Studying the co-evolution of information diffusion,vaccination behavior and disease transmission in multilayer networks with local and global effects

Today,with the rapid development of the internet,a large amount of information often accompanies the rapid transmission of disease outbreaks,and increasing numbers of scholars are studying the relationship between information and the disease transmission process using complex networks.In fact,the disease transmission process is very complex.Besides this information,there will often be individual behavioral measures and other factors to consider.Most of the previous research has aimed to establish a two-layer network model to consider the impact of information on the transmission process of disease,rarely divided into information and behavior,respectively.To carry out a more in-depth analysis of the disease transmission process and the intrinsic influencing mechanism,this paper divides information and behavior into two layers and proposes the establishment of a complex network to study the dynamic co-evolution of information diffusion,vaccination behavior,and disease transmission.This is achieved by considering four influential relationships between adjacent layers in multilayer networks.In the information layer,the diffusion process of negative information is described,and the feedback effects of local and global vaccination are considered.In the behavioral layer,an individual's vaccination behavior is described,and the probability of an individual receiving a vaccination is influenced by two factors:the influence of negative information,and the influence of local and global disease severity.In the disease layer,individual susceptibility is considered to be influenced by vaccination behavior.The state transition equations are derived using the micro Markov chain approach(MMCA),and disease prevalence thresholds are obtained.It is demonstrated through simulation experiments that the negative information diffusion is less influenced by local vaccination behavior,and is mainly influenced by global vaccination behavior;vaccination behavior is mainly influenced by local disease conditions,and is less influenced by global disease conditions;the disease transmission threshold increases with the increasing vaccination rate;and the scale of disease transmission increases with the increasing negative information diffusion rate and decreases with the increasing vaccination rate.Finally,it is found that when individual vaccination behavior considers both the influence of negative information and disease,it can increase the disease transmission threshold and reduce the scale of disease transmission.Therefore,we should resist the diffusion of negative information,increase vaccination proportions,and take appropriate protective measures in time.

Engineering tool for the evaluation of global IED effects

The detonation of an IED near a military vehicle induces different damage effects on the vehicle and its occupants. There are local effects from fragments and projectiles but there are also global effects from a momentum transfer on the complete vehicle structure and a subsequent dynamical motion of the vehicle with phenomena like overturning or vehicle displacement from the road.Questions like this can be answered with numerical finite-element simulations but there is also the need for engineering tools that allow a quick and nearly instantaneous simulation of these phenomena. The following work presents an approach for a fast analysis of global IED effects on vehicles. The physical modelling is based on analytical formula and empirical data that describe the momentum transfer of a detonation on a nearby structure. This momentum is the initial condition for the calculation of the following vehicle motion and the simulation of vehicle dynamics and jump height.The software itself has a modern GUI that allows the generation of the vehicle structure and the threat scenario together with an interactive analysis of the simulation results.The engineering tool is validated with small size generic vehicle tests where jump height and the vehicle motion are compared. The software allows a detailed analysis of global IED effects and can be additionally used in an inverse mode for the analysis of incidents with the determination of used HE masses in an IED attack.

Relativistic Effects in the Global Positioning System

The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses accurate atomic clocks in satellites and on the ground to provide world-wide position and time determination. These clocks have gravitational and motional frequency shifts which are so large that, without properly accounting for relativistic effects, the system would not work. As a practical matter, therefore, many individuals who use the GPS need to understand how relativistic effects accounted for in the system. This paper discusses relativistic effects arising from both special relativity and general relativity, and how these effects are incorporated in GPS operations. Two introductory sections on kinematics in special and general relativity, respectively, are followed by a section which describes how relativistic effects should be accounted for. The concept of synchroization in the Earth-Centered Inertial frame is discussed in detail. Numerical and experimental examples are given, showing the sizes of the various effects. The treatment of special and general relativity is sufficiently complete that a person should be able to follow the development without much reference to external material, except that a few standard results have been quoted from textbooks without derivation.

Globalization's Effect on Today's Seafarers

The Role of Manning AgenciesThe decline of the era where the people that owned the ships, managed the ships and hired their own crews saw the development of ship management firms and manning agencies. As the supply of seafarers moved from the traditional maritime nations to India, the Far East and Asia, the services of the manning agencies were gradually built into the system.

