees per hectare as in the German site for the same age. The productivity in Romanian production forests was 20 % lower than in Germany despite a similar fertility. The results were supported by the data from the national forest inventory of each country, which confirmed that the same differential exists at country scale. Furthermore, provided the difference in rotation length, two crops are harvested in Germany when only one is harvested in Romania. The losses of production due to a lower level of management in Romania where estimated to reach 12.8 million m3.y-1 in regular mountain production forests, and to 15 million m3.y-1 if managed protection forest is included. Conclusions： The productivity of Picea and Fagus mountain forests in Romania is severely depressed by the lack of tending and thinning, by overly long rotations and the existence of a 25-years no-cut period prior to harvest. The average standing volume in Germany was 50 % lower than in Romania, but the higher harvesting rate resulted in more than doubling wood production. Considering the mitigation effects of climate change by forests, it emerges that the increase in standing volume of forests in Romania is smaller than the additional harvest in Germany which serves fossil fuel substitution.

The carbon fluxes in different successional stages:modelling the dynamics of tropical montane forests in South Ecuador

Background： Tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon（C） cycle.However, tropical montane forests have been studied less than tropical lowland forests, and their role in carbon storage is not well understood.Montane forests are highly endangered due to logging, land-use and climate change.Our objective was to analyse how the carbon balance changes during forest succession.Methods： In this study, we used a method to estimate local carbon balances that combined forest inventory data with process-based forest models.We utilised such a forest model to study the carbon balance of a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador, comparing two topographical slope positions（ravines and lower slopes vs upper slopes and ridges）.Results： The simulation results showed that the forest acts as a carbon sink with a maximum net ecosystem exchange（NEE） of 9.3 Mg C？（ha？yr）-1during its early successional stage（0–100 years）.In the late successional stage, the simulated NEE fluctuated around zero and had a variation of 0.77 Mg C？（ha？yr）–1.The simulated variability of the NEE was within the range of the field data.We discovered several forest attributes（e.g., basal area or the relative amount of pioneer trees） that can serve as predictors for NEE for young forest stands（0–100 years） but not for those in the late successional stage（500–1,000 years）.In case of young forest stands these correlations are high, especially between stand basal area and NEE.Conclusion： In this study, we used an Ecuadorian study site as an example of how to successfully link a forest model with forest inventory data, for estimating stem-diameter distributions, biomass and aboveground net primary productivity.To conclude, this study shows that process-based forest models can be used to investigate the carbon balance of tropical montane forests.With this model it is possible to find hidden relationships between forest attributes and forest carbon fluxes.These relationships promote a better understanding of the role of tropical montane forests in the context of global carbon cycle, which in future will become more relevant to a society under global change.

Past,present and future of industrial plantation forestry and implication on future timber harvesting technology

Plantation forests are established,and expanding,to satisfy increasing global demand for timber products.Shifting societal values,such as safety,productivity,environmental,quality and social are influencing the plantation forestry sector.This is primarily driven through an ever increasing world population,which in turn influences the way nations view the value systems by which they live.More people require more resources-also forest products.Also,the availability of information is influencing the pace of technological development.These changes could result in a difference in the management of plantations that could affect the forest engineering systems of the future.This review aimed to summarize the current status of plantation forests;summarize future developments and possible scenarios in forest plantation management for the various products;and assess whether these developments in a plantation environment could affect the harvesting systems used.Factors influencing the form of plantations include the type and nature of the plantation owner;the change in demand for different and new forest products;climate change factors,including the use of biomass for energy,carbon sequestration and trading;ecosystem services and other products and services;and sustainability certification of forest management.The impact and influence of these factors were summarised into a series of key drivers that will influence the technology used in harvesting machines,as well as the choice of harvesting machines,systems and methods.These drivers were the effect of variations in tree size,the expansion of plantation areas onto more difficult terrain,diversity in plantation design,increased attention towards site impacts and the increased use of biomass for energy.Specific information is provided regarding how the harvesting systems could be affected.

