On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

A Robust Indoor Localization Algorithm Based on Polynomial Fitting and Gaussian Mixed Model

Wireless sensor network(WSN)positioning has a good effect on indoor positioning,so it has received extensive attention in the field of positioning.Non-line-of sight(NLOS)is a primary challenge in indoor complex environment.In this paper,a robust localization algorithm based on Gaussian mixture model and fitting polynomial is proposed to solve the problem of NLOS error.Firstly,fitting polynomials are used to predict the measured values.The residuals of predicted and measured values are clustered by Gaussian mixture model(GMM).The LOS probability and NLOS probability are calculated according to the clustering centers.The measured values are filtered by Kalman filter(KF),variable parameter unscented Kalman filter(VPUKF)and variable parameter particle filter(VPPF)in turn.The distance value processed by KF and VPUKF and the distance value processed by KF,VPUKF and VPPF are combined according to probability.Finally,the maximum likelihood method is used to calculate the position coordinate estimation.Through simulation comparison,the proposed algorithm has better positioning accuracy than several comparison algorithms in this paper.And it shows strong robustness in strong NLOS environment.

Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

Improved cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation of mixed additive and multiplicative random error model

To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.

A blast furnace fault monitoring algorithm with low false alarm rate:Ensemble of greedy dynamic principal component analysis-Gaussian mixture model

The large blast furnace is essential equipment in the process of iron and steel manufacturing. Due to the complex operation process and frequent fluctuations of variables, conventional monitoring methods often bring false alarms. To address the above problem, an ensemble of greedy dynamic principal component analysis-Gaussian mixture model(EGDPCA-GMM) is proposed in this paper. First, PCA-GMM is introduced to deal with the collinearity and the non-Gaussian distribution of blast furnace data.Second, in order to explain the dynamics of data, the greedy algorithm is used to determine the extended variables and their corresponding time lags, so as to avoid introducing unnecessary noise. Then the bagging ensemble is adopted to cooperate with greedy extension to eliminate the randomness brought by the greedy algorithm and further reduce the false alarm rate(FAR) of monitoring results. Finally, the algorithm is applied to the blast furnace of a large iron and steel group in South China to verify performance.Compared with the basic algorithms, the proposed method achieves lowest FAR, while keeping missed alarm rate(MAR) remain stable.

ALMOST SURELY TIME-SPACE INTERMITTENCY FOR THE PARABOLIC ANDERSON MODEL WITH A LOG-CORRELATED GAUSSIAN FIELD

In this paper, we consider the continuous parabolic Anderson model with a logcorrelated Gaussian field, and obtain the precise quenched long-time asymptotics and spatial asymptotics. To overcome the difficulties arising from the log-correlated Gaussian field in the proof of the lower bound of the spatial asymptotics, we first establish the relation between quenched long-time asymptotics and spatial asymptotics, and then get the lower bound of the spatial asymptotics through the lower bound of the quenched long-time asymptotics.

Mathematical modeling of mixed convective MHD Falkner-Skan squeezed Sutterby multiphase flow with non-Fourier heat flux theory and porosity

In a wide variety of mechanical and industrial applications,e.g.,space cooling,nuclear reactor cooling,medicinal utilizations(magnetic drug targeting),energy generation,and heat conduction in tissues,the heat transfer phenomenon is involved.Fourier’s law of heat conduction has been used as the foundation for predicting the heat transfer behavior in a variety of real-world contexts.This model’s production of a parabolic energy expression,which means that an initial disturbance would immediately affect the system under investigation,is one of its main drawbacks.Therefore,numerous researchers worked on such problem to resolve this issue.At last,this problem was resolved by Cattaneo by adding relaxation time for heat flux in Fourier’s law,which was defined as the time required to establish steady heat conduction once a temperature gradient is imposed.Christov offered a material invariant version of Cattaneo’s model by taking into account the upper-connected derivative of the Oldroyd model.Nowadays,both models are combinedly known as the Cattaneo-Christov(CC)model.In this attempt,the mixed convective MHD Falkner-Skan Sutterby nanofluid flow is addressed towards a wedge surface in the presence of the variable external magnetic field.The CC model is incorporated instead of Fourier’s law for the examination of heat transfer features in the energy expression.A two-phase nanofluid model is utilized for the implementation of nano-concept.The nonlinear system of equations is tackled through the bvp4c technique in the MATLAB software 2016.The influence of pertinent flow parameters is discussed and displayed through different sketches.Major and important results are summarized in the conclusion section.Furthermore,in both cases of wall-through flow(i.e.,suction and injection effects),the porosity parameters increase the flow speed,and decrease the heat transport and the influence of drag forces.