Effect of Ocean Thermal Diffusivity on Global Warming Induced by Increasing Atmospheric CO_2

A global mean ocean model including atmospheric heating, heat capacity of the mixed layer ocean, and vertical thermal diffusivity in the lower ocean, proposed by Cess and Goldenberg (1981), is used in this paper to study the sensitivity of global warming to the vertical diffusivity. The results suggest that the behaviour of upper ocean temperature is mainly determined by the magnitude of upper layer diffusivity and an ocean with a larger diffusivity leads to a less increase of sea surface temperature and a longer time delay for the global warming induced by increasing CO2 than that with smaller one. The global warming relative to four scenarios of CO2 emission assumed by Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also estimated by using the model with two kinds of thermal diffusivities. The result shows that for various combinations of the CO2 emission scenarios and the diffusivities, the oceanic time delay to the global warming varies from 15 years to 70 years.

Volatility Modelling of Global Financial Crises Effects on the Nigerian Banks

The most appropriate heteroskedastic models for predicting volatility of daily stocks prices of 10 major Nigerian banks are proposed. The banks are Access, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust, Skye, Diamond, Fidelity, Sterling,?Union, ETI and Zenith banks;and these are examined from 2004 to 2014.?The models employed are Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH(1)), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH(1, 1)),?Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic?(EGARCH(1, 1))?and Glosten, Jagananthan and Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic?(GJR-GARCH(1, 1)). The results show that all the?bank returns are highly leptokurtic, significantly skewed and thus non-normal across the four periods except for Fidelity bank during financial crises;findings similar to those of other global markets. Also noticed is the strong evidence for the presence of heteroscedasticity, and that volatility persistence during crisis?is?higher than before the crisis across the 10 banks, with that of UBA taking the lead, about 11 times higher during the crisis. The same with persistence?levels in volatility, which were relatively higher during financial crises across the ten banks compared to before the crises.?Findings further indicate that Asymmetric GARCH models outperformed the symmetric GARCH models, especially during the financial crises and post the crises. Thus with these findings, one could generally conclude that Nigerian banks’?returns are volatility persistent during and after the crises, and are characterized by leverage effects of negative and positive shocks during these periods.

A Numerical Study of the Mechanism for the Effect of Northern Winter Arctic Ice Cover on the Global Short-Range Climate Evolution

By using a nine-layer global spectral model involving fuller parameterization of physical processes, with a rhomboidal truncation at wavenumber 15, experiments are performed in terms of two numerical schemes, one with long-term mean coverage of Arctic ice (Exp.1), the other without the ice (Exp.2). Results indicate that the Arctic region is a heat source in Exp.2 relative to the case in Exp.1. Under the influence of the polar heat source simulated, there still exist stationary wavetrains that produce WA-EUP and weak PNA patterns in Northern winter. That either the Arctic or the tropical heat source can cause identical climatic effects is due to the fact that the anomaly of the Arctic ice cover will directly induce a south-propagating wavetrain, and bring about the redistribution of the tropical heat source / sink. The redistribution is responsible for new wavetrains that will exert impact on the global climate. The simulation results bear out further that the polar region in Exp.2 as a heat source, can produce, by local forcing, a pair of positive and negative difference centers, which circle the Arctic moving eastwards. Observed in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is a 40-50 day oscillation in relation to the moving pair, both having the same period.

Refinement and Quantification of Terrain-Induced Effects on Global Gravity Data

The geodetic and geophysical applications of Earth Gravity Field parameters computed from Global Geopotential Models (GGMs) are quite on the increase despite the inherent commission and omission errors of these models. In view of this, this study focuses on refining and quantifying terrain-induced effects on Bouguer gravity anomalies computed directly from a total of seven recent GGMs. In the study, the Residual Terrain Model (RTM) technique was used to estimate the residual terrain effects that were added to the GGM-computed Bouguer gravity anomalies at the sixty test points in Enugu State, Nigeria. The computed residual terrain effects range from -24.6 to 37.5 mgal while the percentage of the omission errors of the GGMs based on their Root-Mean-Square (RMS) differences ranges from 7.8% to 44.7%. It can be concluded that GGM-refined Bouguer gravity anomalies are better in accuracy than the unrefined GGM-computed Bouguer gravity anomalies and hence there is need for accurate height information in the development of GGMs. We, therefore, recommend that refined Bouguer gravity anomalies obtained from HUST-Grace2016s, EIGEN-6C4 and GECO that gave best improvement amongst the seven GGMs under consideration should be used to supplement the available terrestrial Bouguer anomalies for geodetic and geophysical applications within the study area.

