A High-Resolution Earth’s Gravity Field Model SGG-UGM-2 from GOCE,GRACE,Satellite Altimetry,and EGM2008

This paper focuses on estimating a new high-resolution Earth’s gravity field model named SGG-UGM-2 from satellite gravimetry,satellite altimetry,and Earth Gravitational Model 2008(EGM2008)-derived gravity data based on the theory of the ellipsoidal harmonic analysis and coefficient transformation(EHA-CT).We first derive the related formulas of the EHA-CT method,which is used for computing the spherical harmonic coefficients from grid area-mean and point gravity anomalies on the ellipsoid.The derived formulas are successfully evaluated based on numerical experiments.Then,based on the derived least-squares formulas of the EHA-CT method,we develop the new model SGG-UGM-2 up to degree 2190 and order 2159 by combining the observations of the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer(GOCE),the normal equation of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE),marine gravity data derived from satellite altimetry data,and EGM2008-derived continental gravity data.The coefficients of degrees 251–2159 are estimated by solving the block-diagonal form normal equations of surface gravity anomalies(including the marine gravity data).The coefficients of degrees 2–250 are determined by combining the normal equations of satellite observations and surface gravity anomalies.The variance component estimation technique is used to estimate the relative weights of different observations.Finally,global positioning system(GPS)/leveling data in the mainland of China and the United States are used to validate SGG-UGM-2 together with other models,such as European improved gravity model of the earth by new techniques(EIGEN)-6C4,GECO,EGM2008,and SGG-UGM-1(the predecessor of SGG-UGM-2).Compared to other models,the model SGG-UGM-2 shows a promising performance in the GPS/leveling validation.All GOCE-related models have similar performances both in the mainland of China and the United States,and better performances than that of EGM2008 in the mainland of China.Due to the contribution of GRACE data and the new marine gravity anomalies,SGG-UGM-2 is slightly better than SGG-UGM-1 both in the mainland of China and the United States.

Study on the Prediction of Rice Blast Based on the Unbiased GM (1,1) Model

To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM （1, 1 ） model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM （1, 1 ） model is higher than the unbiased GM （1,1） model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010.

Joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data for a two-layer model

Based on the synchronous joint gravity and magnetic inversion of single interface by Pilkington and the need of revealing Cenozoic and crystalline basement thickness in the new round of oil-gas exploration, we propose a joint gravity and magnetic inversion methodfor two-layer models by concentrating on the relationship between the change of thicknessI and position of the middle layer and anomaly and discuss the effects of the key parameters. Model tests and application to field data show the validity of this method.

对中直接投资立地选择因素分析——Gravity Model分析

利用中国与对中直接投资12个主要国家(地区)的1990年至2006年的面板数据,通过重力模型实证分析对中直接投资的决定因素。结果表明,经济规模对直接投资的吸引起到正面的有益的影响,而距离的增加对直接投资的吸引则有负面影响,虚拟变量的说服力也很高。通过分析,得出两国间贸易额的影响比其他变量的影响更为显著的结果。

The quantified analysis of China's GM cotton yield capacity by C-D function and stochastic frontier model

Using a modified C D function and stochastic frontier model, the paper analyzed China's cotton yield capacity and found that the yield and technical efficiency of China's cotton planting system can be increased by the use of genetically modified (GM) varieties.

基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的我国医院感染患病率变化趋势及预测

目的了解我国医院感染患病率变化趋势,并采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国不同规模医院的医院感染患病率进行预测,为医院感染防控提供数据支持和新思路。方法采用描述性流行病学方法分析我国医院感染患病率变化趋势,2008—2016年我国医院感染患病率数据进行灰色GM(1,1)模型构建,2018—2020年数据进行模型验证。采用构建的灰色GM(1,1)模型对2022—2024年我国医院感染患病率进行预测。结果我国医院感染患病率呈下降趋势,随着医院规模的增加医院感染患病率升高。医院感染患病率灰色GM(1,1)模型的精度良好、拟合效果较高。2024年全国、<300张床位医院、300~599张床位医院、600~899张床位医院和≥900张床位医院的医院感染患病率可降为1.00%、0.49%、0.90%、1.13%和2.05%。结论我国医院感染防控效果明显,灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国医院感染患病率有较好的预测效果。