A novel model to evaluate spatial structure in thinned conifer-broadleaved mixed natural forests

In order to ensure the effective analysis and reconstruction of forests,it is key to ensure the quantitative description of their spatial structure.In this paper,a distance model for the optimal stand spatial structure based on weighted Voronoi diagrams is proposed.In particular,we provide a novel methodological model for the comprehensive evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands in natural mixed conifer-broadleaved forests and the formulation of management decision plans.The applicability of the rank evaluation and the optimal solution distance model are compared and assessed for different standard sample plots of natural mixed conifer-broadleaved forests.The effect of crown width on the spatial structure unit of the trees is observed to be higher than that of the diameter at breast height.Moreover,the influence of crown length is greater than that of tree height.There are nine possible spatial structure units determined by the weighted Voronoi diagram for the number of neighboring trees in the central tree,with an average intersection of neighboring crowns reaching 80%.The rank rating of natural forest sample plots is correlated with the optimal solution distance model,and their results are generally consistent for natural forests.However,the rank rating is not able to provide a quantitative assessment.The optimal solution distance model is observed to be more comprehensive than traditional methods for the evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands.It can effectively reflect the trends in realistic stand spatial structure factors close to or far from the ideal structure point,and accurately assesses the forest spatial structure.The proposed optimal solution distance model improves the integrated evaluation of the spatial structure of forest stands and provides solid theoretical and technical support for sustainable forest management.

Simulation analysis of wear characteristics of connecting rod bearing bush based on improved mixed lubrication model

The failure rate of crankpin bearing bush of diesel engine under complex working conditions such as high temperature,dynamic load and variable speed is high.After serious wear,it is easy to deteriorate the stress state of connecting rod body and connecting rod bolt,resulting in serious accidents such as connecting rod fracture and body damage.Based on the mixed lubrication characteristics of connecting rod big endbearing shell of diesel engine under high explosion pressure impact load,an improved mixed lubrication mechanism model is established,which considers the influence of viscoelastic micro deformation of bearing bush material,integrates the full film lubrication model and dry friction model,couples dynamic equation of connecting rod.Then the actual lubrication state of big end bearing shell is simulated numerically.Further,the correctness of the theoretical research results is verified by fault simulation experiments.The results show that the high-frequency impact signal with fixed angle domain characteristics will be generated after the serious wear of bearing bush and the deterioration of lubrication state.The fault feature capture and alarm can be realized through the condition monitoring system,which can be applied to the fault monitoring of connecting rod bearing bush of diesel engine in the future.

Research on Mixed Logic Dynamic Modeling and Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control of Multi-Inverter Parallel System

Parallel connection of multiple inverters is an important means to solve the expansion,reserve and protection of distributed power generation,such as photovoltaics.In view of the shortcomings of traditional droop control methods such as weak anti-interference ability,low tracking accuracy of inverter output voltage and serious circulation phenomenon,a finite control set model predictive control(FCS-MPC)strategy of microgrid multiinverter parallel system based on Mixed Logical Dynamical(MLD)modeling is proposed.Firstly,the MLD modeling method is introduced logical variables,combining discrete events and continuous events to form an overall differential equation,which makes the modeling more accurate.Then a predictive controller is designed based on the model,and constraints are added to the objective function,which can not only solve the real-time changes of the control system by online optimization,but also effectively obtain a higher tracking accuracy of the inverter output voltage and lower total harmonic distortion rate(Total Harmonics Distortion,THD);and suppress the circulating current between the inverters,to obtain a good dynamic response.Finally,the simulation is carried out onMATLAB/Simulink to verify the correctness of the model and the rationality of the proposed strategy.This paper aims to provide guidance for the design and optimal control of multi-inverter parallel systems.

