目的 探讨rSIG/A(reverse shock index multiplied by Glasgow coma score divided by age)在急诊创伤患者中对预后的评估价值。方法 收集2012年1月至2014年3月浙江大学医学院附属第一医院急诊收治的1060例创伤患者的临床资料,以28d预...目的 探讨rSIG/A(reverse shock index multiplied by Glasgow coma score divided by age)在急诊创伤患者中对预后的评估价值。方法 收集2012年1月至2014年3月浙江大学医学院附属第一医院急诊收治的1060例创伤患者的临床资料,以28d预后为结局,将患者分为存活组和死亡组;根据rSIG/A最佳截断值,将患者分为rSIG/A≤0.34组和rSIG/A>0.34组;根据急性生理学和慢性健康状况评价Ⅱ(acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ,APACHE Ⅱ)评分最佳截断值,将患者分为APACHE Ⅱ评分≤12分组、APACHE Ⅱ评分>12分组。回顾性分析其生命体征、格拉斯哥昏迷评分(Glasgow coma score,GCS)、APACHE Ⅱ评分、rSIG/A、病死率等指标,并比较rSIG/A与APACHE Ⅱ评分间的关系,分析其与预后的关系。结果 存活组患者的rSIG/A、GCS评分均高于死亡组,APACHE Ⅱ评分低于死亡组(P<0.01)。rSIG/A与APACHE Ⅱ评分对创伤患者病死率均有一定的预测价值(曲线下面积分别为0.866、0.856),但两者间差异无统计学意义。rSIG/A≤0.34组患者的APACHE Ⅱ评分、病死率均大于rSIG/A>0.34组(P<0.01),APACHE Ⅱ评分≤12分组患者的rSIG/A值大于APACHE Ⅱ评分>12分组,病死率小于APACHE Ⅱ评分>12分组(P<0.01)。创伤患者rSIG/A值与APACHE Ⅱ评分呈负相关(r=–0.574,P<0.01)。rSIG/A值(OR=0.008,95%CI:0~0.620,P=0.030)与死亡呈负相关;APACHE Ⅱ评分(OR=1.106,95%CI:1.009~1.213,P=0.031)与死亡呈正相关(P<0.05)。结论 rSIG/A、APACHE Ⅱ评分在创伤患者伤情严重程度及预后评估方面有一定的价值,但由于rSIG/A具有无创、简便、快速及持续评估的优势,因此,更加值得在急诊推广。展开更多
Background Severity scoring systems are useful tools for measuring the severity of the disease and its outcome. This pilot study was to verify and compare the prognostic performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology ...Background Severity scoring systems are useful tools for measuring the severity of the disease and its outcome. This pilot study was to verify and compare the prognostic performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II （SAPS II） and Glasgow Coma Scale （GCS） in neuro-intensive care unit （N-ICU） patients. Methods A total of 1684 patients consecutively admitted to the N-ICU at Xuanwu Hospital between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2011 were enrolled in this study. The data-base included admission data, at 24-, 48-, and 72-hour SAPS II and GCS. Repeated measure data analysis of variance, Logistic regression analysis, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic were used to evaluate the performance. Results There was a significant difference between the SAPS II or GCS score at four time points （F=16.110, P=0.000 or F=8.108, P=0.000）. The SAPS II scores or GCS score at four time points interacted with the outcomes with significant difference （F=116.771, P=0.000 or F=65.316, P=0.000）. Calibration of the SAPS II or GCS score at each time point on all patients was good. The percentage of a risk estimate prediction corresponding to observed mortality was also good. The 72-hour score have the greatest consistency. Discriminations of the SAPS II or GCS score at each time were all satisfactory. The 72-hour score had the greatest discriminative power. The cut-off value was 33 （sensitivity of 85.2% and specificity of 74.3%） and 6 （sensitivity of 70.6% and specificity of 65.0%）. The SAPS II at each time point on all patients showed better calibration, consistency and discrimination than GCS. The binary Logistic regression analysis identified physiological variables, GCS, age, and disease category as significant independent risk factors of death. After the two variables including underlying disease and type of admission were excluded, we built the simplified SAPS II model. A correlation was suggested between the simplified SAPS II score at each time point and outcome, regardless of the diagnosis. Conclusions The GCS scoring system tends to be a little weaker in the predictive power than the SAPS II scoring system in this Chinese cohort of N-ICU patients. The advantage of SAPS II scoring system still exists that it dose not need to take into account the diagnosis or diseases categories, even in the special N-ICU. The simplified SAPS II scoring system is considered a new idea for the estimation of effectiveness.展开更多
文摘Background Severity scoring systems are useful tools for measuring the severity of the disease and its outcome. This pilot study was to verify and compare the prognostic performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II （SAPS II） and Glasgow Coma Scale （GCS） in neuro-intensive care unit （N-ICU） patients. Methods A total of 1684 patients consecutively admitted to the N-ICU at Xuanwu Hospital between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2011 were enrolled in this study. The data-base included admission data, at 24-, 48-, and 72-hour SAPS II and GCS. Repeated measure data analysis of variance, Logistic regression analysis, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic were used to evaluate the performance. Results There was a significant difference between the SAPS II or GCS score at four time points （F=16.110, P=0.000 or F=8.108, P=0.000）. The SAPS II scores or GCS score at four time points interacted with the outcomes with significant difference （F=116.771, P=0.000 or F=65.316, P=0.000）. Calibration of the SAPS II or GCS score at each time point on all patients was good. The percentage of a risk estimate prediction corresponding to observed mortality was also good. The 72-hour score have the greatest consistency. Discriminations of the SAPS II or GCS score at each time were all satisfactory. The 72-hour score had the greatest discriminative power. The cut-off value was 33 （sensitivity of 85.2% and specificity of 74.3%） and 6 （sensitivity of 70.6% and specificity of 65.0%）. The SAPS II at each time point on all patients showed better calibration, consistency and discrimination than GCS. The binary Logistic regression analysis identified physiological variables, GCS, age, and disease category as significant independent risk factors of death. After the two variables including underlying disease and type of admission were excluded, we built the simplified SAPS II model. A correlation was suggested between the simplified SAPS II score at each time point and outcome, regardless of the diagnosis. Conclusions The GCS scoring system tends to be a little weaker in the predictive power than the SAPS II scoring system in this Chinese cohort of N-ICU patients. The advantage of SAPS II scoring system still exists that it dose not need to take into account the diagnosis or diseases categories, even in the special N-ICU. The simplified SAPS II scoring system is considered a new idea for the estimation of effectiveness.
