Empirical analysis of carbon tariff's effect on the export structure of China's manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries,it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries.Concentrated on the manufacturing industry,which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China's export structure,this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade.First,by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model,it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China's manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China's manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax.Furthermore,with the application of the GTAP model,it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China's manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways,and then analyzes the influence on China's manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well.The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China's export price and export volume,and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China.However,the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff.In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China's energy-intensive industries,such as chemical rubber products,oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry,whose export would be reduced,the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest,which will decrease the paper industry's export ranging from 1.79%to 6.05%,whereas the other industries' export will increase.Anyhow,it will promote China's manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent.In addition,it will lead to a decrease in China's welfare,with a decrease between $2,134 billion and $8,347 billion.Finally,this paper provides information on international coordination,export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China's manufacturing industry.

Opportunities and Challenges of Artificial Intelligence for Green Manufacturing in the Process Industry

Smart manufacturing is critical in improving the quality of the process industry. In smart manufacturing, there is a trend to incorporate different kinds of new-generation information technologies into process- safety analysis. At present, green manufacturing is facing major obstacles related to safety management, due to the usage of large amounts of hazardous chemicals, resulting in spatial inhomogeneity of chemical industrial processes and increasingly stringent safety and environmental regulations. Emerging informa- tion technologies such as arti cial intelligence (AI) are quite promising as a means of overcoming these dif culties. Based on state-of-the-art AI methods and the complex safety relations in the process industry, we identify and discuss several technical challenges associated with process safety: ① knowledge acquisition with scarce labels for process safety;② knowledge-based reasoning for process safety;③ accurate fusion of heterogeneous data from various sources;and ④ effective learning for dynamic risk assessment and aided decision-making. Current and future works are also discussed in this context.

Impact of the green credit policy on external financing,economic growth and energy consumption of the manufacturing industry

China attempts to achieve energy conservation,emission reduction and environmental protection through the implementation of the green credit policy,but its implementation impact is still controversial.An important content of the green credit policy is to require banking and financial institutions to tighten the credit exposure of industries of‘high pollution and high energy consumption’and industries with overcapacity,so as to use economic leverage to curb their blind expansion and reduce energy consumption by controlling external financing.This paper examined the impact and the lingering effects of the green credit policy on external financing,economic growth and energy consumption in the manufacturing industry,which was most influenced by the green credit policy,from 2003 to 2016 by using the DID method.Furthermore,this paper estimated the dynamic endogenous relationships among external financing,economic growth and energy consumption with two-step system GMM model to investigate the influential path of the green credit policy.The results showed that:the green credit policy had a significant negative impact on the external financing of manufacturing industry,but its negative impact on the economic growth and energy consumption of manufacturing industry was not statistically significant,and the effect of the green credit policy had a dynamic feature of weakening with time.Additionally,in the manufacturing industry,there was a bilateral causal relationship between the energy consumption and economic growth of the control group industry and the processing group industry.There was a bilateral causal relationship between the economic growth and external financing of the control group industries in the manufacturing industry.There was a unilateral causal relationship between the economic growth and external financing of the processing group industries in the manufacturing industry,while the external causality existed between the control group industries and the processing group industries in the manufacturing industry.The causal relationship between the financing and energy consumption was not statistically significant.At present,the transmission path of the green credit policy is that the green credit policy controls external financing,then affects economic growth and ultimately inhibits energy consumption,but the effectiveness of the path is not statistically significant.The conclusion of this paper provides policy reference and scientific basis for the adjustment and improvement of green credit.

The optimization method of industrial robot arm structure based on green manufacturing technology

In order to realize the optimal design of the industrial robot arm structure,an optimization method of the industrial robot arm structure based on green manufacturing technology is proposed.The stability of arm structure parameter acquisition can be controlled.The quantitative adjustment model of structural optimization parameters is constructed.The differential fusion control of the arm structure is realized.This paper analyzes the structure parameter law of the robot arm.We use dynamic parameter prediction and output torque parameter compensation method to control the arm structure.According to the adaptive iterative processing results,the arm structure parameter identification is realized.According to the identification results,the cutting parameter optimization method is adopted for the analytical control of the arm structure,and finally the optimized design of the industrial robot arm structure is realized through the green manufacturing technology.The simulation test results show that for the accuracy of the industrial robot arm structure design,this method is better,the output stability is higher,and the arm motion trajectory has a low deviation from the actual motion trajectory,which improves the optimization control and design capabilities of the industrial robot arm structure.

