Channel characteristics and formation mechanism of Ganjiang River

Relative straight channel of the middle and upper reaches of Ganjiang has been formed due to thecontraction of mountains and hills being composed of bedrocks on both banks of the river. But however, At the lower reaches, branching channel predominates due to limited contracting force of the river banks as the evolution and development of branching channels are closely related with locations and controle effect of nodal points. There are sufficient water containing less sediments in Ganjiang River where the sharp rise and fall of the flow discharge makes the grain size of the particles rather coars. Gravels mingled with sand dominate the channel bed and components of central bars are also much coarser than those in sandy bed of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Evaluating Functions of Reservoirs'Storage Capacities and Locations on Daily Peak Attenuation for Ganjiang River Basin Using Xinanjiang Model

Flooding is the most prevalent and costly natural disaster in the world and building reservoirs is one of the major structural measures for flood control and management. In this paper, a framework was proposed to evaluate functions of reservoirs′ locations and magnitudes on daily peak flow attenuation for a large basin of China, namely Ganjiang River Basin. In this study, the Xinanjiang model was adopted to simulate inflows of the reservoirs and flood hydrographs of all sub-catchments of the basin, and simple reservoir operation rules were established for calculating outflows of the reservoirs. Four reservoirs scenarios were established to analyze reservoirs′ locations on daily peak flow attenuation. The results showed that: 1) reservoirs attenuated the peak discharges for all simulated floods, when the flood storage capacities increase as new reservoirs were built, the peak discharge attenuation by reservoirs showed an increasing tendency both in absolute and relative measures; 2) reservoirs attenuated more peak discharge relatively for small floods than for large ones; 3) reservoirs reduced the peak discharge more efficiently for the floods with single peak or multi peaks with main peak occurred first; and 4) effect of upstream reservoirs on peak attenuation decreased from upper reaches to lower reaches; upstream and midstream reservoirs played important roles in decreasing peak discharge both at middle and lower reaches, and downstream reservoirs had less effect on large peak discharge attenuation at outlet of the basin. The proposed framework of evaluating functions of multiple reservoirs′ storage capacities and locations on peak attenuation is valuable for flood control planning and management at basin scale.

Analysis of Water Quality Variation and Trend in the Ji'an Section of the Ganjiang River

Based on the monitoring data of water quality in the Ji'an section of the Ganjiang River from 2008 to 2018 by the Water Resources Monitoring Center of Ji'an City,single factor evaluation method,comprehensive pollution index method and seasonal Kendall test method were adopted to study and analyze the characteristics of surface water resources and the changing trend of water quality in the river section.The results show that the water quality in the Ji'an section of the Ganjiang River was generally good,and the water quality of each function zone reached the target requirement.The comprehensive pollution index was controlled between 0.21 and 0.40 over the years,and there was no significant change in time and space,and the water quality was relatively stable.The dissolved oxygen and permanganate index tended to improve,and there was no change in five-day biochemical oxygen demand,while ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus showed an upward trend.The water quality as a whole showed a trend of deterioration.By discussing the influencing factors of the characteristic pollutants,the causes of water quality in the Ji'an section of the Ganjiang River were further analyzed.It is suggested to strengthen the supervision and control of non-point source and point source pollution.

Accuracy and spatio-temporal variation of high resolution satellite rainfall estimate over the Ganjiang River Basin

Based on spatial interpolation rainfall of the ground gauge measurement,we proposed a method to comprehensively evaluate and compare the accuracy of satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) at three spatial scales:0.25°×0.25° grid scale,sub-catchment scale and the whole basin scale.Using this method,we evaluated the accuracy of six high-resolution monthly SREs (TRMM 3B42 V6,3B42RT V6,CMORPH,GSMaP MWR+,GSMaP MVK+ and PERSIANN) and revealed the spatio-temporal variation of the SRE accuracy based on spatial interpolated rainfall from a dense network of 325 gauges during 2003-2009 over the Ganjiang River Basin in the Southeast China.The results showed that ground gauge-calibrated 3B42 had the highest accuracy with slight overestimation,whereas the other five uncalibrated SREs had severe underestimation.The accuracy of the six SREs in wet seasons was remarkably higher than that in the dry seasons.When the time scale was expanded,the accuracy of SRE,particularly 3B42,increased.Furthermore,the accuracy of SREs was relatively low in the western mountains and northern piedmont areas,while it was relatively high in the central and southeastern hills and basins of the Ganjiang River Basin.When the space scale was expanded,the accuracy of the six SREs gradually increased.This study provided an example for of SRE accuracy validation in other regions,and a direct basis for further study of SRE-based hydrological process.

