Eternal Climate Change Patterns and the Causes and Countermeasures of Global Climate Change

It is an objective fact that the weather is unpredictable.Even the famous meteorologist,Academician Chu Ko Chen,has only a partial understanding of the changing laws of wind and rain.Even though ancient people summarized the 24 solar terms by observing the annual activities of the sun for a long time,because they ignored the impact of the activities of the moon on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,the 24 solar terms they summarized often could not accurately predict the change of the Earth’s climate.Therefore,the author studied the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change,finds out the law of the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,and summarizes the eternal climate change pattern determined by the activities of the sun and the moon.In addition,the author also reveals the causes and countermeasures of global warming and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather as well as environmental change.

China’s Recent Progresses in Polar Climate Change and Its Interactions with the Global Climate System

During the recent four decades since 1980,a series of modern climate satellites were launched,allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters,especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain.China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions.Many observations were conducted during this period,accompanied by improved Earth climate models,leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes.Here,we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade.The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate,associated with a rapid decline in sea ice,a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification.The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades,with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss,while tropical-polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions.Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system.The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes.Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification.Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes,as reviewed in this paper.

Critical role of multidimensional biodiversity in contributing to ecosystem sustainability under global change

The 21st century has seen an acceleration of global change,including climate change,elevated carbon dioxide,nitrogen deposition,and land-use intensification,which poses a significant threat to ecosystem functioning.Nev-ertheless,studies on the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning(BEF)have consistently demonstrated that biodiversity enhances ecosystem functioning and its stability,even in variable environmental conditions.These findings potentially indicate the critical role of biodiversity in promoting sustainable provi-sioning of ecosystem functioning under global change.Our paper provides a comprehensive review of current BEF research and the response of BEF to multiple global change factors.We demonstrate that(1)assessing the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning requires consideration of multiple dimensions of diversity,such as diversity across multiple trophic levels(plants,animals,and microbes),multiple facets(taxonomy,functional traits,and phylogeny),and multiple spatial scales(local,regional,and landscape scales).(2)The interaction of multiple global change factors may lead to a greater reduction in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning than a single global change factor.(3)Multidimensional biodiversity regulates the response of ecosystem functioning to global change factors,indicating that high levels of multidimensional biodiversity can mitigate the negative impacts of global change on ecosystem functioning.Overall,we emphasize that recognizing the importance of multidimensional biodiversity is critical for sustaining ecosystem functioning.Therefore,prioritizing conserva-tion efforts to maintain and enhance all dimensions of biodiversity is essential to address the challenges of future global change.

A GRADIENT ANALYSIS & MODELING OF THE NECT FOR GLOBAL CHANGE STUDY

The North East China Transect (NECT) is an exemplary region of landmass running along the line of 43°30′ North Latitude and caught between 112° and 130°30′ East Longtitude, and is being sampled by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) for today’s study on global change. So far, it has already been listed in the first set of IGBP-sponsored transects, becoming a key theatre and "hot spot" for probing terrestrial ecosystems. In terms of biota, the nearly 1,600-kilometre-long tract is located in a mid-latitude zone, featuring a vegetational transition from a temperate timberland of evergreen coniferous forests and broadleaved deciduous forests to a mild-temperate steppe. According to the norms of biome types, it consists of three subzones: meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe in a continuous east-to-west spatial sequence. There are four ecological stations supported by a great number of permanent samples, long-term plots and an enormous build-up of experimental data along

Some Preliminary Results on Pilot Study of Global Change in China

On the basis of existing data and research results the changes of life supporting environment in China in the history are briefly described. The differences between regional climate variations and climate jump are the very important features and phenomena in estimating the trend of environmental evolution in the future. Finally, it is pointed out that sensitive zone is an ideal place to study global change. Many evidences show that the response of environmental elements in the sensitive zones to global change events is very obvious, so that much attention should be paid to the study of sensitive zone.

