Dynamical Framework of IAP Nine-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The dynamical framework of the nine-level version of the IAP AGCM is presented in this paper. The emphasis of the model's description is put on the following two aspects:(1) A model's standard atmosphere, which is a satisfactory approximation to the observed troposphere and lower stratosphere standard atmosphere, is introduced into the equations of the model to permit a more accurate calculation of the vertical transport terms, especially near the tropopause; (2) The vertical levels of the model are carefully selected to guarantee a smooth dependence of layer thickness upon pressure in order to reduce the truncation error involved in the unequal interval vertical finite-differencing. For testing the model, two kinds of linear baroclinic Rossby-Haurwitz waves, one of which has a dynamically stable vertical structure and the other has a relatively unstable one, are constructed to provide initial conditions for numerical experiments. The two waves have been integrated for more than 300 days and 100 days respectively by using the model and both of them are propagating westward with almost identical phase-speed during the time period of the integrations. No obvious change of the wave patterns is found at the levels in the model's troposphere. The amplitudes of both two waves at the uppermost level, however, exhibit rather significant oscillation with time, of which the periods are exactly 20 days and 25 days espectively.The explanation of this interesting phenomena is still under investigation.

A Study on Sulfate Optical Properties and Direct Radiative Forcing Using LASG-IAP General Circulation Model

The direct radiative forcing （DRF） of sulfate aerosols depends highly on the atmospheric sulfate loading and the meteorology, both of which undergo strong regional and seasonal variations. Because the optical properties of sulfate aerosols are also sensitive to atmospheric relative humidity, in this study we first examine the scheme for optical properties that considers hydroscopic growth. Next, we investigate the seasonal and regional distributions of sulfate DRF using the sulfate loading simulated from NCAR CAM-Chem together with the meteorology modeled from a spectral atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） developed by LASG-IAP. The global annual-mean sulfate loading of 3.44 mg m-2 is calculated to yield the DRF of -1.03 and -0.57 W m-2 for clear-sky and all-sky conditions, respectively. However, much larger values occur on regional bases. For example, the maximum all-sky sulfate DRF over Europe, East Asia, and North America can be up to -4.0 W m-2. The strongest all-sky sulfate DRF occurs in the Northern Hemispheric July, with a hemispheric average of -1.26 W m-2. The study results also indicate that the regional DRF are strongly affected by cloud and relative humidity, which vary considerably among the regions during different seasons. This certainly raises the issue that the biases in model-sinmlated regional meteorology can introduce biases into the sulfate DRF. Hence, the model processes associated with atmospheric humidity and cloud physics should be modified in great depth to improve the simulations of the LASG-IAP AGCM and to reduce the uncertainty of sulfate direct effects on global and regional climate in these simulations.

The Seasonal Climatic Simulation of 9000 Years before Present by Using the IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The seasonal cycle of the climate of 9000 years before present was simulated with the IAP two-level atmospheric general circulation model. The incoming solar radiation was specified from the orbital parameters for 9000 years ago. The boundary conditions of that time were prescribed to the present value because of the small differences between the two. The change in radiation makes temperature to be higher in summer and lower in winter over large areas of the land; and the increased temperature contrast between the land and the ocean strengthens the summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation over there. The asymmetry of temperature change between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere and between summer and winter still exists, which agrees with that get from the previous perpetual experiments.

The African Climate as Predicted by the IAP Grid-Point Nine-Layer Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-9L-AGCM)

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Diagnostic Study on Seasonality and Interannual Variability of Wind Field

Based on NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data during 1980-1994, seasonally and interannual variability of the horizontal wind field are studied. It is shown that: (1) In the lower troposphere, there exist regions with maximum of seasonally in the tropics, the subtropics and high latitudes, which is called the tropical, subtropical and temperate-frigid monsoon region respectively. In the upper troposphere, the subtropical monsoon combines with the tropical monsoon as a nonseparably planetary monsoon system. In the stratosphere, there is a belt with very large seasonality in each hemisphere caused by the inversely seasonal circulation and by the establishment and collapse of the night jet. (2) Seasonal variation of the large-scale monsoon may generally be attributed to that of the zonal wind, however, seasonal variation of the meridional wind is of great importance in East Asian monsoon region. (3) In monsoon region, interannual variability of the atmospheric general circulation is closely related to seasonal variation of monsoon, while in the tropical Pacific, it may considerably be influenced by the external factors such as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with El Nino or La Nina event. Moreover, interannual variability undergoes a pronounced annual cycle.

Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG(GAMIL)

Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation （IAV）, and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming （cooling） in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO. We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude： （1） successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; （2） more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; （3） the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.

The Springtime North Asia Cyclone Activity Index and the Southern Annular Mode

The relationship between the North Asia cyclone （NAC） activity and the Southern Annular Mode （SAM） is documented in this research. The definition of the NAC index （NACI） is based on the atmospheric relative vorticity in North Asia. The analysis yields a significant positive correlation between previous winter Southern Annular Mode index （SAMI） and spring NACI in the interannual variability, with a correlation coefficient of 0.51 during 1948-2000. Analysis of the NAC-related and SAM-related atmospheric general circulation variability demonstrates such a relationship. The study further reveals that when the winter SAM becomes strong, the springtime atmospheric convection in tropical western Pacific will intensify and the local Hadley circulation will be strengthened. As a result, the abnormal subsiding motion over South China makes the temperature gradient intensified in the low level and strengthens the jet in the high level, both of which are beneficial to the development of NAC activity.

Evaluation of Spring Persistent Rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 AGCM Simulations

The progress made fi＇om Phase 3 to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP3 to CMIP5） in simulating spring persistent rainfall （SPR） over East Asia was examined from the outputs of nine atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs）. The majority of the models overestimated the precipitation over the SPR domain, with the mean latitude of the SPR belt shifting to the north. The overestimation was about 1mm d-1 in the CMIP3 ensemble, and the northward displacement was about 3°, while in the CMIP5 ensemble the overestimation was suppressed to 0.7 mm d-i and the northward shift decreased to 2.5°. The SPR features a northeast-southwest extended rain belt with a slope of 0.4°N/°E. The CMIP5 ensemble yielded a smaller slope （0.2°N/°E）, whereas the CMIP3 ensemble featured an unre- alistic zonally-distributed slope. The CMIP5 models also showed better skill in simulating the interannual variability of SPR. Previous studies have suggested that the zonal land-sea thermal contrast and sensible heat flux over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are important for the existence of SPR. These two ther- mal factors were captured well in the CMIP5 ensemble, but underestimated in the CMIP3 ensemble. The variability of zonal land-sea thermal contrast is positively correlated with the rainfall amount over the main SPR center, but it was found that an overestimated thermal contrast between East Asia and South China Sea is a common problem in most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Simulation of the meridional thermal contrast is therefore important for the future improvement of current AGCMs.

Modelling the January and July Climate of 9000 Years before Present

The January and July climate of 9000 years before present was simulated through a set of perpetual experimentsby means of the newly designed 9 Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) in the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). The results were analysed and compared with previous results simulated by the IAP 2Level AGCM. There exists good agreement between them. It is found that the temperature is higher in July and lower inJanuary in 9000 yBP than that at present. The temperature difference is more obvious in the Northern Hemispherethan in the Southern Hemisphere and greater in July than in January. These results prove the potential abilities of theg-L AGCM in the climate simulation and climate prediction.

Severe winter weather as a response to the lowest Arctic sea-ice anomalies

Possible impact of reduced Arctic sea-ice on winter severe weather in China is investigated regarding the snowstorm over southern China in January 2008. The sea-ice conditions in the summer （July-September） and fall （September-November） of 2007 show that the sea-ice is the lowest that year. During the summer and fall of 2007, sea ice displayed a significant decrease in the East Siberian, the northern Chukchi Sea, the western Beaufort Sea, the Barents Sea, and the Kara Sea. A ECHAM5.4 atmospheric general circula- tion model is forced with realistic sea-ice conditions and strong thermal responses with warmer surface air temperature and higher-than-normal heat flux associated with the sea-ice anomalies are found. The model shows remote atmospheric responses over East Asia in January 2008, which result in severe snowstorm over southern China. Strong water-vapor transported from the Bay of Bengal and from the Pacific Ocean related to Arctic sea-ice anomalies in the fall （instead of summer） of 2007 is considered as one of the main causes of the snowstorm formation.

