El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

Changes in the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation under Global Warming in CMIP6 Models

Changes in the activities of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation(BSISO)at the end of 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario are assessed by adopting 17 CMIP6 models and the weak-temperature-gradient assumption.Results show that the intraseasonal variations become more structured.The BSISO-related precipitation anomaly shows a larger zonal scale and propagates further northward.However,there is no broad agreement among models on the changes in the eastward and northward propagation speeds and the frequency of individual phases.In the western North Pacific(WNP),the BSISO precipitation variance is significantly increased,at 4.62%K^(−1),due to the significantly increased efficiency of vertical moisture transport per unit of BSISO apparent heating.The vertical velocity variance is significantly decreased,at−3.51%K^(−1),in the middle troposphere,due to the significantly increased mean-state static stability.Changes in the lower-level zonal wind variance are relatively complex,with a significant increase stretching from the northwestern to southeastern WNP,but the opposite in other regions.This is probably due to the combined impacts of the northeastward shift of the BSISO signals and the reduced BSISO vertical velocity variance under global warming.Changes in strong and normal BSISO events in the WNP are also compared.They show same-signed changes in precipitation and large-scale circulation anomalies but opposite changes in the vertical velocity anomalies.This is probably because the precipitation anomaly of strong(normal)events changes at a rate much larger(smaller)than that of the meanstate static stability,causing enhanced(reduced)vertical motion.

Increased population exposures to extreme precipitation in Central Asia under 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming scenarios

The increase in extreme precipitation(EP)may pose a serious threat to the health and safety of population in arid and semi-arid regions.The current research on the impact of EP on population in Central Asia(CA)is insufficient and there is an urgent need for a comprehensive assessment.Hence,we opted for precipitation and temperature data under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)from ten Global Climate Models(GCMs),which were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6).By integrating population data in 2020 and 2050(SSP2 and SSP5),we investigated the future changes in EP and population exposure in CA under 1.5℃and 2℃global warming scenarios(GWSs).Our analysis indicates that EP in CA is projected to increase with global warming.Under the SSP5-8.5,the maximum daily precipitation(Rx1day)exhibits an average response rate to global warming of 3.58%/K(1.99-4.06%/K).With rising temperatures,an increasing number of areas and populations in CA will be impacted by EP,especially in the Fergana valley.Approximately 25%of the population(land area)in CA is exposed to Rx1day with increases of more than 8.31%(9.32%)under 1.5℃GWS and 14.18%(13.25%)under 2℃GWS.Controlling temperature rise can be effective in reducing population exposures to EP.For instance,limiting the temperature increase to 1.5℃instead of 2℃results in a 2.79%(1.75%-4.59%)reduction in population exposure to Rx1day.Finally,we found that climate change serves as the predominant factor influencing the population exposure to EP,while the role of population redistribution,although relatively minor,should not be disregarded.Particularly for prolonged drought,the role of population redistribution manifests negatively.

Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models

The Pacific subtropical cells(STCs)are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics,and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability.The variability of STCs under global warming is investigated using multimodal outputs from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)and ocean reanalysis products.Firstly,the volume transport diagnostic analysis is employed to evaluate how coupled models and ocean reanalysis products reproduce interior STC transport.The variation of heat transport by the interior STC under the high-emissions warming scenarios is also analyzed.The results show that the multimodal-mean linear trends of the interior STC transport along 9°S and 9°N are-0.02 Sv/a and 0.04 Sv/a under global warming,respectively,which is mainly due to the combined effect of the strengthened upper oceanic stratification and the weakening of wind field.There is a compensation relationship between the interior STC and the western boundary transport in the future climate,and the compensation relationship of 9°S is more significant than that of 9°N.In addition,compared with ocean reanalysis products,the coupled models tend to underestimate the variability of the interior STC transport convergence,and thus may lose some sea surface temperature(SST)driving force,which may be the reason for the low STC-SST correlation simulated by the model.The future scenario simulation shows that the heat transport of interior STC is weakened under global warming,with a general agreement across models.

