Roles of Upper-Level Descending Inflow in Moat Development in Simulated Tropical Cyclones with Secondary Eyewall Formation

This study investigated the effects of upper-level descending inflow(ULDI)associated with inner-eyewall convection on the formation of the moat in tropical cyclones(TCs)with secondary eyewall formation(SEF).In our numerical experiments,a clear moat with SEF occurred in TCs with a significant ULDI,while no SEF occurred in TCs without a significant ULDI.The eyewall convection developed more vigorously in the control run.A ULDI occurred outside the inner-eyewall convection,where it was symmetrically unstable.The ULDI was initially triggered by the diabatic warming released by the inner eyewall and later enhanced by the cooling below the anvil cloud.The ULDI penetrated the outer edge of the inner eyewall with relatively dry air and prevented excessive solid-phase hydrometeors from being advected further outward.It produced extensive sublimation cooling of falling hydrometeors between the eyewall and the outer convection.The sublimation cooling resulted in negative buoyancy and further induced strong subsidence between the eyewall and the outer convection.As a result,a clear moat was generated.Development of the moat in the ongoing SEF prevented the outer rainband from moving farther inward,helping the outer rainband to symmetrize into an outer eyewall.In the sensitivity experiment,no significant ULDI formed since the eyewall convection was weaker,and the eyewall anvil developed relatively lower,meaning the formation of a moat and thus an outer eyewall was less likely.This study suggests that a better-represented simulation of inner-eyewall convective structures and distribution of the solid-phase hydrometeors is important to the prediction of SEF.

Prediction of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity in the NUIST-CFS1.0 Forecast System

Prediction skill for the seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)activity in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated using the coupled climate forecast system(version 1.0)of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUISTCFS1.0).This assessment is based on the seven-month(May to November)hindcasts consisting of nine ensemble members during 1982–2019.The predictions are compared with the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis and observed tropical storms in the Northern Hemisphere.The results show that the overall distributions of the TC genesis and track densities in model hindcasts agree well with the observations,although the seasonal mean TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)are underestimated in all basins due to the low resolution(T106)of the atmospheric component in the model.NUIST-CFS1.0 closely predicts the interannual variations of TC frequency and ACE in the North Atlantic(NA)and eastern North Pacific(ENP),which have a good relationship with indexes based on the sea surface temperature.In the western North Pacific(WNP),NUIST-CFS1.0 can closely capture ACE,which is significantly correlated with the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),while it has difficulty forecasting the interannual variation of TC frequency in this area.When the WNP is further divided into eastern and western subregions,the model displays improved TC activity forecasting ability.Additionally,it is found that biases in predicted TC genesis locations lead to inaccurately represented TC–environment relationships,which may affect the capability of the model in reproducing the interannual variations of TC activity.

The Relationship Between Indian Ocean SST and Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over North Indian Ocean in May

Tropical cyclone(TC)activities in the North Indian Ocean(NIO)peak in May during the pre-monsoon period,but the TC frequency shows obvious inter-annual variations.By conducting statistical analysis and dynamic diagnosis of long-term data from 1948 to 2016,the relationship between the inter-annual variations of Indian Ocean SST and NIO TC genesis frequency in May is analyzed in this paper.Furthermore,the potential mechanism concerning the effect of SST anomaly on TC frequency is also investigated.The findings are as follows:1)there is a broadly consistent negative correlation between NIO TC frequency in May and SST in the Indian Ocean from March to May,with the key influencing area located in the southwestern Indian Ocean(SWIO);2)the anomalies of SST in SWIO(SWIO-SST)are closely related to a teleconnection pattern surrounding the Indian Ocean,which can significantly modulate the high-level divergence,mid-level vertical motion and other related environmental factors and ultimately influence the formation of TCs over the NIO;3)the increasing trend of SWIO-SST may play an essential role in the downward trend of NIO TC frequency over the past 69 years.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones and Storms over the Southwestern Indian Ocean Region Using the Generalized Linear Models

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.

Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on Tropical Cyclone Activity over Western North Pacific in Boreal Autumn

In this study, we investigated the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) during autumn (September November) from 1961 2015. We found the number of TCs making landfall in China to be significantly negatively correlated with the IOD index, which can be attributed to shifts in the location of TC formation together with the abnormal steering flow at 500 hPa. During negative IOD autumns, TC genesis regions move obviously westward due to the westward retreat of the WNP monsoon trough. The TC activity is remarkably enhanced near South China coastal areas, which is due to a contiguous 500-hPa subtropical ridge. In contrast, during positive IOD autumns, TC genesis positions obviously shift eastward and more TCs tend to exhibit recurvature around 130 E or a westward path south of 15 N led by an equatorward movement of the 500-hPa subtropical ridge with a break near 125 E. In our examination of large-scale circula- tion, we found a pair of equator-symmetric anticyclones in the lower troposphere resulting from variations in the large-scale Walker circulation induced by the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) associated with a positive IOD. The resulting Philippines anti- cyclonic anomalies are closely related to the variability of the monsoon trough over the WNP region. Furthermore, the variations in the steering flow can be explained by the suppressed (enhanced) convective activities around the Philippines and the weakened (strengthened) local meridional circulation over East Asia in positive (negative) IOD years.

IMPACT OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING SUMMER MONSOON

The intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) of the South China Sea(SCS, 105-120°E, 5-20°N) convection and its influences on the genesis and track of the western North Pacific(WNP) tropical cyclones(TCs) were explored, based on the daily average of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the OLR data and the western North Pacific tropical cyclone best-track data from 1979 to 2008. The mechanism of the influences of ISO on TC movement and the corresponding large-scale circulation were discussed by a trajectory model. It was found as follows.(1) During the SCS summer monsoon, the SCS convection exhibits the ISO features with active phases alternating with inactive phases. The monsoon circulation patterns are significantly different during these two phases. When the SCS convection is active(inactive), the SCS-WNP monsoon trough stretches eastward(retreats westward) due to the activity(inactivity) of SCS monsoon, and the WNP subtropical high retreats eastward(stretches westward), which enhances(suppresses) the monsoon circulation.(2) The amount of TC genesis in the active phase is much more than that in the inactive phase. A majority of TCs form west of 135 °E during the active phases but east of 135 °E in the inactive phases.(3) The TCs entering the area west of 135 °E and south of 25 °N would move straight into the SCS in the active phase, or recurve northward in the inactive phase.(4) Simulation results show that the steering flow associated with the active(inactive)phases is in favor of straight-moving(recurving) TCs. Meanwhile, the impacts of the locations of TC genesis on the characteristics of TC track cannot be ignored. TCs that occurred father westward are more likely to move straight into the SCS region.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Northwestern Pacific Through the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation

The quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode for circulation over the Northwestern Pacific(WNP)during boreal summer.In this study,we investigated how the QBWO modulates tropical cyclone(TC)activities over the WNP from dynamic and thermodynamic perspectives.The propagation of the QBWO can be divided into four phases through empirical orthogonal function analysis of the vorticity at 850 hPa,which was proven to be effective in extracting the QBWO signal.TC generation and landings are significantly enhanced during the active period(phases 1 and 2)relative to the inactive period(phases 3 and 4).Composite analyses show the QBWO could significantly modulate TC activity as it propagates northwestward by changing the atmospheric circulation at both high and low levels.Cumulus convection provides an important link between TCs and the QBWO.The major component of the atmosphere heat source is found to be the latent heat release of convection.The condensation latent heat centers,vertical circulation,and water vapor flux divergence cooperate well during different phases of the QBWO.The vertical profile of the condensation latent heat indicates upper-level heating(cooling)during the active(inactive)phases of the QBWO.Thus,the northwestward propagation of the QBWO can modulate TC activity by affecting the configuration of atmospheric heating over the WNP.

Identification and Analysis of High-Frequency Oscillations in the Eyewalls of Tropical Cyclones

High-frequency oscillations, with periods of about 2 hours, are first identified by applying wavelet analysis to observed minutely wind speeds around the eye and eyewall of tropical cyclones（TCs）. Analysis of a model simulation of Typhoon Hagupit（2008） shows that the oscillations also occur in the TC intensity, vertical motion, convergence activity and air density around the eyewall. Sequences of oscillations in these variables follow a certain order.

Impact of the Western Pacific Tropical Easterly Jet on Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific

Although it is well known that the tropical easterly jet(TEJ)has a significant impact on summer weather and climate over India and Africa,whether the TEJ exerts an important impact on tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)remains unknown.In this study,we examined the impact of the TEJ on the interannual variability of TC genesis frequency over the WNP in the TC season(June-September)during 1980-2020.The results show a significant positive correlation between TC genesis frequency over the WNP and the jet intensity in the entrance region of the TEJ over the tropical western Pacific(in brief WP_TEJ),with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.66.The intensified WP_TEJ results in strong ageostrophic northerly winds in the entrance region and thus upper-level divergence to the north of the jet axis over the main TC genesis region in the WNP.This would lead to an increase in upward motion in the troposphere with enhanced low-level convergence,which are the most important factors to the increases in low-level vorticity,mid-level humidity and low-level eddy kinetic energy,and the decreases in sea level pressure and vertical wind shear in the region.All these changes are favorable for TC genesis over the WNP and vice versa.Further analyses indicate that the interannual variability of the WP_TEJ intensity is likely to be linked to the local diabatic heating over the Indian Ocean-western Pacific and the central Pacific El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation.

OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES “CHANCHU” AND “PRAPIROON” MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CHINA COAST

Observational data of mesoscale surface weather stations and weather radars of Guangdong province are employed to analyze the asymmetric distribution of convection prior to, during and after landfall for tropical cyclones of Chanchu and Prapiroon making landfall on the south China coast in 2006. The results showed that strong convection is located in the eastern and northern sectors of the landfalling Chanchu and Prapiroon, namely in the front and right portions of the TC tracks, for a period of time starting from 12 h prior to landfall to 6 h after it. Their convection also had distinct differences in the vertical direction. The analysis indicated that although the landfall of Chanchu and Prapiroon has the same asymmetric distribution of convection, the causes are not exactly the same. The asymmetric distribution of convection in the case of Chanchu is mainly correlated with the impacts of a strong environmental vertical wind shear, low-level horizontal wind shear, and low-level convergence and divergence. In the case of Prapiroon, however, the asymmetric distribution of convection is mainly associated with the impacts of low-level convergence and divergence.

Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC

Tropical cyclone(TC)annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province.Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature(SST)V5 data in winter,the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied.During 1951-2019,353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1.TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late 1980 with a slightly decreasing trend and a normal distribution.338 primary precursors are obtained from statistically significant correlation regions of SST,sea level pressure,1000hPa air temperature,850hPa specific humidity,500hPa geopotential height and zonal wind shear in winter.Then those 338 primary factors are reduced into 19 independent predictors by principal component analysis(PCA).Furthermore,the Multiple Linear Regression(MLR),the Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)and the Long Short-term Memory Networks and Fully Connected Layers(LSTM-FC)models are constructed relying on the above 19 factors.For three different kinds of test sets from 2010 to 2019,2011 to 2019 and 2010 to 2019,the root mean square errors(RMSEs)of MLR,GPR and LSTM-FC between prediction and observations fluctuate within the range of 1.05-2.45,1.00-1.93 and 0.71-0.95 as well as the average absolute errors(AAEs)0.88-1.0,0.75-1.36 and 0.50-0.70,respectively.As for the 2010-2019 experiment,the mean deviations of the three model outputs from the observation are 0.89,0.78 and 0.56,together with the average evaluation scores 82.22,84.44 and 88.89,separately.The prediction skill comparisons unveil that LSTM-FC model has a better performance than MLR and GPR.In conclusion,the deep learning model of LSTM-FC may shed light on improving the accuracy of short-term climate prediction about TC frequency.The current research can provide experience on the development of deep learning in this field and help to achieve further progress of TC disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province.

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones （TCs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m （MWS10） from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea （SCS）; however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS （1.93 h） is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP （2.83 h）. The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit （2008）. The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.

Frequency–magnitude of landslides affected by the 27–29 November 2017 Tropical Cyclone Cempaka in Pacitan, East Java

Tropical cyclone(TC) Cempaka which occurred on 27–29 November 2017 has caused floods, landslides, and strong winds in certain areas of Java Island. Pacitan Regency was the most severely affected by TC Cempaka. The landslide frequency–area distribution curve of event inventory i.e. TC Cempaka can help to understand landslide susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability, and risk. Landslides were identified by using a local government database and by comparing pre-and post-event high-resolution satellite imageries. Field investigation was carried out in March 2018 to November 2018 to verify the landslide location and update the information. Power law, inverse gamma, and double Pareto model were employed to describe the frequency–magnitude of landslide(mLS) triggered by TC Cempaka. The exponent β values of power law, inverse gamma, and double Pareto were 2.6±0.28(fitted for 8.5% of dataset), 2.2±0.08(fitted for 83% of dataset), and 2.3±0.09(best fitted for dataset), respectively. The P-values were 0.51, 0.67, and 0.91 for power law, inverse gamma, and double Pareto, respectively. This study revealed that rollover occurred at 200 and 300 m2 for double Pareto and inverse gamma, respectively. The cutoff points totaled 1096.49 ± 236.44 and 7235.4 ± 1896.7 m2 for double Pareto and power law, respectively. Rollover phenomenon was real and existed in the dataset because it was far from the minimum resolvable size of the landslide that the authors can delineate from the satellite images. mLS for Pacitan was distributed at around 2 to 4. The magnitude of large landslides was 3.2, that of medium landslides was less than 3, and that of small landslides was almost 4. Numerical estimation calculated a fixed mLS=3.01. Comparison analysis of β values obtained from several landslide inventories triggered by heavy rainfall suggests that the variability of β is related to the intensity and duration of rainfall. Triggering events, such as intensity and duration of rainfall, affect the proportion of large landslides that occur in an area. More complete landslide inventories and rainfall data or other landslide triggering factors from other areas are required for further relationship analysis between the β value and landslide triggering factors.