Fundamental Theories and Key Technologies for Smart andOptimal Manufacturing in the Process Industry

Given the significant requirements for transforming and promoting the process industry, we present themajor limitations of current petrochemical enterprises, including limitations in decision-making, produc-tion operation, efficiency and security, information integration, and so forth. To promote a vision of theprocess industry with efficient, green, and smart production, modern information technology should beutilized throughout the entire optimization process for production, management, and marketing. To focuson smart equipment in manufacturing processes, as well as on the adaptive intelligent optimization of themanufacturing process, operating mode, and supply chain management, we put forward several key scien-tific problems in engineering in a demand-driven and application-oriented manner, namely：intelligentsensing and integration of all process information, including production and management information; collaborative decision-making in the supply chain, industry chain, and value chain, driven by knowledge; cooperative control and optimization of plant-wide production processes via human-cyber-physical in-teraction; and Q life-cycle assessments for safety and environmental footprint monitoring, in addition totracing analysis and risk control. In order to solve these limitations and core scientific problems, we furtherpresent fundamental theories and key technologies for smart and optimal manufacturing in the processindustry. Although this paper discusses the process industry in China, the conclusions in this paper can beextended to the larocess industry around the world.

Green transformation of manufacturing industry for ecological protection in Jiangsu Province

Under the new normal economy, the manufacturing industry is developing rapidly as the focus of economic development in Jiangsu. Its rapid development has brought great opportunities to our society, but at the same time, great challenges has been brought to the natural environment. The resource consumption and environmental pollution problems have become increasingly prominent. In the face of this situation, we must try every means to reduce pollution and save energy. Therefore, the transition trend of manufacturing industry in the future is bound to take the green economy as the background. Thus, this paper analyzes the drawbacks of the manufacturing industry in Jiangsu province. And the status of traditional manufacturing enterprises and advantages of green manufacturing are analyzed. Then, the paper proposed to explore the practice of green manufacturing mode for the ecological protection, so as to achieve the industrial transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in Jiangsu province.

The Impact of Green Finance on the Ecologicalization of Urban Industrial Structure-Based on GMM of Dynamic Panel System

Although a number of studies have been published in the general area on various factors affecting the ecologicalization of urban industrial structure,little work has been carried out for empirical studies quantitatively analyzing the relevance between green finance development and the ecologicalization of urban industrial structure.Therefore,based on a comprehensive index of green finance development,this research employs panel data of target cities1 for the period 2012–2020 to explore the influence of green finance on the ecologicalization of urban industrial structure.The empirical results show that green finance development significantly improves the ecologicalization level of urban industrial structure.In addition,it is found that green finance plays a stronger role in promoting the ecologicalization of industrial structure in economically developed regions than in economically underdeveloped regions2.The research results can provide a valuable policy reference for urban green financial market planning and green product innovation.

As Could We Assure Safety in Large-Scale Manufacturing of Nanoparticles for the Biomedical Use

Nanoparticles provide great advantages but also great risks. Risks associating with nanoparticles are the problem of all technologies, but they increase in many times in nanotechnologies. Adequate methods of outgoing production inspection are necessary to solve the problem of risks, and the inspection must be based on the safety standard. Existing safety standard results from a principle of “maximum permissible concentrations or MPC”. This principle is not applicable to nanoparticles, but a safety standard reflecting risks inherent in nanoparticles doesn’t exist. Essence of the risks is illustrated by the example from pharmacology, since its safety assurance is conceptually based on MPC and it has already come against this problem. Possible formula of safety standard for nanoparticles is reflected in many publications, but conventional inspection methods cannot provide its realization, and this gap is an obstacle to assumption of similar formulas. Therefore the development of nanoparticle industry as a whole (also development of the pharmacology in particular) is impossible without the creation of an adequate inspection method. There are suggested new inspection methods founded on the new physical principle and satisfying to the adequate safety standard for nanoparticles. These methods demonstrate that creation of the adequate safety standard and the outgoing production inspection in a large-scale manufacturing of nanoparticles are the solvable problems. However there is a great distance between the physical principle and its hardware realization, and a transition from the principle to the hardware demands great intellectual and material costs. Therefore it is desirable to call attention of the public at large to the necessity of urgent expansions of investigations associated with outgoing inspections in nanoparticles technologies. It is necessary also to attract attention, first, of representatives of state structures controlling approvals of the adequate safety standard to this problem, since it is impossible to compel producers providing the safety without the similar standard, and, second, of leaders of pharmacological industry, since their industry already entered into the nanotechnology era, and they have taken an interest in a forthcoming development of inspection methods.

