Progress in the Development and Application of Climate Ocean Models and Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Models in China

A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.

Different El Niño Flavors and Associated Atmospheric Teleconnections as Simulated in a Hybrid Coupled Model

A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.

Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models

The Pacific subtropical cells(STCs)are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics,and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability.The variability of STCs under global warming is investigated using multimodal outputs from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)and ocean reanalysis products.Firstly,the volume transport diagnostic analysis is employed to evaluate how coupled models and ocean reanalysis products reproduce interior STC transport.The variation of heat transport by the interior STC under the high-emissions warming scenarios is also analyzed.The results show that the multimodal-mean linear trends of the interior STC transport along 9°S and 9°N are-0.02 Sv/a and 0.04 Sv/a under global warming,respectively,which is mainly due to the combined effect of the strengthened upper oceanic stratification and the weakening of wind field.There is a compensation relationship between the interior STC and the western boundary transport in the future climate,and the compensation relationship of 9°S is more significant than that of 9°N.In addition,compared with ocean reanalysis products,the coupled models tend to underestimate the variability of the interior STC transport convergence,and thus may lose some sea surface temperature(SST)driving force,which may be the reason for the low STC-SST correlation simulated by the model.The future scenario simulation shows that the heat transport of interior STC is weakened under global warming,with a general agreement across models.

A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.

Primary Reasoning behind the Double ITCZ Phenomenon in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model

This paper investigates the processes behind the double ITCZ phenomenon, a common problem in Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (CGCMs), using a CGCM—FGCM-0 (Flexible General Circulation Model, version 0). The double ITCZ mode develops rapidly during the ?rst two years of the integration and becomes a perennial phenomenon afterwards in the model. By way of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) for SST, sea surface pressure, and sea surface wind, some air-sea interactions are analyzed. These interactions prompt the anomalous signals that appear at the beginning of the coupling to develop rapidly. There are two possible reasons, proved by sensitivity experiments: (1) the overestimated east-west gradient of SST in the equatorial Paci?c in the ocean spin-up process, and (2) the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast in CCM3 (the Community Climate Model, Version Three). The overestimated east-west gradient of SST brings the anomalous equatorial easterly. The anomalous easterly, a?ected by the Coriolis force in the Southern Hemisphere, turns into an anomalous westerly in a broad area south of the equator and is enhanced by atmospheric anomalous circulation due to the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast simulated by CCM3. The anomalous westerly leads to anomalous warm advection that makes the SST warm in the southeast Paci?c. The double ITCZ phenomenon in the CGCM is a result of a series of nonlocal and nonlinear adjustment processes in the coupled system, which can be traced to the uncoupled models, oceanic component, and atmospheric component. The zonal gradient of the equatorial SST is too large in the ocean component and the amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast is too low in the atmosphere component.

The Interannual Variability of Climate in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modelof the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that bythe corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 yearintegrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAPAGCM, i.e., no serious 'climate drift' occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM andCGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM ismuch greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and NorthAtlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not existin the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two typest one is the variation of the annual mean,another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type ofvariability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannualvariability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly （NCEPWSA） and FSU wind stress anomaly （FSUWSA） is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model （ZC coupled model） with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 E1 Nino 6 to 8 months ahead, further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 E1 Nino event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.

A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF LATENT HEAT PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME ON PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSO WITH A SIMPLE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL

This study revises Weare＇s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare＇s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak＇s scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis of wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak＇s scheme and the revised Weare＇s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use Zebiak＇s scheme and the revised Weare＇s scheme are referred to as the ZCWoand ZCWN coupled models, respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0 and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include： （1） The evolution of heat, meridional wind and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; （2） The prediction skill of the Nino3 index from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0 coupled model; （3） The analysis of E1 Nino events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Nifia events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting E1 Nino.

A Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and ENSO Prediction Study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Influence of the North American Dipole on ENSO onset as simulated by a coupled ocean-Atmosphere model

The North American Dipole(NAD)is a north-south seesaw pattern of sea level pressure anomalies over the western tropical North Atlantic and northeastern North America.Previous observational studies have demonstrated that the NAD can affect the outbreak of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.The present study analyzed the NAD-ENSO relationship as simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model-namely,the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,gridpoint version 2(FGOALS-g2).Results indicated that the model can replicate a distinct dipole comprised of a low over northeastern North America and a high over the western tropical North Atlantic,which is the signature feature of the NAD.Further analysis verified that the winter NAD can initiate the central equatorial Pacific warming in the subsequent winter by effectively forcing an anticyclonic flow and sea surface temperature(SST)warming over the northeastern subtropical Pacific(NESP)during late winter or early spring.In addition,the probability of an El Niño event was increased by a factor of 1.8 in the assimilation experiment with the NAD.By comparison,the winter Northern Atlantic Oscillation had no significant impact on the occurrence of ENSO a year later owing to its failure to induce the SST and surface wind anomalies over the NESP.

