Factors Influencing Large-scale Operation of Large Grain Farmers in Northeast China

With the grain yield accounting for 20% of the whole country, the north- east China is a strategic region for ensuring national grain security and also a most centralized region of large grain farmers. Through a sampling survey of large grain farmers in 15 counties and cities of northeast China, with the aid of SPSS and AMOS software, using multiple regression analysis and structural equation modeling, this paper made a quantitative analysis on the influence of the subjective and ob- jective factors of large grain farmers on their large-scale management. The results showed that the age structure, educational level, family operating capital, yield ex- pectation and protective farming awareness of large grain farmers are the positive factors influencing their large scale operation due to agricultural subsidy policy. By comparison, the number of agricultural machinery and equipment owned by family, regional labor force, expectation for future income, and expectation for contractual scale become negative factors influencing large-scale operation of large grain farm- ers because of agricultural policies. When the future expectation, self conditions, family endowment, and operation conditions of large grain farmers increase one unit, their large scale operation motivation will increase by 0.692, 0.689, 0.487 and 0.363 units respectively. Thus, increasing the future expectation and self conditions of large grain farmers is a key factor for promoting large scale operation of farmland.

Establishment of Grain Farmers' Supply Response Model and Empirical Analysis under Minimum Grain Purchase Price Policy

Based on farmers' supply behavior theory and price expectations theory,this paper establishes grain farmers' supply response model of two major grain varieties (early indica rice and mixed wheat) in the major producing areas,to test whether the minimum grain purchase price policy can have price-oriented effect on grain production and supply in the major producing areas. Empirical analysis shows that the minimum purchase price published annually by the government has significant positive impact on farmers' grain supply in the major grain producing areas. In recent years,China steadily raises the level of minimum grain purchase price,which has played an important role in effectively protecting grain farmers' interests,mobilizing the enthusiasm of farmers' grain production,and ensuring the market supply of key grain varieties.

The Current Situation and Development of Grain Storage Technologies and Facilities for Chinese Farmers

In China, the quantity of farmer＇s grain storage covers about 40% of the total grain yield every year. While, the losses of farms＇ grain storage are up to 8%, which is due to the lack of grain storage facility and technology. The losses of farmer＇s grain storage could reach nearly 20 million tons every year. In this paper, the current situation and development of grain storage technology and facility for Chinese farmers were presented. And a series of policy and research work for reducing the losses of farms＇ grain storage was introduced. The large scale farmers are now developing quickly in China, the new storage warehouse and mechanized facility should be developed adaptively. So, the new storage technology and policy to meet the need of large scale farmers were also introduced in this paper.

Empirical Studies of the Factors Influencing Farmers' Enthusiasm for Growing Grain

To ensure the future food self-sufficiency in China,it is necessary to mobilize producers' enthusiasm for growing grain. Theoretically,it is mainly influenced by economic interests,land scale,farmers' characteristics and agricultural support policy. Through field research of farmers,we use model to explore these influencing factors. The results show that the dwindling arable land making grain cultivation fail to form economies of scale is a key factor restricting farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain; farmers' age and the share of agricultural labor in the family are important factors restricting their grain growing; agricultural support policy can stimulate the enthusiasm for growing grain to a certain extent. Therefore,there is a need to promote the concentration of land and improve various agricultural support policies,in order to improve the economic benefits of growing grain and encourage qualified young workers to engage in grain production activities.

Institutional Arrangement to Improve Farmers' Enthusiasm

On the basis of summarizing theories related to public goods,with the aid of trend curve of China's annual grain yield from 1978 to 2010,in combination with grain policies at that time,empirical analysis is carried out on institution as key factor influencing the farmers' enthusiasm,showing that there is highly positive correlation between institutional change and grain production.In order to raise farmers' production enthusiasm and ensure the national grain security,this paper puts forward appropriate countermeasure systems from the point of view of innovating grain production policies.The countermeasure systems include:firstly,innovate agricultural operation institution;secondly,improve agricultural personnel cultivation mechanism;thirdly,complete financial investment system;fourthly,set up grain security protection system;and finally,build risk support system.