Bad News—The Dominant Causes of the Earth’s Global Warming Are Processes on the Sun, and Humanity Can Do Nothing or Little to Stop It?

Arguments that global warming in the Earth’s atmosphere of the last 70 years is partially or entirely caused by changes in the solar magnetic field are presented in the work. Global warming is probably a consequence of ionizing radiation emitted from the Sun mainly in the “rise” phase of solar activity. The ionizing radiation is positively charged particles with high energy. They penetrate deep into the Earth’s atmosphere, creating increased content of ions serving as condensation nuclei. The condensation nuclei increase cloudiness in the lower atmosphere and lower the surface air temperature. When solar activity decreases as observed in the last 70 years, the reverse process occurs— cloud cover decreases, more solar electromagnetic radiation reaches the earth’s surface and increases the temperature. An additional argument for the presence of high-energy radiation that penetrates deeply into the Earth’s atmosphere and even reaches the Earth’s surface is the high statistically significant correlation between the fluxes of such radiation recorded by GOES series satellites in a geostationary orbit (36,000 km above the Earth’s surface) and the human mortality from deadliest diseases.

Global Warming in Japanese Cities from 1960 to 2019 Using Machine Learning

In this study, we investigated the variations in warming between Japanese cities for 1960-1989, and 1990-2019 using principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering. The precipitation and sunshine hours exhibited opposite tendencies in the PCA results. It was found that 1960M and 1990M had a correlation (r = 0.51). The 1960M and 1990M are the mean temperature anomalies in Japanese cities for 1960-1989 and 1990-2019, respectively. There was a strong correlation between temperature and precipitation (r = 0.62). There was an inverse correlation between 1960M and sunshine hours (r = −0.25), but a correlation between 1990M and sunshine hours (r = 0.11). Sunshine hours had less effect on the 1960M but more impact on the 1990M. The k-means clustering for 1960M and 1990M can be classified into four types: high 1960M and high 1990M, which indicates that global warming is progressing rapidly (Sapporo, Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, Fukuoka, Nagasaki), low 1960M and low 1990M, global warming is progressing slowly (Nemuro, Ishinomaki, Yamagata, Niigata, Fushiki, Nagano, Karuizawa, Mito, Suwa, Iida, Hamada, Miyazaki, Naha), low 1960M and high 1990M, global warming has accelerated since 1990 (Utsunomiya, Kofu, Okayama, Hiroshima), and normal 1960M and normal 1990M, the rate of warming is normal among the 38 cities (Asahikawa, Aomori, Akita, Kanazawa, Maebashi, Matsumoto, Yokohama, Gifu, Nagoya, Hamamatsu, Kochi, Kagoshima). Higher annual temperatures were correlated with higher annual precipitation according to the k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation. Two of the four categories consisted of places with high annual temperatures and high precipitation (Fushiki, Kanazawa, Kochi, Miyazaki, Kagoshima, Naha, Ishigakijima), and places with low annual temperatures and low precipitation (Asahikawa, Nemuro, Sapporo, Karuizawa).

Effects of Anthropogenic CO2 and Thermally-Induced CO2 on Global Warming

Changes in CO2 and temperature are correlated, but it is difficult to observe which is the cause and which is the effect. The release of CO2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere depends on the atmospheric temperature. However, examining the relationship between changes in CO2 caused by other phenomena and temperature is difficult. Studies of soil respiration (Rs) since the late 20th century have shown that CO2 emissions from soil respiration (Rs) are overwhelmingly greater than CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. This is also noted in the IPCC carbon budget assessment. In this paper, the dependences of Rs on temperature, time, latitude, precipitation, seasons, etc., were investigated using the latest NASA database. The changes in temperature and Rs correlated well. There is also a good correlation between Rs and CO2 generation. Therefore, an increase in temperature results in an increase in CO2. On the other hand, there is no evidence other than model calculations that an increase in anthropogenic CO2 is mainly linked to a rise in temperature. The idea that global warming is caused by anthropogenic CO2 production is still a hypothesis. For these reasons, the relationship between global warming and anthropogenic CO2 should be reconsidered based on physical evidence without preconceptions. .

