Energy Price Forecasting Through Novel Fuzzy Type-1 Membership Functions

Electricity price forecasting is a subset of energy and power forecasting that focuses on projecting commercial electricity market present and future prices.Electricity price forecasting have been a critical input to energy corporations’strategic decision-making systems over the last 15 years.Many strategies have been utilized for price forecasting in the past,however Artificial Intelligence Techniques(Fuzzy Logic and ANN)have proven to be more efficient than traditional techniques(Regression and Time Series).Fuzzy logic is an approach that uses membership functions(MF)and fuzzy inference model to forecast future electricity prices.Fuzzy c-means(FCM)is one of the popular clustering approach for generating fuzzy membership functions.However,the fuzzy c-means algorithm is limited to producing only one type of MFs,Gaussian MF.The generation of various fuzzy membership functions is critical since it allows for more efficient and optimal problem solutions.As a result,for the best and most improved results for electricity price forecasting,an approach to generate multiple type-1 fuzzy MFs using FCM algorithm is required.Therefore,the objective of this paper is to propose an approach for generating type-1 fuzzy triangular and trapezoidal MFs using FCM algorithm to overcome the limitations of the FCM algorithm.The approach is used to compute and improve forecasting accuracy for electricity prices,where Australian Energy Market Operator(AEMO)data is used.The results show that the proposed approach of using FCM to generate type-1 fuzzy MFs is effective and can be adopted.

RBF neural network regression model based on fuzzy observations

A fuzzy observations-based radial basis function neural network （FORBFNN） is presented for modeling nonlinear systems in which the observations of response are imprecise but can be represented as fuzzy membership functions. In the FORBFNN model, the weight coefficients of nodes in the hidden layer are identified by using the fuzzy expectation-maximization （ EM ） algorithm, whereas the optimal number of these nodes as well as the centers and widths of radial basis functions are automatically constructed by using a data-driven method. Namely, the method starts with an initial node, and then a new node is added in a hidden layer according to some rules. This procedure is not terminated until the model meets the preset requirements. The method considers both the accuracy and complexity of the model. Numerical simulation results show that the modeling method is effective, and the established model has high prediction accuracy.

Modeling Multisource-heterogeneous Information Based on Random Set and Fuzzy Set Theory

This paper presents a new idea, named as modeling multisensor-heterogeneous information, to incorporate the fuzzy logic methodologies with mulitsensor-multitarget system under the framework of random set theory. Firstly, based on strong random set and weak random set, the unified form to describe both data (unambiguous information) and fuzzy evidence (uncertain information) is introduced. Secondly, according to signatures of fuzzy evidence, two Bayesian-markov nonlinear measurement models are proposed to fuse effectively data and fuzzy evidence. Thirdly, by use of "the models-based signature-matching scheme", the operation of the statistics of fuzzy evidence defined as random set can be translated into that of the membership functions of relative point state variables. These works are the basis to construct qualitative measurement models and to fuse data and fuzzy evidence.

Similarity measure design and similarity computation for discrete fuzzy data

The similarity computations for fuzzy membership function pairs were carried out.Fuzzy number related knowledge was introduced,and conventional similarity was compared with distance based similarity measure.The usefulness of the proposed similarity measure was verified.The results show that the proposed similarity measure could be applied to ordinary fuzzy membership functions,though it was not easy to design.Through conventional results on the calculation of similarity for fuzzy membership pair,fuzzy membership-crisp pair and crisp-crisp pair were carried out.The proposed distance based similarity measure represented rational performance with the heuristic point of view.Furthermore,troublesome in fuzzy number based similarity measure for abnormal universe of discourse case was discussed.Finally,the similarity measure computation for various membership function pairs was discussed with other conventional results.

