Fair Plan 6: Quo Vadis the 80%-Emission-Reduction-By-2050 Plan?

In our Fair Plan 5 paper, we compared the CO2 emissions of the 80%-Emission-Reduction-By-2050 (80/50) Plan with the CO2 emissions of our Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate. We found that the 80/50 Plan reduced CO2 emissions more rapidly than necessary to achieve the principal objective of the Fair Plan: to keep Global Warming (GW) within the 2℃ (3.6℉) limit adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Here, we ask the “What If” question: “What would the GW of the 80/50 Plan be post 2100 if its CO2 emissions post 2100 were kept at their 2100 value?” We find that although the GW of the 80/50 Plan decreases slightly over part of the 21st century, it does not remain constant thereafter. Rather, the GW of the 80/50 Plan begins to increase in 2088, exceeds that of the Fair Plan beginning in 2230, exceeds the 2℃ (3.6℉) limit of the UNFCCC in 2596, and ends the millennium at 2.7℃ (4.8℉). Thus, not only does the 80/50 Plan phase out humanity’s CO2 emissions faster than necessary to fulfill the UNFCCC constraint, it also fails that constraint if its CO2 emissions post 2100 are kept at their 2100 value. Accordingly, we believe that the Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate is superior to the 80/50 Plan.

2016 Evaluation of Fair Plan 3: Outlook for Global Temperature Change throughout the 21^stCentury

In 2013, the author and colleagues made a projection of temperature departures (from the 1961-1990 average) throughout the remainder of the 21st century due both to Humanity and Nature. Two scenarios of human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol precursors were examined: (1) A reference scenario with no emissions reductions, and (2) our Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate which zeroes emissions from 2020 through 2100. Human-caused temperature changes from 1756 were calculated using an engineering-type Simple Climate Model. Temperature changes due to Nature were projected from our analyses of the observed temperature departures from 1850 through 2012. These natural changes were due to: (1) Three quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs), each of which we fit with a sine wave to project into the future on a year-by-year basis;(2) Other QPOs that are too irregular to predict yearly, and (3) stochastic noise. We projected natural variations (2) and (3) by the 90% confidence interval of a Normal (Gaussian) probability density function, with zero mean and standard deviation of 0.08°C. Here we add four more years of observed temperature departures to compare with our projections made in 2013. Each of the additional four temperature departure observations for 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 fits within the 90% envelop of temperature departures, thereby rendering our projection accurate to date. Most of the temperature changes during the 2012-2016 period were due to the annually unpredictable natural variability. This evaluation will be repeated quadrennially for the remainder of the author’s life.

A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate. 3: Outlook for Global Temperature Change throughout the 21st Century

We apply Singular Spectrum Analysis to four datasets of observed global-mean near-surface temperature from start year to through 2012: HadCRU (to = 1850), NOAA (to = 1880), NASA (to = 1880), and JMA (to = 1891). For each dataset, SSA reveals a trend of increasing temperature and several quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). QPOs 1, 2 and 3 are predictable on a year-by-year basis by sine waves with periods/amplitudes of: 1) 62.4 years/0.11°C;2) 20.1 to 21.4 years/0.04°C to 0.05°C;and 3) 9.1 to 9.2 years/0.03°C to 0.04°C. The remainder of the natur°l variability is not predictable on a year-by-year basis. We represent this noise by its 90 percent confidence interval. We combine the predictable and unpredictable natural variability with the temperature changes caused by the 11-year solar cycle and humanity, the latter for both the Reference and Revised-Fair-Plan scenarios for future emissions of greenhouse gases. The resulting temperature departures show that we have moved from the first phase of learning—Ignorance—through the second phase—Uncertainty—and are now entering the third phase—Resolution—when the human-caused signal is much larger than the natural variability. Accordingly, it is now time to transition to the post-fossil-fuel age by phasing out fossil-fuel emissions from 2020 through 2100.