Spatial Patterns of Forest Ecosystem Services and Influencing Factors in the Ganjiang River Basin

As the major component of terrestrial ecosystems, forests play an irreplaceable role in providing eco- system services and products （e.g. biodiversity, carbon sequestration, water yield and timber）. Spatially quantifying ecosystem services and interactions will shed light on sustainable forest management. Main forest ecosystem ser- vices including carbon storage, water yield, soil retention and wood volume in the Ganjiang River Basin （GRB） were evaluated and mapped through the integrated use of INVEST3.1.0, CASA modeling and ArcGIS10.2, and relation- ships between forest ecosystem services and natural or social-economic factors were quantified and discussed based on ArcGIS10.2 and SPSS19.0. Results showed that the spatial pattern of the four ecosystem services is heterogeneous. Forests dominated by broad-leaved forest and bamboo forest in mountainous regions around the GRB provided the largest carbon storage and wood volume services, while forests dominated by Masson pine plantations or Chinese fir plantations in the northeast provided the largest water yield service. The spatial pattern of the soil retention service is more discrete than others, and forests in the southwestern regions showed larger soil erosion modulus than in the northeastern regions. Ecosystem services are closely related to the environmental process and human activities. With altitude or slope increases, the carbon storage and wood volume of forests in- creased and water yield depth and soil retention decreased. When the regional total population decreased or GDP per capita increased, carbon storage and wood volume increased. Further research into the interactions between environmental factors and ecosystem services is needed in order to understand environmental constraints when dealing with ecological problems.

Starch grain analysis reveals Late Neolithic plant utilization in the middle reaches of the Ganjiang River

Plant utilization is poorly known in South China as compared to North China.Fanchengdui, Zhuweicheng, Shinianshan, and Yinjiaping, which date back to 5-4 ka BP, are typical Neolithic sites located at the middle reaches of the Ganjiang River in Jiangxi Province.Due to the lack of systematic plant archaeological work, only rice straw and husk residues have been found in some archaeological sites in Jiangxi Province.Thirteen stone tools excavated from these sites were examined in this study.The results showed that among the plants utilized are Coix spp., Oryza spp., Vigna spp., plants from the tribe Triticeae, roots from some plants of Zingiberaceae, and other species of roots and tubers.More than 457 grains were retrieved from the 13 stone tools.The fact that Coix spp.were found in all stone tools suggests that these species were a major food source during the Neolithic era.In addition, 28 starch grains of Oryza spp.were found in 8 stone tools.The analysis also revealed that not only seeds of Gramineae but also those of Leguminosae, Zingiberaceae and other species of roots and tubers are among the plants utilized in the four Fanchengdui culture sites.These results indicate that ancient plant utilization was rather diverse, and this study elucidates the prehistoric agricultural systems of South China.

鄱阳湖流域赣江(南昌段)沉积物磷赋存形态特征及释放风险分析

本研究采用化学连续提取法,分析赣江南昌段表层沉积物磷赋存形态特征及其生物有效性,并通过等温吸附实验探讨了沉积物磷释放风险。结果显示:赣江南昌段表层沉积物总磷(TP)含量范围为235.21~702.24 mg/kg,均值为522.93 mg/kg,具有较高的空间异质性。所有采样点位中无机磷(IP)均以闭蓄态磷(Oc-P)为主要赋存形态,各形态无机磷含量特征表现为:Oc-P>铁结合态磷(Fe-P)>碎屑钙磷(De-P)>自生钙磷(ACa-P)>可交换态磷(Ex-P)>铝结合态磷(Al-P);有机磷(OP)以残渣态有机磷(Res-P_(o))为主要赋存形态,按活性划分表现为:非活性有机磷(NOP)>中活性有机磷(MLOP)>活性有机磷(LOP)。生物有效磷(BAP)含量范围为61.59~218.27 mg/kg,占TP含量的比例为27.07%。BAP总量及占TP的比例均处于较低水平,沉积物内源磷释放风险较低。BAP中Fe-P平均占比为56.72%,表明沉积物磷潜在释放风险主要来源于Fe-P。TP、Fe-P和De-P之间均存在显著相关关系,表明外源输入可能是赣江沉积物磷的主要来源。采样期间赣江南昌段沉积物磷平衡浓度(EPC 0)高于上覆水溶解性活性磷(SRP)浓度,磷吸附饱和度(DPS)均低于沉积物磷大量流失的临界值25%,表明此阶段沉积物磷虽作为上覆水的“磷源”,但出现大量释磷的可能性不高。因此,沉积物内源磷释放引起赣江水体富营养化的风险不高,这意味着赣江水体应更多关注外源输入问题。本研究结果为赣江南昌段水环境的科学管理提供了数据支撑和科学依据。

