增长速度与增长转型:孰轻孰重?——关于中国GDP调增的冷思考

经过经济普查,2004年中国GDP调增16．8％。GDP调大虽然使一些比例关系得到优化并有利于今后的科学决策。但是,我们应该清醒地看到,GDP调大并不表示财富从天而降,更不意味着GDP制造过程中的诸多问题自动清零,调整增长战略、创新增长方式,应该成为我们最大的追求。

中国经济:增长转型重于增长速度——关于GDP调增的冷思考

经过经济普查,2004年中国GDP调增16.8%。GDP调大虽然使一些比例关系得到优化并有利于今后的科学决策。但是,我们应该清醒地看到,GDP调大并不表示财富从天而降,更不意味着GDP制造过程中的诸多问题自动清除。调整增长战略、创新增长方式,应该成为我们最大的追求。

增长速度与增长转型:孰轻孰重?——关于中国GDP调增的冷思考

经过经济普查,2004年中国GDP调增16.8%。GDP调大虽然使一些比例关系得到优化并有利于今后的科学决策。但是,我们应该清醒地看到,GDP调大并不表示财富从天而降,更不意味着GDP制造过程中的诸多问题自动清零!调整增长战略、创新增长方式,应该成为我们最大的追求!

对武汉市实现GDP万亿倍增的若干思考

实现"GDP万亿倍增"既是"复兴大武汉"战略的题中之义,也是其不可逾越的一个战略步骤。本文阐述了武汉实现万亿倍增的战略意义以及实现万亿倍增所面临的主要挑战和问题。论述了武汉实现万亿倍增的现实基础。通过分析北京、上海等七个GDP过万亿城市的成功经验,提出了武汉实现万亿倍增的路径选择。

政策下的通货膨胀对经济增长的影响

本文通过对中国历年的GDP、PPI、货币供应量,以及价格水平等数据进行分析,得出通货膨胀、货币供给以及经济增长的关系。并根据它们之间的关系提出治理通货膨胀的措施和方法。

Has Okun's Law Become Invalid in China?——Estimation of Potential GDP Growth Rates and Natural Rates of Unemployment Based on Dual Structure

This paper calculates the potential GDP growth rates and the natural rates of unemployment in China using the dual decomposition of the simple Okun＇s law. The results show that every 1% increase in China＇s urban registered unemployment rate leads to a 1.98% drop of GDP, the potential growth rate of GDP of China is about 10%, and the average natural rate of unemployment is about 3.2% in China in the past three decades. The paper finds that Olcun＇s law is still valid in China in the long run, but the Okun coefficient is about -3.79, overestimating the impact of the registered unemployment rate on GDP growth, and needs to be corrected based on China＇s dual economic structure.

Don＇t Overlook GDP and Investment： An Analysis of China＇s Current Economic Trend

In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is, there is a tendency of neglecting and downplaying GDP while making fewer efforts to develop economy in some regions that oppose GDP worship and irrational pursuit of and competition for GDP,, which deserves our full attention. We further propose in this paper that the decline of China＇s potential economic growth rate should keep a gradual process and the government should favor consumption while not overlooking investment, given that a certain amount of moderate investment will remain the key impetus to China＇s economic growth over a certain period in the future.

Major Function Oriented Zone: New Method of Spatial Regulation for Reshaping Regional Development Pattern in China

Newest planning methods implemented by Chinese government are promoting a coordinated regional development and shaping an orderly spatial structure by applying the regulation of territorial function. This article analyzes the problems of spatial planning and regional strategy caused by the wrongly-set primary goal of economic development; it states that the three-fold objective of competitiveness, sustainability, and welfare fairness shall be the principal for China to implement the spatial regulation in the new era; it discusses about theoretical thoughts and technology framework of conducting the ′Major Function Oriented Zone′ based on their different major functions that each region plays in urbanization and industrialization, ecological constructions, grain productions, and protection of natural and cultural heritages; it introduces the new concept of ′Major Function Oriented Zone′ that include the major functions category, the stereo regional equilibrium mode, the two-level zoning specification, and the territorial development intensity; it offers a zoning scheme that defines development-optimized and development-prioritized zones as regions with massive urbanization and industrialization, development-restricted zones as ecological constructing or grain producing regions, development-prohibited zones as natural and cultural heritage protecting regions; and finally it addresses the main obstacle for implementing ′Major Function Oriented Zone′, which is the institutional arrangement of the supreme goal of high GDP growth rate that is currently being implemented.

CHINA'S REGIONAL DISPARITY IN 1981-2000:OPENNESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF NON-STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES AND FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION

While China's economic growth has been impressive since 1978, regional disparity in terms of provincial per capita GDP has been increasing. On the other hand, this rapid but uneven growth was accompanied by China's deepening openness and structural reforms including the development of non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and fiscal decentralization. Based on quantitative analyses, this paper tries to explore the features of regional disparity in China and the relationships between regional growth and China's openness and economic structure reforms in the period from 1981 to 2000. The paper finds that the catching-up of the coastal region to the initially rich provinces, which are mainly located in inland areas, brought about a convergence of the growth pattern across provinces in the 1980s.The subsequent divergence in the provincial growth rates between the coast and the interior generated an enlarging regional disparity in China in the 1990s. The ever-faster growth in the coastal region was benefited by China's openness and the development of non-state-owned enterprises. The development of non-state-owned enterprises underlies the higher operational efficiency in the coastal region. Additionally, with the insignificant regression results, fiscal decentralization was observed to facilitate faster growth in the coast region. The findings justify the initiative of the 'West Region Development Strategy' and offer some policy implications for China.

The Role of China's High-Tech Zones in Its Regional Economic Development

National high-tech industrial development zones represent a major strategy of the Chinese government in developing high-tech industries and spurring regional economic growth. The effect of this policy is yet to be proven. Based on the panel data of 283 Chinese cities between 1984 and 2012, this paper investigates the effect of high-tech zones on regional economic development. Empirical results suggest that first, national hightech zones have remarkably enhanced regional GDP and per capita GDP growth, and this conclusion still holds true after multiple rounds of robustness test; second, the economic effect of national high-tech zones is subject to diminishing marginal return and compared with higher-tier cities, lower-tier cities benefited more from the creation of national hightech zones. This paper concludes that national high-tech zones where special policies are experimented and offered not only drive economic development but, if properly distributed across regions, may help reduce regional economic disparities as well. The results of this study provide important implications for the future distribution of national high-tech zones and the creation of other relevant policies.

China＇s Sovereign Balance Sheet and Its Risk Assessment

Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.

Chinese urbanization 2050： SD modeling and process simulation

Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic(SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China's population will still settle in rural regions of China.