高标准农田建设参与对农民种粮收益的影响——基于农业新质生产力的中介作用

基于全国10省1032份农户的微观调查数据,使用内生转换回归模型实证分析了高标准农田建设参与对农民种粮收益的影响。研究发现:(1)高标准农田建设参与显著提升农民种粮收益,且平均处理效应表明,参与高标准农田建设可使农民种粮收益提高2.77%。(2)异质性分析表明,相较于小农户,规模户参与高标准农田建设能够提升种粮收益;高标准农田建设参与不仅促进兼业农户增加种粮收益,而且促进纯农户增加种粮收益;相较于非粮食主产区,粮食主产区农户参与高标准农田建设的种粮收益提升效果更明显。(3)机制分析表明,高标准农田建设参与通过提升农业新质生产力水平,从而提高农民种粮收益。据此,鼓励农民积极参与高标准农田建设管理工作,制定出台农户参与高标准农田建设的差异化政策,同时加快培育和发展农业新质生产力,以实现农民种粮收益提升。

粮食安全视角下健全种粮农民收益保障机制研究

粮食安全是国家安全的重要基础,解决好粮食安全问题是建设社会主义现代化强国的必然要求。健全种粮农民收益保障机制,保障种粮农民根本收益是解决粮食安全问题的关键一环。从种粮农民收益保障的中国特色与时代背景出发,着重分析政府层面、市场层面以及农民层面在构建种粮农民收益保障机制中的内在逻辑,据此提出实现路径,健全和完善种粮农民收益保障机制,保障我国口粮绝对安全。

原粮产业链中新型农业经营服务主体高质量发展评价及路径

东北三省原粮产业链高质量发展的重要路径是新型农业经营主体通过社会化服务将现代生产要素引入粮农,那么亟需评价这种新型农业经营服务主体中是否存在高质量发展的示范主体,明确其通过社会化服务,引领其他新型农业经营服务主体服务小型粮农的高质量发展路径。对此,考虑引入现代生产要素的社会化服务、基于政策目标等设定各指标全面实现高质量发展的目标值并计入权重,构建了新型农业经营服务主体高质量发展评价模型,评价结果表明,处于高质量发展基本实现和全面实现阶段的社会化服务企业可作为高质量发展示范主体,其具有引领其他新型农业经营服务主体应用现代生产要素、提供全过程服务和数字赋能服务的能力;由此得出,上述示范型社会化服务企业引领其他新型农业经营服务主体服务小型粮农的高质量发展关键路径是建立社会化服务平台,该平台可引入大语言模型和检索增强生成技术,智能生成社会化服务方案。

技术培训对农户粮食生产韧性的影响效应与作用机制

基于全国农村固定观察点数据,以水稻、小麦和玉米主产区农户为研究对象,采用韧性评估模型、内生转换模型以及中介和调节效应模型,实证分析技术培训对农户粮食生产韧性的影响效应及其作用机制。结果表明:技术培训能显著增强农户粮食生产韧性,该结论在稳健性检验后依然成立;技术培训可以通过促进农户增加内部投资来提升粮食生产韧性,而不能通过促进农户增加外部投资来提升粮食生产韧性,土地经营规模则在技术培训对农户粮食生产韧性的影响中有正向调节作用;内部投资的中介效应和土地经营规模的调节效应在小麦和玉米种植户中更为明显。

Grain Hermetic Storage Adoption in Northern Uganda: Awareness, Use, and the Constraints to Technology Adoption

Post-harvest storage losses (PHLs) remain significant in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to several factors mainly insect pests and molds. Hermetic storage technologies (HSTs) are being promoted to address these storage losses. In Uganda, HSTs were first introduced in 2012. However, its use among farming households remains low today. Data were collected from 306 smallholder farmers from four districts of Northern Uganda using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire to understand their knowledge, use, and constraints to the adoption of hermetic storage. A multivariate Logit regression model was used to find the significance of the factors affecting adoption. Results showed low awareness and use of hermetic storage among smallholder farmers. Only 53.3% of the interviewed farmers were aware of the use of hermetic storage for grain storage. The SuperGrain bag was the most known form of hermetic storage (35.3%), followed by the Purdue Improved Crop Storage (PICS) bag (34.9%), metallic silo (15.5%), and plastic silo (14.4%). Hermetic storage use was even lower as only 17.6% of the surveyed farmers were using one or more forms of hermetic storage to store their grains. Insect pest management without chemical insecticides was the main reason (83.1%) for hermetic storage use. About 75.5% of those aware of hermetic storage had received training in the technology. Hermetic storage use in farming households led to improved food availability, household income, and nutrition. Lack of local availability (50.2%), high costs (37.8%), and inadequate knowledge (6.9%) were the main constraints hindering the adoption of hermetic storage in Northern Uganda. The logit regression models showed that only training in hermetic storage significantly (p = 0.002) affected farmers’ decision to adopt hermetic storage. Understanding the factors that constrain the adoption of HSTs could provide policymakers with important information to initiate and design policies and programs aimed at reducing crop storage losses.