气候变化背景下赣江流域复合高温干旱事件时空演变特征

【目的】在气候变化背景下,全球多区域复合高温干旱事件频率与强度呈现增加趋势。系统揭示赣江流域复合高温干旱事件的时空演变特征,为灾害风险防范提供参考。【方法】采用1961—2021年的日最高温度和表层土壤含水量数据,评估赣江流域热浪、农业干旱和复合高温干旱事件的时空变化趋势,对比分析复合高温干旱事件与单独极端事件的特征差异。【结果】结果表明:赣江流域农业干旱事件频次呈下降趋势(-0.027场/10 a),热浪事件及复合高温干旱事件的频次呈上升趋势(0.084场/10 a、0.013场/10 a)。与1961—2000年相比,2001—2021年赣江流域农业干旱的发生频率在北部大部分区域有所下降,南部地区大部分区域有所增加;热浪事件的发生频率在全流域均呈增加趋势;复合高温干旱的发生频率在东北部有所下降,南部显著上升。与单独热浪事件和单独农业干旱事件相比,复合高温干旱下的热浪事件历时和烈度分别增加16.87%和26.25%,农业干旱事件历时和烈度分别增加10.65%和26.86%。【结论】赣江流域南部地区复合高温干旱事件发生频率显著增加;相比于单独的极端事件,复合高温干旱事件的危险性有所增强,未来应加强该区域的复合高温干旱风险防范能力。

赣江流域土地生态安全与社会经济发展耦合协调研究

以县级行政单位为基础,构建赣江流域土地生态安全评价指标体系和社会经济发展评价指标体系,以及两者的耦合协调模型。结果表明:在2000-2020年间赣江流域土地生态安全指数和社会经济发展指数均呈现“N”型发展趋势,两者耦合协调度在结构上呈波动上升趋势;2000-2020年间赣江流域耦合协调度的莫兰指数显著增加,表明耦合协调度具有显著的空间集聚特征,冷点区主要集中在上游丘陵地区,热点区集中在下游平原地区。赣江流域的耦合协调度首要障碍因素历经了生态、经济和医疗的变迁,社会经济系统的低水平发展是影响耦合协调度的最大掣肘。应进一步强化在绿色可持续发展模式下,激活社会经济发展活力,促进土地生态安全与社会经济高质量耦合发展。

湘赣流域旅游产业效率的时空演化与比较——基于“十二五”和“十三五”时期的数据

旅游效率是衡量旅游业高质量发展的重要指标之一。通过建立五个要素层、六个指标的投入体系和两个要素层、四个指标的产出体系,运用DEA-MI模型,探讨赣江流域和湘江流域在“十二五”和“十三五”时期旅游业的时空变化,可以为流域旅游效率的发展提供参考。在时序演进上,两江流域旅游效率呈“M”型走向趋势;“十二五”时期赣江流域依靠优势资源取胜,“十三五”时期湘江流域依靠“头部文化”转败为胜;其中技术水平的发展速度是影响旅游业发展的主导因素。在空间分布上,两江流域标准差椭圆始终呈现“东北—西南”方向;赣江流域的空间格局变动主要体现在“十三五”时期,湘江流域则主要集中在“十二五”时期;长、潭、永包围圈的发展模式是湘江流域旅游业成功的关键。

