Regional Agricultural Input-Output Model and Countermeasure for Production and Income Increase of Farmers in Southern Xinjiang,China

Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.

TECHNIQUES OF CONSTRUCTING REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES: ACHIEVEMENTS

The development of any analytical method should have to experience at least four stages: its initial status, growth, mature and declining. However, although the regional input-output analysis has been widely applied for more than forty years, it is still one of the most important approach in regional economic analysis and forecast at present in the world. This is due to the never ended modifications and its great potentials. In this paper, we review the historical development of the regional input-output analysis.

APPLICATION OF FRF ESTIMATOR BASED ON ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL IN MULTI-INPUT MULTI-OUTPUT VIBRATION CONTROL SYSTEM

The FRF estimator based on the errors-in-variables （EV） model of multi-input multi-output （MIMO） system is presented to reduce the bias error of FRF HI estimator. The FRF HI estimator is influenced by the noises in the inputs of the system and generates an under-estimation of the true FRF. The FRF estimator based on the EV model takes into account the errors in both the inputs and outputs of the system and would lead to more accurate FRF estimation. The FRF estimator based on the EV model is applied to the waveform replication on the 6-DOF （degree-of-freedom） hydraulic vibration table. The result shows that it is favorable to improve the control precision of the MIMO vibration control system.

A multi-input and multi-output design on automotive engine management system

Lookup table is widely used in automotive industry for the design of engine control units(ECU).Together with a proportional-integral controller,a feed-forward and feedback control scheme is often adopted for automotive engine management system(EMS).Usually,an ECU has a structure of multi-input and single-output(MISO).Therefore,if there are multiple objectives proposed in EMS,there would be corresponding numbers of ECUs that need to be designed.In this situation,huge efforts and time were spent on calibration.In this work,a multi-input and multi-out(MIMO) approach based on model predictive control(MPC) was presented for the automatic cruise system of automotive engine.The results show that the tracking of engine speed command and the regulation of air/fuel ratio(AFR) can be achieved simultaneously under the new scheme.The mean absolute error(MAE) for engine speed control is 0.037,and the MAE for air fuel ratio is 0.069.

Auxiliary Model Based Multi-innovation Stochastic Gradient Identification Methods for Hammerstein Output-Error System

Special input signals identification method based on the auxiliary model based multi-innovation stochastic gradient algorithm for Hammerstein output-error system was proposed.The special input signals were used to realize the identification and separation of the Hammerstein model.As a result,the identification of the dynamic linear part can be separated from the static nonlinear elements without any redundant adjustable parameters.The auxiliary model based multi-innovation stochastic gradient algorithm was applied to identifying the serial link parameters of the Hammerstein model.The auxiliary model based multi-innovation stochastic gradient algorithm can avoid the influence of noise and improve the identification accuracy by changing the innovation length.The simulation results show the efficiency of the proposed method.

Multi-regional input-output analysis for China＇s regional CH4 emissions

China is the largest CH4 emitter in the world. Given the importance of CH4 in greenhouse gas emission inventories, the characteristics ofChina＇s CH4 emissions at different scales deserve to be fully understood. Presented in this paper is an interprovincial input output embodi- ment analysis of China＇s regional CH4 emissions in 2007, based on the most recently available multi-regional input- output table, and relevant CH4 emissions data. The results show that the eastern, central and western areas contribute to 48.2%, 28.6%, and 23.3% of the national total embodied emissions, respectively. Guangdong has the highest level of embodied CH4 emissions among all of the 30 regions. The Agriculture sector produces the most embodied CH4 emissions in final demand, followed by the Construction, Food Production and Tobacco Processing, and Other Service Activities sectors. Significant net transfers of embodied CH4 emission flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Shanxi is the largest interregional exporter of embodied CH4 emissions. In contrast, Guangdong is the largest interregional importer. Energy activities, agricultural activities, and waste management comprise 65.6%, 30.7%, and 3.7% of the total embodied CH4 emissions in interregional trade, respectively. By using consumption-based accounting principles, the emis- sion magnitudes, per capita emissions, and emission intensities of most eastern regions increase remarkably, while those of some central and western regions decrease largely. To achieve regional CH4 emission mitigation, comprehensive mitigation measures should be designed under consideration of regional transfer of emission responsibility.

An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador

The 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for productive exchanges and the accumulation of capital in Ecuador.This study addressed one of these challenges with an innovative ex ante model to measure the partial and net short-term effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe from an interregional perspective,with the 16 April 2016 earthquake serving as a case study.In general,the specified and estimated model follows the approach of the extended Miyazawa model,which endogenizes consumption demand in a standard input–output model with the subnational interrelations and resulting multipliers.Due to the country’s limitations in its regional account records the input–output matrices for each province of Ecuador had to be estimated,which then allowed transactions carried out between any two sectors within or outside a given province to be identified by means of the RAS method.The estimations provide evidence that the net short-term impact on the national accounts was not significant,and under some of the simulated scenarios,based on the official information with respect to earthquake management,the impact may even have had a positive effect on the growth of the national product during 2016.