Diversity of non-timber forest products in Cachar District, Assam, India

We identified 67 and 21 NTFP-yielding plant and animal species, respectively, in a reserve forest in Cachar district of Assam. We recorded globally threatened species listed by IUCN as Critically Endangered （plant species Dipterocarpus turbinatus）, Vulnerable （plant species Aquillaria malaccensis）, Endangered （animal species Hoolock hoolock, Indotestudo elongata and Manis pentadactyla）, and Vulnerable （animal species Nilssonia hurum and Rusa unicolor）. The whole plant or animal and/or their various parts were used as food or medicine, in house construction, magico-religious activities and others. While some NTFPs were harvested throughout the year, others were harvested seasonally. A comprehensive NTFP policy, along with scientific measures for regen- eration, restoration and augmentation of NTFP-yielding plants and animals, would help in addressing the conflicting demands of conservation and livelihood in the forests of this area.

Population distribution and threats to sustainable management of selected non-timber forest products in tropical lowland rainforests of south western Nigeria

Uncontrolled harvesting of non-timber forest products （NTFPs） poses a serious risk of extermination to several of these species in Nigeria. Yet, there is a paucity of information on the distribution, population status and sustainable management of NTFPs in most of the tropical lowland rainforests. We, therefore, assessed the population, distribution and threats to sustainable management of NTFPs within the tropical lowland rainforests of Omo and Shasha Forest Reserves, south western Nigeria. Data were obtained through inventory surveys on five top priority species including： bush mango （Irvingia gabonensis （Aubry-Lecomte ex O’Rorke） Baill）, African walnut （Tetracarpidium conophorum （Mull. Arg.） Hutch. ＆ Dalziel syn. Plukenetia conophora）, chew-stick （Massularia acuminata （G. Don） Bullock）, fever bark （Annickia chlorantha Setten ＆ P.J.Maas syn. Enantia chloranta） and bush pepper （Piper guineense Schumach. ＆ Thonn.）. Purposive and stratified random sampling techniques were used for the inventory. Each forest reserve was stratified into three, viz： less disturbed natural forest （for areas that have been rested for at least ten years）, recently disturbed natural forest （for areas that have suffered one form of human perturbation or the other in the last five years）, and plantation forest （for areas carrying forest plantation）. Data were collected from eighteen 10 m × 500 m belt transects located in the above strata. The species were generally fewer in both plantation and recently disturbed natural forest than the less disturbed natural forest, suggesting that forest disturbances （habitat modification） for other uses may have an effect on the occurrence and densities of the NTFPs. Exceptions to this trend were found for P. guineense and T. conophorum, which were fairly common in both plantation and recently disturbed natural forest. Among three tree NTFP species （i.e. I. gabonensis, M. acuminata and A. chlorantha）, only I. gabonensis showed a significant difference in overall DBH size classes for both reserves （t=？2.404; df =21; p=0.026）. Three tree NTFP species in both reserves further showed differences from the regular patterns of distribution of trees. The fairly regular reverse J-shaped size class distribution observed for M. acuminata in the study sites, however, suggests a recuperating population. In general, destructive harvesting of species, logging operations, low population size, narrow distribution ranges and habitat degradation are the major threats to the population of NTFPs in the study area. The implications of our findings for sustainable management of NTFPs in the study area are discussed and recommendations are made for a feasible approach towards enhancing the status of the species.

Effects of harvest intensity on the marketable organ yield,growth and reproduction of non-timber forest products(NTFPs):implication for conservation and sustainable utilization of NTFPs

