A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the ...A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a "truth" model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.展开更多
Aircraft ground movement plays a key role in improving airport efficiency,as it acts as a link to all other ground operations.Finding novel approaches to coordinate the movements of a fleet of aircraft at an airport i...Aircraft ground movement plays a key role in improving airport efficiency,as it acts as a link to all other ground operations.Finding novel approaches to coordinate the movements of a fleet of aircraft at an airport in order to improve system resilience to disruptions with increasing autonomy is at the center of many key studies for airport airside operations.Moreover,autonomous taxiing is envisioned as a key component in future digitalized airports.However,state-of-the-art routing and scheduling algorithms for airport ground movements do not consider high-fidelity aircraft models at both the proactive and reactive planning phases.The majority of such algorithms do not actively seek to optimize fuel efficiency and reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions.This paper proposes a new approach for generating efficient four-dimensional trajectories(4DTs)on the basis of a high-fidelity aircraft model and gainscheduling control strategy.Working in conjunction with a routing and scheduling algorithm that determines the taxi route,waypoints,and time deadlines,the proposed approach generates fuel-efficient 4DTs in real time,while respecting operational constraints.The proposed approach can be used in two contexts:①as a reactive decision support tool to generate new trajectories that can resolve unprecedented events;and②as an autopilot system for both partial and fully autonomous taxiing.The proposed methodology is realistic and simple to implement.Moreover,simulation studies show that the proposed approach is capable of providing an up to 11%reduction in the fuel consumed during the taxiing of a large Boeing 747-100 jumbo jet.展开更多
Cross-cultural management is often regarded as a discipline of international management focusing on cultural encounters between the organization and the nation-state, and providing tools to tackle cultural difl'erenc...Cross-cultural management is often regarded as a discipline of international management focusing on cultural encounters between the organization and the nation-state, and providing tools to tackle cultural difl'erences seen as sources of conflict, friction or misunderstanding. Based on Greet Hofstede' s Cultural Model, this paper attempts to shed some light on effective corporation management through cultural analysis of the difl'erences between China and western countries. The paper puts more emphasis on the impact of cultural compatibility on effective corporation man- agement through the case study of China, Japan, Germany and America. The author argues that managers and employ- ees involved in companies with diverse cultural backgrounds should be integrated and developed into a specific local context through interlocking their cultural identifications and the organizational practices.展开更多
This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system (4DVAR) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assim...This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system (4DVAR) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme (E4DVAR) benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence: the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.展开更多
Background:Bitcoin,the most innovate digital currency as of now,created since 2008,even through experienced its ups and downs,still keeps drawing attentions to all parts of society.It relies on peer-to-peer network,ac...Background:Bitcoin,the most innovate digital currency as of now,created since 2008,even through experienced its ups and downs,still keeps drawing attentions to all parts of society.It relies on peer-to-peer network,achieved decentralization,anonymous and transparent.As the most representative digital currency,people curious to study how Bitcoin’price changes in the past.Methods:In this paper,we use monthly data from 2011 to 2016 to build a VEC model to exam how economic factors such as Custom price index,US dollar index,Dow jones industry average,Federal Funds Rate and gold price influence Bitcoin price.Result:From empirical analysis we find that all these variables do have a long-term influence.US dollar index is the biggest influence on Bitcoin price while gold price influence the least.Conclusion:From our result,we conclude that for now Bitcoin can be treated as a speculative asset,however,it is far from being a proper credit currency.展开更多
Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the ru...Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007.Chows breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product.Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product.Rural labor force flow,as an exogenous force,affects the agricultural production,and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products.Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong,then grows gradually weaker,and reaches its peak value at the year 1998.With the development of rural society and economy and the market process,rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product,which has periodic characteristics.In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products,the following countermeasures are put forward:vigorously developing vocational education,increasing the support for agricultural production,and making active employment measures.展开更多
