Does innovative city pilot policy promote urban green growth in China?An analysis of green total factor productivity,2005-2020

The innovative city pilot policy(ICPP)is an essential manifestation of China’s construction of an innovative and green-driven development country.We incorporated urban green total factor productivity(GTFP)growth into the evaluation of ICPP.Based on the panel data of 223 cities in China from 2005 to 2020,we used the difference-in-differences model to empirically assess the influence and mechanism of the ICPP on urban GTFP growth.The main results show that(i)The ICPP has maintained an effectively fluctuating promotion on urban GTFP growth,mainly manifested in the urban green technological progress improvement.(ii)The ICPP has urban heterogeneity in promoting GTFP growth in pilot cities,mainly affecting key cities such as provincial capitals.(iii)The interaction between the agglomeration of producer services and the ICPP inhibits GTFP growth in pilot cities.

Technical Components of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Malaysian Manufacturing Industry

This article attempts to disaggregate and explore the components of TFP growth that contribute to changes in output, scale of production, and allocative efficiency and technical efficiency of the Malaysian manufacturing sector. The total factor productivity (TFP) concept defined as total output per unit of all inputs used in the production of an industry has gained a prominent place in academia. The investigation on TFP growth is obviously useful for identifying sources of output growth in the development of an industry. The TFP growth is often interchangeably understood as the technical progress or changes in technology as the sole contributor to economic development. Nonetheless there are other factors contributing to its substance. Knowledge on these technical changes would help decision makers to realize the strengths and weaknesses that contribute to the growth and development of an industry. Alternatively this research would be more beneficial in the case of cross-industry or cross-country comparative studies in order to plan for developmental goal. In such a case a model industry or country can be chosen that exhibits special growth features.

Growth in Total Factor Productivity of Shandong Province for Environmental Constraints

This paper analyzed the total factor productivity of Shandong Province and its impact on the local economic environment through Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index. The results of the paper were included as follows. Without consideration of the environmental constraints, Index M of the total factor productivity of Shandong Province from high to low was Heze, Jinan, Qingdao, Weihai, Dongying, Zaozhuang, Jining, Tai'an, Dezhou, Liaocheng, Yantai, Zibo, Weifang, Linyi, Binzhou, Rizhao, Laiwu, among which Index M of Linyi, Binzhou, Rizhao, Laiwuwere were less than 1; taking the environmental constraints into account, Index ML of the total factor productivity of Shandong Province was reduced, from high to low was Jinan, Qingdao, Weihai, Yantai, Heze, Liaocheng, Tai'an, Weifang, Jining, Linyi, Zibo, Dongying, Zaozhuang, Rizhao, Laiwu, Binzhou, Dezhou, among which Index ML of 9 cities behind Jining were less than 1. In terms of the development mode, Jinan, Qingdao, Tai'an, Weihai, Jining and Heze were resource-conserving and environment-friendly cities; Dongying and Zaozhuang were resourceconserving and environment-polluted cities; Liaocheng, Linyi, Weifang and Yantai were resource-wasted and environment-friendly cities; Binzhou, Dezhou, Laiwu, Rizhao and Zibo were resource-wasted and environment-pol uted cities.

Transition from Demographic Dividend to Reform Dividend:——Simulation of China's Potential Growth Rate

Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.

Creative Industries Agglomeration,Regional Innovation and Productivity Growth in China

This paper falls into the broad area of economic geography and economics of creativity,and it presents an alternative approach to explain why total factor productivity(TFP)growth is different across China′s regions.It establishes an empirical model to estimate the spatial agglomeration effects of creative industries on regional TFP growth,using China′s provincial panel data during the period of 2003 to 2010.We found that the creative industries agglomeration(CIA)has significant and positive impact on regional TFP growth.The result also implies that the CIA can facilitate regional TFP growth through promoting regional innovation instead of improving regional efficiency.Therefore,we argue that policy makers should take some measures to retain and establish more creative zones.