Fuzzy entropy design for non convex fuzzy set and application to mutual information

Fuzzy entropy was designed for non convex fuzzy membership function using well known Hamming distance measure.The proposed fuzzy entropy had the same structure as that of convex fuzzy membership case.Design procedure of fuzzy entropy was proposed by considering fuzzy membership through distance measure,and the obtained results contained more flexibility than the general fuzzy membership function.Furthermore,characteristic analyses for non convex function were also illustrated.Analyses on the mutual information were carried out through the proposed fuzzy entropy and similarity measure,which was also dual structure of fuzzy entropy.By the illustrative example,mutual information was discussed.

Fuzzy-GA based algorithm for optimal placement and sizing of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) for loss reduction of distribution network considering reconfiguration

This work presents a fuzzy based methodology for distribution system feeder reconfiguration considering DSTATCOM with an objective of minimizing real power loss and operating cost. Installation costs of DSTATCOM devices and the cost of system operation, namely, energy loss cost due to both reconfiguration and DSTATCOM placement, are combined to form the objective function to be minimized. The distribution system tie switches, DSTATCOM location and size have been optimally determined to obtain an appropriate operational condition. In the proposed approach, the fuzzy membership function of loss sensitivity is used for the selection of weak nodes in the power system for the placement of DSTATCOM and the optimal parameter settings of the DFACTS device along with optimal selection of tie switches in reconfiguration process are governed by genetic algorithm(GA). Simulation results on IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 69-bus test systems concluded that the combinatorial method using DSTATCOM and reconfiguration is preferable to reduce power losses to 34.44% for 33-bus system and to 45.43% for 69-bus system.

Delayed recognition:recent developments and a proposal to study this phenomenon as a fuzzy concept

Purpose:New developments in the study of delayed recognition are discussed.Design/methodology/approach:Based on these new developments a method is proposed to characterize delayed recognition as a fuzzy concept.Findings:A benchmark value of 0.333 corresponding with linear growth is obtained.Moreover,a case is discovered in which an expert found delayed recognition several years before citation analysis could discover this phenomenon.Research limitations:As all citation studies also this one is database dependent.Practical implications:Delayed recognition is turned into a fuzzy concept.Originality/value:The article presents a new way of studying delayed recognition.

Research on trend prediction of component stock in fuzzy time series based on deep forest

With the continuous development of machine learning and the increasing complexity of financial data analysis,it is more popular to use models in the field of machine learning to solve the hot and difficult problems in the financial industry.To improve the effectiveness of stock trend prediction and solve the problems in time series data processing,this paper combines the fuzzy affiliation function with stock-related technical indicators to obtain nominal data that can widely reflect the constituent stocks in the case of time series changes by analysing the S&P 500 index.Meanwhile,in order to optimise the current machine learning algorithm in which the setting and adjustment of hyperparameters rely too much on empirical knowledge,this paper combines the deep forest model to train the stock data separately.The experimental results show that(1)the accuracy of the extreme random forest and the accuracy of the multi-grain cascade forest are both higher than that of the gated recurrent unit(GRU)model when the un-fuzzy index-adjusted dataset is used as features for input,(2)the accuracy of the extreme random forest and the accuracy of the multigranular cascade forest are improved by using the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for input,(3)the accuracy of the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting the extreme random forest is improved by 18.89% compared to that of the un-fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting the extreme random forest and(4)the average accuracy of the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting multi-grain cascade forest increased by 5.67%.

Novel moderate transformation of fuzzy membership function into basic belief assignment

In information fusion,the uncertain information from different sources might be modeled with different theoretical frameworks.When one needs to fuse the uncertain information represented by different uncertainty theories,constructing the transformation between different frameworks is crucial.Various transformations of a Fuzzy Membership Function(FMF)into a Basic Belief Assignment(BBA)have been proposed,where the transformations based on uncertainty maximization and minimization can determine the BBA without preselecting the focal elements.However,these two transformations that based on uncertainty optimization emphasize the extreme cases of uncertainty.To avoid extreme attitudinal bias,a trade-off or moderate BBA with the uncertainty degree between the minimal and maximal ones is more preferred.In this paper,two moderate transformations of an FMF into a trade-off BBA are proposed.One is the weighted average based transformation and the other is the optimization-based transformation with weighting mechanism,where the weighting factor can be user-specified or determined with some prior information.The rationality and effectiveness of our transformations are verified through numerical examples and classification examples.

