Oceans, Ice &Snow and CO2 Rise, Swing and Seasonal Fluctuation

Carbon dioxide rise, swing and spread (seasonal fluctuations) are addressed in this study. Actual CO2 concentrations were used rather than dry values. The dry values are artificially higher because water vapor must be removed in order for the NDIR instrument to work and is not factored back into the reported numbers. Articles addressing these observations express opinions that are divergent and often conflicting. This investigation resolves many of those inconsistencies. The data were obtained from many measuring stations at various latitudes since 1972 and then graphical compared to changes in sea temperatures, fossil fuel emissions, humidity, and seasonal ice and snow changes. In analyzing the data, various parameters were addressed including: variability, R squared curve values, correlations between curves, residence times, absorption percentages, and Troposphere effects. Mass balance calculations were also made to corroborate viability. The CO2 “rise” over a 33-year period from a slight ocean temperature increase (0.7°F) contributed 2.3 percent of the total rise while fossil fuel emissions contributed 1.5 percent. The overwhelming majority (60 ppmv, 96%+) was caused by other factors including ocean and land biology as well potential errors in fundamental hypotheses. With respect to “spread” (seasonal CO2 fluctuations) at the Polar Circles, graphical analysis with high correlations supported by mass balance calculations confirm that ice and snow are the primary cause and explain why the concentrations are the highest at these cold locations. The global variations in “swing” remain uncertain.

Sensitivity of the simulated CO2 concentration to inter-annual variations of its sources and sinks over East Asia

The study on how the variations in CO2 sources and sinks can affect the CO2 concentration over East Asia would be useful to provide information for policymaker concerning carbon emission reduction.In this study,a nested-grid version of global chemical transport model(GEOS-Chem)is employed to assess the impacts of variations in meteorological parameters,terrestrial fluxes,fossil fuel emissions,and biomass burning on inter-annual variations of CO2 concentrations over East Asia in 2004—2012.Simulated CO2 concentrations are compared with observations at 14 surface stations from the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases(WDCGG)and satellite-derived C 02 column density(XCO,)from the Gases Observing SATellite(GOSAT).The comparison shows that the simulated CO2 column density is generally higher than that of GOSAT by 1.33×10^6(annual mean point by point biases averaged over East Asia).The model reasonably captures the temporal variations of CO2 concentrations observed at the ground-based stations,but it is likely to underestimate the peaks-to-troughs amplitude of the seasonal cycle by 50%or more.The simulated surface CO2 concentration in East Asia exhibits the largest inter-annual variation in December-January—February(DJF).The regional mean absolute deviation(MAD)values over East Asia are within(4.4—5.0)×10^-6 for all seasons.Model sensitivity simulations indicate that the inter-annual variations of surface CO2 concentrations are mainly driven by variations of meteorological parameters,and partly modulated by the inter-annual variations of terrestrial fluxes and fossil fuel emissions in local regions.The variations of the terrestrial fluxes and fossil fuel emissions may account for〜28%of the inter-annual variation of surface CO2 concentration in southern China.The inter-annual variations of the peaks-to-troughs amplitude are dependent on variations of meteorological parameters,terrestrial fluxes and fossil fuel emissions in local regions.The influence of biomass burning emissions is relatively weak.