Prediction of Total Output Value of Construction Industry in Jiangxi Province Based on Grey Prediction Model

In order to realize the accurate prediction of the total output value of construction industry in the future,the grey prediction model is used to compare the measured value with the predicted value from 2012 to 2021,and based on the existing data,the total output value of construction industry in Jiangxi Province in the next five years is predicted.The results show that the grey prediction model has a good prediction effect,and the error between the predicted value and the measured value is within 14%,which provides a basis for policy adjustment and resource optimization.

Equivalency and unbiasedness of grey prediction models

In order to deeply research the structure discrepancy and modeling mechanism among different grey prediction models, the equivalence and unbiasedness of grey prediction models are analyzed and verified. The results show that all the grey prediction models that are strictly derived from x^（0）（k） ＋az^（1）（k） = b have the identical model structure and simulation precision. Moreover, the unbiased simulation for the homogeneous exponential sequence can be accomplished. However, the models derived from dx^（1）/dt ＋ ax^（1）= b are only close to those derived from x^（0）（k） ＋ az^（1）（k） = b provided that ｜a｜ has to satisfy｜a｜ 0.1; neither could the unbiased simulation for the homogeneous exponential sequence be achieved. The above conclusions are proved and verified through some theorems and examples.

Prediction model of interval grey number based on DGM(1,1)

In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.By mining the geometric features of interval grey number sequences on a two-dimensional surface,all the interval grey numbers are converted into real numbers by means of certain algorithm,and then the prediction model is established based on those real number sequences.The entire process avoids the algebraic operations of grey number,and the prediction problem of interval grey number is usefully solved.Ultimately,through an example＇s program simulation,the validity and practicability of this novel model are verified.

Fractional derivative multivariable grey model for nonstationary sequence and its application

Most of the existing multivariable grey models are based on the 1-order derivative and 1-order accumulation, which makes the parameters unable to be adjusted according to the data characteristics of the actual problems. The results about fractional derivative multivariable grey models are very few at present. In this paper, a multivariable Caputo fractional derivative grey model with convolution integral CFGMC(q, N) is proposed. First, the Caputo fractional difference is used to discretize the model, and the least square method is used to solve the parameters. The orders of accumulations and differential equations are determined by using particle swarm optimization(PSO). Then, the analytical solution of the model is obtained by using the Laplace transform, and the convergence and divergence of series in analytical solutions are also discussed. Finally, the CFGMC(q, N) model is used to predict the municipal solid waste(MSW). Compared with other competition models, the model has the best prediction effect. This study enriches the model form of the multivariable grey model, expands the scope of application, and provides a new idea for the development of fractional derivative grey model.

Grey Prediction Fuzzy Control of the Target Tracking System in a Robot Weapon

Grey modeling can be used to predict the behavioral development of a system and find out the lead control values of the system. By using fuzzy inference, PID parameters can be adjusted on line by the fuzzy controller with PID parameters self-tuning. According to the characteristics of target tracking system in a robot weapon, grey prediction theory and fuzzy PID control ideas are combined. A grey prediction mathematical model is constructed and a fuzzy PID controller with grey prediction was developed. Simulation result shows fuzzy PID control algorithm with grey prediction is an efficient method that can improve the control equality and robustness of traditional PID control and fuzzy PID control, and has much better performance for target tracking.

A new grey predictionmodel for forecasting the automobiles ownership in China

The average relative simulation and prediction percentage errors of the new model are only 0.092%and 3.023%,respectively.The simulation and prediction errors obtained from the classical GM(1,1)and the DGM(1,1)models are,respectively,2.064%and 6.980%in the first case,and 1.942%and 7.360%in the second.The findings show that the GM(1,1,4)model has the best performance,which confirms the effectiveness of the structure improvement.The new model can enhance the smoothness of the background value and weaken the effects of extreme values in the raw sequence in the model’s performance.Therefore,the simulation and prediction performances of the GM(1,1,4)model are better than those of the traditional grey prediction models.The prediction show that the ownership for automobiles in China will grow rapidly in future.Findings could help the government in formulating adjustments to the industrial structures,and facilitate making rational yield plans for automobile firms.