The Sword of Damocles behind the Curtain of the Earth’s Global Warming: A Review

The “mainstream” climatology (MSC)—i.e. which includes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) community—considers the present day massive release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as the main cause of the current global warming trend. The main inference from this stance is that the increase in temperature must occur after the release of greenhouse gases originating from the anthropic activities. However, no scientific evidence has been provided for this basic notion. Earth paleoclimatic records document the antecedence of temperature over CO2 levels. For the past 65 Ma, the temperature parameter has controlled the subsequent increase in CO2. This includes the three rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients at 55 Ma, 34 Ma, and 23 Ma REF _Ref159913672 \r \h \* MERGEFORMAT [1]. The simple fact of their existence points to the potential for highly nonlinear responses in climate forcing. Whatever these shifts and transients are, CO2 remains a second order parameter in their evolution through time. Confronted with the past, a suitable response must therefore be given to the unresolved question of whether the CO2 trends precede the temperature trends in the current period, or not. The assertion that the current global warming is anthropogenic in origin implicitly presupposes a change of paradigm, with the consequence (the increase in CO2 levels) that occurred in Earth’s past being positioned as the cause of the warming for its present day climatic evolution. The compulsory assumption regarding the antecedence of CO2 levels over the temperature trends is associated with the haziness of the methodological framework—i.e. the paradigm—and tightens the research fields on the likely origins of global warming. The possible involvement of an “aberrant” natural event, hidden behind the massive release of greenhouse gases, has not been considered by the MSC.

Global Piecewise Analysis of HIV Model with Bi-Infectious Categories under Ordinary Derivative and Non-Singular Operator with Neural Network Approach

This study directs the discussion of HIV disease with a novel kind of complex dynamical generalized and piecewise operator in the sense of classical and Atangana Baleanu(AB)derivatives having arbitrary order.The HIV infection model has a susceptible class,a recovered class,along with a case of infection divided into three sub-different levels or categories and the recovered class.The total time interval is converted into two,which are further investigated for ordinary and fractional order operators of the AB derivative,respectively.The proposed model is tested separately for unique solutions and existence on bi intervals.The numerical solution of the proposed model is treated by the piece-wise numerical iterative scheme of Newtons Polynomial.The proposed method is established for piece-wise derivatives under natural order and non-singular Mittag-Leffler Law.The cross-over or bending characteristics in the dynamical system of HIV are easily examined by the aspect of this research having a memory effect for controlling the said disease.This study uses the neural network(NN)technique to obtain a better set of weights with low residual errors,and the epochs number is considered 1000.The obtained figures represent the approximate solution and absolute error which are tested with NN to train the data accurately.

Global transplantation:Lessons from organ transplantation organizations worldwide

Although national transplant organizations share common visions and goals,the creation of a unified global organization remains impractical.Differences in ethnicity,culture,religion,and education shape local practices and infrastructure,making the establishment of a single global entity unfeasible.Even with these social disparities aside,logistical factors such as time and distance between organ procurement and transplantation sites pose significant challenges.While technological advancements have extended organ preservation times,they have yet to support the demands of transcontinental transplantations effectively.This review presents a comparative analysis of the structures,operational frameworks,policies,and legislation governing various transplant organizations around the world.Key differences pertain to the administration of these organizations,trends in organ donation,and organ allocation policies,which reflect the financial,cultural,and religious diversity across different regions.While a global transplant organization may be out of reach,agreeing on best practices for the benefit of patients is essential.

Impacts of global warming on marine zooplankton

Global warming has been being a serious issue since 1980, and it impacts environment and biosphere. Here, we reviewed the physiological and ecological responses of marine zooplankton which is an important component of biosphere to the global warming. Much research on physiological changes in response to different temperature is given to discuss this issue. Furthermore, we focused on ecological changes of zooplankton to global warming and several indices such as abundance, biomass, biodiversity and biogeographic boundary are enumerated. Phenological changes of zooplankton were presented, followed by the prospects of this subject, viz. observing more functional groups, more concerning on zooplankton in tropical region and investigation on a species-level zooplankton system.