Calibration of quantitative rescattering model for simulating vortex high-order harmonic generation driven by Laguerre–Gaussian beam with nonzero orbital angular momentum

We calibrate the macroscopic vortex high-order harmonic generation(HHG)obtained by the quantitative rescattering(QRS)model to compute single-atom induced dipoles against that by solving the time-dependent Schr?dinger equation(TDSE).We show that the QRS perfectly agrees with the TDSE under the favorable phase-matching condition,and the QRS can accurately predict the main features in the spatial profiles of vortex HHG if the phase-matching condition is not good.We uncover that harmonic emissions from short and long trajectories are adjusted by the phase-matching condition through the time-frequency analysis and the QRS can simulate the vortex HHG accurately only when the interference between two trajectories is absent.This work confirms that it is an efficient way to employ the QRS model in the single-atom response for precisely simulating the macroscopic vortex HHG.

Propagation of Gaussian Schell-Model Array Beams through a Jet Engine Exhaust

Here a Gaussian Shell Model Array (GSMA) beam is used to investigate the propagation characteristics in the jet engine exhaust region. It has great significance to improve various optical systems for wide application in trapping cold atoms, creating gratings, and atmospheric optical communication. We calculate analytical formulas for the spectral density (SD) and the propagation factors Mx2 and My2 of a GSMA beam. The influence of inner scale of turbulence in the jet engine exhaust region on its power spectrum has been also analyzed. According to these results, the influence of turbulence in a jet engine exhaust on a GSMA beam has been reduced by changing the parameters of light source and turbulence. For example, it is an excellent tool for mitigation of the jet engine exhaust-induced anisotropy of turbulence to increase the source coherence length, the root-mean-squared (rms) beam width, the wavelength or reduce the outer scale of turbulence.

Comparison of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models in determining moisture recycling ratio

Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.

The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

Evaluation of Nonbreaking Wave-Induced Mixing Parameterization Schemes Based on a One-Dimensional Ocean Model

Surface waves have a considerable effect on vertical mixing in the upper ocean.In the past two decades,the vertical mixing induced through nonbreaking surface waves has been used in ocean and climate models to improve the simulation of the upper ocean.Thus far,several nonbreaking wave-induced mixing parameterization schemes have been proposed;however,no quantitative comparison has been performed among them.In this paper,a one-dimensional ocean model was used to compare the performances of five schemes,including those of Qiao et al.(Q),Hu and Wang(HW),Huang and Qiao(HQ),Pleskachevsky et al.(P),and Ghantous and Babanin(GB).Similar to previous studies,all of these schemes can decrease the simulated sea surface temperature(SST),increase the subsurface temperature,and deepen the mixed layer,thereby alleviating the common thermal deviation problem of the ocean model for upper ocean simulation.Among these schemes,the HQ scheme exhibited the weakest wave-induced mixing effect,and the HW scheme exhibited the strongest effect;the other three schemes exhibited roughly the same effect.In particular,the Q and P schemes exhibited nearly the same effect.In the simulation based on observations from the Ocean Weather Station Papa,the HQ scheme exhibited the best performance,followed by the Q scheme.In the experiment with the HQ scheme,the root-mean-square deviation of the simulated SST from the observations was 0.43℃,and the mixed layer depth(MLD)was 2.0 m.As a contrast,the deviations of the SST and MLD reached 1.25℃ and 8.4 m,respectively,in the experiment without wave-induced mixing.

Persymmetric adaptive polarimetric detection of subspace range-spread targets in compound Gaussian sea clutter

This paper focuses on the adaptive detection of range and Doppler dual-spread targets in non-homogeneous and nonGaussian sea clutter.The sea clutter from two polarimetric channels is modeled as a compound-Gaussian model with different parameters,and the target is modeled as a subspace rangespread target model.The persymmetric structure is used to model the clutter covariance matrix,in order to reduce the reliance on secondary data of the designed detectors.Three adaptive polarimetric persymmetric detectors are designed based on the generalized likelihood ratio test(GLRT),Rao test,and Wald test.All the proposed detectors have constant falsealarm rate property with respect to the clutter texture,the speckle covariance matrix.Experimental results on simulated and measured data show that three adaptive detectors outperform the competitors in different clutter environments,and the proposed GLRT detector has the best detection performance under different parameters.

