An Improved Ensemble Learning Approach for Heart Disease Prediction Using Boosting Algorithms

Cardiovascular disease is among the top five fatal diseases that affect lives worldwide.Therefore,its early prediction and detection are crucial,allowing one to take proper and necessary measures at earlier stages.Machine learning(ML)techniques are used to assist healthcare providers in better diagnosing heart disease.This study employed three boosting algorithms,namely,gradient boost,XGBoost,and AdaBoost,to predict heart disease.The dataset contained heart disease-related clinical features and was sourced from the publicly available UCI ML repository.Exploratory data analysis is performed to find the characteristics of data samples about descriptive and inferential statistics.Specifically,it was carried out to identify and replace outliers using the interquartile range and detect and replace the missing values using the imputation method.Results were recorded before and after the data preprocessing techniques were applied.Out of all the algorithms,gradient boosting achieved the highest accuracy rate of 92.20%for the proposed model.The proposed model yielded better results with gradient boosting in terms of precision,recall,and f1-score.It attained better prediction performance than the existing works and can be used for other diseases that share common features using transfer learning.

A STATISTICAL PREDICTION MODEL FOR SPRING RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN CHINA BASED ON THE INTERANNUAL INCREMENT APPROACH

The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast model for the DY of SPRNC is constructed based on the data that are taken from the 1965-2002 period (38 years), in which six predictors are available no later than the current month of February. This is favorable so that the seasonal forecasts can be made one month ahead. Then, SPRNC and the percentage anomaly of SPRNC are obtained by the predicted DY of SPRNC. The model performs well in the prediction of the inter-annual variation of the DY of SPRNC during 1965-2002, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DY of SPRNC of 0.87. This accounts for 76% of the total variance, with a low value for the average root mean square error (RMSE) of 20%. Both the results of the hindcast for the period of 2003-2010 (eight years) and the cross-validation test for the period of 1965-2009 (45 years) illustrate the good prediction capability of the model, with a small mean relative error of 10%, an RMSE of 17% and a high rate of coherence of 87.5% for the hindcasts of the percentage anomaly of SPRNC.

The Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Perturbations on Subseasonal Predictions of North Atlantic Oscillation Events

The influence of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on the subseasonal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) event is investigated by utilizing the Community Atmospheric Model version 4. The optimal Arctic SIC perturbations which exert the greatest influence on the onset of an NAO event from a lead of three pentads (15 days) are obtained with a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach. Numerical results show that there are two types of optimal Arctic SIC perturbations for each NAO event, with one weakening event (marked as type-1) and another strengthening event (marked as type-2). For positive NAO events, type-1 optimal SIC perturbations mainly show positive SIC anomalies in the Greenland, Barents, and Okhotsk Seas, while type-2 perturbations mainly feature negative SIC anomalies in these regions. For negative NAO events, the optimal SIC perturbations have almost opposite patterns to those in positive events, although there are some differences among these SIC perturbations due to different atmospheric initial conditions. Further diagnosis reveals that the optimal Arctic SIC perturbations first modify the surface turbulent heat flux and the temperature in the lower troposphere via diabatic processes. Afterward, the temperature in the low troposphere is mainly affected by dynamic advection. Finally, potential vorticity advection plays a crucial role in the 500-hPa geopotential height prediction in the northern North Atlantic sector during pentad 4, which influences NAO event prediction. These results highlight the importance of Arctic SIC on NAO event prediction and the spatial characteristics of the SIC perturbations may provide scientific support for target observations of SIC in improving NAO subseasonal predictions.

Mapping Soil Salinity Using a Similarity-based Prediction Approach:A Case Study in Huanghe River Delta,China

