Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization an...Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization and economic planning. Forecasting gold reserves and estimating their production lifespan are complex tasks that require robust statistical models capable of capturing the underlying dynamics of gold deposit accumulation and extraction. To this end, the four-parameter Beta distribution function emerges as a promising candidate due to its flexibility and ability to handle non-negative data. This research aims to investigate the fitness and applicability of the four-parameter Beta distribution function for forecasting Ghana’s gold reserves and estimating the production lifespan of this precious resource. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold reserve between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Beta, Weibull, Normal, Logistic and Gamma were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the four-parameter Beta distribution provided the best fit for gold reserve in Ghana. At a 99.9% confidence level and considering the current annual average gold production estimate of 3,700,031.248 to 4,302,647.888 ounces, the projected lifespan of gold production in Ghana extends to the year 1,953,765. This astounding estimate suggests that the country’s gold reserves are expected to sustain production for an extended period, providing a critical resource for economic development and supporting the mining industry well into the distant future.展开更多
Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization an...Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization and economic planning. Forecasting gold reserves and estimating their production lifespan are complex tasks that require robust statistical models capable of capturing the underlying dynamics of gold deposit accumulation and extraction. To this end, the four-parameter Beta distribution function emerges as a promising candidate due to its flexibility and ability to handle non-negative data. This research aims to investigate the fitness and applicability of the four-parameter Beta distribution function for forecasting Ghana’s gold reserves and estimating the production lifespan of this precious resource. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold reserve between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Beta, Weibull, Normal, Logistic and Gamma were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the four-parameter Beta distribution provided the best fit for gold reserve in Ghana. At a 99.9% confidence level and considering the current annual average gold production estimate of 3,700,031.248 to 4,302,647.888 ounces, the projected lifespan of gold production in Ghana extends to the year 1,953,765. This astounding estimate suggests that the country’s gold reserves are expected to sustain production for an extended period, providing a critical resource for economic development and supporting the mining industry well into the distant future.展开更多
Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturall...Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.展开更多
Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturall...Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.展开更多
文摘Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization and economic planning. Forecasting gold reserves and estimating their production lifespan are complex tasks that require robust statistical models capable of capturing the underlying dynamics of gold deposit accumulation and extraction. To this end, the four-parameter Beta distribution function emerges as a promising candidate due to its flexibility and ability to handle non-negative data. This research aims to investigate the fitness and applicability of the four-parameter Beta distribution function for forecasting Ghana’s gold reserves and estimating the production lifespan of this precious resource. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold reserve between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Beta, Weibull, Normal, Logistic and Gamma were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the four-parameter Beta distribution provided the best fit for gold reserve in Ghana. At a 99.9% confidence level and considering the current annual average gold production estimate of 3,700,031.248 to 4,302,647.888 ounces, the projected lifespan of gold production in Ghana extends to the year 1,953,765. This astounding estimate suggests that the country’s gold reserves are expected to sustain production for an extended period, providing a critical resource for economic development and supporting the mining industry well into the distant future.
文摘Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization and economic planning. Forecasting gold reserves and estimating their production lifespan are complex tasks that require robust statistical models capable of capturing the underlying dynamics of gold deposit accumulation and extraction. To this end, the four-parameter Beta distribution function emerges as a promising candidate due to its flexibility and ability to handle non-negative data. This research aims to investigate the fitness and applicability of the four-parameter Beta distribution function for forecasting Ghana’s gold reserves and estimating the production lifespan of this precious resource. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold reserve between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Beta, Weibull, Normal, Logistic and Gamma were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the four-parameter Beta distribution provided the best fit for gold reserve in Ghana. At a 99.9% confidence level and considering the current annual average gold production estimate of 3,700,031.248 to 4,302,647.888 ounces, the projected lifespan of gold production in Ghana extends to the year 1,953,765. This astounding estimate suggests that the country’s gold reserves are expected to sustain production for an extended period, providing a critical resource for economic development and supporting the mining industry well into the distant future.
文摘Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.
文摘Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.