种粮农户参与农民专业合作社的效应评价及其异质性分析——基于10省农户调研数据

参与农民专业合作社是农户顺应现代农业发展的重要表现,提高种粮农民的粮食生产效益更是确保粮食供给和粮食安全的重要基础.利用全国10省份1027户微观调查数据,实证检验加入农民专业合作社对农户粮食生产效益的影响及作用机理,并分析其异质性效应.研究发现,参与专业合作社能够显著提升农户粮食生产效益,使用工具变量法缓解内生性问题和通过一系列稳健性检验后,研究结论仍然成立.机制分析表明,参与专业合作社主要通过降低粮食生产成本、提升经营风险分散能力和推动农地规模流转等渠道增加入社农户粮食生产效益.交互项结果显示,机耕机收服务与以土地入股专业合作社对农户粮食生产效益的提升作用最为明显.异质性分析表明,参与专业合作社对不同农地经营规模农户的粮食生产效益影响呈“U”形;对家庭成员平均受教育程度较低农户、接受过农业技能培训的农户以及种养结合型农户的粮食生产增效作用更大.

大食物观下种粮小农户迈向共同富裕的路径探赜——基于优势视角的分析

以大食物观推进粮食安全建设,是农业强国的重要构成部分。大食物观具有丰富的理论内涵,包括大农业观、大资源观与大产业观,给种粮小农户迈向共同富裕带来了发展机遇。已有研究只窥视到种粮小农户的生产局限与不足,应从优势视角出发,发现种粮小农户具有的组织优势、资源优势与网络优势。将种粮小农户的优势与大食物观相结合,凭借组织稳定性、灵活性与适应性优势发展大农业观,推动农业供给侧改革;以资源的丰富性、多样性优势践行大资源观,构建多元食物供给体系;以网络的丰富性、延展性、信任性优势发展大产业观,延伸农业生产价值链;以种粮小农户为主体落实大食物观,保障国家食物安全、满足民众膳食需求与推动种粮小农户走向共同富裕相耦合,实现“三赢”的多重目标效应。

新发展阶段粮食安全与农民增收路径

运用2010-2021年我国26个省份的面板数据,以粮食产量为产出变量,以劳动力、资本、水资源、土地资源、农药、化肥为投入变量,计算粮食生产效率,运用回归模型分析粮食生产效率对农民收入的影响。回归分析结果显示粮食生产效率对农民收入具有正的影响,据此提出降低农业生产成本、促进城镇化与农业现代化协同发展、优化财政支农形式等建议,以提高粮食生产效率,促进农民增收。

浙江省种粮大户发展情况、存在问题及对策研究

近年来,浙江省以种粮大户为代表的粮食规模化经营主体加快成长,逐步发展成为粮食生产的“主力军”,在促进粮食生产扩面提质、保障粮食安全中发挥了重要作用。为全面了解浙江省种粮大户发展及其生产经营情况,进一步总结经验,推进粮食规模化经营健康发展,笔者进行了专题调研。调研中发现,浙江省种粮大户呈现“一降四提高”发展态势(种粮大户数量下降,种粮大户经营规模、生产水平、获利能力和带动作用不断提高),文章指出了存在的“不平衡、不充分、年龄大、模式旧、期限短、效益低”等6个方面问题并提出了对策建议:依托“两进两回”,培育高素质种粮大户;依托农业“标准地”改革,优化种粮大户土地经营条件;依托农业“双强行动”,提升种粮大户生产水平;依托“农事服务中心”,解决种粮大户后顾之忧;依托“政策扶持”,提高种粮大户积极性;依托“数字化改革”,推进种粮大户数字化应用能力。

农业强国视域下粮食产区粮食产业与特色农业协同发展研究

为更好地实现“加快建设农业强国”目标,对于粮食产区而言,保证粮食安全、促进农民增收、发展现代农业、增加地方收入等是必须完成的发展任务。需要分析如何在保证粮食产业健康发展的同时,通过发展具有区位比较优势的高附加值特色农业,实现农民增收和地方财力增长,进而实现乡村振兴和农民农村共同富裕这一重点问题。结果表明,粮食产业与特色农业之间存在着诸多差异,这些差异会导致二者在发展中产生问题和矛盾。为促进粮食产业与特色农业的协同发展,应以组织方式集体化,实现粮食产业与特色农业的利益协同;以技术研发基地化,实现粮食产业与特色农业的科技协同;以生产方式工业化,实现粮食产业与特色农业的生产协同;以销售推广网络化,实现粮食产业与特色农业的渠道协同。说明粮食产业与特色农业协同发展,是农业强国视域下实现粮食产区乡村振兴和农民农村共同富裕目标的有效路径。

