A forecasting and forewarning model for methane hazard in working face of coal mine based on LS-SVM

To improve the precision and reliability in predicting methane hazard in working face of coal mine, we have proposed a forecasting and forewarning model for methane hazard based on the least square support vector (LS-SVM) multi-classifier and regression machine. For the forecasting model, the methane concentration can be considered as a nonlinear time series and the time series analysis method is adopted to predict the change in methane concentration using LS-SVM regression. For the forewarning model, which is based on the forecasting results, by the multi-classification method of LS-SVM, the methane hazard was identified to four grades: normal, attention, warning and danger. According to the forewarning results, corresponding measures are taken. The model was used to forecast and forewarn the K9 working face. The results obtained by LS-SVM regression show that the forecast- ing have a high precision and forewarning results based on a LS-SVM multi-classifier are credible. Therefore, it is an effective model building method for continuous prediction of methane concentration and hazard forewarning in working face.

INFRARED THERMAL IMAGE STUDY ON THE FOREWARNING OF COAL AND SANDSTONE FAILURE UNDER LOAD

In the experimental study, AGE-782 thermal instrument was used to detect the infrared radiation variation of coal and sandstone (wave-length range 3.6～5.5 μm was used). It's discovered that coal and sandstone failure under load have three kinds of infrared thermal features as well as infrared forewarning messages. That are: (1) temperature rises gradually but drops before failure ; (2) temperature rises gradually but quickly rises before failure; (3) first rises,then drops and lower temperature emerges before failure. The further researches and the prospect of micro-wave remote sensing detection .on ground pressure is also discussed.

Partition airflow varying features of chaos-theory-based coalmine ventilation system and related safety forecasting and forewarning system

To realize real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting and forewarning of coalmine ventilation systems(CVS), in this paper, we first established a joint surface and underground CVS safety management system consisting of main ventilation fan, safety-partition linked passageways, and air-required locations. We then applied chaos theory to identify the air quantity and gas concentration of underground partition boundaries, and adopted a fixed data quantity, multi-step progressive, weighted first-order local-domain method to setup a chaos prediction model and a CVS safety forecasting and forewarning system formed by the normal change level, orange forewarning level, and red alarm level. We next conduct the on-field application of the system in a coalmine in Jining, Shandong, China. The results showed that (1) in the statistical scale of 5 min, the changes in both air quantity and gas concentration along CVS partition airflow boundaries were characteristic of chaos and could be used for short-term chaos prediction, and the latter was more chaotic than the former;(2) the setup chaos prediction model had a higher prediction precision and the established safety prediction system could not only predict the variation in CVS stability but also reflect the rationality of underground mining intensity. Thus, this CVS safety forecasting and forewarning system is of better application value.

ARMA-GM combined forewarning model for the quality control

Three forecasting models are set up: the auto\|regressive moving average model, the grey forecasting model for the rate of qualified products P t, and the grey forecasting model for time intervals of the quality catastrophes. Then a combined forewarning system for the quality of products is established, which contains three models, judgment rules and forewarning state illustration. Finally with an example of the practical production, this modeling system is proved fairly effective.

Grey forewarning and prediction for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods

Based on the theory of grey system, established GM （1, 1） grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing （not the volume of water inflowing）. After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in 400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis, it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.

A Discussion on Forewarning and Management of Crises to Vocational and Technical School

Some vocational and technical schools, facing every kind of crises, should have scientific forewarning and management methods to resolve these problems. After classifying the crises and analyzing the cause, this paper makes use of the modem-forewarning and management theories to discuss the forewarning and management method of the crises of the vocational and technical school.

Effects of High-temperature Damage on Rice Growth and Its Countermeasures

This study introduced the effects of high-temperature damage on rice and reviewed the damage mechanism, heat damage index and risk assessment, forewarning and monitoring. On the basis of extensive studies, this paper put forward the viewpoints of ascertaining the fundamental mechanism of high temperature damage to rice at the molecular level, establishing a comprehensive heat damage index taking variety, growth stage and other meteorological factors into consideration, selecting appropriate sowing time, choosing heat-resistant varieties and improving the prevention system. All of these are aimed at providing a solid foundation for coping avoiding the harms from heat damage and improving the coping method.

A CUSP CATASTROPHE, PRECURSORS PATTERN AND EVOLUTION PROCESS OF ROCKBUST OF COAL PILLAR UNDER A HARD ROCK SUBJECT TO ELASTIC SUPPORT

The rockburst of the poal pillar under a thick hard roof stratum is modelled as the instability failure problem of coal pillars under strata subject to elastic support. The instability mechanism of rockburst is studied by applying cusp catastrophic theory. The effects of the stiffness ratio of the system and loads imposed on the system on the rockburst are explicated.The factors affecting rockbursts are discussed. Based on them, the evolution process, the forewarning regularity arid forewarning sings of rockbursts are studied. It is indicated that the subsidence velocity of roof stratum, which increases quickly and tends to infinity, is the forewarning measurable signs of the rockbursts of coal pillar.

Model of Risk Forewarn and Investment Decision in Stock Markets and Its Realization

Based on the discussion of characteristic and mechanism of the stock prices volatility in Chinese emerging stock markets, this research designs an index system for risk forewarn, and builds up an investment decision model based on the forewarn of the market risk signal. Then, on probing into the structure and function of the realization of the model, the paper presents the method of data interface.

Design and evaluation of V2X communication system for vehicle and pedestrian safety

As the vehicles gain the extensive popularity and increasing demand, traffic accident is one of the most serious problems faced by modem transportation system. Hereinto, crashes between cars and pedestrians cause plenty of injuries and even death. Diverting attention from walking to smartphones is one of the main reasons for pedestrians getting injured by vehicles. However, the traditional measures protecting pedestrians from the vehicles heavily rely on the sound warning method, which do not capable for pedestrians focusing on the smartphones. As the smartphones become ubiquitous and intelligent, they have the capacity to provide alert for the pedestrians with the help of vehicle-to-pedestrian （V2P） communication. In this paper, an efficient vehicle-to-X （V2X） communication system is designed for the vehicle and pedestrian communication to guarantee the safety of people. It achieves the IEEE 802.11p and the WiFi protocols meanwhile on the on-board unit （OBU） designed for vehicles. Extensive evaluation shows that the OBU can provide the reliable communication for vehicle-to-vehicle （V2V） and V2P in terms of packet delivery rate and average delay. Furthermore, two safety applications have been developed to protect the safety of vehicles and pedestrians based on the data transferred from the OBU. The first application is designed to show the driving information and provide the collision forewaming alert on the tablet within the vehicle. The second application is developed for the smartphone to provide forewarning alert information to the smartphone-distracted vulnerable pedestrians. Smartphone states are appreciable to provide the adaptive alert modes. Experimental results show that these applications are capable of alerting the intersection accidents, and the pedestrians can get the adaptive alerts according to smartphone usage contexts.