Productivity Growth in China's Agriculture During 1985-2010

This paper made an empirical analysis of China＇s agricultural growth path and influential factors using the province-level panel data of agricultural inputs and outputs during 1985-2010.The findings indicate that the increase in agricultural inputs and TFP contributed 40.6 and 55.2% to the agricultural output growth,respectively;China＇s agriculture had jumped out of the pattern which output growth was mainly driven by increasing input.Of the total inputs,chemical fertilizer had the most important contribution to the output growth,followed by mechanical inputs.The contribution of land and labor was negative.China＇s agricultural output growth belonged to the type of induced technology innovation.China＇s agricultural TFP growth had characteristics of fluctuations over time and unbalanced between regions,but the gap between the eastern,the middle,and the western regions has been narrowed.

The role of R&D and economic policy uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s economic growth

In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.

The Sources of Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African IDB Member Countries

The economic growth in Sub-Sahara African （SSA） IDB member countries has been encouraging over the last decade; however, it is still not high enough to enable these countries to overcome the persistent poverty. There is thus a need to raise substantially real GDP growth rates on a sustained basis, both through the productivity channel and factor accumulation such as labor and capital. This study focuses on ＂the source of economic growth in SSA IDB member countries＂ with the objective of identifying the main driving factors of economic growth in the region using the growth accounting framework and extending the existing analysis both by country and time coverage. The paper is expected to be useful for the policymakers in the region to have a clear picture on the main sources of growth, and thus help them in identifying strategic reform areas of intervention in line with the most binding factors of growth. The data used in this study cover 20 Sub-Sahara African countries covering the period 1990-2012. The data set includes real GDP, labor force, and capital stock. The source of data is the various version of the World Economic Outlook, IMF. Capital stock is estimated using perpetual inventory method and the base year is 1970. In estimating growth accounting model, a translog production function is applied using panel data and random effects model. Empirical results show that the capital accumulation is the most important individual factor in GDP growth （52%） followed by workforce accumulation （39%） while total factor productivity （TFP） accounts for meagre 8%. This suggests that, on average, real GDP growth in Sub-Sahara African countries was driven primarily by factor accumulation with a low level of TFP. In addition, the elasticity of labor was lower than that of capital indicating that the labor played very little role in GDP growth most likely due to unskilled labor force or mismatch of labor skills with the production process. Furthermore, this also adversely affects both the TFP growth and the share of capital growth to the GDP growth. The results indicate that the critical constraint to the economic growth appears to be poor labor skills that lead to both low labor productivity and under-utilization of capital stock.

增值税减税能否提高制造业企业全要素生产率?--基于增值税税率下调事件的经验研究

深化税制改革是激发市场主体活力、加快制造业转型、实现经济高质量发展的重要路径。基于2016—2020年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,研究了2018年和2019年增值税税率下调对制造业企业全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,增值税减税提高了制造业企业的全要素生产率。异质性分析结果显示,对于市场竞争地位高、国有产权、处于成熟期以及高市场化地区的企业而言,增值税减税对全要素生产率的提升效应显著。渠道分析表明,研发投入、人力资本投入以及资本配置效率是增值税减税影响企业全要素生产率的主要渠道。因此,政府部门应继续深化增值税改革,缩小制造业与其他行业的税率差异,切实减轻制造业企业税收负担,同时应加大对民营、初创等弱势企业的财政扶持力度,全面提高各类企业的全要素生产率。

An empirical analysis of the IT industry's impacts on economic growth in China

With its increasing contributions to economic growth and its important role in optimizing industrial structure and stabilizing overall prices, China's information technology (IT) industry has grown into a dominant industrial sector in promoting the country's economic development. Its high level of total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates makes China's technical advances rely more and more on IT innovation and application. Under the current global economic crisis, the industry will remain an important source for economic growth.

