Study on the Analysis System of Meteorological and Geological Disaster Grades Early Warning of WebGIS

The method of realizing meteorological and geological disaster forecast and early warning information system in Qixian County of Shanxi Province was studied. According to meteorological factor parameter of the geological disasters for many years in Qixian County Land Bureau, and data of average meteorological element parameters that corresponded by evolution of geological disaster region each year, evaluation algorithm model of the forecast and eady warning of geological disasters in Qixian County was obtained, and the database of meteorological factor of geological disaster was established. On this basis, WebGIS geographic information system based on C/S and B/S which could real-time monitor geological disaster region was studied and designed. After data analysis system could evaluate the geological disaster forecast and early warning and make the real-time and accurate early warning, which greatly improved the timeliness of meteorological geological disasters forecast and early warning in Qixian County. System set of data processing and forecast and early warning issued in one, to realize the dynamic information release function of grade of geological disaster early warning, and had the characteristics of easy sharing, real-time dynamic update.

Construction of Forecast and Early Warning System of Meteorological and Geological Disasters in Qinghai Province

Based on the meteorological and geological disaster data, ground observation data set, CLDAS grid point data set, and EC, BJ and other model product data during 2008-2020, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological and geological disasters and precipitation were analyzed, and the causes of the occurrence of meteorological geological disasters and the deviation of model precipitation forecast were revealed. Besides, an objective precipitation forecast system and a forecast and early warning system of meteorological and geological disasters were established. The results show that meteorological and geological disasters and precipitation were mainly concentrated from May to October, of which continuous precipitation appeared frequently in June and September, and convective precipitation was mainly distributed in July-August;the occurrence frequency of meteorological and geological disasters was basically consistent with the distribution of accumulated precipitation and short-term heavy precipitation, and they were mainly concentrated in the southern and eastern parts of Qinghai. Meteorological and geological disasters were basically caused by heavy rain and above, and meteorological and geological disasters were divided into three types: continuous precipitation(type I), short-term heavy precipitation(type II) and mixed precipitation(type III). For type I, the early warning conditions of meteorological and geological disasters in Qinghai are as follows: if the soil volumetric water content difference between 0-10 and 10-40 cm is ≤0.03 mm^(3)/mm^(3), or the soil volumetric water content at one of the depths is ≥0.25 mm^(3)/mm^(3), the future effective precipitation reaches 8.4 mm in 1 h, 10.2 mm in 2 h, 11.5 mm in 3 h, 14.2 mm in 6 h, 17.7 mm in 12 h, and 18.2 mm in 24 h, and such warning conditions are mainly used in Yushu, Guoluo, southern Hainan, southern Huangnan and other places. For type II, when the future effective precipitation is up to 11.5 mm in 1 h, 14.9 mm in 2 h, 16.2 mm in 3 h, 19.9 mm in 6 h, 25.3 mm in 12 h, and 26.3 mm in 24 h, such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hainan, Huangnan, and eastern Guoluo;as it is up to 13.3 mm in 1 h, 15.5 mm in 2 h, 16.6 mm in 3 h, 19.9 mm in 6 h, 31.1 mm in 12 h, and 34.0 mm in 24 h, such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hehuang valley. The precipitation thresholds of type III are between type I and type II, and closer to that of type II;such precipitation thresholds are mainly used in Hainan, Huangnan, and northern Guoluo. The forecasting ability of global models for heavy rain and above was not as good as that of mesoscale numerical prediction model, and global models had a wet bias for small-scale precipitation and a dry bias for large-scale precipitation;meso-scale models had a significantly larger precipitation bias. The forecast ability of precipitation objective forecast system constructed by frequency matching and multi-model integration has improved. At the same time, the constructed grid forecast and early warning system of meteorological and geological disasters is more precise and accurate, and is of instructive significance for the forecast and early warning of meteorological and geological disasters.