Quantifying the Response Strength of the Southern Stratospheric Polar Vortex to Indian Ocean Warming in Austral Summer

A previous multiple-AGCM study suggested that Indian Ocean Warming （IOW） tends to warm and weaken the southern polar vortex.Such an impact is robust because of a qualitative consistency among the five AGCMs used.However,a significant difference exists in the modeled strengths,particularly in the stratosphere,with those in three of the AGCMs （CCM3,CAM3,and GFS） being four to five times as strong as those in the two other models （GFDL AM2,ECHAM5）.As to which case reflects reality is an important issue not only for quantifying the role of tropical ocean warming in the recent modest recovery of the ozone hole over the Antarctic,but also for projecting its future trend.This issue is addressed in the present study through comparing the models＇ climatological mean states and intrinsic variability,particularly those influencing tropospheric signals to propagate upward and reach the stratosphere.The results suggest that differences in intrinsic variability of model atmospheres provide implications for the difference.Based on a comparison with observations,it is speculated that the impact in the real world may be closer to the modest one simulated by GFDL AM2 and ECHAM5,rather than the strong one simulated by the three other models （CCM3,CAM3 and GFS）.In particular,IOW during the past 50 years may have dynamically induced a 1.0℃ warming in the polar lower stratosphere （～100 hPa）,which canceled a fraction of radiative cooling due to ozone depletion.

Dependence of the AGCM Climatology on the Method of Prescribing Surface Boundary Conditions and Its Climatological Implication

By using IAP 9L AGCM, two sets of long-term climatological integration have been performed with the two different interpolation procedures for generating the daily surface boundary conditions. One interpolation procedure is the so-called “traditional” scheme, for which the daily surface boundary conditions are obtained by linearly interpolating between the observed monthly mean values, however the observed monthly means cannot be preserved after interpolation. The other one is the “new” scheme, for which the daily surface boundary conditions are obtained by linearly interpolating between the “artificial” monthly mean values which are based on, but are different from the observed ones, after interpolating with this new scheme, not only the observed monthly mean values are preserved, the time series of the new generated daily values is also more consistent with the observation. Comparison of the model results shows that the differences of the globally or zonally averaged fields between these two integrations are quite small, and this is due to the compensating effect between the different regions. However, the differences of the two patterns (the global or regional geographical distributions), are quite significant, for example, the magnitude of the difference in the JJA mean rainfall between these two integrations can exceed 2 mm/ day over Asian monsoon regions, and the difference in DJF mean surface air temperature can also exceed 2?C over this region. The fact that the model climatology depends quite strongly on the method of prescribing the daily surface boundary conditions suggests that in order to validate the climate model or to predict the short-term climate anomalies, either the “new? interpolation scheme or the high frequency surface boundary conditions (e.g., daily or weekly data instead of the monthly data) should be introduced. Meanwhile, as for the coupled model, the daily coupling scheme between the different component climate models ( e.g., atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models) is preferred in order to partly eliminate the “climate drift” problem which may appear during the course of direct coupling.

A REVIEW OF THE ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION AND MONSOON IN EAST ASIA

Important progresses of the study of the general circulation and monsoons in East Asia,which have been made since the pioneering work“Monsoons in Southeast Asia and rainfall amount in China”by Prof.Zhu Kezhen,are extensively reviewed in memory of this founder of modern meteorology in China.The first part has addressed the bimodality of the general circulation and the abrupt seasonal change.The second part has dealt with the role of the continent-ocean contrast and topography in the dynamic and thermal processes of mon- soon development,including winter and summer monsoons,and associated heat sources and sinks.The third part has discussed the monsoonal precipitation,with a special emphasis on the mesoscale disturbance,low-level jet and interannual variability of Meiyu(plum rains).