我国省际全要素生产率的对比分析研究

传统的按照索洛方法计算的广义技术进步率并不是本来意义上的全要素生产率。因此,本文重新构建全要素生产率的测度框架。一是明确定义全要素生产率,即一定时期内,按照现有的技术条件和产业结构比例,每投入一个单位的全部生产要素所能够带来的最终产出。二是利用有关统计数据估算省级层面有效资本存量,并分别构建各省份合适的计量模型估计其在不同发展阶段的要素产出弹性系数,进而测度各省份全要素生产率以及因全要素生产率变动所带来的经济增长率(简称全要素经济增长率)。实证分析结果表明,一般情况下,经济越发达省份的全要素生产率也越高,但是经济发达省份的全要素经济增长率并不一定高于经济欠发达省份。该结果不仅与常识相符,而且也合理解释了各省份生产效率与技术进步之间的联系与区别,验证了本文所提出的测度框架及方法的可行性。

提升全要素生产率与促进经济高质量增长

改革开放以来,我国人均国内生产总值与高收入国家水平的距离进一步缩小,显示我国将会较快迈入中高收入国家行列。在新的发展阶段,我国需要完整、准确和全面贯彻新发展理念,加快构建新发展格局,保持经济高质量增长。经济的高质量增长需要质的有效提升和量的合理增长。本文比较分析了世界各国在人均国内生产总值超过1万美元后的经济增长特征,指出此时影响不同国家经济增长速度的最重要因素是全要素生产率的提升。基于此,本文提出了提升全要素生产率以促进我国经济高质量增长的实际途径和政策建议。

中国人口变化趋势及经济潜在增长率——兼论延迟退休的影响

基于生产函数法的估测结果显示,2035年之前中国潜在经济增长率将处于下行趋势,2021—2025年平均为5.2%左右,2026—2030年平均为5.1%左右,2031—2035年平均为4.7%左右。潜在经济增长率下降的主要因素是,未来人口抚养比上升,导致固定资本形成率下降,进而固定资本存量增速放缓。未来就业人口数量减少,对潜在经济增长率有不利影响,但人力资本积累能在一定程度上弥补。情形分析结果显示,2035年之前人口出生率水平与经济潜在增长率呈相反关系,主要原因是,新出生人口在2035年前尚无法进入劳动力市场,反而会通过影响固定资本增速拖累经济潜在增长率。延迟退休对2025—2035年的经济增长有积极影响,以2024年9月13日公布的方案测算,年均提高潜在增长率约0.03个百分点。

理解全球通货膨胀分化:全要素生产率的视角

进入21世纪,全球主要经济体出现了通货膨胀分化的现象。通胀分化在2017年至2022年期间逐渐形成,并于2022年9月开始逐步进入缓和阶段。通胀分化前,2001—2017年期间,中国、英国、德国、美国和日本的全要素生产率均呈现正增长,累计增速介于3%至22%之间。2017年后全球通胀分化现象出现,在短期内,西方样本国家全要素生产率对核心通胀率的抑制作用呈现不同程度的弱化,各国核心通胀率随之上升,这些国家未来全要素生产率增长面临的不确定性加大。通胀分化的现象揭示了全要素生产率意义上的分化。与核心通胀率上升的西方样本国家相比,中国全要素生产率增长对核心通胀率抑制作用较强,中国未来全要素生产率增长更具确定性。面对通胀分化,在中国经济安全前提下,需要继续保持开放;开放是中国全要素生产率提高的推力,全要素生产率提升是中国价格稳定的长期保证。

考虑无形资产框架下全要素生产率对经济增长质量的贡献

在知识经济时代,无形资本被视为促进经济增长的重要决定因素。本文在对无形资产进行分类的基础上,估算了我国宏观层面的无形资产投资规模及无形资本存量,并将其引入增长核算模型,测算各类要素以及全要素生产率(TFP)对经济增长的贡献。研究得到以下结论:2003—2021年,我国无形资产投资规模增长快速,高于同时期的固定资产投资增速以及国内生产总值增速。从结构看,无形资产投资中创新资产占比最高,但其中的研究与试验发展支出还需要加强;计算机信息化资产和经济竞争力资产占比相对较低,尤其是经济竞争力资产中的员工人力资本和企业组织资本投资支出还有较大提升空间。从贡献率看,无形资本深化对经济增长质量的贡献率显著上升,近10年来贡献率上升近10个百分点;TFP对经济增长质量起到重要作用,在考虑无形资产要素后,TFP的贡献率有所下降,这表明以往TFP的测算可能被高估。

