希夏邦马峰东坡冰川与冰川湖泊变化遥感监测

1977—2003年的遥感影像显示,希夏邦马峰东坡的冰川在迅速退缩,而其相应的冰川湖泊在迅速增大.南部的吉葱普冰川每年的退缩速度57 099 m2,冰舌退缩48 m.a-1,相应的卢姆池米冰湖面积增加速度大约为79 048 m2.a-1;北面的热强冰川退缩速度在63 224 m2.a-1,冰舌退缩71 m.a-1,相应的扛西错冰湖面积增加约73 425 m2.a-1.从这两个冰湖的类型和变化分析,认为其具有发生冰川湖泊溃决洪水的潜在危险.

Can a dam type of an alpine lake be derived from lake geometry?A negative result

Glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs)represent one of the most serious hazard and risk in deglaciating high mountain regions worldwide and the need for GLOF hazard and risk assessment is apparent.As a consequence,numerous region-and nation-wide GLOF assessment studies have been published recently.These studies cover large areas and consider hundreds to thousands of lakes,prioritizing the hazard posed by them.Clearly,certain simplification is required for executing such studies,often resulting in neglecting qualitative characteristics which would need manual assignment.Different lake dam types(e.g.,bedrock-dammed,moraine-dammed)are often not distinguished,despite they control GLOF mechanism(dam overtopping/dam breach)and thus GLOF magnitude.In this study,we explore the potential of easily measurable quantitative characteristics and four ratios to approximate the lake dam type.Our dataset of 851 lakes of the Cordillera Blanca suggests that while variances and means of these characteristics of individual lake types differ significantly(F-test,t-test),value distribution of different geometrical properties can’t be used for the originally proposed purpose along the spectra.The only promising results are obtained for extreme values(selected bins)of the ratios.For instance,the low width to length ratio indicates likely morainedammed lake while the high value of ratio indicating round-shape of the lake indicates increased likelihood of bedrock-dammed lake.Overall,we report a negative result of our experiment since there are negligible differences of relative frequencies in most of the bins along the spectra.

享受BEACH、GLOF、SPA和所有无所事事的安逸时光

当你自机场到酒店的汽车下来,迎面是穿着湛蓝海岛服的门童真诚的笑容。下得车来,全开放的阔大大堂,海风直接从大堂那头吹来,270度的海景就在面前,那一刻,想也不用想,你的心底一定说:啊!假期开始了。

青藏高原东南部来古冰湖变化及其溃决洪水评估

冰湖溃决洪水(Glacial lake outburst flood,简称GLOF)灾害是冰川区最常见、危害最大的灾害类型之一,历来是国内外学者研究的关键科学问题。在全球变暖的大背景下,冰川退缩加剧,其下游冰湖扩张快速,湖面升高,溃决风险提高。青藏高原尤其是东南部地区孕育着大量的冰湖,在过去的几十年间,冰湖溃决洪水威胁着当地人民的生产生活。基于LANDSAT遥感影像,本文获取了青藏高原东南部雅弄冰川和来古冰湖1986年、1990年、1994年、1997年、2000年、2003年、2005年、2011年、2013年和2017年共10期湖面面积,并结合实地测量的冰湖水深资料,计算了冰湖对应年份的储水量,建立冰湖面积与储水量变化序列;结合野外调查从冰湖面积与水量变化趋势和突发事件两方面探讨冰湖溃决可能性;利用BREACH模型和SMPDBK模型估算和模拟来古冰湖溃决洪水,做灾害预警分析。结果表明,1986~2017年冰湖上湖变化不大,而来谷下湖处于持续扩张中,面积由1986年的1.151±0.070 km^2扩张至2017年的3.148±0.097 km^2,水量由0.645×10^8 m^3增加至2.143×10^8 m^3,雅弄冰川在1986~2013年持续后退,在2013~2017年突然前进;经讨论其溃决风险得出冰川滑动入湖导致湖水瞬时涌出从而造成溃坝的可能性较高;利用BREACH模型及SMPDBK模型对来古冰湖溃决洪水模拟结果表明,当来古下湖湖水受冰体挤压抬升发生溃决时,溃决洪水将严重威胁然乌镇及其上游居民的生命和财物安全。

Potentially dangerous glacial lakes across the Tibetan Plateau revealed using a large-scale automated assessment approach

Glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs) are a major concern in the Himalaya and on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),where several disasters occurring over the past century have caused significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. This study responds directly to the needs of local authorities to provide guidance on the most dangerous glacial lakes across TP where local monitoring and other risk reduction strategies can subsequently be targeted. Specifically, the study aims to establish a first comprehensive prioritisation ranking of lake danger for TP, considering both the likelihood and possible magnitude of any outburst event(hazard), and the exposure of downstream communities. A composite inventory of 1,291 glacial lakes(>0.1 km^2) was derived from recent remote sensing studies, and a fully automated and object assessment scheme was implemented using customised GIS tools. Based on four core determinates of GLOF hazard(lake size, watershed area, topographic potential for ice/rock avalanching, and dam steepness), the scheme accurately distinguishes the high to very high hazard level of 19 out of 20 lakes that have previously generated GLOFs. Notably, 16% of all glacial lakes threaten human settlements, with a hotspot of GLOF danger identified in the central Himalayan counties of Jilong, Nyalam, and Dingri, where the potential trans-boundary threat to communities located downstream in Nepal is also recognised. The results provide an important and object scientific basis for decision-making, and the methodological approach is ideally suited for replication across other mountainous regions where such first-order studies are lacking.

山地冰川冰湖变化及其溃决洪水遥感监测研究进展

冰湖作为冰川融水主要储蓄载体,能在一定程度延缓区域冰川淡水资源流失,但也为冰湖溃决洪水(Glacial Lake Outburst Floods,GLOFs)、滑坡、泥石流等山地灾害发生提供了孕灾场所,是众多山地冰川灾害链的重要环节。升温、极端气候变化扰动下,冰川物质亏损/减薄速率进一步加剧,冰湖形态变化速率加快、GLOFs发生频次与规模有所提升、灾害影响效应愈发显著,对高海拔山地冰川区下游居民生命财产和基础设施安全带来潜在风险。鉴于此,本文以冰湖与GLOFs研究为主题,首先,通过冰湖研究文献计量分析确定了近些年研究热点专题;其次,围绕山地冰川冰湖与GLOFs研究的3个主要方向:冰湖与GLOFs遥感监测、冰湖时空演化与冰川变化分析及未来潜在冰湖探测、冰湖灾害风险评估与GLOFs案例研究,遴选10项重要专题内容,分门别类、系统梳理总结、剖析了国内外研究进展,阐述了当下研究存在不足;最后,针对所选专题结合技术发展趋势与研究热点问题,围绕冰湖形态信息与GLOFs智能提取、冰川-冰(前/面)湖系统演化及其气候变化响应关系、冰湖监测预警与灾害防治内容,对未来研究做了一定展望,以期为山地冰川冰湖灾害管理与适应性规划提供借鉴与参考。