Development and Application of Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning Platform for Characteristic Agriculture in Huzhou City Based on GIS

Based on the needs of characteristic agricultural production for meteorological services in Huzhou City,we use C# programming language to develop the meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning platform for characteristic agriculture in Huzhou City. This platform integrates the functions of meteorological and agricultural information monitoring,disaster identification and early warning,fine weather forecast product display,and data query and management,which effectively enhances the capacity of meteorological disaster monitoring and early warning for characteristic agriculture in Huzhou City,and provides strong technical support for the meteorological and agricultural departments in the agricultural meteorological services.

Chinese public participation monitoring and warning system for geological hazards

In China,many geological hazards occurred in remote mountainous regions,and it was time-consuming to disseminate disaster information for the responsible parties to make timely judgements.Besides,only relying on professionals to monitor and manage disasters was demanding and costly.The Chinese government created a system to engage residents in the process of disaster risk management,namely’Public Participation Monitoring and Warning’(PPMW),to disseminate timely disaster information and bring down management costs.The objective of this system was to reduce casualties with minimum cost by organizing residents to evacuate from disasters in advance.This paper introduced the PPMW system,including its structure,operation mechanism by reviewing government documents and research articles,and its implementation by a case study of a landslide at Boli village(E 101°01’,N 27°29’),Yanyuan County,Sichuan Province,China on July 19th 2018.Further,this paper analyzed the strengths and limitations of the system and discussed its future development.It had the potential to become an affordable disaster risk management tool for other countries facing similar situations to China.

Mechanism,prevention,and control of mining-induced dynamic disasters in underground metal mines in China:Challenges and solutions

Metal mineral resources play an indispensable role in the development of the national economy.Dynamic disasters in underground metal mines seriously threaten mining safety,which are major scientific and technological problems to be solved urgently.In this article,the occurrence status and grand challenges of some typical dynamic disasters involving roof falling,spalling,collapse,large deformation,rockburst,surface subsidence,and water inrush in metal mines in China are systematically presented,the characteristics of mining-induced dynamic disasters are analyzed,the examples of dynamic disasters occurring in some metal mines in China are summarized,the occurrence mechanism,monitoring and early warning methods,and prevention and control techniques of these disasters are highlighted,and some new opinions,suggestions,and solutions are proposed simultaneously.Moreover,some shortcomings in current disaster research are pointed out,and the direction of efforts to improve the prevention and control level of dynamic disasters in China’s metal mines in the future is prospected.The integration of forward-looking key innovative theories and technologies in the abovementioned aspects will greatly enhance the cognitive level of disaster prevention and mitigation in China’s metal mining industry and achieve a significant shift from passive disaster relief to active disaster prevention.

Coalbursts in China: Theory, practice and management

Coalburst is one of the most serious disasters that threaten the safe production of coal mines, and this disaster is particularly serious in China. This paper presents an overview of coalbursts in China since 1980s. From the "stress and energy" and "regional and local" perspectives, the achievements in the theory, practice and management of coalbursts in China are systematically summarized. A theoretical system of coalbursts has been formed to reveal the deformational behavior of coalbursts and explain the mechanism of coalbursts. The occurrence conditions of coalbursts are put forward and the critical stress is obtained. The stress index method for risk evaluation of coalbursts before mining is proposed, and the deformation localization prediction method of coalbursts is put forward. The relationship between energy release and absorption in the process of coalbursts is found, and the prevention and control methods of coalbursts, including the regional method, the local method and support, are presented. The safety evaluation index of coalburst prevention and control is put forward. The integrated prevention and control method for coal and gas outbursts is proposed. The prevention and control technology and equipment of coalbursts have also been developed. Amongst them, the distribution law of the critical stress in China coalburst mines is discovered. The technology and equipment for monitoring, prevention and control of coalbursts, as well as for integrated prevention and control of combined coalbursts and other disasters, have been developed. The energy-absorbing and coalburst-preventing support technology for roadways is invented, and key engineering parameters of coalburst prevention and control are pointed out. In China, coalburst prevention and control laws and standards have been developed. Technical standards for coalbursts are formulated, statute and regulations for coal mines are established, and regulatory documents are promoted.

