The fuel moisture content is an integral part of any workable fire danger-rating system. This paper presented dynamic models for estimating 1-h, 10-h. 100-h and 1000-h timelag fuels, that were developed by multiple re...The fuel moisture content is an integral part of any workable fire danger-rating system. This paper presented dynamic models for estimating 1-h, 10-h. 100-h and 1000-h timelag fuels, that were developed by multiple regression and stepwise variable selection of statistics. The variables include both meteorological factors and moisture contents observed prior to the day correspondingly. The analysis revealed that the fuel moisture content are correlated positively with the precipitation of 24 hours prior to the observation time, and negatiyely with air temperature at observing height of 1.5 meter in forest.展开更多
Studying diurnal variation in the moisture content of fine forest fuel(FFMC)is key to understanding forest fire prevention.This study established models for predicting the diurnal mean,maximum,and minimum FFMC in a bo...Studying diurnal variation in the moisture content of fine forest fuel(FFMC)is key to understanding forest fire prevention.This study established models for predicting the diurnal mean,maximum,and minimum FFMC in a boreal forest in China using the relationship between FFMC and meteorological variables.A spline interpolation function is proposed for describing diurnal variations in FFMC.After 1 day with a 1 h field measurement data testing,the results indicate that the accuracy of the sunny slope model was 100%and 84%when the absolute error was<3%and<10%,respectively,whereas the accuracy of the shady slope model was 72%and 76%when the absolute error was<3%and<10%,respectively.The results show that sunny slope and shady slope models can predict and describe diurnal variations in fine fuel moisture content,and provide a basis for forest fire danger prediction in boreal forest ecosystems in China.展开更多
The dead fuel moisture content(DFMC)is the key driver leading to fire occurrence.Accurately estimating the DFMC could help identify locations facing fire risks,prioritise areas for fire monitoring,and facilitate timel...The dead fuel moisture content(DFMC)is the key driver leading to fire occurrence.Accurately estimating the DFMC could help identify locations facing fire risks,prioritise areas for fire monitoring,and facilitate timely deployment of fire-suppression resources.In this study,the DFMC and environmental variables,including air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,solar radiation,rainfall,atmospheric pressure,soil temperature,and soil humidity,were simultaneously measured in a grassland of Ergun City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China in 2021.We chose three regression models,i.e.,random forest(RF)model,extreme gradient boosting(XGB)model,and boosted regression tree(BRT)model,to model the seasonal DFMC according to the data collected.To ensure accuracy,we added time-lag variables of 3 d to the models.The results showed that the RF model had the best fitting effect with an R2value of 0.847 and a prediction accuracy with a mean absolute error score of 4.764%among the three models.The accuracies of the models in spring and autumn were higher than those in the other two seasons.In addition,different seasons had different key influencing factors,and the degree of influence of these factors on the DFMC changed with time lags.Moreover,time-lag variables within 44 h clearly improved the fitting effect and prediction accuracy,indicating that environmental conditions within approximately 48 h greatly influence the DFMC.This study highlights the importance of considering 48 h time-lagged variables when predicting the DFMC of grassland fuels and mapping grassland fire risks based on the DFMC to help locate high-priority areas for grassland fire monitoring and prevention.展开更多
Forest fire occurrence is closely relative with fuel water content. There are a lot of research about dead fuels. but forest fuels consist of both dead fuels and living fuels. Each large fire occurrence has a good rel...Forest fire occurrence is closely relative with fuel water content. There are a lot of research about dead fuels. but forest fuels consist of both dead fuels and living fuels. Each large fire occurrence has a good relationship with living fuels. Especially living fuels can influence the production and development of big forest fire, so, we selected Tahe, in Daxingan Mountains, as observation site. According to actual data,we can establish a set of models of different living fuel water content variation with linear -regression method.展开更多