By establishing the VEC model, the relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) is explored by using Johansen cointegration test and impulse response function. The results show that t...By establishing the VEC model, the relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) is explored by using Johansen cointegration test and impulse response function. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between CPI and PPI. CPI has a certain impact on PPI. PPI also has a certain impact on CPI. PPI has a great impact on itself both in the long-term and short-term. The current CPI will be adversely affected by the previous CPI and the positive impact of the previous PPI. The current PPI will be positively affected by the previous phase of CPI and the previous phase of PPI.展开更多
Based on the data related to the Chinese and world agricultural production and trade from 1986 to 2011,this paper uses the principal component analysis,cointegration and vector error correction model to perform the em...Based on the data related to the Chinese and world agricultural production and trade from 1986 to 2011,this paper uses the principal component analysis,cointegration and vector error correction model to perform the empirical analysis of the impact of processing,import and export of agricultural products on the agricultural modernization in China. The results show that the processing and export of agricultural products play a role in promoting the agricultural modernization in China,while the import of agricultural products has some negative effects on the agricultural modernization in China. The negative effects of the import of agricultural products are from the limitations of farmers' small-scale operation and foreign trading partners' protectionism. China should further develop the processing industry of agricultural products,and strengthen the role of downstream industries in promoting the agricultural modernization; improve the level of large-scale and intensive operation,and make good use of WTO rules,in order to provide the necessary market conditions for the agricultural modernization.展开更多
We select the per capita gross domestic product and rural residents' per capita net income in Xinjiang as the indicator variables to measure economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang, respective...We select the per capita gross domestic product and rural residents' per capita net income in Xinjiang as the indicator variables to measure economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang, respectively. We establish the cointegration equation, the vector error correction (VEC) model, and use the impulse response function to conduct empirical analysis of the evolutive law concerning relationship between economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang during the period 1978-2010. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth in Xinjiang and farmers' income increase; the former plays an important role in promoting the latter, following the evolutive law "first intensify, then abate, intensify again, and finally become stable". We put the following policy recommendations: providing preferential policies for farmers, scientifically and rationally guiding the transfer of rural labor; improving the function of agriculture, increasing the proportion of non-farm income; gradually bridging the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, coordinating urban and rural development.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41490644,41475101 and 41421005)the CAS Strategic Priority Project(the Western Pacific Ocean System+2 种基金Project Nos.XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(Grant No.U1406401)the NSFC Innovative Group Grant(Project No.41421005)
文摘A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a "truth" model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.
基金This work was funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council(EP/N029496/1,EP/N029496/2,EP/N029356/1,EP/N029577/1,and EP/N029577/2).
文摘Aircraft ground movement plays a key role in improving airport efficiency,as it acts as a link to all other ground operations.Finding novel approaches to coordinate the movements of a fleet of aircraft at an airport in order to improve system resilience to disruptions with increasing autonomy is at the center of many key studies for airport airside operations.Moreover,autonomous taxiing is envisioned as a key component in future digitalized airports.However,state-of-the-art routing and scheduling algorithms for airport ground movements do not consider high-fidelity aircraft models at both the proactive and reactive planning phases.The majority of such algorithms do not actively seek to optimize fuel efficiency and reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions.This paper proposes a new approach for generating efficient four-dimensional trajectories(4DTs)on the basis of a high-fidelity aircraft model and gainscheduling control strategy.Working in conjunction with a routing and scheduling algorithm that determines the taxi route,waypoints,and time deadlines,the proposed approach generates fuel-efficient 4DTs in real time,while respecting operational constraints.The proposed approach can be used in two contexts:①as a reactive decision support tool to generate new trajectories that can resolve unprecedented events;and②as an autopilot system for both partial and fully autonomous taxiing.The proposed methodology is realistic and simple to implement.Moreover,simulation studies show that the proposed approach is capable of providing an up to 11%reduction in the fuel consumed during the taxiing of a large Boeing 747-100 jumbo jet.