Global Effect of Climate Change on Seasonal Cycles,Vector Population and Rising Challenges of Communicable Diseases:A Review

This article explains ongoing changes in global climate and their effect on the resurgence of vector and pathogen populations in various parts of the world.Today,major prevailing changes are the elevation of global temperature and accidental torrent rains,floods,droughts,and loss of productivity and food commodities.Due to the increase in water surface area and the longer presence of flood water,the breeding of insect vectors becomes very high;it is responsible for the emergence and re-emergence of so many communicable diseases.Due to the development of resistance to chemicals in insect pests,and pathogens and lack of control measures,communicable zoonotic diseases are remerging with high infectivity and mortality.This condition is becoming more alarming as the climate is favoring pathogen-host interactions and vector populations.Rapid changes seen in meteorology are promoting an unmanageable array of vector-borne infectious diseases,such as malaria,Japanese encephalitis,filarial,dengue,and leishmaniasis.Similarly,due to unhygienic conditions,poor sanitation,and infected ground and surface water outbreak of enteric infections such as cholera,vibriosis,and rotavirus is seen on the rise.In addition,parasitic infection ascariasis,fasciolosis,schistosomiasis,and dysentery cases are increasing.Today climate change is a major issue and challenge that needs timely quick solutions.Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration territorial conflicts,decreasing ecosystem productivity,disease outbreaks,and impelling unequal resource utilization.Rapid climate changes,parasites,pathogens,and vector populations are on the rise,which is making great threats to global health and the environment.This article highlighted the necessity to develop new strategies and control measures to cut down rising vector and pathogen populations in endemic areas.For finding quick solutions educational awareness,technology up-gradation,new vaccines,and safety measures have to be adopted to break the cycle of dreadful communicable diseases shortly.

A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.

Burden of Cirrhosis and Other Chronic Liver Diseases Caused by Specific Etiologies in China, 1990-2016:Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Objective To estimate the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by specific etiologies in China.Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(GBD 2016)were used.We evaluated the burden by analyzing age-sex-province-specific prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted lifeyears(DALYs)of 33 provinces in China.Results From 1990 to 2016,prevalence cases in thousands increased by 73.7%from 6833.3(95%UI:6498.0–7180.6)to 11869.6(95%UI:11274.6–12504.7).Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates per100,000 decreased by 51.2%and 53.3%,respectively.Male and elderly people(aged≥60 years)preponderance were found for prevalence,mortality,and DALYs.The number of prevalence cases,deaths,and DALYs due to hepatitis C virus(HCV)increased by 86.6%,8.7%,and 0.9%,respectively.Also,age-standardized prevalence rates decreased in 31 provinces,but increased in Yunnan and Shandong.The Socio-demographic Index(SDI)values were negatively correlated with age-standardized mortality and DALY rates by provinces in 2016;the correlation coefficients were-0.817 and-0.828,respectively.Conclusion Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases remain a huge health burden in China,with the increase of population and the aging of population.Hepatitis B virus(HBV)remains the leading cause of the health burden in China.

How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?

To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid iferce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And ifnally, crop-speciifc agricultural intensiifcation would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

Global glaciations and atmospheric change at ca.2.3 Ga

This paper compiles lithostratigraphic and geochronological data obtained for the Palaeoproterozoic glacial diamictite-bearing successions,and thereby provides insights into understanding the geological processes causing the Huronian Glaciation Event.The majority of evidence for appearances of this glaciation event can be related to the Kenorland supercontinent breakup,allied to significant atmospheric change,as well as blooms of biogeochemical oxygenic photosynthesis.In this paper,the Huronian Glaciation Event is constrained to have occurred synchronously during 2.29-2.25 Ga,accompanied by dramatic environmental changes characteristic of the Great Oxidation Event which includes the pre- 2.3 Ga hydrosphere oxidation and the post-2.3 Ga atmosphere oxygenation.

Changes in Global Cloud Cover Based on Remote Sensing Data from 2003 to 2012

As is well known,clouds impact the radiative budget,climate change,hydrological processes,and the global carbon,nitrogen and sulfur cycles.To understand the wide-ranging effects of clouds,it is necessary to assess changes in cloud cover at high spatial and temporal resolution.In this study,we calculate global cloud cover during the day and at night using cloud products estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)data.Results indicate that the global mean cloud cover from 2003 to 2012 was 66%.Moreover,global cloud cover increased over this recent decade.Specifically,cloud cover over land areas(especially North America,Antarctica,and Europe)decreased(slope=–0.001,R^2=0.5254),whereas cloud cover over ocean areas(especially the Indian and Pacific Oceans)increased(slope=0.0011,R^2=0.4955).Cloud cover is relatively high between the latitudes of 36°S and 68°S compared to other regions,and cloud cover is lowest over Oceania and Antarctica.The highest rates of increase occurred over Southeast Asia and Oceania,whereas the highest rates of decrease occurred over Antarctica and North America.The global distribution of cloud cover regulates global temperature change,and the trends of these two variables over the 10-year period examined in this study(2003–2012)oppose one another in some regions.These findings are very important for studies of global climate change.