Preventing and suppressing forest fires is one of the main tasks of forestry agencies to reduce resource loss and requires a thorough understanding of the importance of factors affecting their occurrence.This study wa...Preventing and suppressing forest fires is one of the main tasks of forestry agencies to reduce resource loss and requires a thorough understanding of the importance of factors affecting their occurrence.This study was carried out in forest plantations on Maoer Mountain in order to develop models for predicting the moisture content of dead fine fuel using meteorological and soil variables.Models by Nelson(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)and Van Wagner and Pickett(Can For Service 33,1985)describing the equilibrium moisture content as a function of relative humidity and temperature were evaluated.A random forest and generalized additive models were built to select the most important meteorological variables affecting fuel moisture content.Nelson’s(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)model was accurate for Pinus koraiensis,Pinus sylvestris,Larix gmelinii and mixed Larix gmelinii—Ulmus propinqua fuels.The random forest model showed that temperature and relative humidity were the most important factors affecting fuel moisture content.The generalized additive regression model showed that temperature,relative humidity and rain were the main drivers affecting fuel moisture content.In addition to the combined effects of temperature,rainfall and relative humidity,solar radiation or wind speed were also significant on some sites.In P.koraiensis and P.sylvestris plantations,where soil parameters were measured,rain,soil moisture and temperature were the main factors of fuel moisture content.The accuracies of the random forest model and generalized additive model were similar,however,the random forest model was more accurate but underestimated the effect of rain on fuel moisture.展开更多
Fuel moisture content is an important variable for forest fires because it affects fuel ignition and fire behavior. In order to accurately predict fuel ignition potential, fuel moisture content must be assessed by eva...Fuel moisture content is an important variable for forest fires because it affects fuel ignition and fire behavior. In order to accurately predict fuel ignition potential, fuel moisture content must be assessed by evaluating fire spread, fireline intensity and fuel consumption.Our objective here is to model moisture content of surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine(Pinus brutia Ten.) stands in relation to weather conditions, namely temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in the Mugla province of Turkey. All surface fuels were categorized according to diameter classes and fuel types. Six fuel categories were defined: these were 0–0.3, 0.3–0.6, and0.6–1 cm diameter classes, and cone, surface litter, and duff. Plastic containers 15 9 20 cm in size with 1 9 1 mm mesh size were used. Samples were taken from 09:00 to19:00 h and weighed every 2 h with 0.01 g precision for10 days in August. At the end of the study, samples were taken to the laboratory, oven-dried at 105 °C for 24 h and weighed to obtain fuel-moisture contents. Weather measurements were taken from a fully automated weather station set up at the study site prior to the study. Correlation and regression analyses were carried out and models were developed to predict fuel moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phase for each fuel type categories. Practical fuel moisture prediction models were developed for dry period. Models were developed that performed well with reasonable accuracy, explaining up to 92 and 95.6%of the variability in fuel-moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phases, respectively. Validation of the models were conducted using an independent data set and known fuel moisture prediction models. The predictive power of the models was satisfactory with mean absolute error values being 1.48 and 1.02 for desorption and adsorption as compared to the 2.05 and 1.60 values for the Van Wagner's hourly litter moisture content prediction model. Results obtained in this study will be invaluable for fire management planning and modeling.展开更多
The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling regi...The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor- shrub, herbs’ grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflamma ble fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammabIe fuel loads in phododendron-- Larix gmelinii forest and in the herb- - Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm2and 10.473 t/hm2 respectively’ by 13 years later. and that was 12.297 t/hm 2 in herb--Larix gmeliniiforest by 7 years later.. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated.展开更多
A dynamic thermal transfer model of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) stack is developed based on energy conservation in order to reach better temperature control of PEMFC stack. Considering its uncertain p...A dynamic thermal transfer model of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) stack is developed based on energy conservation in order to reach better temperature control of PEMFC stack. Considering its uncertain parameters and disturbance, we propose a robust adaptive controller based on backstepping algorithm of Lyaponov function. Numerical simulations indicate the validity of the proposed controller.展开更多