数字经济对国民经济的引领作用研究——基于多区域投入产出表

为探究数字经济对国民经济发展的作用效果,编制中国数字经济多区域投入产出表,将产业关联系数的计算拓展到多地区多部门情形,并通过定义溢出效应来区分各地区数字经济发展对地区内外经济拉动和推动的差异化效果。研究发现:数字经济对国民经济发展的拉动效应强于推动效应。东部地区已经实现服务业拉动转向数字产业拉动的动力转换,中西部地区则展现了由工业拉动直接转向数字产业拉动经济发展的演变模式;各地区数字经济发展主要拉动和推动本地区经济增长,但数字经济对拉动和推动城市群内部经济协调发展效果显著,如长三角和珠三角等区域;经济发展水平较高地区的数字产业属于“消费依赖型”产业;而工业发达地区和欠发达地区数字经济发展更依赖于投资。研究数字经济与实体经济融合发展具有重要的理论价值与现实意义,据此提出推动数字经济发展的政策参考。

中国经济国内国际双循环测度——基于三种GDP分解的比较分析

依据单一GDP分解方法测度双循环存在多种缺陷。本文从增加值流转视角比较分析三种GDP分解方法下的直接指标,构建一种以间接指标测度双循环的新框架,并将其应用于中国经济双循环格局演化分析和国际比较分析。研究表明,1995—2018年,中国制造业国内循环比例呈逐渐下降又大幅回调过程,本质上是对中国双循环格局“大内循环倾向”特征的回归,并不代表“国内大循环为主”经济发展格局已经形成;不同经济体双循环格局具有明显异质性,即具有“大内循环倾向”或“小内循环倾向”。这种异质性相对稳定,经济体双循环格局的演变进程主要表现为国内外市场关联和上下游产业关联两种结构力量作用下,在双循环类型空间的局部调整。从构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局出发,反映国内国际循环比例的直接指标不是合适的政策目标,中国应根据不同行业特点,根据间接指标所反映的双循环格局类型和结构特征,聚焦产业链整合和治理挖掘增长潜力。

基于多区域投入产出的黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放时空格局及结构分解

厘清黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放时空格局及其驱动因素,对于制定公平有效的减排方案,实现区域合作减排的重要目标至关重要。利用多区域投入产出模型深入研究2007—2017年黄河流域9个省区贸易隐含碳排放的构成,以及其在省级和行业层面的转移路径;通过结构分解方法,追踪黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放区域内外的影响因素,揭示其区域内外影响因素的异质性。结果表明:黄河流域整体呈净贸易隐含碳转出区域,主要由中间投入的贸易方式进入其他各省的生产需求时导致。该流域的生产供应和整体需求正向中西部和东北地区转移,而对东南沿海省份的供应和需求正逐渐减少。区域外的最终需求和本地的碳排放强度是影响转出贸易隐含碳的主要因素,区域内的最终需求和区域外的碳排放强度是影响转入贸易隐含碳的主要因素。此外,生产结构和最终需求是影响黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放的关键因素,前者对黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放起抑制作用,后者则主要起驱动作用。

省际粮食贸易隐含污染与环境比较优势研究

为协调粮食生产、贸易与面源污染的矛盾,实现绿色农业发展、区域间利益共赢,在测算省际粮食贸易量的基础上,运用灰水足迹方法计算各省隐含氮污染和污染强度,构建了粮食贸易隐含氮污染网络,解析了省际粮食生产隐含氮污染的环境比较优势。结果表明:中国省际粮食贸易网络格局由“条块式”转向“团块式”,贸易集中化趋势明显;省际粮食贸易隐含污染和污染强度呈下降趋势,但地区差异明显加剧了环境不公平;环境比较优势网络表现出“两头小,中间大”的橄榄形分布,环境比较优势最小的地区集中在华北地区,最大为黑龙江。

Triple-Polarized Multi-User Mimo-Idma System under Correlated Fading Channel

A multiple-input multiple-output interleave division multiple access (MIMO-IDMA) system with Triple Polarized Division Multiplexing (TPDM) is presented in this paper. The present methodology replaces three independent linearly polarized antennas with a single triple polarized antenna at both the transmitter and receiver. The users in the communication link are accommodated and separated using a user-specific interleaver combined with low rate spreading sequence. To eliminate the effects of multi-stream interference (MSI), minimum mean square error (MMSE) algorithm based on successive interference cancellation (SIC) Multi-user detection (MUD) technique is employed at the receiver. Furthermore, log-maximum a posteriori probability (MAPP) decoding algorithm is implemented at the mobile stations (MSs) to overcome the effects of multi-user interference (MUI) effects. The paper also evaluates the effects of coded MIMO-IDMA in the downlink communication by adopting the Stanford University Interim (SUI) and Long-term Evolution (LTE)channel model specifications. In comparison with the traditional uncoded system, the present solution considering turbo coded triple-polarized MIMO-IDMA system with iterative decoding algorithm provides better bit error rate (BER) with reduced signal to noise ratio (SNR). The simulation results also show that though the SNR requirement is higher for the proposed technique compared to the conventional uni-polarized antenna based MIMO-IDMA system, it gives the advantages of achieving higher data rate with reduced cost and space requirements in the context of a downlink (DL).