Environmental Conditions Determining the Timing of the Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific and Their Frequency of Occurrence

Environmental conditions determining the timing of the lifetime maximum intensities of tropical cyclones(TCs)are investigated for the TCs over the western North Pacific during the period 2008-2017.The results show that the land controls the timings of the lifetime maximum intensities in 42% of the TCs over this basin,indicating that accurate track forecasts are beneficial for TC intensity forecasts.With respect to other TCs that are not affected by the land(i.e.,Ocean-TCs),the timings of their lifetime maximum intensities are determined by multiple oceanic factors.In particular,interactions between TCs and cold-core eddies occur in a large proportion(nearly 60%)of Ocean-TCs at or shortly after the times of their lifetime maximum intensities,especially in strong TCs(categories 4 and 5),suggesting that a consideration of the above interactions is necessary for improving TC intensity forecasting skills.In addition,unfavorable oceanic heat content conditions become common as the latitude increases over 25°N,influencing half of the Ocean-TCs.Strong vertical wind shear contributes detrimentally to the atmospheric environment in 17% of the TCs over this basin,especially in moderate and weak TCs.In contrast,neither the maximum potential intensity nor the humidity in the middle level of the atmosphere plays dominant roles when TCs turn from their peak intensities to weakening.

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ZONAL WIND ANOMALIES IN HIGH AND LOW TROPOSPHERE AND ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF NW PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition. It is indicated that whenΔU200-ΔU850 >0 in the eastern tropical Pacific andΔU200-ΔU850 <0 in western tropical Pacific, the Walker cell is stronger in the Pacific tropical region and the annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclone are above normal. In the years with zonal wind anomalies, the circulation of high and low troposphere and the vertical motions in the troposphere have significant characteristics. In the time scale of short-range climate prediction, zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere are useful as a preliminary signal of the annual frequency prediction of NW Pacific tropical cyclones.

Impact of Mid-and Upper-Level Dry Air on Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Intensification:A Modeling Study of Durian(2001)

The impact of mid-and upper-level dry air,represented by low relative humidity(RH)values,on the genesis of tropical cyclone(TC)Durian(2001)in the South China Sea was investigated by a series of numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.The mid-level RH was lowered in different regions relative to TC Durian(2001)’s genesis location.Results suggest that the location of dry air was important to Durian(2001)’s genesis and intensification.The rapid development of the TC was accompanied by sustained near-saturated mid-and upper-level air,whereas low humidity decelerated its development.Water vapor budget analysis showed that moisture at mid and upper levels was mainly supplied by the vertical convergence of moisture flux and the divergence terms,and consumed by the condensation process.The horizontal convergence of moisture flux term supplied moisture in the air moistening process but consumed moisture in the air drying process.With a dryer mid-and upper-level environment,convective and stratiform precipitation were both inhibited.The upward mass fluxes and the diabatic heating rates associated with these two precipitation types were also suppressed.Generally,convection played the dominant role,since the impact of the stratiform process on vertical mass transportation and diabatic heating was much weaker.The vorticity budget showed that the negative vorticity convergence term,which was closely related to the inhibited convection,caused the vorticity to decrease above the lower troposphere in a dryer environment.The negative vorticity tendency is suggested to slow down the vertical coherence and the development rate of TCs.

EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

In this study,the effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)on the intensification of tropical cyclone(TC)is investigated via the numerical simulations.Results indicate that weak shear tends to facilitate the development of TC while strong shear appears to inhibit the intensification of TC.As the VWS is imposed on the TC,the vortex of the cyclone tends to tilt vertically and significantly in the upper troposphere.Consequently,the upward motion is considerably enhanced in the downshear side of the storm center and correspondingly,the low-to mid-level potential temperature decreases under the effect of adiabatic cooling,which leads to the increase of the low-to mid-level static instability and relative humidity and then facilitates the burst of convection.In the case of weak shear,the vertical tilting of the vortex is weak and the increase of ascent,static instability and relative humidity occur in the area close to the TC center.Therefore,active convection happens in the TC center region and facilitates the enhancement of vorticity in the inner core region and then the intensification of TC.In contrast,due to strong VWS,the increase of the ascent,static instability and relative humidity induced by the vertical tilting mainly appear in the outer region of TC in the case with stronger shear,and the convection in the inner-core area of TC is rather weak and convective activity mainly happens in the outer-region of the TC.Therefore,the development of a warm core is inhibited and then the intensification of TC is delayed.Different from previous numerical results obtained by imposing VWS suddenly to a strong TC,the simulation performed in this work shows that,even when the VWS is as strong as 12 m s-1,the tropical storm can still experience rapid intensification and finally develop into a strong tropical cyclone after a relatively long period of adjustment.It is found that the convection plays an important role in the adjusting period.On one hand,the convection leads to the horizontal convergence of the low-level vorticity flux and therefore leads to the enhancement of the low-level vorticity in the inner-core area of the cyclone.On the other hand,the active ascent accompanying the convection tends to transport the low-level vorticity to the middle levels.The enhanced vorticity in the lower to middle troposphere strengths the interaction between the low-and mid-level cyclonical circulation and the upper-level circulation deviated from the storm center under the effect of VWS.As a result,the vertical tilting of the vortex is considerably decreased,and then the cyclone starts to develop rapidly.

The Potential Impacts of Warmer-Continent-Related Lower-Layer Equatorial Westerly Wind on Tropical Cyclone Initiation

Global climate models predict that the increasing Amazoniandeforestation rates cause rising tempera tures （increases of 1.8℃ to 8℃ under different conditions） and Amazonian drying over the 21st century. Observations in the 20th century also show that over the warmer continent and the nearby western South At lantic Ocean, the lowerlayer equatorial westerly wind （LLEWW） strengthens with the initiation of tropical cyclones （TCs）. The warmercontinentrelated LLEWW can result from the Coriolisforceinduced deflection of the crossequatorial flow （similar to the wellknown heatisland effect on sea breeze） driven by the enhanced landsea contrast between the warmer urbanized continents and relatively cold oceans. This study focuses on the processes relating the warmercontinentrelated LLEWW to the TC initiation and demonstrates that the LLEWW embedded in trade easterlies can directly initiate TCs by creating cyclonic wind shears and forming the intertropical convergence zone. In addition to this direct effect, the LLEWW combined with the rotating Earth can boost additional updraft vapor over the high seasurface temperature region （factor 1）, facilitating a surfacetomidtroposphere moist layer （factor 2） and convective instability （factor 3） followed by diabatic processes. According to previous studies, the diabatic heating in a finite equatorial region also activates TCs （factor 4） on each side of the Equator with weak vertical shear （factor 5）. Factors 1–5 are favorable conditions for the initiation of severe TCs. Statistical analyses show that the earliest signal of sustained LLEWW not only leads the earliest signal of sustained tropical depression by 3 days but also explains a higher percentage of total variance.

Influences of Tropical Cyclones on China During 1965-2004

Using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） and China Meteorological Administration （CMA） tropical cyclone track datasets, variations in frequency and intensity of the affecting-China tropical cyclones （ACTCs） are studied for the period of 1965-2004. First, the differences between the two tropical cyclone datasets are examined. The annual frequencies of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin are reasonably consistent to each other, while the intensity records are less reliable. The annual numbers of ACTCs based on different datasets are close to each other with similar interdecadal and interannual variations. However, the maximum intensity and the annual frequency of ACTCs for strong categories show great dependence on datasets. Tropical cyclone impacts on China show the same variations as the annual number of ACTCs and also show dependence on datasets. Differences in tropical cyclone impacts on China are mainly caused by datasets used. The annual frequency of ACTCs, especially the length of lifetime of ones that make landfall, and the intensity estimates all have effects on the value of impacts on China.

Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming

As revealed by the observational study, there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from the early 1950s to the early 1970s in the 20th century and less tropical cyclones from the mid-1970s to the present. The decadal change of ＂tropical cyclones activities are closely related to the decadal changes of atmospheric general circulation in the troposphere, which provide favorable or unfavorable conditions for the formation of tropical cyclone. Furthermore, based on the simulation of corresponding atmospheric general circulation from a coupled climate model under the schemes of Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）,special report on emission scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2 emissions scenarios an outlook on the tropical cyclone frequency generated over the western North Pacific in the coming half century is presented. It is indicated that in response to the global climate change the general circulation of atmosphere would become unfavorable for the formation of tropical cyclone as a whole and the frequency of tropical cyclones formation would likely decrease by 5% within the next half century, although more tropical cyclones would appear during a short period in it.