Background:Non-timber forest products(NTFPs)are an important part of forest biodiversity,and the subsistence and trade of local people,especially in less developed countries.Because of the high ecological and economic value,NTFPs have faced the problem of over-exploitation,and the key to solve this problem is to determine the feasible way of sustainable utilization of NTFPs.Harvest intensity is one of the most important and easily controlled utilization factors,which can greatly influence the plant individual survival,growth and reproductive performances,and even the population structure and dynamics.Therefore,we chose two common and important NTFPs species with different marketable parts(i.e.,Acanthopanax senticosus with tender leaves and Aralia elata with tender buds)as our study objects.Aiming to determine the optimum harvest intensity for sustainably utilizing both NTFPs species,five levels of harvest intensity treatments(i.e.,control,light,medium,high and severe)were designed to assess the effects of harvest intensity on their marketable organ yield,plant growth and reproductive performances.Results:The biomass growth rates of marketable organ and plant growth of A.senticosus under light harvest intensity treatment were significantly higher than those under other harvest intensities.The plant height growth and 1000-seed weight of A.elata under severe harvest intensity treatment were significantly lower than those under control treatment.Conclusions:The light harvest intensity with 25% leaf removal and the high harvest intensity with all terminal buds harvested are the optimum harvest intensity to maintain the sustainable utilization of A.senticosus and A.elata,respectively.These findings could provide managers with basic but practical guidance for making decisions about the sustainable harvest management plan for the cultivated NTFPs species,and further provide a theoretical basis for managers to establish the harvest regulations for wild NTFPs species.Consequently,the local residents or communities can improve their income while ensure the sustainable development of wild NTFPs.

Mushroom Production as an Alternative for Rural Development in a Forested Mountainous Area

Wild mushrooms are recognized as important non-wood forest products in mountainous ecosystems, but their real potential for generating rural economies has not been fully evaluated due to the difficulties in obtaining reliable productivity data, minimizing their true potential as contributor to rural economies. Mushroom yield models based on large data series from Pinus forest ecosystems in the region of Catalonia(Spain), combined with data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory allow us to estimate the potential mushroom productivity by forest ecosystems. The results of 24,500 tons/yr of mushrooms of which 16,300 tons are classified as edible and 7,900 tons are commonly marketed demonstrate the importance of mushroom productions in Catalonian pine forests, mostly located in mountainous areas where the development of agricultural activities is limited. Economic mushroom value is estimated at 48 million € for the edible mushroom and 32 million € for those corresponding to marketable yields, confirming the potential of this non-wood forest product. These production results and corresponding economic values provide a basis for the incorporation of wild mushrooms as significant non-wood forest products in the development of forest policies in mountainous areas.

Diversity and production in an Afromontane Forest

Background：This contribution evaluates the effect of forest structure and tree species diversity on plot productivity and individual tree growth in the unique Knysna forests in Southern Africa using mapped tree data from an observational study that has been re-measured over a period of 40 years.Methods：The effects of tree species diversity and forest structure on tree growth and forest production are evaluated on three levels of resolution：a） the forest community（canopy,sub-canopy species）,b） the subplots（number of trees per ha,skewness of the diameter distribution,diameter coefficient of variation） and c） the immediate neighborhood of selected reference trees（＂Mingling＂,＂Dominance＂,Aggregation＂ and ＂Size Variation＂）.Results：An analysis of the community level identified two distinct clusters,one including dominant/canopy species with the highest growth rates and a greater variation of growth,and another cluster which includes the remaining subcanopy species which have a smaller maximum size and lower rates of growth.The area-based structure variables on plot level have a highly significant effect on total basal area growth.However,the effects of forest density and species richness on productivity were not straight forward.Maximum basal area production of about 0.75 m^2/ha/year is achieved at medium levels of richness（around 20 species per ha） and medium levels of density（around 30 m^2/ha basal area） using percentile regression estimates.The relative ＂Dominance＂ of a selected reference tree had a highly significant effect on individual tree growth on all investigated species.Other neighbourhood structure variables were only occasionally significant or not significant at all.Conclusion：This contribution presents a new theoretical framework for analysing natural forests that includes community,plot and neighborhood variables of forest structure and diversity,and a first specific analysis of the structure and dynamics of the Knysna Afromontane Forest,based on a unique set of longterm observations.The species-area（SAR） model developed in this study,represents a new general approach that can be used to derive a common standard of tree species diversity for different plot sizes,the species richness per hectare.

