Regional Frequency Analysis of Observed Sub-Daily Rainfall Maxima over Eastern China

Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960-2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima （AM） sub-daily rainfall series （1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach） for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions： Northeast （NE1, NE2）, Central （C）, Central North （CN1, CN2）, Central East （CE1, CE2, CE3）, Southeast （SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4）, and Southwest （SW）. The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80-270 mm （1-h to 24-h rainfall） and 108-390 mm （1-h to 24-h rainfall） for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37-104 mm and 53-140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1-24-h rainfall varied from -3-4 mm to -23-11 mm （- 10%-10%） for 20-yr events, reaching -6-26 mm （-10%-30%） and -10-133 mm （-10%-90%） for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.

Regional Frequency Analysis of Significant Wave Heights Based onL-moments

L-moments are defined as linear combinations of probability-weighted moments, They are, virtually unbiased for small samples, and perform well in parameter estimation, choice of the distribution type and regional analysis. The traditional methods of determining the design wave heights for planning marine structures use data only from the site of interest. Regional frequency analysis gives a new approach to estimate quantile by use of the homogeneous neighborhood informatian. A regional frequency analysis based on L-moments with a case study of the California coast is presented. The significant wave height data for the California coast is offered by NDBC. A 6-site region without 46023 is considered to be a homogeneous region, whose optimal regional distribution is Pearson Ⅲ. The test is conducted by a simulation process. The regional quantile is compared with the at-site quantile, and it is shown that efficient neighborhood information can be used via regional frequency analysis to give a reasonable estimation of the site without enough historical data.

Accounting for the Effects of Climate Variability in Regional Flood Frequency Estimates in Western Nigeria

Extreme flood events are becoming more frequent and intense in recent times, owing to climate change and other anthropogenic factors. Nigeria, the case-study for this research experiences recurrent flooding, with the most disastrous being the 2012 flood event that resulted in unprecedented damage to infrastructure, displacement of people, socio-economic disruption, and loss of lives. To mitigate and minimize the impact of such floods now and in the future, effective planning is required, underpinned by analytics based on reliable data and information. Such data are seldom available in many developing regions, owing to financial, technical, and organizational drawbacks that result in short-length and inadequate historical data that are prone to uncertainties if directly applied for flood frequency estimation. This study applies regional Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) to curtail deficiencies in historical data, by agglomerating data from various sites with similar hydro-geomorphological characteristics and is governed by a similar probability distribution, differing only by an “index-flood”;as well as accounting for climate variability effect. Data from 17 gauging stations within the Ogun-Osun River Basin in Western Nigeria were analysed, resulting in the delineation of 3 sub-regions, of which 2 were homogeneous and 1 heterogeneous. The Generalized Logistic distribution was fitted to the annual maximum flood series for the 2 homogeneous regions to estimate flood magnitudes and the probability of occurrence while accounting for climate variability. The influence of climate variability on flood estimates in the region was linked to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) climate indices and resulted in increased flood magnitude for regional and direct flood frequency estimates varying from 0% - 35% and demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in atmospheric conditions influence both small and large floods. The results reveal the value of considering climate variability for flood frequency analysis, especially when non-stationarity is established by homogeneity analysis.

Detection of the Kuroshio frontal instable processes (KFIP) in the East China Sea using the MODIS images

The Kuroshio frontal instable processes （KFIP） in the East China Sea （ECS） not only have a great impact on the hydrologic characteristics,the pollutants drift,the distribution of seafloor sediment and the ships navigation of the ECS,but also are closely related to the climate changes of the coastal areas of the ECS.However the frequency and area of occurrence of the KFIP have not been studied fully and detailedly.Because of its high spatial and temporal resolution,MODIS data is a kind of very good data source for surveying and researching the KFIP in the ECS.The aim of this study is to detect the KFIP in the ECS by using MODIS data,and to study the frequency and region of occurrence of the KFIP in the ECS.The selection has coverage of level 2 data of MODIS SST and Kd490 ranging from July 1,2002 to June 30,2009 of the ECS when there was no cloud impact or little.By using of the data,the minimum standard of the Kuroshio temperature fronts and the diffuse attenuation coefficient （Kd490） fronts of the ECS are given.Based on these standards and the curvature distinguish methods,the standard of curvature distinguish for the KFIP in the ECS are put forward.By making use of this standard,we study a total of 2073 satellite-derived images,and discover that as long as there is no cloud impact from January to May and October to December,the KFIP in the ECS are surely found in MODIS satellite images.From June to September,the frequency of occurrence can also reach to 82.9% at least.Moreover,it is obtained that there are three source regions of these instability processes,namely,（26°N,121.5°E） nearby,（27°N,125°E） nearby and （30°N,128°E） nearby.The differences of the characteristics of these instability processes which are generated in different regions are analyzed in the present study.

Chaotic motions of the L-mode to H-mode transition model in tokamak

The chaotic dynamics of the transport equation for the L-mode to H-mode near the plasma in a tokamak is studied in detail with the Melnikov method. The transport equations represent a system with external and parametric excitation. The critical curves separating the chaotic regions and nonchaotic regions are presented for the system with periodically external excitation and linear parametric excitation, or cubic parametric excitation, respectively. The results obtained here show that there exist uncontrollable regions in which chaos always take place via heteroclinic bifurcation for the system with linear or cubic parametric excitation. Especially, there exists a controllable frequency, excited at which chaos does not occur via homoclinic bifurcation no matter how large the excitation amplitude is for the system with cubic parametric excitation. Some complicated dynamical behaviors are obtained for this class of systems.