基于水文学法的生态流量适宜性评价研究

水资源开发利用改变了河流天然水文情势,影响了河流生态环境,提供适宜的生态流量对保障河流系统健康具有重要意义。考虑径流非一致性及数据冗余,运用M-K检验法、累积距平法、PCA-IHA指标体系等能更准确地判断河流水文情势的改变程度;基于生态流量计算的水文学法,建立了完整的生态流量适宜性评价体系,提出了阈值区间保证率、偏差指数、达标率等3个评价指标,并综合成适宜性指数这一综合指标,在赣江干流进行应用。结果表明:①赣江干流1960~2015年的水文情势改变度较低,变异点为1991年;②各水文学法在所提出的评价指标中各有优劣,且适宜性指数差异较大,说明该评价体系可以较好地筛选出对研究区域适用的计算方法,其中赣江干流最适宜的为逐月频率法,适宜性指数为0.8。研究成果可为完善生态流量适宜性评价体系提供科学参考。

赣江流域水文情势时空差异性及变化分析

赣江流域作为鄱阳湖流域最大的子流域,是长江中下游的重要水源区,研究赣江流域的水文情势可以拓展对该区域水文演变机制的认识。基于赣江流域2000~2021年的日降雨量和径流监测数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验以及相关分析等方法,结合HYPE水文模拟和PEST自动率定技术对参数敏感性指数、径流量及降雨量等指标进行水文过程及其时空变异的研究。结果表明:①流域内的水文变量呈现一定的时空变化。在年尺度上,径流量和降雨量有一定的波动,总体上呈现小幅上升趋势,两者之间存在明显的正相关关系,同时流域内水库运行也可能对水文机制产生一定影响;在月尺度上,径流量和降雨量均在6月达到峰值,1月达到最低值;在空间分布上,年均径流和降雨量在流域东部和北部均较大。②在水文过程模拟中,描述发生大孔隙流和地表径流的土壤水含量阈值的参数mactrsm相对综合敏感性最大。③HYPE模型能够较好地模拟赣江流域及其代表性子流域宜丰河流域的径流动态变化(0.60≤E_(ns)≤0.86),宜丰河小流域出口(宜丰水文站)的流量模拟效果明显低于赣江流域出口(外洲水文站)。在年尺度上,宜丰站子流域的土壤湿度、蒸发量和地表径流整体上呈现上升趋势;在空间分布上,外洲站子流域相较于宜丰站子流域,土壤湿度更高、蒸发量较低、地表径流更大。④根据基流分割,宜丰站子流域和外洲站子流域的径流机制有所不同,表现在宜丰站子流域饱和地下水对总径流的贡献较大,而外洲站子流域地表径流对总径流的贡献较大。流域特征非均质性和水文过程变异是造成模型精度空间差异的主要原因。

考虑记忆时间的LSTM模型在赣江流域径流预报中的应用

在气候变化条件下,准确的径流预测对水资源的规划与管理十分重要。本文基于长短时记忆神经网络(LSTM)模型,采用赣江流域外洲、峡江以及栋背水文站的逐日流量以及CN05.1日降水数据构建3个不同面积流域的径流预测模型,并通过设置不同情景分析:模型的有效预见期与不同流域平均产汇流时间之间的关系,有效预见期内LSTM径流预测模型精度与记忆时间之间的关系,不同长度的预见期与模型最佳记忆时间之间的关系,同时探讨LSTM径流预测所需的记忆时间与流域面积的关系。结果表明:(1)综合考虑降水和前期径流情景下的径流预测效果最好,当预见期为1 d时,外洲、峡江、栋背站的纳什效率系数(NSE)分别可达0.98、0.96以及0.90;且其有效预见期与仅考虑降水信息的有效预见期相同,均与流域平均产汇流时间相近。(2)随着预见期的延长,不同情景下的预测精度均有不同程度的下降,其中仅考虑前期径流情景的下降率最大,说明降水信息较前期径流对径流预测效果的提升更重要。同时,随着流域面积的增加,相同预见期内径流预测精度均有所提升。(3)当预见期相同时,随记忆时间的延长,不同径流预测模型的预测精度均先上升至最高,接着具有下降趋势,最后逐渐趋于稳定。且在有效预见期内,随着预见期的延长,最佳记忆时间均有增大趋势,当达到最长的有效预见期时,对应的最佳记忆时间均为14 d。此外,在赣江流域的模拟结果表明,随着流域面积的增大,LSTM的最佳记忆时间减小。研究结果可为赣江流域的径流预报提供参考,同时有助于推求其他流域采用机器学习进行径流预测所需的最佳记忆时间。

