Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery

Background:The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladderpreserving surgery.This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence.Methods:The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected.The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables.The C-index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence.Results:During the follow-up period,a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence,and the recurrence rate was 35.5%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones>2 years[odds ratio(OR)=2.567,95%confidence interval(CI):1.270-5.187,P=0.009],symptomatic gallstones(OR=2.589,95%CI:1.059-6.329,P=0.037),multiple gallstones(OR=2.436,95%CI:1.133-5.237,P=0.023),history of acute cholecystitis(OR=2.778,95%CI:1.178-6.549,P=0.020)and a greasy diet(OR=2.319,95%CI:1.186-4.535,P=0.014)were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery.A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables.The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692,suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence.Moreover,the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability.Conclusions:The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones.Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks.

Snare-assisted flexible endoscope in trans-gastric endoscopic gallbladder-preserving surgery:A pilot animal study

BACKGROUND Natural orifice transluminal endoscopic surgery(NOTES)gallbladder-preserving surgery by flexible endoscopy is an emerging technology.However,the gallbladder fails to obtain traction and positioning functions during the operation.AIM To evaluate the feasibility and safety of a new surgical method,“snare-assisted pure NOTES gallbladder-preserving surgery”.METHODS Eight miniature pigs were randomly divided into the experimental group[NOTES gallbladder-preserving surgery using the snare device,snare assisted(SA)]and the control group(NOTES gallbladder-preserving surgery without using the snare device,NC),with four cases in each group.The differences between the two groups of animals in operating time,operating workload,complications,adverse events,white blood cells,and liver function were determined.RESULTS No differences were found in the surgical success rate,gallbladder incision closure,white blood cell count,or liver function between the two groups.The total operating time,gallbladder incision blood loss,gallbladder disorientation time,gallbladder incision closure time,and workload scores on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Task Load Index were significantly reduced in the SA group(P<0.05).CONCLUSION These results indicated that snare-assisted pure NOTES gallbladder-preservation surgery using standard endoscopic instruments reduced the difficulty of operation,shortened operation time,and did not increase complications in pigs.A new method for pure NOTES gallbladder-preservation surgery was provided.

微创保胆取石术的临床研究

目的:分析研究微创保胆取石术的临床应用。方法:选取笔者所在医院2012年收治的51例微创保胆取石手术患者作为试验组,选取同期51例腹腔镜胆囊切除手术患者作为对照组,对两组患者手术术后并发症进行回顾性分析。结果:两组手术均获得成功,成功率100%,无死亡病例,所有入选病例均进行随访,随访时间从手术后至术后2年。两组术后均无胆漏、出血、切口感染发生。两组术后出现腹痛、黄疸例数比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。试验组术后腹泻的发生率低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组术后均无复发患者。结论:通过对微创保胆取石手术全程(病例选择、术中操作、术后药物控制、膳食)的干预,微创保胆取石手术术后并发症少,复发率低,效果满意,值得临床推广。