The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world.Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic.Most of them only use very b...The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world.Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic.Most of them only use very basic SEIR model without considering the real situation.In this paper,we build a model called e-ISHR model based on SEIR model.Then we add hospital system and time delay system into the original model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 better.Besides,in order to take the government's control and people's awareness into consideration,we change our e-ISHR model into a 3-staged model which effectively shows the impact of these factors on the spread of the disease.By using this e-ISHR model,we fit and predict the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and China except Hubei.We also change some of parameters in our model.The results indicate the importance of isolation and increasing the number of beds in hospital.展开更多
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFB1004700)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61872238 and 61972254)+1 种基金the Shanghai Science and Technology Fund(No.17510740200)the CCF-Huawei Database System Innovation Research Plan(No.CCF-Huawei DBIR2019002A)。
文摘The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world.Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic.Most of them only use very basic SEIR model without considering the real situation.In this paper,we build a model called e-ISHR model based on SEIR model.Then we add hospital system and time delay system into the original model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 better.Besides,in order to take the government's control and people's awareness into consideration,we change our e-ISHR model into a 3-staged model which effectively shows the impact of these factors on the spread of the disease.By using this e-ISHR model,we fit and predict the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and China except Hubei.We also change some of parameters in our model.The results indicate the importance of isolation and increasing the number of beds in hospital.