Spatial distribution of soil salinity can be estimated based on its environmental factors because soil salinity is strongly affected and indicated by environmental factors. Different with other properties such as soil texture, soil salinity varies with short-term time. Thus, how to choose powerful environmental predictors is especially important for soil salinity. This paper presents a similarity-based prediction approach to map soil salinity and detects powerful environmental predictors for the Huanghe(Yellow) River Delta area in China. The similarity-based approach predicts the soil salinities of unsampled locations based on the environmental similarity between unsampled and sampled locations. A dataset of 92 points with salt data at depth of 30–40 cm was divided into two subsets for prediction and validation. Topographical parameters, soil textures, distances to irrigation channels and to the coastline, land surface temperature from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS), Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices(NDVIs) and land surface reflectance data from Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM) imagery were generated. The similarity-based prediction approach was applied on several combinations of different environmental factors. Based on three evaluation indices including the correlation coefficient(CC) between observed and predicted values, the mean absolute error and the root mean squared error we found that elevation, distance to irrigation channels, soil texture, night land surface temperature, NDVI, and land surface reflectance Band 5 are the optimal combination for mapping soil salinity at the 30–40 cm depth in the study area(with a CC value of 0.69 and a root mean squared error value of 0.38). Our results indicated that the similarity-based prediction approach could be a vital alternative to other methods for mapping soil salinity, especially for area with limited observation data and could be used to monitor soil salinity distributions in the future.

AN EFFECTIVE APPROACH TO SHORT-AND MEDIUM-RANGE PREDICTION OF TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

An objective prediction approach to the 6 h- 144 h track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the northwestern Pacific is proposed. On the basis of both analog deviation technique and completed historical sample curve library, the track or intensity prediction for each forecast period are determined respectively through the optimum weighted superposition of displacement or intensity change of the cases, with different number and weighted coefficient corresponding to minimal analog deviation, from different tropical cyclone or different stage of the same cyclone. so that the prediction results for both forecast period and entire process are optimal. The verification suggests that the approach exhibits better forecast performance than other previous forecast methods by having remarkable decreasing forecast errors in short- and medium-range forecast of both track and intensity,and that the approach can also be used to predict effectively the decay process of tropical cyclone and is able to predict anomalous track and tropical depression.

Coastline Security Engineering Using Geo-Spatial Approach: Case of Chabahar Port, Iran

Regarding the special potential of ports located on international coastlines such as Makoran Sea (Iran) for goods and human smuggling, national level of coastline security is very important. They can play a significant role in the development of power and security. Based on military reviews and analyses, police location and monitoring field view in the coastlines are strategic issues in modern security development. This research proposes a tool for development of coastal roads and coastal walking routes in the deployment of police. The main focuses are monitoring field view and accessibility to the strategic coastline. GIS tool plays an essential role in producing important security maps. Chabahar Port in Iran, as the most important port of Makoran Sea, has been selected as the study area, regarding its strategic role in the national economy and security. Research method focused on these major axes: successful establishment of police stations in shoreline for increasing monitoring and coastal security and suitable patrol of patrol police car in the coastal roads. This study adopts a scientific approach to the analysis of the present and future development in urban and security planning in coastal towns in the national and regional levels.

Seismological Approaches to Earthquake Prediction

Seismological approaches used in earthquake prediction involve many subjects. To predict large earthquakes from small to moderate foreshocks has a clear meaning in physics. Some of the main methods of earthquake prediction used in China are outlined in this paper. According to the anomalies used for earthquake prediction, seismological approaches can be divided into two groups: those that use the anomalies in seismic patterns, including the increase and decrease in regional seismicity, the appearance of seismic gaps, seismic belts, seismic swarms, and foreshocks and those that use anomalies in special values and in seismic waves, such as the anomalies in b values and f values, in the Vp/VS ratio, Q values, stress drop, and shear stress.

A skillful method for precipitation prediction over eastern China

Precipitation prediction is essential for disaster prevention,yet it still remains a challenging issue in weather and climate studies.This paper proposes an effective prediction method for summer precipitation over eastern China(PEC) by combining empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis with the interannual increment approach.Three statistical prediction models are individually developed for respective predictions of the three principal components(PCs) corresponding to the three leading EOF modes for the interannual increment of PEC(hereafter DY;EC).Each model is run for the month of March with two previous predictors derived from sea-ice concentration/soil moisture/sea surface temperature/snow depth/sea level pressure over specific regions.The predicted PCs are projected to the EOF modes derived from observations of DY;EC to produce a new DY;EC.This new DY;EC is then added to the observed PEC of the previous year to obtain the final predicted PEC.The spatial features of the predicted PEC are highly consistent with observations,with the anomaly correlation coefficient skill ranging from 0.32 to 0.64 during 2012-2020.The method is applied for real-time prediction of PEC in 2021.And the results indicate two rain belts located over northeastern China and the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley,respectively,although the chance for the occurrence of a "super" mei-yu with a similar intensity to that in 2020 would be rare in 2021.