赣江中游浅层地下水水化学特征演化及成因分析

赣江是江西省主要水源,研究其地下水水化学特征及成因机理对流域水质保护至关重要。选取赣江中游吉安市井开区为研究区,于2019年丰-平-枯水期各采集研究区浅层地下水样45组,运用数理统计、Durov图、Gibbs图、离子比例系数、PHREEQC反向模拟等方法,研究了吉安市井开区浅层地下水的水化学分布特征和组成类型,讨论了其主控因素、主成分离子来源,并开展了典型径流路径水文地球化学模拟。结果表明:研究区浅层地下水属低矿化度淡水,主要阴阳离子为HCO_(3)^(-)、Ca^(2+),个别样本中NH_(4)^(+)、NO_(3)^(-)、SO_(4)^(2-)的异常值均与人类活动有关,水化学类型主要有HCO_(3)-Ca型、HCO_(3)-Ca·Mg型、HCO_(3)·SO_(4)-Ca型3种;研究区地下水化学形成的主控因素为岩石风化作用;离子比值关系表明水中组分主要源于碳酸盐岩矿物的溶解作用,其中Na^(+)、K^(+)主要源于盐岩的溶解,SO_(4)^(2-)源于少量蒸发岩矿物(石膏)的溶解,Ca^(2+)、Mg^(2+)源于方解石、白云石和硅酸盐矿物的溶解;水文地球化学反向模拟表明水流路径均发生白云石、石膏、岩盐的溶解作用,结合氯碱指数,地下水流存在一定的逆向阳离子交换作用。研究成果可为赣江中游地区地下水开发利用与保护提供理论依据。

变化环境下赣江流域水文情势演变及归因分析

为揭示赣江流域水文情势演变特征及其主要驱动因素,根据赣江外洲站1953~2020年实测流量和水位资料,采用滑动平均法、Kendall秩次相关检验、Spearman秩次相关检验、累积距平检验、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动秩和检验、Pettitt检验和有序聚类检验法分析该站流量和水位的变化特征,采用随机森林模型和残差分析法定量评估人类活动和气候变化对流量及水位变化的影响。结果表明:(1)外洲站年尺度和月尺度平均流量均呈现不显著的增大趋势,年平均流量增幅为10.5%,增大速率为3.2 (m^(3)·s^(-1))/a;年尺度和月尺度平均水位均呈现显著的下降趋势,年平均水位降幅为-14.3%,下降速率为-0.04 m/a。(2) 1991年为外洲站年平均流量序列的突变年份,影响期较基准期增大了205 m^(3)/s;定量分析气候变化和人类活动对流量变化的贡献率,其中气候变化占92.8%,赣江流域降水增多是使外洲站流量略有增大的主要原因。(3) 2002年为外洲站年平均水位序列的突变年份,影响期较基准期下降了2.20 m,人类活动对水位变化的贡献率占93.8%;水利工程建设、流域综合治理等人类活动的影响,改变了河流天然的水沙规律,外洲站断面受冲淤变化和人工采砂等影响,河床逐年下切趋势明显,这是造成外洲站水位显著下降的主要原因。研究成果可为变化环境下流域水资源利用提供参考。

赣江尾闾南支枢纽通航水流条件数值模拟研究

拦河枢纽的施工和运营将显著改变河道的水流条件,对通航产生潜在的影响,因此有必要对枢纽工程不同时期的通航水流条件进行研究和评价。以赣江南支枢纽工程河段为研究对象,建立南支河段二维水动力数值模型,模拟施工期和运营期的河道水动力过程,分析枢纽工程对航道通航水流条件的影响。结果表明:各时期航道内流态相对平顺,不会对通航产生不利影响,在大部分流量工况下水流条件均满足通航要求;仅在施工一期10 a一遇工况下,临时航道有部分区域流速超过赣江航道通航流速控制指标(2.00 m/s),长度约为2 000 m,流速最大值为2.54 m/s;在施工二期、运营期,河段航道内水流条件均满足通航要求。研究结果可为赣江南支枢纽通航安全和运行调度提供参考。