Contribution of non-timber forest products to the livelihoods of the forest-dependent communities around the Khadimnagar National Park in northeastern Bangladesh

Non-timber forest products(NTFPs)play a significant role in the improvement of the forest-dependent people’s livelihoodsaround the world,strengthening protection for the sustainable use of forests.The purpose of this research was to evaluate the influence of occupational category-wise(fuelwood collectors,farmers,small-scale businessmen,day labourers,and tea estate labourers)dependencyon NTFPsand the role of NTFPs on household income around the Khadimnagar National Park(KNP)in northeastern Bangladesh.In 2014,178purposively selected respondents from four villages(out of 22 villagesaround the KNP)were interviewed face-to-face using a semi-structured questionnaire.The study observed that these forest-dependent communities utilized resources of the KNP mainly for domestic energy supply,household income,and house construction.Results showed that income from NTFPs made a significant contribution to family income.Income data analysis indicated that small-scale businessmen earned relatively more income from NTFPs,followed by tea estate labourersand day labourers.The study revealed significant negative relationships of the distance of households from the forest with the amount of NTFPs collected(P<0.01)and monthly income from NTFPs(P<0.01).Positive significant relationships were found between the amount of NTFPs collected and the time spent in NTFP collection(P<0.001),as well as betweenmonthly income from NTFPs and family size(P<0.001).The fuelwood collectors and farmers collected significantly greater amounts of NTFPs per trip(P<0.001)than other occupational categories.The households that were moderately to highly dependent on NTFPs collected significantly higher amounts of NTFPs pertrip(P<0.01)than the households that were moderately dependent and less dependent on NTFPs.Community dependence on KNP’sresources,community’sappreciation of the KNP’s ecosystem services for villagers’livelihoods,and community’s high levels of concern for forest conservation provided a foundation for the sustainable management of the KNP.The study findings will be useful for designing an effective forest management plan and policy for NTFP management and forest conservation with the active involvement of the forest-dependent people in northeastern Bangladesh.

Yield models for predicting aboveground ectomycorrhizal fungal productivity in Pinus sylvestris and Pinus pinaster stands of northern Spain

Background: Predictive models shed light on aboveground fungal yield dynamics and can assist decision-making in forestry by integrating this valuable non-wood forest product into forest management planning. However, the currently existing models are based on rather local data and, thus, there is a lack of predictive tools to monitor mushroom yields on larger scales.Results: This work presents the first empirical models for predicting the annual yields of ectomycorrhizal mushrooms and related ecosystem services in Pinus sylvestris and Pinus pinaster stands in northern Spain, using a long-term dataset suitable to account for the combined effect of meteorological conditions and stand structure.Models were fitted for the following groups of fungi separately: all ectomycorrhizal mushrooms, edible mushrooms and marketed mushrooms. Our results show the influence of the weather variables(mainly precipitation) on mushroom yields as well as the relevance of the basal area of the forest stand that follows a right-skewed unimodal curve with maximum predicted yields at stand basal areas of 30–40 m2·ha-1.Conclusion: These models are the first empirical models for predicting the annual yields of ectomycorrhizal mushrooms in Pinus sylvestris and Pinus pinaster stands in northern Spain, being of the highest resolution developed to date and enable predictions of mushrooms productivity by taking into account weather conditions and forests’ location, composition and structure.

Forest land use discontinuity and northern red oak Quercus rubra introduction change biomass allocation and life strategy of lingonberry Vaccinium vitis-idaea