A Hybrid Neural Network Model for ENSO Prediction in Combination with Principal Oscillation Pattern Analyses

El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)can be currently predicted reasonably well six months and longer,but large biases and uncertainties remain in its real-time prediction.Various approaches have been taken to improve understanding of ENSO processes,and different models for ENSO predictions have been developed,including linear statistical models based on principal oscillation pattern(POP)analyses,convolutional neural networks(CNNs),and so on.Here,we develop a novel hybrid model,named as POP-Net,by combining the POP analysis procedure with CNN-long short-term memory(LSTM)algorithm to predict the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature(SST)index.ENSO predictions are compared with each other from the corresponding three models:POP model,CNN-LSTM model,and POP-Net,respectively.The POP-based pre-processing acts to enhance ENSO-related signals of interest while filtering unrelated noise.Consequently,an improved prediction is achieved in the POP-Net relative to others.The POP-Net shows a high-correlation skill for 17-month lead time prediction(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5)during the 1994-2020 validation period.The POP-Net also alleviates the spring predictability barrier(SPB).It is concluded that value-added artificial neural networks for improved ENSO predictions are possible by including the process-oriented analyses to enhance signal representations.

Bayesian serial revision method for RLLC cluster systems failure prediction

Failure prediction plays an important role for many tasks such as optimal resource management in large-scale system. However, accurately failure number prediction of repairable large-scale long-running computing （RLLC） is a challenge because of the reparability and large-scale. To address the challenge, a general Bayesian serial revision prediction method based on Bootstrap approach and moving average approach is put forward, which can make an accurately prediction for the failure number. To demonstrate the performance gains of our method, extensive experiments on the data of Los Alamos National Laboratory （LANL） cluster is implemented, which is a typical RLLC system. And experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of our method is 80.2 %, and it is a greatly improvement with 4 % compared with some typical methods. Finally, the managerial implications of the models are discussed.

A New Approach to Intelligent Model Based Predictive Control Scheme

This paper describes a new approach to intelligent model based predictive control scheme for deriving a complex system. In the control scheme presented, the main problem of the linear model based predictive control theory in dealing with severe nonlinear and time variant systems is thoroughly solved. In fact, this theory could appropriately be improved to a perfect approach for handling all complex systems, provided that they are firstly taken into consideration in line with the outcomes presented. This control scheme is organized based on a multi-fuzzy-based predictive control approach as well as a multi-fuzzy-based predictive model approach, while an intelligent decision mechanism system (IDMS) is used to identify the best fuzzy-based predictive model approach and the corresponding fuzzy-based predictive control approach, at each instant of time. In order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed control scheme, the single linear model based generalized predictive control scheme is used as a benchmark approach. At last, the appropriate tracking performance of the proposed control scheme is easily outperformed in comparison with previous one.

Prediction of Anthropometric Dimensions Based on Grey Incidence Analysis and ANFIS

In order to select the efficient input variables of adaptive ncuro-fuzzy infence system （ANFIS）during the prediction anthropometric dimenions, grey incidence （GI） analysis, as a mastic method that ranks the sequence of of lots of variables in complicated factors has been applled.According to the prediction accuracy （A） between the predicted values and actual measured values, the ANFISG1 model with the parameters selected by using the GI analysis were more correct and effective than those done by multiple regression model and the model with input parmeters nonelected. The model prediction accuracy △Regrauskn= 0.804 7〈 △ANE3CI=0.9725, which proves the nodel with few parameters is more correct and effective than the other merits.

