Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression in Assessing Dengue Fever Spread Factors in Yunnan Border Regions

Objective This study employs the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)model to assess the impact of meteorological elements and imported cases on dengue fever outbreaks,emphasizing the spatial-temporal variability of these factors in border regions.Methods We conducted a descriptive analysis of dengue fever’s temporal-spatial distribution in Yunnan border areas.Utilizing annual data from 2013 to 2019,with each county in the Yunnan border serving as a spatial unit,we constructed a GTWR model to investigate the determinants of dengue fever and their spatio-temporal heterogeneity in this region.Results The GTWR model,proving more effective than Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)analysis,identified significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in factors influencing dengue fever’s spread along the Yunnan border.Notably,the GTWR model revealed a substantial variation in the relationship between indigenous dengue fever incidence,meteorological variables,and imported cases across different counties.Conclusion In the Yunnan border areas,local dengue incidence is affected by temperature,humidity,precipitation,wind speed,and imported cases,with these factors’influence exhibiting notable spatial and temporal variation.

Exploring spatial non-stationarity of near-miss ship collisions from AIS data under the influence of sea fog using geographically weighted regression:A case study in the Bohai Sea,China

Sea fog is a disastrous weather phenomenon,posing a risk to the safety of maritime transportation.Dense sea fogs reduce visibility at sea and have frequently caused ship collisions.This study used a geographically weighted regression(GWR)model to explore the spatial non-stationarity of near-miss collision risk,as detected by a vessel conflict ranking operator(VCRO)model from automatic identification system(AIS)data under the influence of sea fog in the Bohai Sea.Sea fog was identified by a machine learning method that was derived from Himawari-8 satellite data.The spatial distributions of near-miss collision risk,sea fog,and the parameters of GWR were mapped.The results showed that sea fog and near-miss collision risk have specific spatial distribution patterns in the Bohai Sea,in which near-miss collision risk in the fog season is significantly higher than that outside the fog season,especially in the northeast(the sea area near Yingkou Port and Bayuquan Port)and the southeast(the sea area near Yantai Port).GWR outputs further indicated a significant correlation between near-miss collision risk and sea fog in fog season,with higher R-squared(0.890 in fog season,2018),than outside the fog season(0.723 in non-fog season,2018).GWR results revealed spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between-near miss collision risk and sea fog and that the significance of these relationships varied locally.Dividing the specific navigation area made it possible to verify that sea fog has a positive impact on near-miss collision risk.

Estimating the Parameters Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) with Measurement Error

Geographically weighted regression models with the measurement error are a modeling method that combines the global regression models with the measurement error and the weighted regression model. The assumptions used in this model are a normally distributed error with that the expectation value is zero and the variance is constant. The purpose of this study is to estimate the parameters of the model and find the properties of these estimators. Estimation is done by using the Weighted Least Squares (WLS) which gives different weighting to each location. The variance of the measurement error is known. Estimators obtained are . The properties of the estimator are unbiased and have a minimum variance.

Exploration of the spatial pattern of urban residential land use with geographically weighted regression technique: a case study of Nanjing,China

As the traditional methods and technical means cannot meet the quantitative research needs of the urban land use patterns, quantitative research methods for the urban land use pattern are established via the GIS （geographic information system ） technique combined with the related theories and models. Taking the city of Nanjing as an example, a spatial database of urban land use and other environmental and socio-economic data is constructed. A multiple linear regression model is developed to determine the statistically significant factors affecting the residential land use distributions. To explain the spatial variations of urban land use patterns, the geographically weighted regression （GWR） is employed to establish spatial associations between these significant factors and the distribution of urban residential land use. The results demonstrate that the GWR can provide an effective approach to the exploration of the urban land use spatial patterns and also provide useful spatial information for planning residential development and other types of urban land use.

