Fault Prediction Based on Dynamic Model and Grey Time Series Model in Chemical Processes

This paper combines grey model with time series model and then dynamic model for rapid and in-depth fault prediction in chemical processes. Two combination methods are proposed. In one method, historical data is introduced into the grey time series model to predict future trend of measurement values in chemical process. These predicted measurements are then used in the dynamic model to retrieve the change of fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. In another method, historical data is introduced directly into the dynamic model to retrieve historical fault parameters by model based diagnosis algorithm. These parameters are then predicted by the grey time series model. The two methods are applied to a gravity tank example. The case study demonstrates that the first method is more accurate for fault prediction.

Dynamic grey model of verification cycle and lifecycle of measuring instrument and its application

Two dynamic grey models DGM (1, 1) for the verification cycle and the lifecycle of measuring instrument based on time sequence and frequency sequence were set up, according to the statistical feature of examination data and weighting method. By a specific case, i.e. vernier caliper, it is proved that the fit precision and forecast precision of the models are much higher, the cycles are obviously different under different working conditions, and the forecast result of the frequency sequence model is better than that of the time sequence model. Combining dynamic grey model and auto-manufacturing case the controlling and information subsystems of verification cycle and the lifecycle based on information integration, multi-sensor controlling and management controlling were given. The models can be used in production process to help enterprise reduce error, cost and flaw.

DYNAMIC PREDICION OF FOREST FUEL LOADS BY GREY VERHULST MODEL

The variation of fuel loads after a fire for three forest types, phododendron -Larix gmetinii forest, herb--Larix gmelinii forest and herb--Betula plalyphlla forest , in the northern forest area of Daxing’anling region was discussed. The dynamic models were developed by gray theory for estimating the fuels loads of arbor- shrub, herbs’ grass, litter, and semi-decomposed litter, inflamma ble fuel and the total fuels in each forest type. After a fire, the inflammabIe fuel loads in phododendron-- Larix gmelinii forest and in the herb- - Betula platyphlla fores was estimated at 10.958 t/hm2and 10.473 t/hm2 respectively’ by 13 years later. and that was 12.297 t/hm 2 in herb--Larix gmeliniiforest by 7 years later.. It was predicated that a big fire may occur after 10 years based on inflammable fuel biomass accumulated.

Prediction of leaching rate in heap leaching process by grey dynamic model GDM(1,1)

The method of developing GM（1,1） model is extended on the basis of grey system theory. Conditions for the transfer function that improve smoothness of original data sequence and decrease the revert error are given. The grey dynamic model is first combined with the transfer function to predict the leaching rate in heap leaching process. The results show that high prediction accuracy can be expected by using the proposed method. This provides a new approach to realize prediction and control of the future behavior of leaching kinetics.

AXIAL HEAT CONDUCTION MODEL TO PREDICT MAXIMUM HEAT REMOVE OF MINIATURE HEAT PIPE BASED ON GREY MODEL THEORY

Computer chip is always accompanied by the increase of heat dissipation and miniaturization. The miniature heat pipes are widely used in notebook computer to resolve the heat dissipation problems. Maximum heat removed model of miniature heat pipes building by grey model is presented. In order to know the foundation for modeling, the smooth grade of error examination is inquired and the accuracy of grey relational grade is verified. The model can be used to select a suitable heat pipes to solve electric heat problems in the future. Final results show that the grey model only needs four experiment data and its error value is less than 10%, further, it is better than computational fluid dynamics （CFD） model.

A dynamic influence model of social network hotspot based on grey system

The outbreak of hotspot in social network may contain complex dynamic genesis. Using user behavior data from hotspots in social network, we study how different user groups play different roles for a hotspot topic. Firstly, by analyzing users' behavior records, we mine group situation that promotes the hotspot.Several major attributions in a hotspot outbreak, such as individual, peer and group triggers, are defined formally according to the view-point of social identity, social interaction, retweet depth and opinion leader. Secondly,for the problem of the uneven and sparse data in each stage of hotspot topic's life cycle, we propose a dynamic influence model based on grey system to formalize the effect of different groups. Then the process of hotspot evolution driven by distinct crowd is showed dynamically. The experimental result confirms that the model is able not only to qualify users' influence on a hotspot topic but also to predict effectively an upcoming change in a hotspot topic.

Grey Dynamic Model,Forecasting & Comparison on the Development Trend in Track & Field Sports of Asia & the World

By establishing grey dynamic model and adopting its method, this essay makes forecast and comparison on the developing trend in track and field sports of Asia and the world. To higher the model’s precise, some sequential data are processed by slide mean value, a Maclourin Exponsion is made to some exponents of less adaptable response function and acceptance or rejection is made according to the fitting mode of the number series and their development. In the quatitative analysis, the first locus of the developing coefficient of the model in the sports field is the main basis. The analysis indicates that women’s and men’s field sports in Asia are developing respectively much faster, a little faster than that of the world, but men’s track sports in Asia are progressing paralled to that of the world, and women’s track in Asia remains behind.

Analysis on the Change of Vegetation Cover and Its Prediction Method——A Case Study in Eastern Jilin

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method. [Method] The NDVl was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation coverage changes of the study area in different time period under the GIS platform, with the aim to reveal the spatial distribution rules of the vegetation cover in Eastern Jilin Province during the recent 10 years. The Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were used to predict the vegetation cover change trend in Eastern Jilin Province. [Result] The vegetation cover increased a little, but staying stable in general. The regions with great changes were mainly around the lake and river. The prediction results of Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were consistent with the observed measurement. [Conclusion] This study provided referential basis for the effective protection of the vegetation coverage in mountainous forest, and important reference value for the scientific decision-making on the forest construction planning in Jilin Province as well as in China and sustainable development of social economy.

