The hydrologic simulation of a catchment area, described as the transformation of rainfall into runoff, generally uses hydrologic model. This work opts for the global conceptual hydrologic model GR2M, a monthly time s...The hydrologic simulation of a catchment area, described as the transformation of rainfall into runoff, generally uses hydrologic model. This work opts for the global conceptual hydrologic model GR2M, a monthly time step model, to study the Kouilou-Niari basin, the second most important ones of the Republic of Congo. This includes two parameters to model the hydrologic behavior of a catchment area. The choice of the conceptual model GR2M is justified by the reduced number of parameters and the monthly time scale. The objective of this study is to determine the characteristic parameters of the GR2M model, by a calibrating and a validating procedure. The use of these parameters enables to follow the evolution of the water resources from the climatic variables. It has been first carried out a characterization of some physical, geological and climatic factors governing the flow, by dealing with the main climatic variables which constitute the inputs of the hydrologic model. Then, a hydrologic rainfall-runoff modeling allows to calibrate and validate the model at monthly time scale. Taking into account the number of parameters involved in hydrologic processes and the complexity of the cathment area, this model gives acceptable results throughout the Kouilou-Niari basin. The values of the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion and those of the correlation coefficient obtained are greater than 80% in validation, which explains the performance and robustness of the GR2M model on this basin.展开更多
Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate c...Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.展开更多
文摘The hydrologic simulation of a catchment area, described as the transformation of rainfall into runoff, generally uses hydrologic model. This work opts for the global conceptual hydrologic model GR2M, a monthly time step model, to study the Kouilou-Niari basin, the second most important ones of the Republic of Congo. This includes two parameters to model the hydrologic behavior of a catchment area. The choice of the conceptual model GR2M is justified by the reduced number of parameters and the monthly time scale. The objective of this study is to determine the characteristic parameters of the GR2M model, by a calibrating and a validating procedure. The use of these parameters enables to follow the evolution of the water resources from the climatic variables. It has been first carried out a characterization of some physical, geological and climatic factors governing the flow, by dealing with the main climatic variables which constitute the inputs of the hydrologic model. Then, a hydrologic rainfall-runoff modeling allows to calibrate and validate the model at monthly time scale. Taking into account the number of parameters involved in hydrologic processes and the complexity of the cathment area, this model gives acceptable results throughout the Kouilou-Niari basin. The values of the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion and those of the correlation coefficient obtained are greater than 80% in validation, which explains the performance and robustness of the GR2M model on this basin.
文摘Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.