基于Geodetector和MGWR的贵州工业碳排放效率时空演化及影响因素分析

探究工业碳排放效率的时空演化及影响因素对区域产业绿色发展具有重要意义。基于2010—2020年贵州省9个市州的面板数据,利用super-SBM模型与Malmquist指数对工业碳排放效率进行静态和动态分析,并采用探索性时空数据分析方法揭示时空交互特征;基于此结合地理探测器和多尺度地理加权回归模型研究其影响因素。结果表明:①贵州工业碳排放效率整体呈上升趋势,年均增长率为8.45%。②技术进步是贵州工业碳排放效率提升的主要内动力。③工业碳排放效率空间自相关的时间路径长度呈现由东部市州向中、西部增大的趋势;贵州各市州的工业碳排放效率随时间演变呈现出较强的空间依赖关系。④对外开放程度、城市化水平、能源消耗强度、产业结构、重工业水平、生产力水平6个因素是影响工业碳排放效率的主导因子,且影响显著性出现不同程度的提高;对外开放程度、能源消耗强度与工业碳排放效率存在负相关,其余主导因子与工业碳排放效率呈正相关。

基于MGWR模型的大城市房价空间分异特征及影响因素分析——以南京市主城区为例

文章以2022年南京市主城居住小区为基本单元,运用空间自相关和克里金插值分析法对主城区房价的空间分布与分异进行分析与模拟,然后引入住房阶层理论在划分不同居住阶层基础上,分析各阶层间的空间分异特征;最后利用混合地理加权回归模型(MGWR),探究住区属性、区位条件、交通特征和配套设施4类因素对主城区房价空间分异的影响。研究表明:(1)南京市主城区房价整体呈现由主城西向周边区域逐步递减的多组团模式;(2)主城区不同住房阶层表现出“西高东低”的空间集聚特征,阶层间虽未出现明显的空间隔离、对立或极化,但富裕阶层对主城优势资源和环境的剥夺现象显著;(3)各类因素对主城区房价具有差异化影响,其中住区属性的影响较稳定,区位条件的影响具有空间全局性,而交通特征和配套设施的影响则存在显著的空间边界效应,即房价与设施空间距离的负相关性具有空间范围界限。

Spatial Downscaling of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Using Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging over the Lancang River Basin, China

Satellite-based precipitation products have been widely used to estimate precipitation, especially over regions with sparse rain gauge networks. However, the low spatial resolution of these products has limited their application in localized regions and watersheds.This study investigated a spatial downscaling approach, Geographically Weighted Regression Kriging(GWRK), to downscale the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) 3 B43 Version 7 over the Lancang River Basin(LRB) for 2001–2015. Downscaling was performed based on the relationships between the TRMM precipitation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), the Land Surface Temperature(LST), and the Digital Elevation Model(DEM). Geographical ratio analysis(GRA) was used to calibrate the annual downscaled precipitation data, and the monthly fractions derived from the original TRMM data were used to disaggregate annual downscaled and calibrated precipitation to monthly precipitation at 1 km resolution. The final downscaled precipitation datasets were validated against station-based observed precipitation in 2001–2015. Results showed that: 1) The TRMM 3 B43 precipitation was highly accurate with slight overestimation at the basin scale(i.e., CC(correlation coefficient) = 0.91, Bias = 13.3%). Spatially, the accuracies of the upstream and downstream regions were higher than that of the midstream region. 2) The annual downscaled TRMM precipitation data at 1 km spatial resolution obtained by GWRK effectively captured the high spatial variability of precipitation over the LRB. 3) The annual downscaled TRMM precipitation with GRA calibration gave better accuracy compared with the original TRMM dataset. 4) The final downscaled and calibrated precipitation had significantly improved spatial resolution, and agreed well with data from the validated rain gauge stations, i.e., CC = 0.75, RMSE(root mean square error) = 182 mm, MAE(mean absolute error) = 142 mm, and Bias = 0.78%for annual precipitation and CC = 0.95, RMSE = 25 mm, MAE = 16 mm, and Bias = 0.67% for monthly precipitation.

Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks,Geographically Weighted Regression and Cokriging Methods for Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Soil Macronutrients(N,P,and K)

Soil macronutrients(i.e. nitrogen(N), phosphorus(P), and potassium(K)) are important soils components and knowing the spatial distribution of these parameters are necessary at precision agriculture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of different methods such as artificial neural networks(ANN) and two geostatistical methods(geographically weighted regression(GWR) and cokriging(CK)) to estimate N, P and K contents. For this purpose, soil samples were taken from topsoil(0–30 cm) at 106 points and analyzed for their chemical and physical parameters. These data were divided into calibration(n = 84) and validation(n = 22). Chemical and physical variables including clay, p H and organic carbon(OC) were used as auxiliary soil variables to estimate the N, P and K contents. Results showed that the ANN model(with coefficient of determination R^2 = 0.922 and root mean square error RMSE = 0.0079%) was more accurate compared to the CK model(with R^2 = 0.612 and RMSE = 0.0094%), and the GWR model(with R^2 = 0.872 and RMSE = 0.0089%) to estimate the N variable. The ANN model estimated the P with the RMSE of 3.630 ppm, which was respectively 28.93% and 20.00% less than the RMSE of 4.680 ppm and 4.357 ppm from the CK and GWR models. The estimated K by CK, GWR and ANN models have the RMSE of 76.794 ppm, 75.790 ppm and 52.484 ppm. Results indicated that the performance of the CK model for estimation of macro nutrients(N, P and K) was slightly lower than the GWR model. Also, the accuracy of the ANN model was higher than CK and GWR models, which proved to be more effective and reliable methods for estimating macro nutrients.

Travel Behaviours of Sharing Bicycles in the Central Urban Area Based on Geographically Weighted Regression: The Case of Guangzhou, China

Mobile information and communication technologies(MICTs) have fully penetrated everyday life in smart societies;this has greatly compressed time, space, and distance, and consequently, reshaped residents’ travel behaviour patterns. As a new mode of shared mobility, the sharing bicycle offers a variety of options for the daily travel of urban residents. Extant studies have mainly examined the travel characteristics and influencing factors of public bicycles with piles, while the travel patterns for sharing bicycles and their driving mechanisms have been largely ignored. Using one week’s travel data for Mobike, this study investigated the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of sharing bicycle travel behaviours in the central urban area of Guangzhou, China;furthermore, it identified the influences of built environment density factors on sharing bicycle travel behaviours based on the geographically weighted regression method. Obvious morning and evening peaks were observed in the sharing bicycle travel patterns for both weekdays and weekends. The old urban area, which had a high degree of mixed function, dense road networks, and cycling-friendly built environments, was the main travel area that attracted sharing bicycles on both weekdays and weekends. Furthermore, factors including the point of interest(POI) for the density of public transport stations, the functional mixing degree, and the density of residential POIs significantly affected residents’ travel behaviours. These findings could enrich discourse regarding shared mobility with a Chinese case characterised by rapidly developing MICTs and also provide references to local authorities for improving slow traffic environments.

Exploring the drivers of urban expansion in a medium-class urban agglomeration in India using the remote sensing techniques and geographically weighted models

Rapid urbanization urges the immediate attention of policymakers to ensure sustainable city development.Under-standing the urban growth drivers is essential to address effective strategies for urbanization-related challenges.This work aims to study Raiganj’s urban development and the factors associated with this expansion.This study employed global logistic regression(LR)and geographical weighted logistic regression(GWLR)to explore the role of different factors.The results showed that the role of the central business district(covariate>-1),commercial market(covariate>-3),and police station(covariate>-4)were significant to the development of new built-up areas.In the second period,major roads(covariate>-2)and new infrastructures(covariate>-4)became more relevant,particularly in the eastern and southern areas.GWLR was more accurate in assessing the different fac-tors’impact than LR.The results obtained are essential to understanding urban expansion in India’s medium-class cities,which is critical to effective policies for sustainable urbanization.