GM(1,1)模型在安徽省城镇化水平预测中的应用

为了推进安徽省城镇化建设,制定正确的城镇发展方针政策是十分必要的.而对安徽省未来城镇化水平进行合理预测则可为政府制定城镇发展方针政策提供理论依据.现选取2010~2021年的安徽省城镇化率作为研究数据,采用GM(1,1)模型对安徽省城镇化水平建立动态预测模型,并对建立的模型进行了检验.研究表明:GM(1,1)模型具有较好的拟合精度,建模精度达到99.38%.运用GM(1,1)模型对2022~2026年安徽省城镇化率进行预测,预测结果显示未来几年安徽省城镇化水平将呈上升趋势.

基于GM(1,1)-IPSO-BP的重载铁路小半径曲线钢轨磨耗预测方法

为实现重载铁路小半径曲线段钢轨磨耗量的精准预测,提出一种非等间距灰色模型GM(1,1)与改进粒子群算法(IPSO)优化BP神经网络相结合的钢轨磨耗预测方法。首先,根据积分原理优化GM(1,1)非等间距模型的背景值计算方法,基于改进的模型得到实测磨耗序列的初步预测结果;然后,利用IPSO算法对BP神经网络的权值和阈值进行自动寻优,对GM(1,1)模型初步预测序列的残差进行校正;最后,将优化后的两种模型组合构建基于GM(1,1)-IPSO-BP的重载铁路小半径曲线地段钢轨磨耗量预测模型。以某重载铁路桥上半径400 m曲线为例,利用长期的磨耗监测数据进行方法的适用性分析,研究结果表明:GM(1,1)-IPSO-BP模型克服了磨耗数据的非线性、随机性特征对计算结果的影响,预测精度优于单独使用GM(1,1)、IPSO-BP模型;背景值优化后的GM(1,1)模型预测准确性更可靠;IPSO优化算法提高了BP神经网络计算的精度和速度;预测结果和实测数据之间的相对误差不大于4%;在预测区间上的绝对误差小于0.4 mm,运用该方法能够较准确地得到钢轨磨耗的发展规律。研究结果可为重载铁路小半径曲线钢轨的精准维修和科学使用提供参考。

基于新陈代谢GM(1,1)++的疫情应急物资需求量预测研究

当大规模疫情发生时,应急物资的供给至关重要.在新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的基础上提出了一种新陈代谢GM(1,1)++模型,即再加入新信息,移除原始数据中的旧信息的同时,将原始数据中与拟合值相对残差最大的数据项用拟合值替代.提出的方法既能够及时去掉意义逐渐降低的老信息,加入更能够反应系统目前特征的新信息,又能够降低其他因素对原始数据的扰动性,使原始数据更具规律性.为了检验新陈代谢GM(1,1)++模型的有效性,将其预测结果分别与传统GM(1,1)、新信息GM(1,1)、新陈代谢GM(1,1)的预测结果进行比较研究.试验结果显示,新陈代谢GM(1,1)++模型的误差平方和最小,预测准确性远优于另外3种预测模型.

Modeling mechanism and extension of GM (1,1)

Firstly, the research progress of grey model GM （1,1） is summarized, which is divided into three development stages： assimilation, alienation and melting stages. Then, the matrix analysis theory is used to study the modeling mechanism of GM （1,1）, which decomposes the modeling data matrix into raw data transformation matrix, accumulated generating operation matrix and background value selection matrix. The changes of these three matrices are the essential reasons affecting the modeling and the accuracy of GM （1,1）. Finally, the paper proposes a generalization grey model GGM （1,1）, which is a extended form of GM （1,1） and also a unified form of model GM （1,1）, model GM （1,1,α）, stage grey model, hopping grey model, generalized accumulated model, strengthening operator model, weakening operator model and unequal interval model. And the theory and practical significance of the extended model is analyzed.