Intelligent early-warning platform for open-pit mining: Current status and prospects

As the profundity of open-pit mining operations has increased,so has the frequency of geological disasters.The complex interaction of factors causing these disasters presents technical challenges for early warning and control systems.However,emergent technologies such as the internet,5G networks,and artificial intelligence provide new opportunities for constructing integrated digital early warning platforms that synthesise multifaceted monitoring data to predict and mitigate open-pit mine hazards.Using efficient Internet-mediated information integration,data from various sources can be consolidated for enhanced disaster management.This paper reviews the current state of digital early warning platforms for open-pit mines using a Web of Science database search for pertinent literature.The framework,data layer,technology layer,and application layer of these platforms are investigated in order to identify associated technologies and obstacles.Important results include:(1)Inconsistent data formats and monitoring software diminish platform workflow efficiency.Robust data exchange protocols and feature-rich software could increase efficiency.(2)Platforms rely on limited data types as opposed to intelligent algorithms that integrate diverse monitoring inputs into global disaster predictions.The underutilization of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence,the internet of things,and cloud computing.Mining calamity mechanisms and rock mechanics require additional study.

Application of remote monitoring technology in landslides in the Luoshan mining area

With the scale extending of mining, the landslide disaster in the earth’s surface will become more and more serious, and these landslide disasters are being threatened to the sustainable safe mining of the underground mine and the open-pit mine. Based on the theory that sliding force is greater than the shear resistance (resisting force) at the potential slip surface is the necessary and sufficient condition to occur the landslide as the sliding criterion, the principle and method for sliding force remote monitoring is presented, and the functional relationship between the human mechanical quantity and the natural sliding force is derived, hereby, the natural sliding force can be calculated according to the human mechanical quantity. Based on above principle and method, a new system of landslide remote monitoring is designed and 53 systems are installed on the landslide body in the Luoshan mining area, which make up the landslide remote monitoring network. According to the results of field test around 8 months, monitoring curves between sliding force and time are obtained, which can describe and forecast the develop trend of landslide. According to above analysis, the results show that this system has some following advantages: (1) real-time monitoring; (2) remote intelligent transmission; (3) landslides early warning.

金属矿山地质灾害风险智能监测预警技术现状与展望

金属矿山地质灾害风险智能监测预警技术是保障矿山安全生产的关键技术之一,是岩石力学应用于矿山安全领域研究的热点问题。从地质灾害风险定义、类型、监测方式、预警技术等方面出发,简述了金属矿山地质灾害风险监测预警技术的发展现状,指出在灾害风险定义方面,金属矿山地质灾害风险易发性、易损性和危险性量化分析理论体系尚不完善;在灾害风险监测与数据融合方面,多感知设备协同监测与数据融合理论仍不完善,尚未实现基于风险条件的感知设备布设方案智能调整,难以保障采动岩体力学响应的时空完整性与连续性;在灾害风险预警方法方面,监测与模拟相结合已成为矿山灾害预警发展趋势,应进一步与云计算、人工智能等技术相融合,建立完善的理论体系,实现实时动态、精准高效、智能的灾害风险预警。在此基础上,围绕“现场监测和数值模拟相结合灾害预测预警”的学术思想,提出了“地质灾害案例匹配、多源数据挖掘、力学机理分析、专家系统诊断”四位一体的灾害风险智能预测预警方法,进一步以弓长岭露天矿浅层隐伏空区垮塌与地表塌陷风险监测预警工作为背景,实现了上述方法的应用与推广。最后指出了金属矿山灾害风险智能监测预警技术存在着多源力学响应数据难以高精度连续协同感知、灾害预测预警模型参数难以精准选取、灾害监测预警系统尚不完善等问题,多灾种高性能、专用特种智能感知技术与装备,标准化数据通信协议与架构,监测—模拟相结合的灾害智能预警模型,地质灾害监测预警平台与数字孪生技术是解决上述问题的关键技术,是未来的主要发展趋势。