城市土地价格时空预测Stacking-GWR模型

城市土地价格影响国土空间规划决策、现代城市治理和土地市场调控,预测城市土地价格具有重要意义,但不同用途的土地价格变化趋势差异显著且具有空间异质性,很难用单个模型进行预测。该文提出一种城市土地价格时空预测Stacking-GWR模型,以常州市主城区为研究区,根据土地价格变化趋势分为工业用地和非工业用地两组,利用Stacking-GWR模型进行土地价格预测,并与单独使用Stacking、地理加权回归(GWR)、时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型的预测结果进行对比分析。结果表明:①Stacking-GWR模型融合了地价数据中的特征、空间和时间信息,能提高预测精度;②根据土地价格变化趋势进行分组后,模型预测精度优于不分组时的预测精度;③工业用地和非工业用地土地价格的全局和邻域影响因子差异显著。

基于STIRPAT-GWR模型的重庆市土地利用碳排放动态演进及影响因素

探究重庆市土地利用碳排放时空分异及影响因素,可为进一步优化土地利用结构、落实差异化的降碳减污政策提供参考。基于2000年、2010年、2020年3期土地覆盖数据揭示重庆市碳排放的区域差异及时空动态特征,综合运用STIRPAT模型和地理加权回归(GWR)模型,探究社会经济因素对碳排放的空间异质性影响。结果表明:重庆市净碳排放量在2000—2020年总计增长3723.14×104 t,其时序变化可划分为急剧增加阶段和缓慢增加阶段;土地利用碳汇与碳源仍存在收支不平衡问题。净碳排放总体呈现“中心高、两翼低”的分布格局,净碳排放增量在主城都市区的增长幅度最为剧烈,在渝东南各区县均呈现微度增长态势,渝东北各区县的增长量存在明显的空间差异性。土地利用碳排放各影响因素的空间分布格局差异较大,碳排放强度和人均GDP是关键主导因素,其他依次为城镇人口规模、地方财政一般预算支出、产业结构,碳排放强度在渝东北地区的影响强度较大,城镇人口规模在主城都市区的正向促进作用较大。

Impact of Accessibility on Housing Prices in Dalian City of China Based on a Geographically Weighted Regression Model

This paper studies the relationship between accessibility and housing prices in Dalian by using an improved geographically weighted regression model and house prices, traffic, remote sensing images, etc. Multi-source data improves the accuracy of the spatial differentiation that reflects the impact of traffic accessibility on house prices. The results are as follows: first, the average house price is 12 436 yuan(RMB)/m^2, and reveals a declining trend from coastal areas to inland areas. The exception was Guilin Street, which demonstrates a local peak of house prices that decreases from the center of the street to its periphery. Second, the accessibility value is 33 minutes on average, excluding northern and eastern fringe areas, which was over 50 minutes. Third, the significant spatial correlation coefficient between accessibility and house prices is 0.423, and the coefficient increases in the southeastern direction. The strongest impact of accessibility on house prices is in the southeastern coast, and can be seen in the Lehua, Yingke, and Hushan communities, while the weakest impact is in the northwestern fringe, and can be seen in the Yingchengzi, Xixiaomo, and Daheishi community areas.

Modeling of Spatial Distributions of Farmland Density and Its Temporal Change Using Geographically Weighted Regression Model

This study used spatial autoregression(SAR)model and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model to model the spatial patterns of farmland density and its temporal change in Gucheng County,Hubei Province,China in 1999 and 2009,and discussed the difference between global and local spatial autocorrelations in terms of spatial heterogeneity and non-stationarity.Results showed that strong spatial positive correlations existed in the spatial distributions of farmland density,its temporal change and the driving factors,and the coefficients of spatial autocorrelations decreased as the spatial lag distance increased.SAR models revealed the global spatial relations between dependent and independent variables,while the GWR model showed the spatially varying fitting degree and local weighting coefficients of driving factors and farmland indices(i.e.,farmland density and temporal change).The GWR model has smooth process when constructing the farmland spatial model.The coefficients of GWR model can show the accurate influence degrees of different driving factors on the farmland at different geographical locations.The performance indices of GWR model showed that GWR model produced more accurate simulation results than other models at different times,and the improvement precision of GWR model was obvious.The global and local farmland models used in this study showed different characteristics in the spatial distributions of farmland indices at different scales,which may provide the theoretical basis for farmland protection from the influence of different driving factors.