环境约束下的中国耕地利用效率及影响因——基于Global Malmquist-Luenberger指数方法

利用GML指数方法和面板数据回归模型,兼顾面源污染和碳排放,测度并分析2009~2015年中国耕地利用效率的时空分异特征及影响因素,明确不同区域的耕地利用效率提升途径。结果表明,在考虑非期望产出情况下,我国耕地利用效率大致呈逐年上升趋势。四大区域耕地利用效率均不同程度增长,其中东北地区耕地利用效率波动幅度较大;从各区域耕地利用效率的动力源看,技术进步是四大区域耕地利用效率增长的主要动力,纯技术效率与规模效率成为制约四大区域耕地利用效率增长的瓶颈;各影响因素对各区域耕地利用效率影响存在差异。耕地资源禀赋对东部、中部、东北地区耕地利用效率影响显著,西部地区则易受自然条件影响。

Air Pollution or Global Warming:Attribution of Extreme Precipitation Changes in Eastern China—Comments on “Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes”

The recent study ＂Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes＂ attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.

PERSISTENCE AND THE GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF THE POSITIVE SOLUTIONS FOR A RATIODEPENDENT PREDATOR-PREY SYSTEM WITH A CROWDING TERM IN THE PREY EQUATION

This paper deals with the global dynamical behaviors of the positive solutions for a parabolic type ratio-dependent predator-prey system with a crowding term in the prey equation, where it is assumed that the coefficient of the functional response is less than the coefficient of the intrinsic growth rates of the prey species. We demonstrated some special dynamical behaviors of the positive solutions of this system which the persistence of the coexistence of two species can be obtained when the crowding region in the prey equation only is designed suitably. Furthermore, we can obtain that under some conditions, the unique positive steady state solution of the system is globally asymptotically stable.

An assessment of global ocean wave energy resources over the last 45 a

Against the background of the current world facing an energy crisis,and human beings puzzled by the problems of environment and resources,developing clean energy sources becomes the inevitable choice to deal with a climate change and an energy shortage.A global ocean wave energy resource was reanalyzed by using ERA-40 wave reanalysis data 1957–2002 from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts（ECMWF）.An effective significant wave height is defined in the development of wave energy resources（short as effective SWH）,and the total potential of wave energy is exploratively calculated.Synthetically considering a wave energy density,a wave energy level probability,the frequency of the effective SWH,the stability and long-term trend of wave energy density,a swell index and a wave energy storage,global ocean wave energy resources were reanalyzed and regionalized,providing reference to the development of wave energy resources such as wave power plant location,seawater desalination,heating,pumping.

Climatic change and urbanization effect in China

Climatic change and urbanization effect in China during the last 39 years were investigated. It is found that a warming of about 0.23℃ for the annual temperature has been noticed from 1951 to 1989. The warmings of about 0.78 ℃ in winter and 0.34 3℃ in spring have been shown. It is also presented that a cooling of about -0.27℃ in summer has been indicated. The bigger cities are warmer than smaller cities in China. The dried trends in the annual precipitation during the last 39 years were presented. The precipitation decreased obviously in summer all over China. The bigger cities were drier than smaller cities.

CO_2 seasonal variation and global change: Test global warming from another point of view

CO2 and temperature records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and other observation stations show that the correlation between CO2 and temperature is not significant. These stations are located away from big cities, and in various latitudes and hemi-spheres. But the correlation is significant in global mean data. Over the last five decades, CO2 has grown at an accelerating rate with no corresponding rise in temperature in the stations. This discrepancy indicates that CO2 probably is not the driving force of temperature change globally but only locally （mainly in big cities）. We suggest that the Earth＇s atmospheric concentration of CO2 is too low to drive global temperature change. Our empirical perception of the global warming record is due to the urban heat island effect： temperature rises in areas with rising population density and rising industrial activity. This effect mainly occurs in the areas with high population and intense human activities, and is not representative of global warming. Regions far from cities, such as the Mauna Loa highland, show no evident warming trend. The global monthly mean temperature calculated by record data, widely used by academic researchers, shows R2=0.765, a high degree of correlation with CO2 . However, the R2 shows much less significance （mean R2=0.024） if calculated by each record for 188 selected stations over the world. This test suggests that the inflated high correlation between CO2 and temperature （mean R2=0.765-0.024=0.741） used in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） was very likely produced during data correction and processing. This untrue global monthly mean temperature has created a picture： human emission drives global warming.

Sensitivity experiments and assessment of climatic changes in China induced by greenhouse effect

Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in China .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in China as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in China due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in China, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.