A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate

A maximum global-mean warming of 2°C above preindustrial temperatures has been adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Attempts to find agreements on emissions reductions have proved highly intractable because industrialized countries are responsible for most of the historical emissions, while developing countries will produce most of the future emissions. Here we present a Fair Plan for reducing global greenhouse-gas emissions. Under the Plan, all countries begin mitigation in 2015 and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to zero in 2065. Developing countries are required to follow a mitigation trajectory that is less aggressive in the early years of the Plan than the mitigation trajectory for developed countries. The trajectories are chosen such that the cumulative emissions of the Kyoto Protocol’s Annex B (developed) and non-Annex B (developing) countries are equal. Under this Fair Plan the global-mean warming above preindustrial temperatures is held below 2°C.

A Revised Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate

In our original study we crafted trajectories for developed and developing countries that phased-out greenhouse gas emissions during 2015-2065 such that the maximum global warming does not exceed the 2℃ threshold adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the cumulative emissions for developed and developing countries are identical. Here we examine the effects of increasing the start year from 2015 to 2030 in 5-year intervals, and the phase-out period from 50 to 100 years in 10-year intervals. We find that phase-out during 2020-2100 is optimal. This phase-out increases the year of peak emission from 2015 to 2030 for developed countries and from 2042 to 2053 for developing countries. It also increases the time from peak emissions to zero emissions from 50 to 70 years for developed countries and from 23 to 47 years for developing countries. Both outcomes should facilitate agreement of the Revised Fair Plan by the UNFCCC.

Fair Plan 5: A Critical Appraisal of Five Congressional Bills to Reduce US CO2 Emissions

The most recent US Congressional climate bill, H.R.5271 in 2014, proposes to reduce US emissions of carbon dioxide relative to their 2005 value by 80% in 2050. This bill does not provide a rationale for this rapid phase down of CO2 emissions. In 2012, we crafted a Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate such that: 1) The cumulative trade-adjusted CO2 emissions by the developing countries equal the cumulative trade-adjusted CO2 emissions by the developed countries;2) The maximum global warming above preindustrial temperature does not exceed the 2°C (3.6°F) chosen by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”;and 3) The phase out of CO2 emissions begins as late as possible in the 21st century and proceeds at the slowest possible pace, consistent with objectives 1 and 2. The Fair Plan begins in 2020 and reduces the world’s emissions to zero in 2100. In the Fair Plan the emissions of the developed countries, including the United States, reach 80% below their 2005 values in 2094, that is, 44 years later than proposed by H.R.5271. While it is imperative that humanity begins to wean itself from fossil fuels no later than 2020, the transition from fossil to non-fossil energy need not be completed before 2100 if all countries follow their Fair Plan trajectories.

Fair Plan 4: Safeguarding the Climate of “This Island Earth”

Earth is the only habitable planet in the solar system and beyond in interstellar space for a distance that would take us at least 80,000 years to traverse at the speed of Voyager 1. Thus our home planet is “This Island Earth”. Here we use our Simple (engineering-type) Climate Model to calculate the change in global-mean near-surface air temperature from 1765 through the third millennium for historical emissions and two scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases: (1) a Reference scenario of unabated emissions, and (2) our Fair Plan scenario wherein emissions are phased out to zero from 2020 to 2100. The temperature change for the Reference cases increases to 5.2°C (9.4°F) in 2225 and remains there for at least 40 human generations. By design, the temperature change for the Fair Plan increases only to 2°C (3.6°F)—the limit adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”—in 2082 and thereafter decreases through the remainder of the millennium. Accordingly, we need to adopt the Fair Plan to safeguard the climate of “This Island Earth”.

高分五号卫星大气参数探测综述

高分五号卫星搭载了大气痕量气体差分吸收光谱仪、主要温室气体探测仪、大气多角度偏振探测仪、大气环境红外甚高分辨率探测仪、可见短波红外高光谱相机和全谱段光谱成像仪共6台载荷,对全球环境监测及中国大气气溶胶、臭氧、二氧化硫、二氧化氮、二氧化碳、甲烷和云等多个环境与气象综合监测方面有着重要的意义。为了更好的了解高分五号卫星任务的大气监测内容,本文对高分五号卫星其中的4个大气探测载荷特征和数据处理算法进展进行了总结,涉及各个载荷参数信息、算法介绍和产品初步结果等相关内容。高分五号卫星是中国专门用于大气环境监测任务的遥感卫星,随着后续卫星的发射升空,将对中国乃至全球大气环境监测提供强有力的数据支撑。