Background:Multi-purpose use of forests in a sustainable way forces a recognition of how introduction of alien woody species in forests with different land use histories affect native plants other than trees.Lingonberry Vaccinium vitis-idaea is an important understory component of temperate and boreal forests and provider of valuable non-wood forest products.Here we studied effects of land use changes and introduction of Northern red oak Quercus rubra on lingonberry in mesic Scots pine forests(in central Poland).We measured lingonberry cover,height of shoots,biomass of stems and leaves,and fruit productivity.Shoots were collected within 200 research plots located in recent and ancient Scots pine forests,with and without Q.rubra.Results:We found that V.vitis-idaea reached lower cover,aboveground biomass and fruit production in recent than ancient forests and in forests with than without Q.rubra.The fruit production in recent pine forest was only 2%of that reported in ancient pine forest,and V.vitis-idaea did not reproduce generatively in forests with Q.rubra.Biomass and carbon sequestration of V.vitis-idaea in forests with alien(invasive)trees decreased by 75%compared to ancient pine forest.Effects were also clear at the individual shoot level–in less suitable conditions we found taller heights and higher biomass allocation into stems than foliage.Biomass allocation in fruiting and non-fruiting shoots in pine forests was also different–less of the dry biomass of fruiting shoots was allocated to leaves than to stems.Conclusions:In the age of high interest in ecosystem services and discussions about usage of alien tree species as alternatives in forest management,our results clearly indicate disruption of ecosystem services provided by V.vitisidaea in the presence of Q.rubra.Lingonberry benefited from the continuity of forest land use,however,regardless of land-use legacy,alien tree introduction led to decline in abundance of species crucial for ecosystem functioning.Therefore,to maintain valuable native species and for conservation of ecosystem services delivery,we suggest limiting the introduction of Q.rubra in areas with abundant V.vitis-idaea,especially in forests with continuous forest land-use history.

Discrepancies between targets and achievements in industrial forest production and export in Tanzania

It is important to revisit our plans and compare what was ideally targeted against what was actually achieved in implementation. In comparing the achievements with targets, strengths or weaknesses of established strategies can be accepted or corrections implemented since a plan also outlines some strategies for achieving the targets set. In this study, achievements in production and export of industrial forest products, i.e., sawn wood, plywood, chipboard and fibreboard, paper and paperboard and industrial round wood, are compared against targeted figures for 1996 for Tanzania. Discrepancies were obtained by subtracting targeted from achieved values and expressed both as absolute and relative differences in terms of the targeted values, with a negative sign for pro- duction where achievements were less than targets and a positive sign when achievements were higher than targets. Values achieved ranged from 4%-100% of the targeted values, depending on the product, and were only higher than the targeted value for industrial round wood. Possible causes of the discrepancies are inefficiency of parastatal companies, low private investment, sub-maximal in- dustrial operation and plant inefficiencies. Discrepancies could also result from unrealistic data used in planning due to difficulty in data availability and poor intra- and inter-sectoral coordination. The implications of these discrepancies are low contributions of the wood-based industry to the national economy, increased import substitution of wood-based products, increased socio-economic and environmental degradation and decreased integrity in planning and policy making.

Trends in Markets for Forest-Based Products and Consequences for Selected Countries

The forest sectors in many regions and countries are facing a need to change their structure, due to the development of new markets, emergence of new competitors, and shifts in production and consumption patterns for forest products. This article focuses on recent changes in the trade in these products, on imports and exports of four countries (USA, Sweden, Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, China) during the period from 1995 to 2011. For this purpose we use explanatory data analysis, time series analysis, benchmarking, meta-synthesis and content analysis of scientific and business publications concerning national and global trends in forest product industries. Data sources are various organizations’ databases of international trade in forest-based products in both monetary and physical terms (cubic meters and tons). The results show that the US and Swedish forest sectors are adversely affected by downturns in both their domestic and foreign markets during the study period, while the Ukrainian sector maintains exports of low value-added products at roughly constant levels (except that particle-board exports increase). China maintains production quantities of low value-added forest-based products, but also substantially increases exports of high-value added products. The results may facilitate efforts to forecast future trends and provide useful information and methodological approaches for future studies of interest to industry representatives, policy-makers and researchers.

Model development to estimate site index values for six major tree species in North Korea

Due to considerable deforestation in North Korea,there is a need to plan forest restoration programs based on scientific forest management.In this study,a methodology was developed for estimating the site index values of six major tree species and the forest productivity potential.The site index values of these tree species were derived in South Korea using the Chapman-Richards equation.These values were used with data from the 6th National Forest Inventory,which included 20 types of edaphic,topographic,and climatic factors,and random forest analysis—a widely used machine learning technique for spatial prediction—to develop a new model for estimating the site index values of these species across South Korea.The prediction accuracy of this model was evaluated using the root mean square error.The results show that the prediction accuracy was high,with a root mean square error of~1m.Moreover,the importance of the variables related to climate and geography was generally high.The proposed site index estimation model for six tree species was applied across North Korea,and its effectiveness tested by comparing the estimated values with those reported in literature from North Korea.The differences between the model outputs and recorded data in the northern alpine regions were presumably due to the lack of data for high-altitude regions in South Korea.This model is based on the determination of the suitability of tree species in restoration efforts.Therefore,it can contribute to the evaluation of forest productivity in North Korea and may help plan efficient forest restoration programs.