Insulation and Flame Retardancy Improvement of PBDEs Using 3D-QSAR Model Combined with a Fuzzy Membership Function Method

A three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship(3D-QSAR)model based on the fuzzy membership function method was developed in this study,and then the model was applied to the molecular design of the enhanced comprehensive activities(insulation/flame retardancy)of polybrominated diphenyl ethers(PBDEs)considering their environmental behavior control,to develop environmental-friendly PBDE derivatives with outstanding functionality.Firstly,a fuzzy membership function method was employed to characterize the evaluation values of comprehensive activities of the functional properties of PBDEs based on the 3D-QSAR model.Secondly,a comprehensive activity 3D-QSAR model(CoMFA)of the functional properties of PBDEs was established,which demonstrated robustness and good predictive ability.Thirdly,a molecular modification scheme was designed to enhance the comprehensive activity of the functional properties of PBDEs considering the PBDE homologs BDE-138,BDE-183,and BDE-209 as target molecules.The resulting information indicated that the four PBDE derivatives with significantly enhanced functional properties,such as passing screening for toxicity,bioconcentration,migration,and biodegradability assessments with environmentally friendly results,were successfully designed(43.57%-82.14%enhancement).Finally,the mechanism analysis indicated that the enhanced functional properties of the modified PBDE derivatives were significantly related to the substitution positions and substitution groups of PBDEs.

A Support Vector Machine-based Evaluation Model of Customer Satisfaction Degree in Logistics

This paper presents a novel evaluation model of the customer satisfaction degree （CSD） in logistics based on support vector machine （SVM）. Firstly, the relation between the suppliers and the customers is analyzed. Seondly, the evaluation index system and fuzzy quantitative methods are provided. Thirdly, the CSD evaluation system including eight indexes and three ranks based on one-against-one mode of SVM is built, last simulation experint is presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

FUZZY SATISFYING INTERACTIVE MULTIOBJECTIVE THERMAL POWER DISPATCH： SWT APPROACH

In multiobjective optimization, trade-off analysis plays an important role in determining most preferred solution. This paper presents an explicit interactive trade-off analysis based on the surrogate worth trade-off function to determine the best compromised solution. In the multiobjective framework thermal power dispatch problem is undertaken in which four objectives viz. cost, NOx emission, SOx emission and COx emission are minimized simultaneously. The interactive process is implemented using a weighting method by regulating the relative weights of objectives in systematic manner. Hence the weighting method facilitates to simulate the trade-offrelation between the conflicting objectives in non-inferior domain. Exploiting fuzzy decision making theory to access the indifference band, interaction with the decision maker is obtained via surrogate worth trade-off （SWT） functions of the objectives. The surrogate worth trade-off functions are constructed in the functional space and then transformed into the decision space, so the surrogate worth trade-off functions of objectives relate the decision maker＇s preferences to non-inferior solutions through optimal weight patterns. The optimal solution of thermal power dispatch problem is obtained by considering real and reactive power losses. Decoupled load flow analysis is performed to find the transmission losses. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated on 11-bus, 17-lines IEEE system, comprising of three generators.

Kernel Density Estimation Based Multiphase Fuzzy Region Competition Method for Texture Image Segmentation

In this paper,we propose a multiphase fuzzy region competition model for texture image segmentation.In the functional,each region is represented by a fuzzy membership function and a probability density function that is estimated by a nonparametric kernel density estimation.The overall algorithm is very efficient as both the fuzzy membership function and the probability density function can be implemented easily.We apply the proposed method to synthetic and natural texture images,and synthetic aperture radar images.Our experimental results have shown that the proposed method is competitive with the other state-of-the-art segmentation methods.