基于种粮农户视角的数字普惠金融抑制耕地“非粮化”研究

我国耕地“非粮化”水平总体较高,数字普惠金融的发展为破解耕地“非粮化”难题提供了新视角。利用2011—2020年我国各省的面板数据,采用固定效应模型,实证分析了数字普惠金融发展对耕地“非粮化”的影响。结果表明:(1)数字普惠金融总指数(FI)在0.01水平上显著负向影响耕地“非粮化”率。经济发展水平、财政支农水平、人力资本水平、信息化水平分别在0.01、0.01、0.01、0.05水平上显著正向影响耕地“非粮化”率;有效灌溉水平、基础设施水平、农作物受灾水平分别在0.01、0.01、0.05水平上显著负向影响耕地“非粮化”率。(2)数学普惠金融指数中的覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度3个维度在0.01水平上显著负向影响耕地“非粮化”。(3)主产区、主销区的数字普惠金融总指数分别在0.05、0.01水平上显著负向影响耕地“非粮化”,产销平衡区的数字普惠金融总指数负向影响耕地“非粮化”,但不显著。提出提高数字普惠金融的发展广度与深度、因地制宜地发展数字普惠金融等对策建议。

辽宁农户玉米储藏“地趴粮”真菌毒素调查研究及防控措施

通过对辽宁部分地区农户储粮的调查,了解农户玉米产后临储现状,针对辽宁农户普遍存在的玉米“地趴粮”储存方式,对辽北地区三家农户玉米“地趴粮”进行真菌毒素污染情况抽样调查,结果显示,三家农户玉米赤霉烯酮均受到污染,脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇(赤霉烯酮)未见污染;“地趴粮”方式储存玉米极易遭受真菌毒素感染并产生真菌毒素。通过调查分析,提出预防玉米真菌毒素污染的措施建议。

节水灌溉技术采用对农户耕地“非粮化”倾向的影响——兼论不同情景约束下的调节效应

科学技术的采用并非都能形成积极影响,也可能诱导一些负面影响,需要辩证看待。与粮食作物相比,节水灌溉技术与非粮作物具有更高的契合度和收益率,使得农户在采用节水灌溉技术增产增收的同时,易产生耕地“非粮化”倾向。基于河南等五省(区)的3440户农户数据,实证分析了节水灌溉技术采用对农户耕地“非粮化”的诱导影响,并构建了相关情景约束以减弱不利影响。结果表明,节水灌溉技术采用会显著促进农户耕地“非粮化”倾向产生。节水灌溉技术采用形成的预期非粮作物收益与实际种粮收益的亩均收入差为5286.13元,是节水灌溉技术采用与农户耕地“非粮化”倾向之间的中介机制。规模化经营、降低劳动力成本等农户生产经营条件会显著减弱节水灌溉技术采用对农户耕地“非粮化”倾向的诱导作用;粮食补贴会显著抑制节水灌溉技术采用对耕地“非粮化”的诱导,但受到种植规模的约束,小规模经营中粮食补贴的抑制作用更明显。鉴于此,建议在推广节水灌溉技术时,通过完善节水灌溉的配套支持、优化粮食生产条件和加大种粮补贴等手段,提高农户种粮积极性,抑制耕地“非粮化”倾向。

关于粮食检验检测机构发挥公益性技术服务作用的几点思考

结合2023年中央农村工作会议精神,全面分析了粮食检验检测行业发展现状,面对新发展阶段和新要求,就如何发挥粮食检验检测机构技术服务作用,提出了推进粮食检验技术惠农下乡的思路和方向,探索了如何服务农民和涉粮单位,充分发挥宣传科普、技术指导推广、检验服务、质量调查、品质测报和基础研究等技术服务作用的具体措施,以期更好履行粮食和物资储备行政管理部门的公共服务职责,推进粮食产业提质增效,提升农民群众获得感、幸福感、安全感,助力优质粮食工程“六大提升行动”,为实施国家粮食安全战略和粮食产业强国建设提供技术支撑。

农户安全储粮装具的研究与推广实践

农户储粮是粮食产后储存的重要环节,安全储粮装具是农户科学储粮、保障粮食安全的物质条件。系统分析了当前全球及国内粮食损失情况,重点介绍近年来山东省粮食部门主导的农户新型安全储粮装具研制推广情况、使用效果及产生的经济和社会效益。通过详细介绍仓型设计技术标准和各种装具储粮对比数据,充分肯定彩钢板组合粮仓安全储粮效果,农户科学使用彩钢板组合仓储粮,年平均损失由8%降至2%以内。立足当前农村土地流转及粮食安全新形势,对下一步农户储粮装具的研究进行探讨,对适用种粮大户的中型钢板粮仓提出初步设计方案。