Simulation of Pacific Ocean Circulations Based on Global Warming from 1960 to 1999

The Pacific Ocean circulations were simulated based on the global warming from 1960 to 1999 by using the Non-Boussinesq POP model and the data of wind stress and temperature at 1 000 hPa from the NCEP. The results show that the circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean was weakening during the past 40 years. The heat transported to the tropical western Pacific Ocean coast by the north equatorial current and the heat transported to middle and high latitudes in the southem hemisphere by the south equatorial current decreased with time due to the global warming, while the heat transported to middle and high latitudes in the northern hemisphere by the north equatorial current increased with time due to the global warming.

The Fossil-Fuels and the Global Warming

The purpose of this paper is to present a simple way to approximate the dependence of the global mean air temperature at Earth＇s surface on atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. Current discussions include energy aspects of the greenhouse effect and the global warming. The starting point for the research are laws of thermodynamics, energy equilibrium and absorption and emission property of the atmosphere. According to the calculations, the natural and the anthropogenic changes effect the atmosphere. By the year 2100 the CO2 concentration will be doubled in comparison with the value of the pre-industrial ages. The doubled CO2 concentration will mean a temperature change about 1 ℃-1.5 ℃.

Response of Vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to Global Warming

Using satellite-observed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） dada and station-observed surface air temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere （NH）, we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of vegetation variations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their correlations with global warming from 1982 to 2002. It is found that the late spring and early summer （May-June） are the months with the strongest responses of vegetation to global warming. Based on the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function （REOF） method, the study shows that the first REOF spatial pattern of average NDVI for May-June reveals the northern and southern zones with great inter-annual variations of vegetation, the northern zone from the eastern Ktmlun Mountains to the southwestern Qilian Mountain and southern zone from the northern edge of the Himalayas eastward to the Hengduan Mountains. The vegetation, especially grassland, in the two zones increases significantly with global warming, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 between the first REOF of May-June vegetation and the April-May surface air temperature anomaly in the NH during 1982-2002. A long-term increasing trend in May-June vegetation for the plateau region as a whole is also attributed mainly to global warming although there are considerable regional differences. The areas with low NDVI （grassland and shrubland） usually respond more evidently to global warming, especially since the 1990s, than those with moderate or high NDVI values.

Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ global warming targets

The long-term goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ℃. However, for climate mitigation and adaption efforts, further studies are still needed to understand the regional consequences between the two global warming limits. Here we provide an assessment of changes in temperature extremes over China （relative to 1986-2005） at 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming levels （relative to 1861-1900） by using the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） models under three RCP scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5）. Results show that the increases in mean temperature and temperature extremes over China are greater than that in global mean temperature. With respect to 1986-2005, the temperature of hottest day （TXx） and coldest night （TNn） are projected to increase about 1/1.6 ℃ and 1.1/1.8 ℃, whereas warm days （TX90p） and warm spell duration （WSDI） will increase about 7.5/13.8% and 15/30 d for the 1.5/2 ℃ global warming target, respectively. Under an additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, the projected increases of temperature in warmest day/night and coldest day/night are both more than 0.5 ℃ across almost the whole China. In Northwest China, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau, the projected changes are particularly sensitive to the additional 0.5 ℃ global warming, for example, multi-model mean increase in coldest day （TXn） and coldest night （TNn） will be about 2 times higher than a change of 0.5 ℃ global warming. Although the area-averaged changes in temperature extremes are very similar for different scenarios, spatial hotspot still exists, such as in Northwest China and North China, the increases in temperatures are apparently larger in RCP8.5 than that in RCP4.5.