Gap models across micro-to mega-scales of time and space:examples of Tansley’s ecosystem concept

Background:Gap models are individual-based models for forests.They simulate dynamic multispecies assemblages over multiple tree-generations and predict forest responses to altered environmental conditions.Their development emphases designation of the significant biological and ecological processes at appropriate time/space scales.Conceptually,they are with consistent with A.G.Tansley’s original definition of"the ecosystem".Results:An example microscale application inspects feedbacks among terrestrial vegetation change,air-quality changes from the vegetation’s release of volatile organic compounds(VOC),and climate change effects on ecosystem production of VOC’s.Gap models can allocate canopy photosynthate to the individual trees whose leaves form the vertical leaf-area profiles.VOC release depends strongly on leaf physiology by species of these trees.Leaf-level VOC emissions increase with climate-warming.Species composition change lowers the abundance of VOC-emitting taxa.In interactions among ecosystem functions and biosphere/atmosphere exchanges,community composition responses can outweigh physiological responses.This contradicts previous studies that emphasize the warming-induced impacts on leaf function.As a mesoscale example,the changes in climate(warming)on forests including pest-insect dynamics demonstrates changes on the both the tree and the insect populations.This is but one of many cases that involve using a gap model to simulate changes in spatial units typical of sampling plots and scaling these to landscape and regional levels.As this is the typical application scale for gap models,other examples are identified.The insect/climatechange can be scaled to regional consequences by simulating survey plots across a continental or subcontinental zone.Forest inventories at these scales are often conducted using independent survey plots distributed across a region.Model construction that mimics this sample design avoids the difficulties in modelling spatial interactions,but we also discuss simulation at these scales with contagion effects.Conclusions:At the global-scale,successful simulations to date have used functional types of plants,rather than tree species.In a final application,the fine-scale predictions of a gap model are compared with data from micrometeorological eddy-covariance towers and then scaled-up to produce maps of global patterns of evapotranspiration,net primary production,gross primary production and respiration.New active-remote-sensing instruments provide opportunities to test these global predictions.

Modeling height growth for teak plantations in Colombia using the reducible stochastic differential equation approach

Teak(Tectona grandis L.f.)plantations are increasingly being established in tropical regions to meet a rising demand for its highly valued timber.Teak plantations have been established in the Atlantic Coastal Plain region of Colombia,a region climatically suitable for teak growth by having a monsoon climate with a unimodal precipitation pattern.Tree diameter at breast height(DBH,1.3 m above ground)and mean top height,periodically measured over a 17-year period in 44 permanent sampling plots of size 0.06 and 0.10 ha,were used in this study.A stochastic differential equation(SDE),along with a Bertalanffy–Richards-type height growth model,was used to model and estimate top height growth of teak plantations in Colombia.Environmental noise and height measurement errors were explicitly considered as the main uncertainty sources of mean top height growth.The best model for estimating mean top height,based on statistical performance and biological rationale,had the asymptote defined as a local parameter and the growth rate and shape specified as global parameters.This model outperformed its counterpart that had the growth rate specified as a local parameter and asymptote and shape as global parameters.The selected model also outperformed alternative approaches such as the mixed-effects model,generalized algebraic difference approach,and the dummy variable method.Estimated trajectories for the mean top height of teak in Colombia are biologically sound based on the measured height series and previous studies in Latin America.Results suggest that most of the uncertainty associated with the mean top height growth of teak plantations in Colombia was largely explained by environmental noise.The best estimated model using the SDE approach can be useful for predicting height growth and evaluating site productivity of teak plantations in Colombia and in neighbouring countries with biophysical characteristics similar to those where teak has been planted in Colombia.