文摘Cross-cultural management is often regarded as a discipline of international management focusing on cultural encounters between the organization and the nation-state, and providing tools to tackle cultural difl'erences seen as sources of conflict, friction or misunderstanding. Based on Greet Hofstede' s Cultural Model, this paper attempts to shed some light on effective corporation management through cultural analysis of the difl'erences between China and western countries. The paper puts more emphasis on the impact of cultural compatibility on effective corporation man- agement through the case study of China, Japan, Germany and America. The author argues that managers and employ- ees involved in companies with diverse cultural backgrounds should be integrated and developed into a specific local context through interlocking their cultural identifications and the organizational practices.
基金sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant No.ATM0205599)the U.S. Offce of Navy Research under Grant N000140410471Dr. James A. Hansen was partially supported by US Offce of Naval Research (Grant No. N00014-06-1-0500)
文摘This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system (4DVAR) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme (E4DVAR) benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence: the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.
基金This work was supported by the Key Plan of National Social Science Foundation of China under the Grant 14ZDA044.
文摘Background:Bitcoin,the most innovate digital currency as of now,created since 2008,even through experienced its ups and downs,still keeps drawing attentions to all parts of society.It relies on peer-to-peer network,achieved decentralization,anonymous and transparent.As the most representative digital currency,people curious to study how Bitcoin’price changes in the past.Methods:In this paper,we use monthly data from 2011 to 2016 to build a VEC model to exam how economic factors such as Custom price index,US dollar index,Dow jones industry average,Federal Funds Rate and gold price influence Bitcoin price.Result:From empirical analysis we find that all these variables do have a long-term influence.US dollar index is the biggest influence on Bitcoin price while gold price influence the least.Conclusion:From our result,we conclude that for now Bitcoin can be treated as a speculative asset,however,it is far from being a proper credit currency.
文摘Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007.Chows breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product.Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product.Rural labor force flow,as an exogenous force,affects the agricultural production,and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products.Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong,then grows gradually weaker,and reaches its peak value at the year 1998.With the development of rural society and economy and the market process,rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product,which has periodic characteristics.In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products,the following countermeasures are put forward:vigorously developing vocational education,increasing the support for agricultural production,and making active employment measures.
文摘By establishing the VEC model, the relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) is explored by using Johansen cointegration test and impulse response function. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between CPI and PPI. CPI has a certain impact on PPI. PPI also has a certain impact on CPI. PPI has a great impact on itself both in the long-term and short-term. The current CPI will be adversely affected by the previous CPI and the positive impact of the previous PPI. The current PPI will be positively affected by the previous phase of CPI and the previous phase of PPI.
基金Supported by Business Management Discipline Cultivation Project of Rongchang Campus of Southwest University(RCQG207001)
文摘Based on the data related to the Chinese and world agricultural production and trade from 1986 to 2011,this paper uses the principal component analysis,cointegration and vector error correction model to perform the empirical analysis of the impact of processing,import and export of agricultural products on the agricultural modernization in China. The results show that the processing and export of agricultural products play a role in promoting the agricultural modernization in China,while the import of agricultural products has some negative effects on the agricultural modernization in China. The negative effects of the import of agricultural products are from the limitations of farmers' small-scale operation and foreign trading partners' protectionism. China should further develop the processing industry of agricultural products,and strengthen the role of downstream industries in promoting the agricultural modernization; improve the level of large-scale and intensive operation,and make good use of WTO rules,in order to provide the necessary market conditions for the agricultural modernization.
基金Supported by Soft Science Project of Science and Technology Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (200942140)
文摘We select the per capita gross domestic product and rural residents' per capita net income in Xinjiang as the indicator variables to measure economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang, respectively. We establish the cointegration equation, the vector error correction (VEC) model, and use the impulse response function to conduct empirical analysis of the evolutive law concerning relationship between economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang during the period 1978-2010. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth in Xinjiang and farmers' income increase; the former plays an important role in promoting the latter, following the evolutive law "first intensify, then abate, intensify again, and finally become stable". We put the following policy recommendations: providing preferential policies for farmers, scientifically and rationally guiding the transfer of rural labor; improving the function of agriculture, increasing the proportion of non-farm income; gradually bridging the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, coordinating urban and rural development.