珠三角区域出口贸易隐含碳的测算与分解——基于投入产出模型和结构分解的实证分析

首先基于2016—2020年珠三角数据,运用投入产出法测算出口贸易隐含碳的排放量,然后通过SDA分解模型,从规模、结构和技术三个层面分析了主要影响因子。结果表明:2016年起珠三角净输入量呈现下降的趋势;从分部门出口贸易隐含碳结构分解可知,规模效应整体呈现出快速上升—达到高峰—逐渐减少的三个阶段;部门结构效应的大部分效益值为负,说明珠三角区域的产业结构较为合理,可以有效地抑制碳排放的增长。鉴于此,认为珠三角地区应当优化进出口产品结构,加大绿色低碳技术创新力度,鼓励区域间合作减排。

黄河流域水稀缺风险评价

基于黄河流域水稀缺特点及其成因,提出了综合考虑水量､水质和生态需水因素的流域水稀缺风险(WSR)评估框架,以此评估了2017年黄河流域90个地级市42个部门的直接水稀缺风险损失(DWSR),并通过构建城市尺度环境拓展多区域投入产出模型(MRIO),评估了城市间贸易驱动的间接水稀缺风险损失(IWSR).结果表明:流域DWSR和IWSR分别约为28941.49亿元和34464.08亿元,贸易导致的间接经济损失大于直接经济损失;各城市DWSR和IWSR整体上呈现一定的空间差异性,但高风险城市具有明显的空间集聚性和重合性,主要集中在流域中下游的山东､河南两省,如潍坊､淄博､郑州等;IWSR转移主要由各省内的城市间贸易产生,省际间的风险转移没有形成明显的热点区域;农林牧渔业､化学工业､石油加工､炼焦和核燃料加工业等部门的DWSR较高,同时也是主要的IWSR出口部门.建议结合识别出的重点城市､关键部门等全面加强WSR管理,协同推进黄河流域节水控水､水质改善和生态用水保障,促进流域水资源节约集约高效利用.

浅析基于AI的信道信息预测在6G中的应用

深入探讨了基于AI的信道信息预测在6G通信系统中的应用,并从信道信息预测的信道模型、信道信息预测方案、数据收集方法、模型监控技术、仿真验证结果,以及基于AI的信道信息预测所面临的机会与挑战这6个维度展开分析。在信道信息预测方案的分析中,广泛探索了多种信道信息预测策略;在数据收集方面,详细分析了不同参考信号传输类型及数据收集范围的影响;在模型监控方面,讨论了3种可能的监控方式。此外,通过仿真验证,充分展示了基于AI的信道信息预测技术的有效性和优越性。

中国省际贸易隐含PM_(2.5)排放转移及其环境公平性研究

本文首先基于多区域投入产出模型,结合能源驱动的PM_(2.5)排放清单,构建了2017年中国环境拓展的多区域投入产出表。而后,以生产侧与消费侧的双视角测算了2017年我国30个省份贸易中隐含PM_(2.5)排放与增加值的转移特征,并基于排放与增加值的净转移矩阵借助区域环境不公平指数对省际贸易中PM_(2.5)污染排放与经济利益交换的公平性进行测度。结果表明,省际贸易中隐含PM_(2.5)与隐含增加值的转移流向相反,中部与东北等相对欠发达地区是隐含PM_(2.5)的主要流入地,而沿海地区发达省份是隐含增加值的主要流入地。发达省份通过省际贸易既可一定程度上避免PM_(2.5)污染也可获得来自外省(区、市)的经济利益,具有环境与经济的双优势,而部分欠发达省份则是环境与经济双失。区域环境不公平指数的测度结果表明,发达省份与欠发达省份之间存在明显的差值,欠发达地区在省际贸易中面临相对明显的环境不公平挑战。最后,建立了省际贸易污染补偿机制与方案以缓解环境不公平性。