This article aims to investigate the transient behavior of a planar direct internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell(DIR-SOFC) comprehensively.A one-dimensional dynamic model of a planar DIR-SOFC is first developed bas...This article aims to investigate the transient behavior of a planar direct internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell(DIR-SOFC) comprehensively.A one-dimensional dynamic model of a planar DIR-SOFC is first developed based on mass and energy balances,and electrochemical principles.Further,a solution strategy is presented to solve the model,and the International Energy Agency(IEA) benchmark test is used to validate the model.Then,through model-based simulations,the steady-state performance of a co-flow planar DIR-SOFC under specified initial operating conditions and its dynamic response to introduced operating parameter disturbances are studied.The dynamic responses of important SOFC variables,such as cell temperature,current density,and cell voltage are all investigated when the SOFC is subjected to the step-changes in various operating parameters including both the load current and the inlet fuel and air flow rates.The results indicate that the rapid dynamics of the current density and the cell voltage are mainly influenced by the gas composition,particularly the H2 molar fraction in anode gas channels,while their slow dynamics are both dominated by the SOLID(including the PEN and interconnects) temperature.As the load current increases,the SOLID temperature and the maximum SOLID temperature gradient both increase,and thereby,the cell breakdown is apt to occur because of excessive thermal stresses.Changing the inlet fuel flow rate might lead to the change in the anode gas composition and the consequent change in the current density distribution and cell voltage.The inlet air flow rate has a great impact on the cell temperature distribution along the cell,and thus,is a suitable manipulated variable to control the cell temperature.展开更多
The polymer electrolyte membrane(PEM) fuel cell has been regarded as a potential alternative power source,and a model is necessary for its design,control and power management.A hybrid dynamic model of PEM fuel cell,...The polymer electrolyte membrane(PEM) fuel cell has been regarded as a potential alternative power source,and a model is necessary for its design,control and power management.A hybrid dynamic model of PEM fuel cell,which combines the advantages of mechanism model and black-box model,is proposed in this paper.To improve the performance,the static neural network and variable neural network are used to build the black-box model.The static neural network can significantly improve the static performance of the hybrid model,and the variable neural network makes the hybrid dynamic model predict the real PEM fuel cell behavior with required accuracy.Finally,the hybrid dynamic model is validated with a 500 W PEM fuel cell.The static and transient experiment results show that the hybrid dynamic model can predict the behavior of the fuel cell stack accurately and therefore can be effectively utilized in practical application.展开更多
文摘The fuel moisture content is an integral part of any workable fire danger-rating system. This paper presented dynamic models for estimating 1-h, 10-h. 100-h and 1000-h timelag fuels, that were developed by multiple regression and stepwise variable selection of statistics. The variables include both meteorological factors and moisture contents observed prior to the day correspondingly. The analysis revealed that the fuel moisture content are correlated positively with the precipitation of 24 hours prior to the observation time, and negatiyely with air temperature at observing height of 1.5 meter in forest.
基金financially supported by the Special Fund for Forest Scientific Research in the Public Welfare(No.201404402)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.C2572014BA23 and 2572019BA03)。
文摘Studying diurnal variation in the moisture content of fine forest fuel(FFMC)is key to understanding forest fire prevention.This study established models for predicting the diurnal mean,maximum,and minimum FFMC in a boreal forest in China using the relationship between FFMC and meteorological variables.A spline interpolation function is proposed for describing diurnal variations in FFMC.After 1 day with a 1 h field measurement data testing,the results indicate that the accuracy of the sunny slope model was 100%and 84%when the absolute error was<3%and<10%,respectively,whereas the accuracy of the shady slope model was 72%and 76%when the absolute error was<3%and<10%,respectively.The results show that sunny slope and shady slope models can predict and describe diurnal variations in fine fuel moisture content,and provide a basis for forest fire danger prediction in boreal forest ecosystems in China.