Simulations of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model of the Beijing Climate Center

The performance of BCC （Beijing Climate Center） AGCM 2.0.1 （Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.0.1） in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation （TIO） is examined in this paper.The simulations are validated against observation and compared with the NCAR CAM3 （Community Atmosphere Model version 3） results.The BCC AGCM2.0.1 is developed based on the original BCC AGCM （version 1） and NCAR CAM3.New reference atmosphere and reference pressure are introduced into the model.Therefore,the original prognostic variables of temperature and surface pressure become their departures from the reference atmosphere.A new Zhang-McFarlane convective parameterization scheme is incorporated into the model with a few modifications.Other modifications include those in the boundary layer process and snow cover calculation.All simulations are run for 52 yr from 1949 to 2001 under the lower boundary conditions of observed monthly SST.The TIOs from the model are analyzed.The comparison shows that the NCAR CAM3 has a poor ability in simulating the TIO.The simulated strength of the TIO is very weak.The energy of the eastward moving waves is similar to that of the westward moving waves in CAM3.While in observation the former is much larger than the latter.The seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the TIO produced by CAM3 are also much different from the observation.The ability of the BCC AGCM2.0.1 in simulating the TIO is significantly better.The simulated TIO is evident.The strength of the TIO produced by the BCC AGCM2.0.1 is close to the observation.The energy of eastward moving.waves is much stronger than that of the westward moving waves,which is consistent with the observation.There is no significant difference in the seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the TIO between the BCC model simulation and the observation.In general,the BCC model performs better than CAM3 in simulating the TIO.

Impact of the variation of westerly jets over East Asia on precipitation of eastern China in July

The impact of the northward jump and westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core fi：om the westem Pacific Ocean to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on precipitation distribution of eastem China is studied. It is concluded that on the one hand, the northward jump of the jet causes the precipitation belt to move northward from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and withdraw during the Mei-yu season; on the other hand, the westward movement of the jet core has no correspondence with withdrawal of the Mei-yu season. However, the earlier or later occurrence of the westward movement of the jet has an influence on the process of the rain belt moving northward than the northward jump of the jet： the rain belt moves northward from the middle-lower Yangtze River valley to the Huaihe River and then to an area between the Yellow River and Huaihe River during years when the time of the westward movement of the jet core is later than that of the northward jump of the jet and from the middle-lower Yangtze River valley to an area between the Yellow River and Huaihe River in other years. Further analysis shows that： （1） The northward jump of the jet and the westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core causes significant variation of the general atmospheric circulation in middle latitudes and water vapor transport from the western Pacific, but not from the Bay of Bengal. （2） Impact of the northward jump and the westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core on circulation are different, therefore, water vapor transport from the western Pacific and its impact on the rain belt are different. The earlier or later occurrence of the westward movement of the jet core than the northward jump of the jet causes the process of circulation and water vapor transport to be different which produces a different process of the rain belt moving northward.

A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE EFFECT OF GLOBAL SSTA ON THE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES

By the numerical simulation,the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.being introduced into IAP AGCM,the observed anomalous circulation characteristics on the monthly mean 850 hPa have been confirmed:during an El Nino episode there appears anomalous westerly flow in the low-level atmosphere over the low-latitude Pacific and the anomalous equatorward air flow over the Southeast Asia coast:during a La Nina episode there appears anomalous easterly flow in the low-level atmosphere over the low-latitude Pacific and the anomalous off-equator air flow over the Southeast Asia coast.If we introduce only Pacific SSTA into or take off orographic forcing from the model,the simulated anomalous air flow in the low- level atmosphere over the low latitudes will be different.The precipitation departure in conformity with the observation over the low latitudes has been simulated with this model as well.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE IMPACT OF ANTARCTIC ICE COVER AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY

By using a three-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),we have completed several numerical experiments to study the impacts of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and antarctic ice cover anomaly (AICA) during 1981—1983 on climate variability.The results show that during the El Nino period of 1982—1983 the impact of SSTA overrides that of AICA.SSTA mainly affects equatorial zonal circulation and produces PNA wave train,and SE-NW wave train in East Asia to influence the weather of China.AICA produces west-east anomalous vortex streets in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres and affects the intensity of the polar vortex of Southern Hemisphere.

