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The impact of fundamental factors and sentiments on the valuation of cryptocurrencies
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作者 Tiam Bakhtiar Xiaojun Luo Ismail Adelopo 《Blockchain(Research and Applications)》 EI 2023年第4期39-49,共11页
The valuation of cryptocurrencies is important given the increasing significance of this potential asset class.However,most state-of-the-art cryptocurrency valuation methods only focus on one of the fundamental factor... The valuation of cryptocurrencies is important given the increasing significance of this potential asset class.However,most state-of-the-art cryptocurrency valuation methods only focus on one of the fundamental factors or sentiments and use out-of-date data sources.In this study,a robust cryptocurrency valuation method is developed using up-to-date datasets.Using various panel regression models and moving-window regression tests,the impacts of fundamental factors and sentiments in the valuation of cryptocurrencies are explored with data covering from January 1,2009 to April 30,2023.The research shows the importance of sentiments and suggests that the fear and greed index can indicate when to make a cryptocurrency investment,while Google search interest in cryptocurrency is crucial when choosing the appropriate type of cryptocurrency.Moreover,consensus mechanism and initial coin offering have significant effects on cryptocurrencies without stablecoins,while their impacts on cryptocurrencies with stablecoins are insignificant.Other fundamental factors,such as the type of supply and the presence of smart contracts,do not have a significant influence on cryptocurrency.Findings from this study can enhance cryptocurrency marketisation and provide insightful guidance for investors,portfolio managers,and policymakers in assessing the utility level of each cryptocurrency. 展开更多
关键词 Cryptocurrency VALUATION Market sentiment Fundamental factors Fear and greed index google search index
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“黑天鹅”和“灰犀牛”事件对原油市场的冲击效应测算:GSI-BN研究框架 被引量:2
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作者 卢全莹 史惠婷 汪寿阳 《计量经济学报》 2022年第1期194-208,共15页
波谲云诡的国际形势及多变的全球市场环境,伴随着一系列的“黑天鹅”、“灰犀牛”突发事件.重大突发事件的冲击效应测算及价格拐点预测一直是学术界特别关心的热点和难点问题之一.本文提出了一个新的研究框架GSI-BN来分析重大突发事件... 波谲云诡的国际形势及多变的全球市场环境,伴随着一系列的“黑天鹅”、“灰犀牛”突发事件.重大突发事件的冲击效应测算及价格拐点预测一直是学术界特别关心的热点和难点问题之一.本文提出了一个新的研究框架GSI-BN来分析重大突发事件对原油市场的冲击效应并预测不同事件发生时油价的走势.首先,基于谷歌搜索指数(Google Search Index,GSI)构建突发事件网络舆情关注度指标,确定不同种类的突发事件的时间窗.其次,引入贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN),将突发事件简化到拓扑网络图上,细分突发事件并挖掘事件及其背后的条件概率,分析突发事件影响机制并预测其发生概率;最后,基于情景预判分析预测不同情景下突发事件所导致的油价走势.实证结果表明:当供给和需求的月均增速都较高时,供需仍处于均衡状态,油价在低价格区间的概率最大;当供给冲击较大,需求处于正常水平增速时,油价处于中低价格区间的概率最大;需求侧方面,当金融危机发生时,原油消费量的次月增速绝对值在中速增长区间的概率最大;供给侧方面,两种或三种突发事件同时发生都是小概率事件.此外,随着OPEC致力于减产,全球石油需求走高.飓风对价格的影响相较于往年逐渐变小.金融危机对原油市场的影响是全面的,只有部分影响会通过需求冲击传导到价格.战争和OPEC会议都是短暂的供给冲击,更多的是反映了市场的预期,传导到价格时,不会产生较大的价差.本文为研究突发事件对原油市场的冲击效应及油价拐点提供了一个新的视角和方法. 展开更多
关键词 原油价格 “黑天鹅”和“灰犀牛”事件 拐点预测 贝叶斯网络模型 google search index
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