Spatial distribution of snow depth based on geographically weighted regression kriging in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains, China

Snow depth is a general input variable in many models of agriculture,hydrology,climate and ecology.This study makes use of observational data of snow depth and explanatory variables to compare the accuracy and effect of geographically weighted regression kriging(GWRK)and regression kriging(RK)in a spatial interpolation of regional snow depth.The auxiliary variables are analyzed using correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factor(VIF).Three variables,Height,topographic ruggedness index(TRI),and land surface temperature(LST),are used as explanatory variables to establish a regression model for snow depth.The estimated spatial distribution of snow depth in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains in China with a spatial resolution of 1 km is obtained.The results indicate that 1)the result of GWRK's accuracy is slightly higher than that of RK(R^2=0.55 vs.R^2=0.50,RMSE(root mean square error)=0.102 m vs.RMSE=0.077 m);2)for the subareas,GWRK and RK exhibit similar estimation results of snow depth.Areas in the Bayanbulak Basin with a snow depth greater than 0.15m are mainly distributed in an elevation range of 2632.00–3269.00 m and the snow in this area comprises 45.00–46.00% of the total amount of snow in this basin.However,the GWRK resulted in more detailed information on snow depth distribution than the RK.The final conclusion is that GWRK is better suited for estimating regional snow depth distribution.

Selecting suitable sites for mountain ginseng(Panax ginseng)cultivation by using geographically weighted logistic regression

With the well-being trends to pursue a healthy life, mountain ginseng(Panax ginseng) is rising as one of the most profitable forest products in South Korea. This study was aimed at evaluating a new methodology for identifying suitable sites for mountain ginseng cultivation in the country. Forest vegetation data were collected from 46 sites and the spatial distribution of all sites was analyzed using GIS data for topographic position, landform, solar radiation, and topographic wetness. The physical and chemical properties of the soil samples, including moisture content, p H, organic matter, total nitrogen, exchangeable cations, available phosphorous, and soil texture, were analyzed. The cultivation suitability at each site was assessed based on the environmental conditions using logistic regression(LR) and geographically weighted logistic regression(GWLR) and the results of both methods were compared. The results show that the areas with northern aspect and higher levels of solar radiation, moisture content, total nitrogen, and sand ratio are more likely to be identified as suitable sites for ginseng cultivation. In contrast to the LR, the spatial modeling with the GWLR results in an increase in the model fitness and indicates that a significant portion of spatialautocorrelation in the data decreases. A higher value of the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve presents a better prediction accuracy of site suitability by the GWLR. The geographically weighted coefficient estimates of the model are nonstationary, and reveal that different site suitability is associated with the geographical location of the forest stands. The GWLR increases the accuracy of selecting suitable sites by considering the geographical variations in the characteristics of the cultivation sites.

Association between Macroscopic-factors and Identified HIV/AIDS Cases among Injecting Drug Users: An Analysis Using Geographically Weighted Regression Model

Drug use （DU）, particularly injecting drug use （IDU） has been the main route of transmission and spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus （HIV）/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome （AIDSJ among injecting drug users （IDUs）[1]. Previous studies have proven that needles or cottons sharing during drug injection were major risk factors for HIV/AIDS transmission at the personal level[z4]. Being a social behavioral issue, HIV/AIDS related risk factors should be far beyond the personal level. Therefore, studies on HIV/AIDS related risk factors should focus not only on the individual factors, but also on the association between HIV/AIDS cases and macroscopic-factors, such as economic status, transportation, health care services, etc[1]. The impact of the macroscopic-factors on HIV/AIDS status might be either positive or negative, which are potentially reflected in promoting, delaying or detecting HIV/AIDS epidemics.