基金funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China Strategic International Cooperation in Science and Technology Innovation Program (2018YFE0207800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31971483)。
文摘The dead fuel moisture content(DFMC)is the key driver leading to fire occurrence.Accurately estimating the DFMC could help identify locations facing fire risks,prioritise areas for fire monitoring,and facilitate timely deployment of fire-suppression resources.In this study,the DFMC and environmental variables,including air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,solar radiation,rainfall,atmospheric pressure,soil temperature,and soil humidity,were simultaneously measured in a grassland of Ergun City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China in 2021.We chose three regression models,i.e.,random forest(RF)model,extreme gradient boosting(XGB)model,and boosted regression tree(BRT)model,to model the seasonal DFMC according to the data collected.To ensure accuracy,we added time-lag variables of 3 d to the models.The results showed that the RF model had the best fitting effect with an R2value of 0.847 and a prediction accuracy with a mean absolute error score of 4.764%among the three models.The accuracies of the models in spring and autumn were higher than those in the other two seasons.In addition,different seasons had different key influencing factors,and the degree of influence of these factors on the DFMC changed with time lags.Moreover,time-lag variables within 44 h clearly improved the fitting effect and prediction accuracy,indicating that environmental conditions within approximately 48 h greatly influence the DFMC.This study highlights the importance of considering 48 h time-lagged variables when predicting the DFMC of grassland fuels and mapping grassland fire risks based on the DFMC to help locate high-priority areas for grassland fire monitoring and prevention.
文摘Forest fire occurrence is closely relative with fuel water content. There are a lot of research about dead fuels. but forest fuels consist of both dead fuels and living fuels. Each large fire occurrence has a good relationship with living fuels. Especially living fuels can influence the production and development of big forest fire, so, we selected Tahe, in Daxingan Mountains, as observation site. According to actual data,we can establish a set of models of different living fuel water content variation with linear -regression method.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of ChinaKey Projects for Strategic International Innovative Cooperation in Science and Technology(2018YFE0207800)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2572019BA03)partly by the China Scholarship Council(CSC No.2016DFH417)。
文摘Preventing and suppressing forest fires is one of the main tasks of forestry agencies to reduce resource loss and requires a thorough understanding of the importance of factors affecting their occurrence.This study was carried out in forest plantations on Maoer Mountain in order to develop models for predicting the moisture content of dead fine fuel using meteorological and soil variables.Models by Nelson(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)and Van Wagner and Pickett(Can For Service 33,1985)describing the equilibrium moisture content as a function of relative humidity and temperature were evaluated.A random forest and generalized additive models were built to select the most important meteorological variables affecting fuel moisture content.Nelson’s(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)model was accurate for Pinus koraiensis,Pinus sylvestris,Larix gmelinii and mixed Larix gmelinii—Ulmus propinqua fuels.The random forest model showed that temperature and relative humidity were the most important factors affecting fuel moisture content.The generalized additive regression model showed that temperature,relative humidity and rain were the main drivers affecting fuel moisture content.In addition to the combined effects of temperature,rainfall and relative humidity,solar radiation or wind speed were also significant on some sites.In P.koraiensis and P.sylvestris plantations,where soil parameters were measured,rain,soil moisture and temperature were the main factors of fuel moisture content.The accuracies of the random forest model and generalized additive model were similar,however,the random forest model was more accurate but underestimated the effect of rain on fuel moisture.