基于分布式时变增益水文模型和CN05.1降水数据的赣江流域径流模拟研究

水文模型是径流模拟的重要手段,降水是水文循环的重要组成部分,模型的选择和降水数据的质量对流域径流模拟都具有重要意义。以赣江流域为研究区域,通过对比CN05.1降水数据与站点线性插值降水数据,分析CN05.1降水数据的可靠性,评估基于分布式时变增益水文模型(DTVGM)和CN05.1降水数据在赣江流域径流模拟的适用性。研究表明:(1)CN05.1降水和站点插值降水多年月平均降水年内变化过程类似,空间分布相关性很高,R均值为0.90,CN05.1日降水与站点插值日降水相关性较高,RMSE均小于等于7.52 mm,R均大于等于0.81;(2)基于CN05.1降水和站点插值降水数据模拟了赣江流域新田等6个水文站1961—2009年的流量,模拟流量在多数大流量处大于实测流量,表明模型对于大流量的模拟存在高估现象;(3)无论是日径流还是月径流,基于CN05.1降水数据的径流模拟精度均较高,且月径流模拟要优于日径流。因此,基于DTVGM模型和CN05.1降水数据在赣江流域径流模拟具有较高的适用性。

赣江中游梯级水库群联合发电调度补偿效益分析研究

为解决赣江中游水库群没有统一有效的联合调度方式而发电量较低的问题,本文探索了赣江中游梯级水库群的联合发电及其补偿效益,通过研究赣江中游水库群在单库优化调度和联合优化调度下,以发电量最大为目标函数,采用DPSA-POA算法与DE智能算法相结合对模型进行求解,研究在不同典型年下水库发电调度补偿效益。结果表明:在丰水年(1995)、枯水年(1991)、平水年(1985)不同典型年下,水库联合调度比单库调度增发电量0.01%、0.55%、0.91%,相应减少弃水2.26%、5.01%、10.72%,在来水越少的年份,补偿效益更为明显,研究结果可为赣江中游梯级水库群联合调度补偿效益分析及其梯级水库群开展合作调度提供理论依据。

微塑料断面分布的不均一性——以赣江水域赣州段为例

塑料由于其优异的性能被广泛的应用于生产生活,然而其在环境中不易降解,这导致环境当中存在着许多微塑料,可能造成潜在的生态环境风险。因此,明确水体当中微塑料的丰度并对其进行风险评估对于降低微塑料带来的安全问题有着至关重要的作用。然而,此前关于流域内微塑料丰度的研究多停留于河流表层水体的研究,忽略了水平方向取样点位以及取样深度对微塑料分布造成的影响,所得出的结论代表性不足。赣江是长江中游的主要支流,在赣州城市区段的代表断面处取样分析,横向与纵向相结合分析了该断面处微塑料的丰度、颜色形态、粒径、聚合物情况的变化情况,并通过生态风险指数法计算了微塑料风险等级。结果表明:该代表断面微塑料丰度为0.25-0.35 pieces∙L^(-1),表层水、中层水和底层水的平均微塑料丰度分别为2.65、2.03和0.91pieces∙L^(-1),微塑料丰度横向范围表现处越靠近河岸处越大,纵向范围随着取样深度的增大而减小;微塑料主要形状为纤维和碎片,以黑色为主,粒径范围在0.125-3.000 mm的微塑料的占比超过94%;集合种类为聚乙烯、聚丙烯、聚苯乙烯、聚酰胺、乙烯-醋酸乙烯共聚物、聚碳酸酯、聚对苯二甲酸乙二脂和聚氯乙烯;研究区域微塑料潜在风险等级为Ⅱ级。总体而言,赣江赣州城市段河流微塑料丰度在横向和纵向分布上是不均匀的,污染程度总体而言相对较轻。该研究将促进对城市水体当中垂直领域微塑料分布特征的理解,对其他水体流域开展微塑料的相关调研具有指导意义。

赣江流域水文干旱事件重现期计算方法

针对以径流相对亏缺状态表征的水文干旱事件,采用3种常用的概率分布函数Log-normal、Gamma和Normal,拟合了赣江外洲站实测年径流资料;利用外洲站年径流的统计特征,推导了干旱历时和干旱强度2种典型干旱特征变量的理论概率分布函数的参数;计算了期望间隔时间定义下干旱历时内累积干旱强度达到某一阈值的干旱事件的重现期,并采用Monte Carlo随机模拟技术进行了验证。结果表明:根据年径流统计信息解析推求水文干旱事件的重现期,具有较强的统计基础和可信的精度,能够一定程度克服依靠有限观测水文序列进行干旱事件重现期推断的样本偏差,可为定量评估流域干旱风险,支撑流域水安全保障提供新的思路。