GIS-Based Local Spatial Statistical Model of Cholera Occurrence: Using Geographically Weighted Regression

Global statistical techniques often assume homogeneity of relationships between dependent variable and predictors across space. This assumption has been criticized by statistical geographers as a fundamental weakness that may yield misleading result when it is applied to dataset with spatial context. To strengthen this weakness, a new method that accounts for heterogeneity in relationships across geographic space has been presented. This is one of the family of local spatial statistical techniques referred to as geographically weighted regression (GWR). The method captures non-stationarity of relationship in spatial data that the ordinary least square (OLS) regression fails to account for. Thus, the paper is designed to explore and analyze the spatial relationships between cholera occurrence and household sources of water supply using GIS-based GWR, also to compare the modeling fitness of OLS and GWR. Vector dataset (spatial) of the study region by state levels and statistical data (non-spatial) on cholera cases, household sources of water supply and population data were used in this exploratory analysis. The result shows that GWR is a significant improvement on the global model. Comparing both models with the AICc value and the R2 value revealed that for the former, the value is reduced from 698.7 (for OLS model) to 691.5 (for GWR model). For the latter, OLS explained 66.4 percent while GWR explained 86.7 percent. This implies that local model’s fitness is higher than global model. In addition, the empirical analysis revealed that cholera occurrence in the study region is significantly associated with household sources of water supply. This relationship, as detected by GWR, largely varies across the region.

基于MGWR的长江流域植被演化及其影响因素

以2000~2022年长江流域植被覆盖度为因变量,以地形、气象、社会经济因素为自变量,借助能很好处理尺度差异的多尺度地理加权回归(MGWR)探讨植被时空变化及其影响因素.结果表明:2000~2022年长江流域植被覆盖度呈现波动变化,以改善为主,增长速度为0.245%/a;流域植被空间分布模式为东西低,中部高的空间分异;未来流域大部分地区有退化风险.不同影响因子对于长江植被的作用出现明显的空间差异,其中坡度、高程、气温及相对湿度是长江流域植被变化的主要驱动因素;值得注意的是人为因子对于植被的影响力相对较小.植被与各个影响因子的响应尺度具有显著差异,其中地形和气候因子等自然因素对于植被的作用尺度较小,仅为43,而社会因素的作用尺度较大(>870).

耦合ER和GWR的福州市生态环境质量的驱动力分析

城市的生态环境质量受到诸多因素的共同影响,其中以道路建设最为显著,客观分析道路网络及其他因素对生态环境质量的驱动机制,对最大限度减少对生态系统的负面作用具有重要的参考意义。基于道路网络、Landsat系列遥感影像、夜间灯光、数字高程模型、气象和土地利用等多源数据集,在3S技术的支持下,首先采用增量空间自相关和核密度估算(KDE)计算福州市2015年和2020年的道路核密度,利用主成分分析法构建福州市2000、2009和2020年的遥感生态指数(RSEI),在此基础上,分析两者的时空动态变化,接着采用探索性回归(ER)筛选关键影响因子,最后运用地理加权回归模型(GWR)揭示关键影响因子对福州市生态环境质量的驱动机制。结果表明,1)2015年和2020年最佳带宽下KDE的变化范围分别是0-4.090 km∙km^(-2)和0-3.765 km∙km^(-2);高KDE值在2015年主要聚集在福州市区周围和各区县的中心,而至2020年,高KDE值的范围逐渐扩大,呈现向沿海地区蔓延的趋势。2)从时间上看,福州市2000-2020年期间的RSEI呈现先上升后下降的趋势,生态状况整体上相对稳定;从空间上看,生态环境质量好的等级分布在永泰县和闽清县等山区,较差的等级主要分布在市区中心、各区县的中心区、东部沿海区域及沿江两侧。3)对探索性回归筛选出的最佳因子进行拟合,GWR模型拟合效果优于OLS模型。GWR结果表明道路欧氏距离、高程、坡度、林地比例和草地比例与RSEI主要呈正相关关系,道路核密度、夜间灯光、城乡用地比例与RSEI主要呈负相关关系,回归系数的分布呈现明显的空间分异特征。研究结果可为福州市以及其他城市路网规划和生态环境质量提升提供参考依据。