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.

Trend of Salt Lake Changes in the Background of Global Warming and Tactics for Adaptation to the Changes

Salt lakes are a mirror of climatic changes and provide holographic records of environmental changes of lakes. According to a study of geological hazards in typical salt lake areas in China and other regions, the authors explain how geological hazards in salt lake areas are caused by natural agents and how humans can seek benefits, avoid hazards and reduce losses on the premise that they have monitored and mastered the trend of salt lake changes in advance and even can store flood and recharge water in lakes and extract saline resources. The climate in western China is probably turning from warm-dry to warm-moist. The authors analyze the change trend of salt lakes sensu lato (with salinity≥0.3 wt% (NaCl)eq) and salt lakes sensu stricto (with salinity ≥3.5 wt% (NaCl)eq) in China in such climatic conditions and distinguish three types of salt lake areas (i.e. lake water rising type, lake water falling type and lake water rising and unstable type) according to the characteristics of lake water rising and shrinking. In order to conform to the climatic and lake changes in China's salt lake areas, the authors propose to add and improve hydrological and meteorological observation stations and integrate observations with remote sensing monitoring in important salt lake areas and set up multidisciplinary and interdepartmental basic projects to monitor and study recent climatic and environmental changes in salt lake areas of western China. Moreover, it is necessary to build additional flood-control and drought-preventing water conservancy facilities in key salt lake areas and work out measures for ecological protection in salt lake areas. Full consideration should be given to the influence of flooding when building saltfields and implementing capital projects.

From global change to Future Earth in China

Here we review the activities and recent accomplishments resulting from the global change and Future Earth initiative studies in China.As a new international research initiative,Future Earth will develop comprehensive knowledge for responding to global change risks and create transformative opportunities toward future global sustainability.The Chinese National Committee for Future Earth,the consultation project Develop ‘Future Earth in China' for Promoting Social Sustainability and the cooperative international project Co-design of Implementation Plan for Future Earth in China were developed to help foster a culture of sustainability and conservation in China.To help promote the sustainability movement in China,Chinese scientists from both the natural and social sciences,policymakers,and stakeholders are encouraged to join the future activities following the Future Earth model co-design,co-produce,and co-delivery.

Projected Changes in Eurasian and Arctic Summer Cyclones under Global Warming in the Bergen Climate Model

Using the coupled ocean-atmosphere Bergen Climate Model,and a Lagrangian vorticity-based cyclone tracking method,the authors investigate current climate summer cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and their change by the end of the 21st century,with a focus on Northern Eurasia and the Arctic.The two scenarios A1B and A2 for increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are considered.In the model projections,the total number of cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere is reduced by about 3% 4%,but the Arctic Ocean and adjacent coastal re-gions harbour slightly more and slightly stronger summer storms,compared to the model current climate.This in-crease occurs in conjunction with an increase in the high-latitude zonal winds and in the meridional tempera-ture gradient between the warming land and the ocean across Northern Eurasia.Deficiencies in climate model representations of the summer storm tracks at high lati-tudes are also outlined,and the need for further model inter-comparison studies is emphasized.

Fire cycle of the Canada's boreal region and its potential response to global change

Interactions of fire cycle and plant species＇ reproductive characteristics could determine vegetation distribution pattern of a landscape. In Canada＇s boreal region, fire cycles before the Little Ice Age （c. 1850s） ranged from 30-130 years and 25-234 years afterwards until the settlement period （c. 1930s） when longer fire cycles occurred in response to climatic change and human interference. Analysis indicated that fire cycles were correlated with growing season （April-October） temperature and precipitation departure from the 1961-1990 normal, varying by regions. Assuming that wildfires will respond to future warming similar to the manner during the past century, an assessment using climatic change scenarios CGCMI, CGCM2 and HadCM2 indicates fire cycles would divert to a range of 80-140 years in the west taiga shield, more than 700 years for the east boreal shield and east taiga shield, and 300-400 years for the boreal plains in 2050.

The withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and its impact on global climate change governance

The global community has prepared for the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement since Donald Trump was elected as the president of the U.S. However, Trump's formal declaration of withdrawal still caused worldwide reaction. Trump will use the withdrawal to build his political reputation and to renegotiate the Paris Agreement despite its negative effects on the political credibility, international relationships, and potential long-term economic growth of the U.S. In general, the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement will not change the development of low-carbon technologies and the transformation trend of the global climate governance regime. However, the long-term goals and international cooperation on climate change will be affected by budget cuts in American climate change research and the cancelation of donations from the multilateral environmental fund of the U.S. If the Paris Agreement is renegotiated, the common but differentiated principle of responsibility of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be challenged again. Nevertheless, climate change governance remains a main theme of future sustainable development. Instead of national governments, local governments and non-governmental organizations will develop strategies for technical innovation and emphasize pragmatic cooperation, thus expanding their roles in climate change governance. The capacity building on climate change research and public awareness should be enhanced as a long-term objective of global climate change governance.

Global vegetation change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years

Vegetation cover change is critical for understanding impacts and responses of vegetation to climate change. A study found that vegetation in the regions between 45°N-70°N was increasing using normalized difference vegetation index( NDVI) from 1981 to 1991 ten years ago. The global vegetation growth has changed because of climate change in recent twelve years( 2001- 2012). After thorough analysis based on satellite data,it is found that it is evident that the global vegetation changed( NDVI) little,and it is increasing slightly in Northern hemisphere while it is decreasing slightly in Southern Hemisphere. For different latitudes,vegetation is increasing 0.17% every year from 60°N to 70 °N( R^2= 0.47,P > 0.013),while the vegetation is decreasing 0.11% every year from 10°N to 10° S( R^2= 0.54,P > 0.004). For different continents,the vegetation in South America is decreasing 0.16% every year( R^2= 0.78,P > 0.0001) and it is increasing 0.05% every year in Asia( R^2= 0.28,P > 0.072) and 0.25% every year in Oceania( R^2= 0.24,P > 0.1). The analysis of global vegetation in different seasons indicates that spatial distribution of global temperature and water vapor will affect the spatial distribution of vegetation,in turn,the spatial distribution of vegetation will also regulate the global temperature and water vapor spatial distribution at large scale. The growth and distribution of vegetation are mainly caused by the orbit of the celestial bodies,and a big data model based on gravitational-magmatic change with the solar or the galactic system as its center is proposed to be built for analyzing how the earth's orbit position in the solar and galaxy system affects spatial-temporal variations of global vegetation and temperature at large scale. These findings promise a holistic understanding of the global climate change and potential underlying mechanisms.

Global pattern and change of cropland soil organic carbon during 1901-2010: Roles of climate, atmospheric chemistry, land use and management

Soil organic carbon(SOC)in croplands is a key property of soil quality for ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability,and also plays a central role in the global carbon(C)budget.When managed sustainably,soils may play a critical role in mitigating climate change by sequestering C and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.However,the magnitude and spatio-temporal patterns of global cropland SOC are far from well constrained due to high land surface heterogeneity,complicated mechanisms,and multiple influencing factors.Here,we use a process-based agroecosystem model(DLEM-Ag)in combination with diverse spatially-explicit gridded environmental data to quantify the long-term trend of SOC storage in global cropland area during 1901-2010 and identify the relative impacts of climate change,elevated CO2,nitrogen deposition,land cover change,and land management practices such as nitrogen fertilizer use and irrigation.Model results show that the total SOC and SOC density in the 2000s increased by 125%and 48.8%,respectively,compared to the early 20th century.This SOC increase was primarily attributed to cropland expansion and nitrogen fertilizer use.Factorial analysis suggests that climate change reduced approximately 3.2%(or 2,166 Tg C)of the total SOC over the past 110 years.Our results indicate that croplands have a large potential to sequester C through implementing better land use management practices,which may partially offset SOC loss caused by climate change.

Climate Change of 4℃ Global Warming above Pre-industrial Levels

Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4？C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4？C global warming will occur is 2084.Based on the median results of models that project a 4？C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5？C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.