全球价值链的脱钩与反脱钩:来自中国制造业企业微观数据的经验证据

本文基于中国制造业上市公司的微观数据和WIOD及亚行的世界投入产出表数据,考察美国的价值链脱钩策略对中国企业创新内在动力的激发效应和对中国全球价值链地位攀升的影响。研究发现:首先,美国的价值链脱钩策略对中国企业创新内在动力存在显著的正向激发作用,且激发效应能够抵消遏制效应。其次,脱钩策略对中国全球价值链地位攀升的叠加效应显著为正,与产业上游度负相关,表明美国的脱钩策略并不会阻断中国全球价值链地位的攀升和产业技术水平的提高。最后,中国企业自主创新对FDI技术外溢的吸收和转化等“学习效应”过于依赖,存在“低质低效”的双低现象,降低了价值链地位攀升的效率。FDI对产业价值链地位有显著的提升作用,但对国内企业“高质高效”的自主创新具有抑制作用。本文结论为提高企业自主创新质量和效率以及价值链地位提供了政策启示。

Measuring system of high polymers' pyromagnetic effect

The measurement system is the main equipment of the project.Based on the characteristic of experiment system,a sensor array is designed,and used to continually acquire the global magnetic field.A scientific scheme is developed to get the signal processing and temperature compensation for nondirective weak magnetic field.The software of sampling control system is given,which is complied using C language in Labwindows/CVI.Taking computer as main engine,the system can acquire the nondirective weak magnetic field automatically and continuously use the sensor array,the change of magnetic field can be shown in real-time and intuitively.

THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON DESERTIFICATION IN CHINA

Global change and desertification are the serious environmental problems in the world today and exert great impacts on human existence and social development. Therefore, the United Nations has set up quite a number of relevant organizations to encourage millions upon millions of people to combat this harmful problem. At the same time, since the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification has been signed and this signment of the Convention will powerfully promote the concrete action programs to combat desertification of each affected country and enlarge the exchange and cooperation among the affected countries. According to recent information of UN Organizations, more than 100 countries and their one-fifth world of population are facing the problem of desertification processes and desertification impacts, and are suffering from expansion of desertification. The total areas of arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid zones cover approximately about 6.5 billion ha, occupying 41 percent of the total land area of the earth. There are 3.6 billion ha of arable land and grazing land under the impact of desertification in the world. From 1984 to 1991, the annual increase of land desertification is 3.4 percent. The harmful results of desertification on human existence in terms of environment, societies and economy are serious and called for great attention from the UN Systems. It is concluded that desertification is the most serious environmental problem in the world and its resulting impact is socially and economically surprising.

Qualitative Considerations on the Influence of the Gases Water Vapor and Carbon Dioxide on the Global Environmental Temperature from the Point of View of Textbook Knowledge

The solar radiation that hits the Earth conditions the dynamic equilibrium that prevails on our planet. Consideration of basic physical-chemical knowledge shows that this equilibrium can be changed only by additional energy input or prolongation of the interaction time solar radiation—Earth matter. The contribution of H2O(g) and CO2 to the protection of the earth against excessive warming is experimentally and by basic laws of nature secured. For a greenhouse effect, a part of the earth radiation must be radiated back to the earth and then into space. If one understands the earth radiation as radiation of a black body with the average global environmental temperature, from all vibrations normal modes of the gases H2O(g) and CO2 only the bending mode of CO2 with 4% of the solar constant can contribute beside the rotational modes of the water to the greenhouse effect. The contributions of the normal modes of H2O(g) and CO2 to the heat capacity of the atmosphere are negligible. Therefore, in agreement with studies by K. Ångström, CO2 contributes only to the stabilization of the global environmental temperature. Whether the use of renewable energies can actually at least mitigate the increase of the environmental temperature is by no means certain but must be examined for each individual case. With certainty, this goal can only be achieved by reducing the energy consumption of mankind.

中国文学走出去效果评估指标体系建设:原则与方法

在中华文化走出去战略引领下,中国文学翻译与传播事业如火如荼,逐渐由路径探索深入到提质增效阶段,文学走出去效果评估研究成为热点。本文依据拉斯韦尔传播过程“5W”模式厘析影响中国文学走出去效果的多种因素,利用德尔菲法和层次分析法确立效果评估指标并赋以权重,最终建构一个中国文学走出去效果评估体系,以期为中国文学海外传播效果评估提供较为科学并实用的量具,为中国文学对外翻译实践提供参考。