安徽省棉花品种产量与纤维品质发展趋势预测的研究

本文以１９８２～１９９２年安徽省棉花品种区域试验的年度平均皮棉产量及其组分和纤维品质指标为资料，建立ＧＭ（１．１）动态模型，对棉花新品种产量与纤维品质的发展趋势进行研究。结果表明，皮棉产量呈上升趋势，到２０００年可达１４７９．３６ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，产量组分中单株铃数、衣分呈上升趋势，单铃重呈下降趋势，分别可达２３．０５８个、４２．０５１％和４．５９ｇ。在纤维品质指标中，主体长度和细度均呈上升趋势，单强、断裂长度和成熟系数呈下降趋势，到２０００年分别可达３２．２８２ｍｍ、５７７８ｍ／ｇ、３．５３９ｇ、２１．３２６ｋｍ和１．４７ｇ。、－０．３１２和０．５５８。２．２纤维品质指标的发展趋势分析纤维品质指标主体长度、单强、细度、断裂长度以及成熟系数的ＧＭ（１．１）模型及精度（表４）。由表４所得模型预测值与实际值基本吻合，经检验，模型精度除断裂长度为三级外，其它均达一、二级标准，预测值可靠。利用表４模型预测１９９５、２０００年纤维品质指标，并以１９９１年为基数计算到２０００年安徽省棉花新品种纤维品质指标平均年递增、递减百分率（表５）。表５结果表明，９０年代棉花新品种纤维品质指标的发展趋势是：主体长度和细度升高，预计到２０?

几种作物产量预测模型及其特点分析

作物产量预测是农业科学研究的一个重要内容,是农业决策的重要依据,不少学者进行了大量研究并建立了许多预测模型。简述了常用的GM(1.1)灰色预测模型、趋势—随机预测模型、神经网络预测模型和组合预测模型的原理、方法,并就应用情况及其特点进行了简要评价,为人们的选择性使用提供依据。

基于改进的GM(1,1)模型的上海市垃圾产量的预测

GM（1,1）模型是上海市垃圾产量预测的一种有效的方法,但序列的随机波动性难以在GM（1,1）模型得到反映。利用灰色震荡序列GM{1,1}模型,对上海市2000年~2008年垃圾产量进行预测,预测结果表明,此方法能够反映出上海市垃圾产量所具有的波动性特性,得到更高的预测精度。

应用灰色动态GM(1,1)数学模型进行临床血液采集量预测

目的探讨应用灰色动态 GM（1，1）模型，分析和预测常态下承德市中心血站血液品种采集数量的动态发展变化趋势，根据模型的应用效果做出定量预测。方法根据承德市中心血站2004年1月～2013年12月的全血（400 ml）（人次）、单采少白血小板（人份）血液品种年采集数据，将2013年预测值与实际值比较，检验模型的预测能力，同时分析2014～2016年血液采集数量。结果以上两类血液采集品种数量灰色动态 GM（1，1）模型的 Y（t）后验差比（均方差）C均＜0.35，小误差概率P值均为1。精度均为优，用于血液采集量预测的效果好。结论承德市中心血站以上两类血液采集品种数量呈逐渐增高趋势。灰色系统一阶模型 GM（1，1）作为一种新型预测模型，能够在常态下合理预测采供血系统血液采集量。

Evaluation of global navigation satellite system spoofing efficacy

The spoofing capability of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)represents an important confrontational capability for navigation security,and the success of planned missions may depend on the effective evaluation of spoofing capability.However,current evaluation systems face challenges arising from the irrationality of previous weighting methods,inapplicability of the conventional multi-attribute decision-making method and uncertainty existing in evaluation.To solve these difficulties,considering the validity of the obtained results,an evaluation method based on the game aggregated weight model and a joint approach involving the grey relational analysis and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(GRA-TOPSIS)are firstly proposed to determine the optimal scheme.Static and dynamic evaluation results under different schemes are then obtained via a fuzzy comprehensive assessment and an improved dynamic game method,to prioritize the deceptive efficacy of the equipment accurately and make pointed improvement for its core performance.The use of judging indicators,including Spearman rank correlation coefficient and so on,combined with obtained evaluation results,demonstrates the superiority of the proposed method and the optimal scheme by the horizontal comparison of different methods and vertical comparison of evaluation results.Finally,the results of field measurements and simulation tests show that the proposed method can better overcome the difficulties of existing methods and realize the effective evaluation.

南京市计划免疫(EPI)效果定量分析

目的 评价全面实行儿童计划免疫的社会效益。方法 应用灰色GM(1.1)模型滚动预测了如果不实行计划免疫南京市1982～1998年间的每种计划免疫相关疾病的各年发病率,并与相应年度的实际发病率进行比较,从而计算出相应的接种疫苗实际保护的人数。结果 ①接种疫苗可以消除暴发疫情的出现并可以降低散发时的发病率;②南京市1982～1998年间实行计划免疫接种(服用)流行性乙型脑炎、流行性脑脊髓膜炎、麻疹、百日咳、白喉、脊髓灰质炎的相应疫苗分别保护了7 169名儿童免患流行性乙型脑炎、9 211名儿童免患流行性脑脊髓膜炎、146 911名儿童免患麻疹、14 663名儿童免患百日咳、149名儿童免患白喉、211名儿童免患脊髓灰质炎。结论 实行计划免疫是非常必要的,社会学效果是非常显著的。