Three-dimensional numerical modeling of gravity anomalies based on Poisson equation in spacewavenumber mixed domain

In gravity-anomaly-based prospecting, the computational and memory requirements for practical numerical modeling are potentially enormous. Achieving an efficient and precise inversion for gravity anomaly imaging over large-scale and complex terrain requires additional methods. To this end, we have proposed a new topography-capable By performing a two-dimensional Fourier transform in the horizontal directions, threedimensional partial differential equations in the spatial domain were transformed into a group of independent, one-dimensional differential equations engaged with different wave numbers. These independent differential equations are highly parallel across different wave numbers. differential equations with different wave numbers, and the efficiency of solving fixedbandwidth linear equations was further improved by a chasing method. In a synthetic test, a prism model was used to verify the accuracy and reliability of the proposed algorithm by comparing the numerical solution with the analytical solution. We studied the computational precision and efficiency with and without topography using different Fourier transform methods. The results showed that the Guass-FFT method has higher numerical precision, while the standard FFT method is superior, in terms of computation time, for inversion and quantitative interpretation under complicated terrain.

A New Modified GM (1,1) Model: Grey Optimization Model

Based on the optimization method, a new modified GM (1,1) model is presented, which is characterized by more accuracy prediction for the grey modeling.

EGM2008模型计算重力扰动位及相关量的方法研究

地球重力场模型EGM2008提供了计算全球高分辨率和高精度重力场相关参量的可能。本文采用球谐综合的方法,对重力扰动位、重力异常、大地水准面高等物理量的计算步骤和方法进行了研究和分析,并编制了相应的计算程序基于EGM2008无潮模型和零潮模型对以上参量进行了计算,同NGA发布的计算程序计算的结果进行了比对,验证了计算的方法正确性和可靠性。

Robust inversion analysis of local gravity anomalies caused by geological dislocation model of faults

Theoretical analysis and practical observations show that fault dislocations can change the gravity field around the fault. Gravity changes which were caused by the repeated dislocations over a long period of time were superimposed on the Bougeur gravity anomalies. These anomalies became the evidence of historical movement of fault as well as provide a way for the study of paleo earthquakes. This paper investigates inversion methods for the geological dislocation modeling of faults using the local Bouguer's gravity anomalies. To remove the effects of the irrelevant part of gravity anomalies to fault movements, we propose the robust nonlinear inversion method and set up the corresponding algorithm. Modeling examples indicate that the Marquardt's and Baye's least squares solutions depart from the true solution due to the attraction of gross errors in the data. The more seriously the data is contaminated, the more seriously the solutions are biased. In contrast, the proposed robust Marquardt's and Baye's inversion solutions can still maintain consistency with the solution without gross errors, even though 50 percent of the data is contaminated. This indicates that the proposed robust methods are effective. Using the proposed methods, we invert the geological dislocation models of the faults around the Erhai Lake in West Yunnan. The results show that the Northern Cangdong fault and the Erhai fault are normal dip slip faults with about 4 to 5 km dislocations; and that the Southern Cangdong fault has a less dip slip compared with the former two. A satisfactory fitting between the theoretical values of the inversion solution and the actual local gravity field is achievable.

基于GM(1,1)模型的地铁基坑变形预测研究

在深大基坑开挖过程中,基坑周围土体会受到扰动,势必会影响到基坑、基坑周围建筑物和构筑物的稳定与安全。为解决基坑开挖过程中变形监测周期过长而无法长期监测以及监测数据误差等问题,以某工程实例为依据,对基坑周围地表沉降变形进行监测,以地表沉降监测数据为基础数据建立GM(1,1)预测模型,进行基坑后期沉降变形预测分析。结果表明:该模型预测结果能较好的反映基坑的沉降变形情况,预测精度能满足工程需要,预测结果相对于实际观测值表现出超前现象,可为类似工程建设提供参考。

Effects of rotation and gravity on an electro-magneto-thermoelastic medium with diffusion and voids by using the Lord-Shulman and dual-phase-lag models

The effects of rotation and gravity on an electro-magneto-thermoelastic medium with diffusion and voids in a generalized thermoplastic half-space are studied by using the Lord-Shulman (L-S) model and the dual-phase-lag (DPL) model. The analytical solutions for the displacements, stresses, temperature, diffusion concentration, and volume fraction field with different values of the magnetic field, the rotation, the gravity, and the initial stress are obtained and portrayed graphically. The results indicate that the effects of gravity, rotation, voids, diffusion, initial stress, and electromagnetic field are very pronounced on the physical properties of the material.