京津冀城市群虚拟水流动格局变化对区域水资源压力的影响

【目的】合理的虚拟水调动是缓解水压力的重要途径,尤其在人口聚集的城市群地区,用水需求激增导致区域缺水问题严重。城市群内部不同地区间的紧密关联有助于促进虚拟水贸易,对优化城市群水资源配置、缓解水资源压力具有重要意义。【方法】采用多区域投入产出法,解析极端缺水的京津冀城市群内外间及其内部的虚拟水流动格局与变化,并揭示其对缓解区域水压力的作用。【结果】结果表明:(1)2012—2017年京津冀城市群与外部地区的虚拟水贸易量先增加后减少,而城市群内部虚拟水自给量却先减少后增加,2015年后京津冀内部虚拟水贸易增强;(2)京津冀城市群内部虚拟水流动格局呈现明显的时空异质性,虚拟水主要由经济相对欠发达的周边城市流入经济相对发达的中心城市(北京市、天津市、石家庄市和廊坊市),且随时间的推移,流动强度和向中心城市的集中程度均不断加强;(3)虚拟水流动明显缓解了京津冀中心城市的水资源压力,其实际水压力指数比虚拟水流动后的假定水压力指数年均下降12.12%,且下降程度逐年增加,但却加重了周边城市的水资源压力。【结论】京津冀城市群虚拟水流动有效缓解了中心城市的缺水压力,但不同城市的产业结构调整、虚拟水流动格局优化仍有很大提升空间。

考虑工作点时变特性的并网变流器全工作区间稳定性分析

现有工程运行数据显示,并网变流器(grid-connected converter,GCC)的动态特性与工作点密切相关。受新能源出力波动、负载投切等外部因素的影响,变流器工作点呈现随机时变特性。因此,分析整个工作区间中所有工作点的系统稳定性具有重要意义。传统阻抗/导纳分析方法可以有效分析GCC运行于特定工作点时的稳定性,但考虑系统所有可能工作点时则需重复分析,工作量大且难度较高。为解决这一难题,提出一种考虑工作点变量的多元建模方法。将工作点变量引入导纳模型,通过控制环路重构,建立GCC的多变量单输入单输出(single input single output,SISO)模型。所提模型直接包含工作点变量,因此可以有效分析变流器全工作区间动态特性。此外,综合考虑变流器最大传输限制和动态特性,提出一种基于安全运行域的稳定性分析方法,以实现多维工作区间中系统稳定性的直观表征。仿真和实验验证了所提多变量SISO模型和基于安全运行域的分析方法的正确性。所提模型和方法在分析电力电子装置运行极限、指导变流器设计和辅助功率器件发挥极限性能等工程场景中具有广泛应用潜力。

中国供给端与消费端重点碳减排省级部门研究

在“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的时代背景下,产业关联中的碳排放问题已成为当前的研究热点。通过在省级层面筛选中国的重点碳排放部门,并实施相应的产业结构调整与优化政策,可以精准高效地实现碳减排的目标。该研究基于中国多地区投入产出模型,采用投入产出法构建了省级产业间的经济与碳排放关联模型,分析了全国范围内碳排放关联较大的产业部门。通过产业关联分析法,探究了产业部门经济与碳排放的影响力系数和感应度系数的变化趋势,并从供给端和消费端分别识别中国重点碳减排省级部门。研究结果如下:(1)在全国层面,在后向关联和前向关联的不同视角下,碳排放关联较大的部门存在差异。具体而言,在供给端下,电力、热力的生产和供应业是碳排放关联最大的部门;在消费端下,建筑业则是碳排放关联最大的部门。(2)2010-2017年期间,电力、热力的生产和供应业作为供给端部门,通过后向关联推动了全国碳排放能力与规模的提升,但对全国经济规模增长的贡献相对有限。建筑业作为消费端部门通过前向关联对拉动全国碳排放的影响显著大于对经济的促进作用。(3)在省级层面,供给端的重点碳减排部门主要集中在河北、山西和内蒙古等省份的电力、热力的生产和供应业,以及新疆的交通运输及仓储业。消费端的重点碳减排部门主要集中在河北、内蒙古、浙江、江西、广西、重庆、四川、云南和陕西的非金属矿物制品业,云南的金属冶炼及压延加工业以及云南和新疆的交通运输及仓储业。最后,该研究基于产业链的供给端和消费端,对中国不同类型的重点碳减排省级部门提出相应建议。

区域间产业关系视角下税收竞争的影响机制--兼论减税降费的溢出效应

税收对国内外经济都有着重要影响。本文基于税收竞争理论,从区域间产业关系的视角探讨减税降费的溢出效应。先构建数理模型,从理论层面分析区域间复杂的产业关系对税收竞争结果的不确定性影响,继而进一步基于多区域投入产出模型,模拟我国减税降费对其他经济体的影响,验证了数理模型的论断。研究发现,在产品内分工模式下,区域间产业互补的税收竞争不再是“损人利己”的恶性竞争,反而实现互利共赢。因此,我国采取减税降费政策不仅有利于本国经济增长,也有利于其他经济体的经济增长。