Prediction Skills and Its Influence on Learners’ Achievement in Reading Comprehension: A Case of Vihiga County, Kenya

Prediction is one of the comprehension processing skills encapsulated by the interactive approach instruction.Prediction skills enable learners to decode the meaning of comprehension passages by making guesses about the contents of texts to be read.Learners in Vihiga County perform poorer in English language examinations than their peers in neighbouring counties.The performance is weaker in comprehension than in grammar sections.Despite this,no study has assessed the nexus between the use of prediction skills and learners’achievement in reading comprehension.This study applied the Solomon Four-Group Design to obtain primary data from 279 primary school learners and eight teachers in 2017.Multiple Linear Regression was used to generate two models,one for the experimental group(Model 1)and one for the control group(Model 2).Results show that the influence of prediction skills on learners’achievement in reading comprehension was statistically significant the experimental group,but insignificant in the control group.However,the influence seemed to be stronger in the experimental than in the control group,which suggests that training English language teachers on how to correctly apply prediction skills is likely to improve learners’achievement in reading comprehension.The study recommends the need to:sensitise teachers to use textbooks cautiously,while supplementing with relevant resource materials;sensitise teachers on the need to guide learners through titles;as well as update the teacher training curriculum by integrating inter alia,new instructional methods based on information and communication technology and entrenching innovation to enable teachers diversify instructional resources.

基于ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的进场交通流预测方法

为建立准确有效的空中交通短期流量预测模型,提高终端区管理效率,以进场交通流为对象进行研究。首先采用自回归移动平均(autoregressive moving average,ARMA)模型对流量时间序列进行初步线性预测,然后通过长短期记忆网络(long short term memory,LSTM)模型对线性预测后的残差序列进行非线性修正预测。考虑到冗余特征会降低LSTM模型预测精度的问题,采用自编码器(autoencoder,AE)模型对LSTM模型的天气以及流量特征输入进行自适应压缩优化,最后设置对比实验对ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的准确性、鲁棒性以及时效性进行验证。实验结果表明:预测绝对误差在1.3架以内的占比达到75%;LSTM模型的平均每轮迭代时间降低为1.014 s;与其他常用深度学习预测模型相比,ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)以及决定系数(r-squared,R2)评价指标分别改善了45.98%~67.66%、48.56%~67.35%、5.18%~21.07%;恶劣天气影响下,ARMA-AE-LSTM模型的鲁棒性更好。由此可见,该方法能够准确有效快速的预测空中交通流量。

基于滑模抗扰动观测器的PMSM无差拍预测控制

受温度及其它非线性因素影响,永磁同步电机(PMSM)运行过程中电阻、电感及磁链参数会发生变化,直接导致预测电流模型中电机参数与实际参数不符,影响系统控制性能。为提高系统参数的鲁棒性,针对一种三电平驱动的PMSM进行基于滑模观测器的参数抗扰动研究,电流内环采用等速趋近律滑模观测器来估计系统所受到的总参数扰动,并对模型电流预测控制器进行实时补偿;转速外环采用基于指数趋近律的滑模控制器实现;此外,针对传统预测电流控制中定子电流谐波分量大的问题,提出一种基于注入虚拟矢量的近似两电平SVPWM无差拍算法;最后,搭建Simulink仿真平台验证了所提控制理论的正确性与鲁棒性。

上颌尖牙阻生的早期预测和阻断治疗

上颌尖牙是除第三磨牙外最易阻生的恒牙,患病率为1%-3%。上颌尖牙阻生会导致邻牙牙根松动、错合畸形、含牙囊肿等并发症,其治疗难度大、治疗周期长、费用高,有治疗失败、牙周损害等风险。通过早期预测,有利于早期发现和及时采取阻断性治疗。上颌尖牙阻生的阻断治疗方法包括拔除乳尖牙、头帽颈牵引、早期上颌扩弓等,可在不同程度上提高上颌尖牙的自发萌出率,避免复杂的正畸综合治疗,节约治疗时间和费用。本文通过文献回顾,来总结上颌阻生尖牙的早期预测和阻断治疗方法的研究进展,希望能为早发现、早诊断、早治疗上颌尖牙阻生提供参考。

基于进化算法与数据驱动的锂离子电池寿命预测

锂离子电池因其长寿命而导致其设计和测试周期较长,因此,建立一个锂离子电池寿命预测模型对锂离子电池的开发和测试具有重要意义。基于数据驱动的锂离子电池寿命预测是一种有前景的预测方法,它可以在不需要专业知识的情况下进行预测。但是,基于数据驱动的预测方法对数据的要求较高,同时,大量的数据特征可能会降低学习模型的精度。为了解决这个问题,提出了一种基于进化算法的特征选择策略,该策略利用进化算法对锂离子电池训练数据的特征进行筛选,从而提高算法的精度。最终的实验结果在麻省理工学院提出的测试集上表现出了良好的效果。