A Simple Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

The quasi-geostrophic atmospheric and oceanic equations of momentum and thermodynamics with dissipation factors are used to create a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model describing the large-scale shallow-water motion. We discuss the ocean-atmosphere coupling effect in mid-high and low latitudes separately and analyze characteristics of which the oscillatory periods of coupled low-frequency modes (ocean mode) vary with the coupling frequency and latitudinal number. This can interpret the correlation between low-frequency oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interaction. Then from the dispersion curves of atmosphere and ocean, we reveal effect of the coupling strength on the propagation of Rossby waves. The convection mechanism between the two modes is also discussed in view of the slowly varying wave train.The results show that Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction play a stable rule in oceanic Rossby waves, the period of coupled low-frequency mode grows with the increment of the coupling frequency. The larger the latitudinal number is, the more rapidly it grows. When the coupling frequency tends to critical value, the oceanic Rossby waves become static. When the ocean-atmosphere coupling strength grows to some degree, the propagation of oceanic Rossby waves will become opposite to its original direction. One part of the oceanic Rossby waves is converted into atmospheric Rossby waves, the energy conversion coefficient is also solved out.

Global simulation of plasma series resonance effect in radio frequency capacitively coupled Ar/O_(2) plasma

Radio frequency capacitively coupled plasmas(RF CCPs)play a pivotal role in various applications in etching and deposition processes on a microscopic scale in semiconductor manufacturing.In the discharge process,the plasma series resonance(PSR)effect is easily observed in electrically asymmetric and geometrically asymmetric discharges,which could largely influence the power absorption,ionization rate,etc.In this work,the PSR effect arising from geometrically and electrically asymmetric discharge in argon-oxygen mixture gas is mainly investigated by using a plasma equivalent circuit model coupled with a global model.At relatively low pressures,as Ar content(α)increases,the inductance of the bulk is weakened,which leads to a more obvious PSR phenomenon and a higher resonance frequency(ω_(psr)).When the Ar content is fixed,varying the pressure and gap distance could also have different effects on the PSR effect.With the increase of the pressure,the PSR frequency shifts towards the higher order,but in the case of much higher pressure,the PSR oscillation would be strongly damped by frequent electron-neutral collisions.With the increase of the gap distance,the PSR frequency becomes lower.In addition,electrically asymmetric waveforms applied to a geometrically asymmetric chamber may weaken or enhance the asymmetry of the discharge and regulate the PSR effect.In this work,the Ar/O_(2) electronegative mixture gas is introduced in a capacitive discharge to study the PSR effect under geometric asymmetry effect and electrical asymmetry effect,which can provide necessary guidance in laboratory research and current applications.

A Coupled General Circulation Model for the Tropical Pacific Ocean and Global Atmosphere

On the basis of Zeng's theorehcal design, a coupled general circulation model(CGCM) is develO￣ with itscharacteristics different from other CGCMs such as the unified vertical coordinates and subtraction of the standard stratification for both atmosphere and ocean, available energy consideration,and so on.The oceanic comPOnent is a free surface tropical Pacific Ocean GCM betWeen 30W and 30'S with horizontal grid spacing of ic in latitude and 2°in longitude,and with 14 vertical layers.The atmospheric component is a global GCM with low-resolution of 4°in lahtude and 5°in longitude,and tWo layers of equal mass in the verhcal between the surfaCe and 200 hFa.The atmospheric GCM includes comprehensive physical processes.The coupled model is subjected to seasonally-varying cycle.Several coupling experiments,ranging from straight forward coupling without flux correction to one with flux correchon,and to so-called predictor-corrector monthly coupling(PCMC),are conducted tO show the esistence and final controlling of the climate drift in the coupled system.After removing the climate drift with the PCMC SCheme,the coupled model is integrated for more than twenty years.The results show reasonable simulations of the anneal mean and its seasollal cycle of the atmospheric and￣ante circulahon.The model also ProduCeS the coherent intermnual variations of the climate system, manifesting the observed EI Nifio/Southern OSCillation(ENSO).

Atmospheric and oceanic responses to Super Typhoon Mangkhut in the South China Sea:a coupled CROCO-WRF simulation

The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense disturbance caused by typhoons.However,these responses have not been thoroughly investigated owing to the complicated marine environment.According to the satellite data,the SCS Basin was observed to have a strong sea surface temperature(SST)response to Typhoon Mangkhut,resulting in widespread SST cooling.A coupled model was used to investigate the atmospheric and oceanic responses to Typhoon Mangkhut.Best-track data,satellite SST,and ARGO measurements show that the coupled WRF-CROCO simulation displays better track,intensity,SST,temperature,and salinity profiles than those of the WRF-only simulation.Results show that the typhoon induced rightward intensifications in wind speed,ocean current,and SST.The following are some remarkable atmosphere and ocean responses:(1)the SST below the inner-core region is cooled by 1℃,resulting in a 37%-44%decrease in wet enthalpy,and the central pressure is increased by~9 hPa.Therefore,the changes in SST below the innercore region of the SCS Basin have a significant impact on air-sea fluxes under high-wind conditions;(2)the ocean boundary layer analysis shows that near-inertial oscillations on the right side of the typhoon track and a strong inertial current up to~2.28 m/s in the upper ocean were observed,which resonated with the local wind and flow field on the right side and induced strong SST cooling;(3)a decrease in SST decreased the moist static energy of the typhoon boundary layer,thereby weakening the typhoon’s intensity.The difference in equivalent potential temperature and sea surface pressure have a good correlation,indicating that the influence of moist static energy on typhoon intensity cannot be overlooked.