The GM Models That x(n) Be Taken as Initial Value

As a kind of mathematical model, grey systems predi ct ion model has been widely applied to economy, management and engineering technol ogy. In 1982, Professor Deng Ju-long presented GM prediction model. Then some o ther scholars made improvements on GM model. Of course, much still should be don e to develop it. What the scholars have done is to take the first component of X (1) as the starting conditions of the grey differential model. It occ urs that the new information can not be used enough. This paper is addressed to choose the nth component of X (1) as the starting conditions to improv e the models. The main results of the paper is given in Theorem 2: The time response function of the grey differential equation x (0)(k)+az (1)(k)=b is given by x (1)(k)=x (1)(n)-ba e -a(k-n )+ba. and Theorem4: The time response of the grey Verhulst model is given by (1)(k) =ax (1)(n)bx (1)(n)+(a-bx (1)(n))ae a(k-n). As the new information is fully used, the accuracy of prediction is improved gre atly. Therefore, the new model with a certain theoretical and practical value.

Crustal structure of the western Indian shield: Model based on regional gravity and magnetic data

Regional surface gravity data and global satellite magnetic data have been utilized to generate a preliminary model of the crustal structure along a southwest-northeast profile （Gadra-Fatehpur） through western Rajasthan.The study area represents the western part of the Indian continental landmass which has undergone several major episodes of repeated subduction/collision,plume traces and rifting from Archaean to recent times.The temporal and spatial relationship between the various geotectonic provinces is quite complex,thereby limiting the emergence of a suitable crustal structure model for this region.Exposures of the Malani Igneous Suite （MIS）,a product of bimodal volcanism （～780 Ma）,and considered to be the third largest felsic magmatic province of the world,is evident along the profile and also to the southwest of the study area.The easternmost part of the profile is close to the DAFB （Delhi Aravalli Fold Belt）,a Proterozoic orogenic belt.This study probes the geometry of the different crustal units in terms of density and susceptibility variations in order to decipher the imprints of the major tectonic processes the region has undergone.In order to decipher the crustal geometry of the Gadra-Fatehpur profile,two NW-SE gravity and magnetic profile vertical sections （A-A＇ in the south and B-B＇ in the north） are modelled on the basis of the constraints provided from previous seismic models.The crustal model of the Gadra-Fatehpur profile is composed of alluvium,Tertiary sediments,MIS,Marwar Supergroup,low-density layers （LDLs） and the middle-lower crustal layers,with a distinct change in configuration from the southwest to northeast.The Moho dips from SW to NE,the MIS in the SW gives way to the thick pile of the Marwar Supergroup to the NE.The evolution of MIS has been suggested to have occurred as a consequence of delamination of the upper mantle.LDLs are incorporated in Gadra-Fatehpur model.In the SW,LDL （2550 kg/m3） lies below the MIS in the NE,another LDL （2604 kg/m3） is depicted below the mid-crustal layer.

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Determinants of the Belt and Road Initiative: A Maximum Entropy Gravity Model Approach

The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.

Improvement and application of GM(1,1) model based on multivariable dynamic optimization

For the classical GM(1,1)model,the prediction accuracy is not high,and the optimization of the initial and background values is one-sided.In this paper,the Lagrange mean value theorem is used to construct the background value as a variable related to k.At the same time,the initial value is set as a variable,and the corresponding optimal parameter and the time response formula are determined according to the minimum value of mean relative error(MRE).Combined with the domestic natural gas annual consumption data,the classical model and the improved GM(1,1)model are applied to the calculation and error comparison respectively.It proves that the improved model is better than any other models.