A Bayesian Approach with Prior Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium for Vehicle Intention Prediction

The state-of-the-art technology in the field of vehicle automation will lead to a mixed traffic environment in the coming years,where connected and automated vehicles have to interact with human-driven vehicles.In this context,it is necessary to have intention prediction models with the capability of forecasting how the traffic scenario is going to evolve with respect to the physical state of vehicles,the possible maneuvers and the interactions between traffic participants within the seconds to come.This article presents a Bayesian approach for vehicle intention forecasting,utilizing a game-theoretic framework in the form of a Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium(MSNE)as a prior estimate to model the reciprocal influence between traffic participants.The likelihood is then computed based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence.The game is modeled as a static nonzero-sum polymatrix game with individual preferences,a well known strategic game.Finding the MSNE for these games is in the PPAD∩PLS complexity class,with polynomial-time tractability.The approach shows good results in simulations in the long term horizon(10s),with its computational complexity allowing for online applications.

Integrated approach to colorectal anastomotic leakage: Communication, infection and healing disturbances

Colorectal anastomotic leakage(CAL) remains a major complication after colorectal surgery. Despite all efforts during the last decades, the incidence of CAL has not decreased. In this review, we summarize the available strategies regarding prevention, prediction and intervention of CAL and categorize them into three categories: communication, infection and healing disturbances. These three major factors actively interact during the onset of CAL. We aim to provide an integrated approach to CAL based on its etiology. The intraoperative air leak test, intraoperative endoscopy, radiological examinations and stoma construction mainly aim to detect and to prevent communication between the intra- and extra-luminal content. Other strategies including postoperative drainage, antibiotics, and infectious-parameter evaluation are intended to detect and prevent anastomotic or peritoneal infection. Most currently available interventions for CAL focus on the control of communication and infection, while strategies targeting the healing disturbances such as lifestyle changes, oxygen therapy and evaluation of metabolic biomarkers still lack wide clinical application. This simplified categorization may contribute to an integrated understanding of CAL. We strongly believe that this integrated approach should be taken into consideration during clinical practice. An integrated approach to CAL could contribute to a better understanding of the etiology of CAL and eventually better patient outcome.

Representing Model Uncertainty by Multi-Stochastic Physics Approaches in the GRAPES Ensemble

To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection,boundary layer,and surface layer parameterization schemes,as well as the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies(SPPT)scheme,and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter(SKEB)scheme,is applied in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System(GRAPES-REPS)to evaluate and compare the general performance of various combinations of multiple stochastic physics schemes.Six experiments are performed for a summer month(1-30 June 2015)over China and multiple verification metrics are used.The results show that:(1)All stochastic experiments outperform the control(CTL)experiment,and all combinations of stochastic parameterization schemes perform better than the single SPP scheme,indicating that stochastic methods can effectively improve the forecast skill,and combinations of multiple stochastic parameterization schemes can better represent model uncertainties;(2)The combination of all three stochastic physics schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)outperforms any other combination of two schemes in precipitation forecasting and surface and upper-air verification to better represent the model uncertainties and improve the forecast skill;(3)Combining SKEB with SPP and/or SPPT results in a notable increase in the spread and reduction in outliers for the upper-air wind speed.SKEB directly perturbs the wind field and therefore its addition will greatly impact the upper-air wind-speed fields,and it contributes most to the improvement in spread and outliers for wind;(4)The introduction of SPP has a positive added value,and does not lead to large changes in the evolution of the kinetic energy(KE)spectrum at any wavelength;(5)The introduction of SPPT and SKEB would cause a 5%-10%and 30%-80%change in the KE of mesoscale systems,and all three stochastic schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)mainly affect the KE of mesoscale systems.This study indicates the potential of combining multiple stochastic physics schemes and lays a foundation for the future development and design of regional and global ensembles.