A unified Minorization-Maximization approach for estimation of general mixture models

The mixed distribution model is often used to extract information from heteroge-neous data and perform modeling analysis.When the density function of mixed distribution is complicated or the variable dimension is high,it usually brings challenges to the parameter es-timation of the mixed distribution model.The application of MM algorithm can avoid complex expectation calculations,and can also solve the problem of high-dimensional optimization by decomposing the objective function.In this paper,MM algorithm is applied to the parameter estimation problem of mixed distribution model.The method of assembly and decomposition is used to construct the substitute function with separable parameters,which avoids the problems of complex expectation calculations and the inversion of high-dimensional matrices.

A Probabilistic Trust Model and Control Algorithm to Protect 6G Networks against Malicious Data Injection Attacks in Edge Computing Environments

Future 6G communications are envisioned to enable a large catalogue of pioneering applications.These will range from networked Cyber-Physical Systems to edge computing devices,establishing real-time feedback control loops critical for managing Industry 5.0 deployments,digital agriculture systems,and essential infrastructures.The provision of extensive machine-type communications through 6G will render many of these innovative systems autonomous and unsupervised.While full automation will enhance industrial efficiency significantly,it concurrently introduces new cyber risks and vulnerabilities.In particular,unattended systems are highly susceptible to trust issues:malicious nodes and false information can be easily introduced into control loops.Additionally,Denialof-Service attacks can be executed by inundating the network with valueless noise.Current anomaly detection schemes require the entire transformation of the control software to integrate new steps and can only mitigate anomalies that conform to predefined mathematical models.Solutions based on an exhaustive data collection to detect anomalies are precise but extremely slow.Standard models,with their limited understanding of mobile networks,can achieve precision rates no higher than 75%.Therefore,more general and transversal protection mechanisms are needed to detect malicious behaviors transparently.This paper introduces a probabilistic trust model and control algorithm designed to address this gap.The model determines the probability of any node to be trustworthy.Communication channels are pruned for those nodes whose probability is below a given threshold.The trust control algorithmcomprises three primary phases,which feed themodel with three different probabilities,which are weighted and combined.Initially,anomalous nodes are identified using Gaussian mixture models and clustering technologies.Next,traffic patterns are studied using digital Bessel functions and the functional scalar product.Finally,the information coherence and content are analyzed.The noise content and abnormal information sequences are detected using a Volterra filter and a bank of Finite Impulse Response filters.An experimental validation based on simulation tools and environments was carried out.Results show the proposed solution can successfully detect up to 92%of malicious data injection attacks.

An Efficient Local Radial Basis Function Method for Image Segmentation Based on the Chan-Vese Model

In this paper,we consider the Chan–Vese(C-V)model for image segmentation and obtain its numerical solution accurately and efficiently.For this purpose,we present a local radial basis function method based on a Gaussian kernel(GA-LRBF)for spatial discretization.Compared to the standard radial basis functionmethod,this approach consumes less CPU time and maintains good stability because it uses only a small subset of points in the whole computational domain.Additionally,since the Gaussian function has the property of dimensional separation,the GA-LRBF method is suitable for dealing with isotropic images.Finally,a numerical scheme that couples GA-LRBF with the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method is applied to the C-V model,and a comparison of some numerical results demonstrates that this scheme achieves much more reliable image segmentation.

Reinforcement Learning Based Quantization Strategy Optimal Assignment Algorithm for Mixed Precision

The quantization algorithm compresses the original network by reducing the numerical bit width of the model,which improves the computation speed. Because different layers have different redundancy and sensitivity to databit width. Reducing the data bit width will result in a loss of accuracy. Therefore, it is difficult to determinethe optimal bit width for different parts of the network with guaranteed accuracy. Mixed precision quantizationcan effectively reduce the amount of computation while keeping the model accuracy basically unchanged. In thispaper, a hardware-aware mixed precision quantization strategy optimal assignment algorithm adapted to low bitwidth is proposed, and reinforcement learning is used to automatically predict the mixed precision that meets theconstraints of hardware resources. In the state-space design, the standard deviation of weights is used to measurethe distribution difference of data, the execution speed feedback of simulated neural network accelerator inferenceis used as the environment to limit the action space of the agent, and the accuracy of the quantization model afterretraining is used as the reward function to guide the agent to carry out deep reinforcement learning training. Theexperimental results show that the proposed method obtains a suitable model layer-by-layer quantization strategyunder the condition that the computational resources are satisfied, and themodel accuracy is effectively improved.The proposed method has strong intelligence and certain universality and has strong application potential in thefield of mixed precision quantization and embedded neural network model deployment.