云南省地质灾害气象风险预警技术改进及应用检验

利用2014—2022年云南省地质灾害数据和气象降水资料,开展有效降水量致灾概率研究,并结合地质灾害易发因子,分区建立了新一代精细化地质灾害气象风险预警模型,并对模型性能开展了应用检验。结果表明:新建的地质灾害气象风险预警模型提高了预警产品的时空分辨率和准确率,应用效果良好。模型能提前较好地反映出区域性强降水过程背景下的气象风险预警等级;对较难预报的局地强降水,也可以通过实时更新的监测预警产品给出风险加强的趋势,提前发出地质灾害气象风险预警信息;能直接客观反映出极端强降水背景下的气象风险高级别预警,起到较好的预警提示作用。

矿井微震与电法耦合监测技术

随着煤炭资源开采区域、深度及强度的增加,矿井工作面采掘扰动极易诱发矿井突水事故,严重威胁我国煤炭资源安全开采。矿井水害事故的发生主要是岩体采动破裂与矿井水渗流共同作用的结果。研究表明,微震信号的纵横波到时、幅值、频率等参量可有效表征岩体破裂位置、强度及其震源机制,地电场信号中的电阻率、激励电流及自然电位等参量可有效表征岩体渗流演化过程。透水通道形成对应微震场特征,地下水渗流对应地电场特征,因此微震电法耦合方法对矿井水害孕育发展过程具有监测预警的功能,可有效对采动破坏过程中形成的突水通道、水源位置及渗流过程等水害三要素进行精准捕捉;减少单一地球物理方法多解性,提高水害监测预警精度,对煤矿防治水意义重大。当前,微震与电法耦合监测技术在煤矿水害实时动态监测中开始得到应用,突破传统微震与电法独立采集的局限,课题组自主研发了国内外首款煤安认证的微震与电法耦合并行监测系统,该系统以微震场与地电场并行采集基站为核心,集被动源微震波场与主被动地电场为一体,通过连接矿井物联网,实现远程数据采集控制、传输及云端存储;其一体化网络服务器主机可连接多个采集基站,并将微震检波器、电法激励电极与电位测量电极进行相互隔离、并行采集,形成微震事件密度与能级分布、电阻率分布、自然电位分布等时空云图来监测预判水害三要素。微震与电法耦合监测技术仍需在微震事件智能识别与定位、地电场的电阻率三维反演以及自然电位渗流反演方面进行专项攻关;结合并行监测的微震电法大数据集,重点在微震电法数据联合反演、智能化监测预警方向开展进一步研究。微震与电法耦合监测技术,作为矿井水害的主动预警监测新方法,可为我国智能化矿井建设发挥重要作用。

基于新型智慧城市视角的地质灾害监测——以广州市为例

新型智慧城市建设为广州地质灾害监测提供了新机遇、新思路。笔者结合近年来地灾监测的科学研究和工程实践,从感知、调度、共治的角度浅谈对于广州地灾监测的一些思考。感知方面:广州市地貌结构复杂,北部丘陵台地作为地灾易发区,建议构建重点区域天-空-地三查体系,及时识别潜在风险源。预警调度:广州市地灾的发生与降雨有很强的时间相关性和空间耦合性,建议在广州市雨窝、降雨集中区构建精细化气象预警网格,提高监测预警精准度;针对地灾监测预警存在的重监测、轻预警现象,建议构建基于数据-知识双驱动的预警模型,实现高精度可解释的地灾预测建模;针对疑难边坡,建立专家研判系统,实现精准“把脉”,精准“治疗”。共建共治:加强跨部门跨层级合作,加强新建工程项目地灾评估,消减地灾存量,控制地灾增量。

铁路地质灾害勘察识别与监测预警

地质灾害对铁路建设、安全运营构成了极大威胁,“天空地”一体化综合勘察技术有效解决了地质灾害勘察识别难题。“天”基多源立体卫星遥感技术实现艰险复杂山区地质灾害的大范围精准判识,长时序InSAR与高精度GPS实现高陡岸坡的稳定性监测分析;“空”基真实感大场景、机载倾斜摄影和机载LiDAR扫描技术实现高植被覆盖区隐蔽性地质灾害判识;“地”基三维立体勘探技术获取岩土体结构、属性、参数;共同构建沟谷山地灾害链风险评价方案,为建设工程合理选址和工程设置提供依据。介绍地质灾害监测预警的方法、内容、技术和预警模型,对监测预警技术发展方向进行展望。