A Simulation Study on the Extreme Temperature Events of the 20th Century by Using the BCC_AGCM

Extreme temperature events are simulated by using the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model （BCC_AGCM） in this paper. The model has been run for 136 yr with the observed ex- ternal forcing data including solar insolation, greenhouse gases, and monthly sea surface temperature （SST）. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures are simulated by the model, and 16 indices representing various extreme temperature events are calculated based on these two variables. The results show that the maximum of daily maximum temperature （TXX）, maximum of daily minimum （TNX）, minimum of daily maximum （TXN）, minimum of daily minimum （TNN）, warm days （TXg0p）, warm nights （TNg0p）, summer days （SU25）, tropical nights （TR20）, and warm spell duration index （WSDI） have increasing trends during the 20th century in most regions of the world, while the cold days （TX10p）, cold nights （TN10p）, and cold spell duration index （CSDI） have decreasing trends. The probability density function （PDF） of warm/cold days/nights for three periods of 1881-1950, 1951- 1978, and 1979-2003 is examined. It is found that before 1950, the cold day/night has the largest probability, while for the period of 1979-2003, it has the smallest probability. In contrast to the decreasing trend of cold days/nights, the PDF of warm days/nights exhibits an opposite trend. In addition, the frost days （FD） and ice days （ID） have decreasing trends, the growing season has lengthened, and the diurnal temperature range is getting smaller during the 20th century. A comparison of the above extreme temperature indices between the model output and NCEP data （taken as observation） for 1948 2000 indicates that the mean values and the trends of the simulated indices are close to the observations, and overall there is a high correlation between the simulated indices and the observations. But the simulated trends of FD, ID, growing season length, and diurnal temperature range are not consistent with the observations and their correlations are low or even negative. This indicates that the model is incapable to simulate these four indices although it has captured most indices of the extreme temperature events.

The Observed and Simulated Major Summer Climate Features in Northwest China and Their Sensitivity to Land Surface Processes

Northwest China （NWC） is a typical arid and semi-arid region. In this study, the main summer climate features over NWC are presented and the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model （NCEP GCM/SSiB） over this region is evaluated. Satellite-derived vegetation products are applied in the model. Based on comparison with observational data and Reanalysis II data, the model generally captures major features of the NWC summer energy balance and circulation. These features include： a high surface tem- perature center dominating the planetary boundary layer; widespread descending motion; an anticyclone （cyclone） located in the lower and middle （upper） troposphere, covering most parts of central NWC; and the precipitation located mainly in the high elevation areas surrounding NWC. The sensitivity of the summer energy balance and circulation over NWC and surrounding regions to land surface processes is assessed with specified land cover change. In the sensitivity experiment, the degradation over most parts of NWC, except the Taklimakan desert, decreases the surface-absorbed radiation and leads to weaker surface thermal effects. In northern Xinjiang and surrounding regions, less latent heating causes stronger anomalous lower-level anticyclonic circulation and upper-level cyclonic circulation, leading to less summer precipitation and higher surface temperature. Meanwhile, the dry conditions in the Hexi Corridor produce less change in the latent heat flux. The circulation change to the north of this area plays a domi- nant role in indirectly changing lower-level cyclonic conditions, producing more convergence, weaker vertical descending motion, and thus an increase in the precipitation over this region.

Propagation and Mechanisms of the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation over the Asian Summer Monsoon Region

The propagation and underlying mechanisms of the boreal summer quasi-biweekly oscillation（QBWO）over the entire Asian monsoon region are investigated,based on ECMWF Interim reanalysis（ERA-Interim）data,GPCP precipitation data,and an atmospheric general circulation model（AGCM）.Statistical analyses indicate that the QBWO over the Asian monsoon region derives its main origin from the equatorial western Pacific and moves northwestward to the Bay of Bengal and northern India,and then northward to the Tibetan Plateau（TP）area,with a baroclinic vertical structure.Northward propagation of the QBWO is promoted by three main mechanisms：barotropic vorticity,boundary moisture advection,and surface sensible heating（SSH）.It is dominated by the barotropic vorticity effect when the QBWO signals are situated to the south of 20°N.During the propagation taking place farther north toward the TP,the boundary moisture advection and SSH are the leading mechanisms.We use an AGCM to verify the importance of SSH on the northward propagation of the QBWO.Numerical simulations confirm the diagnostic conclusion that the equatorial western Pacific is the source of the QBWO.Importantly,the model can accurately simulate the propagation pathway of the QBWO signals over the Asian monsoon region.Simultaneously,sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the SSH over northern India and the southern slope of the TP greatly contributes to the northward propagation of the QBWO as far as the TP area.