Trend of Salt Lake Changes in the Background of Global Warming and Tactics for Adaptation to the Changes

Salt lakes are a mirror of climatic changes and provide holographic records of environmental changes of lakes. According to a study of geological hazards in typical salt lake areas in China and other regions, the authors explain how geological hazards in salt lake areas are caused by natural agents and how humans can seek benefits, avoid hazards and reduce losses on the premise that they have monitored and mastered the trend of salt lake changes in advance and even can store flood and recharge water in lakes and extract saline resources. The climate in western China is probably turning from warm-dry to warm-moist. The authors analyze the change trend of salt lakes sensu lato (with salinity≥0.3 wt% (NaCl)eq) and salt lakes sensu stricto (with salinity ≥3.5 wt% (NaCl)eq) in China in such climatic conditions and distinguish three types of salt lake areas (i.e. lake water rising type, lake water falling type and lake water rising and unstable type) according to the characteristics of lake water rising and shrinking. In order to conform to the climatic and lake changes in China's salt lake areas, the authors propose to add and improve hydrological and meteorological observation stations and integrate observations with remote sensing monitoring in important salt lake areas and set up multidisciplinary and interdepartmental basic projects to monitor and study recent climatic and environmental changes in salt lake areas of western China. Moreover, it is necessary to build additional flood-control and drought-preventing water conservancy facilities in key salt lake areas and work out measures for ecological protection in salt lake areas. Full consideration should be given to the influence of flooding when building saltfields and implementing capital projects.

Future Changes in Extreme High Temperature over China at 1.5℃-5℃ Global Warming Based on CMIP6 Simulations

Extreme high temperature(EHT)events are among the most impact-related consequences related to climate change,especially for China,a nation with a large population that is vulnerable to the climate warming.Based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),this study assesses future EHT changes across China at five specific global warming thresholds(1.5℃-5℃).The results indicate that global mean temperature will increase by 1.5℃/2℃ before 2030/2050 relative to pre-industrial levels(1861-1900)under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5),and warming will occur faster under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Under SSP5-8.5,global warming will eventually exceed 5℃ by 2100,while under SSP1-2.6,it will stabilize around 2℃ after 2050.In China,most of the areas where warming exceeds global average levels will be located in Tibet and northern China(Northwest China,North China and Northeast China),covering 50%-70%of the country.Furthermore,about 0.19-0.44 billion people(accounting for 16%-41%of the national population)will experience warming above the global average.Compared to present-day(1995-2014),the warmest day(TXx)will increase most notably in northern China,while the number of warm days(TX90p)and warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)will increase most profoundly in southern China.For example,relative to the present-day,TXx will increase by 1℃-5℃ in northern China,and TX90p(WSDI)will increase by 25-150(10-80)days in southern China at 1.5℃-5℃ global warming.Compared to 2℃-5℃,limiting global warming to 1.5℃ will help avoid about 36%-87%of the EHT increases in China.

Impacts of Global Warming Perturbation on Water Resources in Arid Zone: Case Study of Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China

The main goal of this study was to assess the long-term impacts of global warming perturbation on water resources of the Kaidu River Basin in Northwest China. Temperature, precipitation and hydrology data during the past 29 years from 1979 to 2007 were collected and analyzed using parametric and non-parametric methods, the connection between temperature and precipitation by the combination of grey correlation analysis method and the hypothesis testing for trend of climate change. The results show a high increase in temperature in the study area as well as an extreme and highly variable hydrological regime in this region, where flash floods can exceed the total runoff from a sequence of years. These variations may be due to the geographical location of the Kaidu River Basin in arid zone. It also reveals that precipitation has a much greater impact on stream flow than that of temperature. The development of new approaches was proposed as responses to climate change in this arid region.

The Impact of Global Warming on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Possible Mechanism

The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode （i.e., PDO）, and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific （PDO center）. The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center. It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.

On the Response of the Global Subduction Rate to Global Warming in Coupled Climate Models

The response of the global subduction rate to global warming was assessed based on a set of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） models. It was found that the subduction rate of the global ocean could be significantly reduced under a warming climate, as compared to a simulation of the present-day climate. The reduction in the subduction volume was quantitatively estimated at about 40 Sv and was found to be= primarily induced by the decreasing of the lateral induction term due to a shallower winter mixed layer depth. The shrinking of the winter mixed layer would result from intensified stratification caused by increased heat input into the ocean under a warming climate. A reduction in subduction associated with the vertical pumping term was estimated at about 5 Sv. F^rther, in the Southern Ocean, a significant reduction in subduction was estimated at around 24 Sv, indicating a substantial contribution to the weakening of global subduction.