基于PS-InSAR技术的晋城矿区地表形变监测及地质灾害风险预警

地表形变是一种严重的地质灾害现象,不仅严重影响灾害区居民的日常生活,而且会造成巨大的社会经济危害,尤其在采煤区。针对传统地表沉陷监测方法费时费力、无法获取地表沉降面状信息、难以进行地表沉陷灾害评估的不足,基于高分辨率SAR卫星影像,利用永久散射体合成孔径雷达干涉测量(PS-InSAR)技术对山西省晋城市晋城矿区2018年1月至2018年12月期间地表沉陷进行监测,分析获取了该地区地表连续形变情况,并利用该技术获取的海量PS点建立支持向量机(SVM)地质灾害风险评估预警模型,对晋城矿区周边居民点地质灾害风险进行了识别和预测。结果表明:晋城矿区10个煤矿及其周边区域存在较大的地表形变;晋城矿区平均LOS向年平均地表形变速率范围为-37~30.3 mm/a;PS-InSAR技术在晋城矿区地表形变监测中具有可行性,且可以实现矿区地质灾害风险综合识别和预警。

我国煤矿开采工作面顶板灾害及防治技术研究现状

从岩层控制理论、监测预警技术及装备、矿压规律及数据分析、防控手段等方面系统地阐述了当前我国煤矿开采工作面顶板灾害方面的研究现状。当前工作面顶板灾害依然是制约我国煤矿安全生产的重要因素,近两年来无论是顶板灾害起数还是伤亡人数,均呈明显上升的趋势,顶板灾害防控依然严峻。在矿压基础理论研究方面,国内科研人员相继提出了“砌体梁”、“传递岩梁”、“组合悬臂梁–铰接岩梁”、“切落体”和“分区支撑理论”等力学结构模型,明确了不同岩层赋存条件下顶板灾害致灾机理;在顶板灾害监测预警方面,我国煤矿已经开始摆脱传统单一的近场矿压监测,逐步向工作面近、远场顶板状态联合实时监测、动态感知、协同预警发展,实现矿压监测系统监测近场支架工作阻力、顶板下沉量、煤体应力等,微震监测系统监测工作面远场上覆岩层顶板断裂位置和能量大小;在矿压规律及数据分析方面,总结了浅埋深、坚硬顶板、非坚硬顶板不同围岩赋存状态下工作面矿压规律,明确了各条件下支架工作阻力的增阻特性;在顶板灾害防治方面,针对不同围岩赋存条件下易发生的顶板灾害类型,形成了相对应的顶板灾害防治技术,针对矿压显现较强烈,容易发生顶板灾害的坚硬顶板矿井,通过顶板深孔爆破、浅孔水力压裂、井下定向区域水力压裂、地面水力压裂等技术,有效地预防了顶板灾害的发生。总体而言,我国工作面顶板灾害防控理论及技术体系仍在不断完善,随着新技术的不断发展和智能化矿井的建设,顶板灾害的智能预警及联动防控将获得更大的发展。

大型危岩体崩塌灾害早期监测预警技术研究综述

作为中国常见的一种地质灾害,大型危岩崩塌成因复杂、分布范围广、隐蔽性和突发性强、危害性大,其早期预警一直难以实现。通过总结岩体崩塌灾害失稳机理与预警模型可知,开展岩桥结构面损伤识别及静力学-动力学-环境量参量(SDEI)的综合性监测技术研究是实现大型危岩体崩塌灾害早期监测预警的关键所在,而基于分离破坏前兆识别的早期预警机制研究是提高崩塌灾害预警时效性的有效手段之一。随着微机电系统与云边融合技术的发展,在未来有望形成一套稳定性动态评价、失稳工况预测与失稳时间预测模型实时联动的多元预警新范式。与此同时,还需通过不断丰富大型危岩崩塌等脆性破坏灾害预警技术体系,实现危岩体预警等级、稳定性状态、失稳工况、失稳时间的实时分析,进而有效解决大型危岩体崩塌灾害科学精准防控与智慧化应急决策的双重难题。最后,针对目前崩塌灾害早期监测预警研究中存在的技术瓶颈问题,提出具体的发展策略与应对措施,以期为中国地质灾害高风险区更好地应对大型危岩体崩塌灾害提供一些参考。