基金supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey(TUBITAK),Project No:TOVAG–112O809
文摘Fuel moisture content is an important variable for forest fires because it affects fuel ignition and fire behavior. In order to accurately predict fuel ignition potential, fuel moisture content must be assessed by evaluating fire spread, fireline intensity and fuel consumption.Our objective here is to model moisture content of surface fuels in normally stocked Calabrian pine(Pinus brutia Ten.) stands in relation to weather conditions, namely temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed in the Mugla province of Turkey. All surface fuels were categorized according to diameter classes and fuel types. Six fuel categories were defined: these were 0–0.3, 0.3–0.6, and0.6–1 cm diameter classes, and cone, surface litter, and duff. Plastic containers 15 9 20 cm in size with 1 9 1 mm mesh size were used. Samples were taken from 09:00 to19:00 h and weighed every 2 h with 0.01 g precision for10 days in August. At the end of the study, samples were taken to the laboratory, oven-dried at 105 °C for 24 h and weighed to obtain fuel-moisture contents. Weather measurements were taken from a fully automated weather station set up at the study site prior to the study. Correlation and regression analyses were carried out and models were developed to predict fuel moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phase for each fuel type categories. Practical fuel moisture prediction models were developed for dry period. Models were developed that performed well with reasonable accuracy, explaining up to 92 and 95.6%of the variability in fuel-moisture contents for desorption and adsorption phases, respectively. Validation of the models were conducted using an independent data set and known fuel moisture prediction models. The predictive power of the models was satisfactory with mean absolute error values being 1.48 and 1.02 for desorption and adsorption as compared to the 2.05 and 1.60 values for the Van Wagner's hourly litter moisture content prediction model. Results obtained in this study will be invaluable for fire management planning and modeling.
文摘The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor- shrub, herbs’ grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflamma ble fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammabIe fuel loads in phododendron-- Larix gmelinii forest and in the herb- - Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm2and 10.473 t/hm2 respectively’ by 13 years later. and that was 12.297 t/hm 2 in herb--Larix gmeliniiforest by 7 years later.. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated.
文摘A dynamic thermal transfer model of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) stack is developed based on energy conservation in order to reach better temperature control of PEMFC stack. Considering its uncertain parameters and disturbance, we propose a robust adaptive controller based on backstepping algorithm of Lyaponov function. Numerical simulations indicate the validity of the proposed controller.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (2006AA05Z148)
文摘This article aims to investigate the transient behavior of a planar direct internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell(DIR-SOFC) comprehensively.A one-dimensional dynamic model of a planar DIR-SOFC is first developed based on mass and energy balances,and electrochemical principles.Further,a solution strategy is presented to solve the model,and the International Energy Agency(IEA) benchmark test is used to validate the model.Then,through model-based simulations,the steady-state performance of a co-flow planar DIR-SOFC under specified initial operating conditions and its dynamic response to introduced operating parameter disturbances are studied.The dynamic responses of important SOFC variables,such as cell temperature,current density,and cell voltage are all investigated when the SOFC is subjected to the step-changes in various operating parameters including both the load current and the inlet fuel and air flow rates.The results indicate that the rapid dynamics of the current density and the cell voltage are mainly influenced by the gas composition,particularly the H2 molar fraction in anode gas channels,while their slow dynamics are both dominated by the SOLID(including the PEN and interconnects) temperature.As the load current increases,the SOLID temperature and the maximum SOLID temperature gradient both increase,and thereby,the cell breakdown is apt to occur because of excessive thermal stresses.Changing the inlet fuel flow rate might lead to the change in the anode gas composition and the consequent change in the current density distribution and cell voltage.The inlet air flow rate has a great impact on the cell temperature distribution along the cell,and thus,is a suitable manipulated variable to control the cell temperature.
基金Supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (60925011)
文摘The polymer electrolyte membrane(PEM) fuel cell has been regarded as a potential alternative power source,and a model is necessary for its design,control and power management.A hybrid dynamic model of PEM fuel cell,which combines the advantages of mechanism model and black-box model,is proposed in this paper.To improve the performance,the static neural network and variable neural network are used to build the black-box model.The static neural network can significantly improve the static performance of the hybrid model,and the variable neural network makes the hybrid dynamic model predict the real PEM fuel cell behavior with required accuracy.Finally,the hybrid dynamic model is validated with a 500 W PEM fuel cell.The static and transient experiment results show that the hybrid dynamic model can predict the behavior of the fuel cell stack accurately and therefore can be effectively utilized in practical application.