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The Theoretical and Practical Foundations of Strong Earthquake Predictability 被引量:1
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作者 Oleg Elshin Andrew A. Tronin 《Open Journal of Earthquake Research》 2021年第2期17-29,共13页
Earthquakes and the tsunamis they produce are the world’s most devastating natural disasters, affecting more than 100 countries. Not surprisingly, the problem of earthquake prediction has occupied scientists’ minds ... Earthquakes and the tsunamis they produce are the world’s most devastating natural disasters, affecting more than 100 countries. Not surprisingly, the problem of earthquake prediction has occupied scientists’ minds for more than two thousand years. This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on identifying stressed areas that begin to behave abnormally before strong events, with the size of these areas corres</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ponding to Dobrovolsky’s formula. We make predictions by combining</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> knowledge from many different disciplines: physics, geophysics, seismology, geology, and earth science, among others. An integrated approach is used to identify anomalies and make predictions, including satellite remote sensing techniques and data from ground-based instruments. Terabytes of information are currently processed every day with many different multi-parametric prediction systems applied thereto. Alerts are issued if anomalies are confirmed by a few different systems. It has been found that geophysical patterns of earthquake preparation and stress accumulation are similar for all key seismic regions. The same earthquake prediction methodologies and systems have been successfully applied in global practice since 2013, with the technology successfully used to retrospectively test against more than 700 strong and major earthquakes since 1970. In other words, the earthquake prediction problem has largely been solved. Throughout 2017-2021, results were presented to more than 160 professors from 63 countries. 展开更多
关键词 global earthquake Prediction earthquakes GEOPHYSICS Big Data Remote Sensing Seismic Analysis Terra Seismic Future Technologies
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Three-dimensional crustal deformation before and after the Wenchuan earthquake in Guanzhong and adjacent regions 被引量:1
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作者 Hu Yaxuan Qin Shanlan Hao Ming 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 2015年第1期16-24,共9页
The recent plethora of GPS observations compensates for the 20-year-old lack in vertical displacement data for the Guanzhong region. The 2001—2007 three-dimensional(3D) crustal deformation data suggest regional mov... The recent plethora of GPS observations compensates for the 20-year-old lack in vertical displacement data for the Guanzhong region. The 2001—2007 three-dimensional(3D) crustal deformation data suggest regional movement with a horizontal velocity of 3—7 mm/a,predominantly from SSE in the west to SE in the east, and vertical inherited movement with velocity of -7 mm/a to 4 mm/a. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the GPS data suggest that the effect of the earthquake on the regional deformation is greater in the west than the east.The horizontal displacement increased during 2007—2008; however, the reverse was observed in 2008—2009. The vertical displacement in the western part of the region increased in 2008 and has been gradually returning to normal since 2009; however, in the eastern part,the effect of the earthquake remains. 展开更多
关键词 Horizontal movement Vertical movement Guanzhong area Wenchuan earthquake Geodynamics GPS(global Position System)
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