基于概率模型的四川省降水诱发地质灾害风险预警方法研究

开展降水诱发地质灾害风险预警是降低地质灾害风险的重要手段之一。基于2008-2019年四川省地质灾害历史灾情数据,在地理分区基础上,以地形、岩土、植被、气候因子为区划评价因子,采用信息量模型,将四川省划分为7个地质灾害分区。以正态化处理后的地质灾害有效降水量为建模因子,采用高斯拟合方法,建立各分区降水诱发地质灾害概率模型,并进行地质灾害预警检验。结果表明:(1)四川省可划分为盆地及盆周山区低易发区、中等易发区、高易发区,西南山地次易发区、易发区,川西高原次易发区、易发区等7个地质灾害分区。(2)ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristic)曲线分析表明,盆地及盆周山区的地质灾害分区精度略低于西南山地区和川西高原区的分区精度。(3)各分区正态化处理后的有效降水量与地质灾害频率具有很好的高斯分布关系。(4)建立的降水诱发地质灾害概率模型的地质灾害预警成功率为72%,当日降水量≥10 mm时,地质灾害预警成功率为83%。

煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害监测预警与防控技术研究进展

煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害是深部煤炭开采的重大安全隐患,探明其致灾机理、发展监测预警及防控技术是防治关键。提出了煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害防治“四面体”理论,即分别从灾害分类、灾害机理、灾害预警、灾害防控4个层面概述煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害研究进展。总结了以能量释放主体、初始瓦斯压力、载荷条件为主的复合动力灾害类型划分依据;梳理了理论分析尺度和实验室尺度下的复合动力灾害机理研究进展,发现应力路径、微裂纹动态演化和煤岩赋存地质因素临界指标是致灾机理研究的关键;概述了以前期灾害前兆信息判识、中期灾害前兆信息采集、后期灾害一体化监测预警为主线的复合动力灾害监测预警技术研究进展;揭示了复合动力灾害消能减灾一体化防控技术和多尺度分源防控关键技术科学内涵。在此基础上针对两淮矿区灾害特点,提出了深部强动载条件下复合动力灾害智能判识与预警方法和分区协同防控方法。基于当前研究进展,提出了煤岩瓦斯复合动力灾害研究亟待解决的问题,助力实现深部煤炭安全、精准、高效开采。

基于普适型监测预警体系中多参数模型研究——以云南省保山市大园子滑坡为例

为全面发展“人防+技防”的地质灾害防治技术体系,构建以普适型监测仪器为主的地质灾害监测预警体系,以云贵高原地区中的云南省保山市大园子滑坡为例,详细介绍了滑坡从方案设计到数据筛选及模型设计等各环节,主要选取降雨、位移变形和裂缝三类参数模型在监测预警体系中的应用,通过采集地质灾害体的关键信息,优化监测预警模型及调整阈值,及时捕捉地质灾害体的变化信息,依靠平台判据模型自主触发预警,完成了普适型监测预警体系建设的关键环节,从而实现了普适型监测预警的效果,极大的提升了地质灾害防治体系的自动化和智能化能力。

基于文本数据的灾害信息风险监测与预警集成方法研究

基于灾害信息的文本数据,该文提出一种风险监测与预警集成方法,以提高灾害信息风险监测效率及监测支持预警的针对性。首先,运用八爪鱼数据采集器采集和处理灾害信息的文本数据;其次,运用BTM主题模型构建灾害信息风险监测模型,得到主题热度趋势并确定具有高风险且亟待预警的话题;然后,提出灾害信息风险预警指标体系和预警等级判定方法,计算所确定话题的风险综合指标预警加权值,并结合预警区间判定预警等级;最后,以2021年“7·20”郑州特大暴雨灾害信息的风险监测和预警为例进行实验分析,验证所提方法的可行性。研究表明,该方法可将灾害信息的文本数据贯穿于风险监测与预警两个过程,有助于为监测结果更有针对性地支持预警工作提供参考。