A Hybrid Coupled Model for the Pacific Ocean–Atmosphere System.Part I: Description and Basic Performance

A hybrid coupled model （HCM） is constructed for El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-related modeling studies over almost the entire Pacific basin.An ocean general circulation model is coupled to a statistical atmospheric model for interannual wind stress anomalies to represent their dominant coupling with sea surface temperatures.In addition,various relevant forcing and feedback processes exist in the region and can affect ENSO in a significant way; their effects are simply represented using historical data and are incorporated into the HCM,including stochastic forcing of atmospheric winds,and feedbacks associated with freshwater flux,ocean biology-induced heating （OBH）,and tropical instability waves （TIWs）.In addition to its computational efficiency,the advantages of making use of such an HCM enable these related forcing and feedback processes to be represented individually or collectively,allowing their modulating effects on ENSO to be examined in a clean and clear way.In this paper,examples are given to illustrate the ability of the HCM to depict the mean ocean state,the circulation pathways connecting the subtropics and tropics in the western Pacific,and interannual variability associated with ENSO.As satellite data are taken to parameterize processes that are not explicitly represented in the HCM,this work also demonstrates an innovative method of using remotely sensed data for climate modeling.Further model applications related with ENSO modulations by extratropical influences and by various forcings and feedbacks will be presented in Part Ⅱ of this study.

Projected Regional 1.50℃and 2.00℃Warming Threshold-crossing Time Worldwide Using the CMIP6 Models

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions.

A Numerical Study of a TOGA-COARE Squall-Line Using a Coupled Mesoscale Atmosphere-Ocean Model

An atmosphere-ocean coupled mesoscale modeling system is developed and used to investigate the interactions between a squall line and the upper ocean observed over the western Paci?c warm pool during the Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean and Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE). The modeling system is developed by coupling the Advanced Regional Prediction Sys- tem (ARPS) to the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) through precipitation and two-way exchanges of mo- mentum, heat, and moisture across the air-sea interface. The results indicate that the interaction between the squall-line and the upper ocean produced noticeable di?erences in the sensible and latent heat ?uxes, as compared to the uncoupled cases. Precipitation, which is often ignored in air-sea heat ?ux estimates, played a major role in the coupling between the mesoscale convective system and the ocean. Precipitation a?ected the air-sea interaction through both freshwater ?ux and sensible heat ?ux. The former led to the formation of a thin stable ocean layer underneath and behind the precipitating atmospheric convection. The presence of this stable layer resulted in a more signi?cant convection-induced sea surface temperature (SST) change in and behind the precipitation zone. However, convection-induced SST changes do not seem to play an important role in the intsensi?cation of the existing convective system that resulted in the SST change, as the convection quickly moved away from the region of original SST response.

A GLOBAL COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL OF SHALLOW WATER WAVE AND ITS NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS

A global coupled air-sea model of shallow water wave is developed based on coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics.The coupling is realized through the air-sea interaction process that the atmosphere acts on the ocean by wind stress and the ocean acts on the atmosphere with heating proportional to sea surface temperature (SST)anomaly.The equation is harotropic primitive one.Response experiments of coupling system are also carried out SSTA in two categories of intensities.Compared with the results of AGCM simulation ex- periment in which only the dynamic change of air system is considered,it demonstrates that the air-sea interaction between the tropical ocean and the global atmosphere plays a very important role in the evolution of climate system.The results of numerical simulation show that it is encouraging.

Vector radiative transfer numerical model of coupled ocean-atmosphere system using matrix-operator method

A vector radiative transfer numerical model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is developed based on the matrix-operator method, which is named PCOART. Using the Fourier analysis, the vector radiative transfer equation (VRTE) is separated into a set of equations depending only on the observa-tion zenith angle. Using the Gaussian-Quadrature method, VRTE is finally transferred into the matrix equation solved by the adding-doubling method. According to the reflective and refractive properties of the ocean-atmosphere interface, the vector radiative transfer numerical model of the ocean and at-mosphere is coupled in PCOART. Compared with the exact Rayleigh scattering look-up tables of MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), it is shown that PCOART is an exactly numerical model, and the processing methods of the multi-scattering and polarization are correct. Also, validated with the standard problems of the radiative transfer in water, it is shown that PCOART can be used to calculate the underwater radiative transfer problems. Therefore, PCOART is a useful tool for exactly calculating the vector radiative transfer of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which can be used to study the polarization properties of the radiance in the whole ocean-atmosphere system and the remote sensing of the atmosphere and ocean.

A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.