Reflection and Study on the Transfer of International Manufacturing Industries and Chinese Sustainable Development

Ever since the 1960s, especially 1980s, under the background of quickening pace of economic globalization and the regional division of labor around the world, the transfer of manufacturing industries among countries and areas gets great momentum and impetus. During 20-plus years in which China has adopted the policy of opening-up and reforming, our country has played an active role in taking part in the transfer of manufacturing industries. It advances the structural change of national manufacturing industries, accelerates national industrialism and promotes the comprehensive development of regional economics. In this paper, the author makes some initial study on the regularity of transfer of International manufacturing industries, discusses the profound impact of such shift on our national resources, environment, economics and society, and also proposes corresponding suggestions on how to implement the strategy of sustainable development in the process of the shift.

生态文明背景下OFDI与自主创新对我国产业结构绿色化的影响研究

本文基于污染天堂假设、现代创新和梯度理论,构建OFDI与自主创新对我国产业结构绿色化影响的面板数据模型,利用全国30个地区2003—2020年的数据,运用系统GMM法对模型进行实证检验。结果发现:OFDI能显著提升我国产业结构绿色化水平,并有效抑制了自主创新对产业结构绿色化的阻碍作用;东部地区OFDI对产业结构绿色化的促进作用明显,但自主创新对其的促进作用不显著;中西部地区自主创新对产业结构绿色化的促进作用明显,但OFDI对其促进作用却不显著。最后,结合研究结论与实际,有针对性提出了提高我国产业结构绿色化水平的建议。

A Review and Outlook of the Centennial of China’s Industrialization:The CPC’s Industrialization Strategy

Industrialization has been a dream for the Chinese nation since modern history and a goal of the Communist Party of China(CPC).Ever since its founding in 1921,the CPC has been exploring a path for China’s industrial development based on socialism as the political and institutional premise.Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949,the Chinese people have established a socialist system under the CPC’s leadership and carried out industrial development for over seven decades in the world’s most populous country,blazing a new trail of socialist industrialization with Chinese characteristics.Under the CPC’s leadership,China established an independent and complete industrial system in less than three decades from 1949 to 1978,and developed into the world’s largest industrial power with the most complete industrial sectors in over three decades from 1979 to 2016.In its future industrial development,China aims to complete new-type industrialization by 2035,build a modern economic system,reach the level of moderately developed countries in terms of GDP per capita,and develop into a major world industrial power by the centennial of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2049.

Carbon Emission Trends of Manufacturing and Influencing Factors in Jilin Province,China

This paper constructed a carbon emission identity based on five factors： industrial activity, industrial structure, energy inten- sity, energy mix and carbon emission parameter, and analyzed manufacturing carbon emission trends in Jilin Province at subdivided industrial level through Log-Mean Divisia Index （LMDI） method. Results showed that manufacturing carbon emissions of Jilin Province increased 1.304 ~ 107t by 66% between 2004 and 2010. However, 2012 was a remarkable year in which carbon emissions decreased compared with 2011, the first fall since 2004. Industrial activity was the most important factor for the increase of carbon emissions, while energy intensity had the greatest impact on inhibiting carbon emission growth. Despite the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions fluctuated, its overall trend inhibited carbon emission growth. Further, influences of industrial structure became gradually stronger and surpassed energy intensity in the period 2009-2010. These results conclude that reducing energy intensity is still the main way for carbon emission reduction in Jilin Province, hut industrial structure can not be ignored and it has great potential. Based on the analyses, the way of manufacturing industrial structure adjustment for Jilin Province is put forward.

产业结构优化升级、OFDI与区域绿色发展效率提升

从理论上分析了产业结构优化升级影响绿色发展效率,以及通过OFDI的中介效应影响绿色发展效率的作用机理,使用2003—2017年我国30个省区市的面板数据构建计量模型进行了实证检验,得出结论:产业结构优化升级能够促进绿色发展效率的提升,产业结构升级对绿色发展效率的促进作用弱于产业结构优化。产业结构优化升级是我国OFDI的重要动因。产业结构优化升级能够通过OFDI的中介作用促进绿色发展效率提升,OFDI具有提升母国绿色发展效率的效应。

中国数字经济与制造业绿色发展耦合协调研究

文章基于数字经济与制造业绿色发展的耦合机理,构建评价指标体系,运用熵权法测度了中国30个省份2013—2021年的数字经济发展水平与制造业绿色发展水平,利用耦合协调度模型探讨数字经济与制造业绿色发展的时空演化特征,利用障碍度模型分析耦合协调进程中的障碍因子,并实证分析了两者耦合协调的影响因素。研究发现:中国数字经济与制造业绿色发展存在较强的耦合互动关系,耦合协调度呈上升趋势,但整体水平不高且局部不均衡;数字经济与制造业绿色发展受到经济发展水平、政府参与程度、城镇化发展的正向影响。

绿色金融能否赋能中国式现代化产业体系建设?——基于制造业服务化视角

基于2002-2021年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,从制造业服务化视角入手尝试探讨绿色金融对我国现代化产业体系建设的赋能效应。研究发现,绿色金融对制造业服务化影响呈现先抑制后促进的U形关系,且表现出要素禀赋、产业结构以及市场化程度的异质性特征。同时,受绿色技术创新和环境规制调节效应的影响,绿色金融可提前跨越拐点,赋能制造业服务化。鉴于此,应有重点、分阶段及分区域地加快推进绿色金融发展,推动企业绿色技术创新,并加强环境规制,助力绿色金融赋能中国式现代化产业体系建设。

数字化视阈下航运业企业发展方式绿色化转型

党的二十大报告对数字强国和发展方式绿色化转型提出明确要求。航运业企业属于高能耗行业,也是实施数字化的重点部门,基于A股航运业上市公司面板数据,在测度航运业企业数字化程度和绿色化水平的基础上,分析数字化对航运业企业绿色化转型的影响及异质性效应,引入绿色创新和产业结构升级作为中介变量考察影响的传导机制。实证研究发现:数字化能够显著促进航运业企业绿色化发展,数字化对不同地区的航运业企业绿色化发展有不同影响。进一步的机制检验表明,数字化通过促进绿色创新、推动产业结构升级而影响航运业企业绿色化发展。最后从鼓励航运业企业大力推行数字化、引导数字化和绿色化融合发展、根据企业地区特点采取不同策略等方面提出政策建议。

数字经济对制造业技术创新绩效的影响

选取2010—2021年省级数字经济指数以及沪深A股制造业上市企业数据,实证检验数字经济与制造业技术创新绩效的关系。研究发现:数字经济能显著提高制造业技术创新绩效,且该结论在经过增加控制变量、缩尾处理等一系列检验后依然稳健;数字经济能通过产业结构升级,间接提升制造业技术创新绩效。异质性检验结果显示,在地区发展方面,数字经济对东部地区、一线城市内制造业企业技术创新绩效的促进作用更强;在企业性质方面,数字经济对成熟期、国有、高密度人力资本型、资本密集型制造业技术创新绩效的促进作用更大。据此,提出加强数字经济基础建设、推进制造业产业结构数字化升级、实施差异化数字经济发展策略的建议,以充分发挥数字经济的促进效应,提升制造业技术创新绩效。

数字产业与制造业协同集聚对企业绿色创新的影响研究

基于马歇尔集聚经济理论,依据中国工业企业数据和城市面板数据,运用固定效应模型,考量数字产业与制造业协同集聚对企业绿色创新的影响。结果显示,数字产业与制造业协同集聚通过人力资本外部性、知识溢出效应机制促进企业绿色创新,但规模经济效应机制不成立,且该结果在更换核心变量指标、考虑极端值、替换固定效应及内生性问题后依然稳健。鉴于此,应因地施策,加快推动区域内数字产业与制造业协同集聚,提升软环境建设水平,促进企业绿色化发展。

虚拟集聚能够促进制造业绿色高质量发展吗?

虚拟集聚是新一代信息技术与实体经济深度融合的空间组织新形态,是实现制造业绿色高质量发展的新路径。文章基于2012—2022年我国30个省域面板数据,构建制造业绿色高质量发展和虚拟集聚指标体系,实证检验虚拟集聚对制造业绿色高质量发展的影响。研究发现:虚拟集聚能够有效促进制造业绿色高质量发展;虚拟集聚对制造业绿色高质量发展的影响存在区域、子维度和虚拟集聚水平异质性;虚拟集聚对制造业绿色高质量发展的影响存在负向空间溢出效应。研究结论为促进制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展提供了有益的政策启示。

2023年中国炼油工业发展状况及展望

2023年,中国炼油能力增长继续放缓,新增炼油能力1200万吨/年,总能力升至9.36亿吨/年,装置结构优化调整持续推进。2023年我国成品油需求快速反弹、市场整顿持续推进等利好因素推动炼油行业生产明显好转,多项主要生产经营指标显著回升。国家政策为我国炼油行业高质量发展指明了路径,炼油企业持续推进绿色、低碳、数字化、智能化发展,并积极“走出去、引进来”,扩大合作。展望未来,2024年中国炼油能力将继续较快增长,但能力峰值基本显现,预计炼油能力峰值将在2027年左右出现;“十五五”期间,我国炼油能力过剩的压力有一定缓解,但不能掉以轻心,淘汰落后产能、调整产品结构、节能降碳等转型升级措施需长期推进。