人工智能对高技术产业要素配置结构效应的影响

选取2001—2021年高技术产业数据,运用增长核算模型对高技术产业要素配置的“结构红利假说”进行检验,并利用TVP-VAR模型深入探索人工智能影响高技术产业要素配置结构效应。研究发现:高技术产业全要素生产率和技术效应呈现下降变动时存在要素配置结构红利;人工智能对高技术产业要素配置结构效应存在长期正向冲击响应;人工智能对金融发展存在倒“U”型关系,人工智能对人力资本发展存在“U”型关系。两者分别为释放高技术产业资本、劳动配置结构红利的中间传导渠道,但影响时期存在差异。对此,应推进人工智能发展进程,完善金融市场监管制度,加快人力资本积累,进一步释放高技术产业要素配置结构红利,促进形成新质生产力。

中国三大粮食作物产能提升的源泉

保障粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给始终是建设农业强国的头等大事。在新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升背景下,聚焦稻谷、小麦、玉米三大主要粮食作物,利用增长核算分析框架揭示中国三大主要粮食作物产能提升的源泉。研究发现:对于稻谷和小麦而言,全要素生产率提升是这两类作物产能提升的主要源泉,其对稻谷、小麦产能提升的贡献率分别达到85.39%、100.93%,拉动稻谷、小麦产能分别提升0.91%、2.39%。就玉米而言,党的十八大之前,土地是玉米产能提升的主要源泉,其贡献率达到64.13%,拉动玉米产能提升4.11%;党的十八大以来,全要素生产率成为玉米产能提升的主要源泉,其贡献率达到64.38%,拉动玉米产能提升1.27%。研究结果为粮食品种结构优化及粮食产量可持续增长提供重要参考。

市售益生菌剂产品活性检测及其模拟胃消化耐受性

以足够数量的活菌到达肠道等作用部位是益生菌发挥有益功效的前提,因此活菌数量和消化道耐受性是评价益生菌产品的2个重要指标。该研究的主要目的是评价市售益生菌剂产品的初始活性及胃消化耐受性,同时探究胃消化过程中不同生理因素对菌株活性的影响。首先使用流式细胞术测定样品的总菌和活菌含量,其次对样品进行不同条件的模拟消化实验,测定样品活菌总数并计算存活率。结果表明,15种样品的活菌含量均与标识值存在差异,但所有产品均符合国际及国内标准;模拟胃消化实验中胃液pH值为影响菌剂活性的主要因素,模拟消化转速和胃蛋白酶浓度为次要因素。相同的模拟胃消化实验中,不同产品的耐受性存在明显区别。该研究为制定相关标准及规范市场环境提供依据,对于消费者选择产品和生产者提升产品质量具有重要的指导意义。

数字经济对全要素生产率的影响研究——来自国家级大数据综合试验区的证据

基于国家级大数据综合试验区的准自然实验,运用2014—2019年280个地级市的面板数据,采用多期双重差分法实证检验数字经济对全要素生产率的影响。研究结果表明:数字经济显著提升了全要素生产率,这一结论在经过多种稳健性检验后仍然成立;中介效应检验表明,数字经济通过提高资源配置效率和促进技术创新来提升全要素生产率;异质性分析表明,数字经济对低资源禀赋城市、低数字经济发展水平城市以及智慧城市的全要素生产率具有促进作用,抑制高资源禀赋、高数字经济城市的全要素生产率,而对非智慧城市的作用则不明显。因此,应基于大数据综合试验区深度挖掘数字经济的直接作用与间接作用,同时采取差异化发展战略,培育壮大全要素生产率增长新动能。

中国区域农业生产用能、农业经济增长及农业能源碳排放关系研究——基于绿色全要素生产率视角

采用超效率SBM-GML模型对1990—2020年中国31个省份的农业绿色全要素生产率及其变化指数进行测算,通过农业产值增长率和绿色全要素生产率效率值将不同省份划分成四个区域,运用面板固定效应模型探究农业生产用能对农业经济增长的影响和区域异质性,应用面板门槛模型对农业经济增长与农业能源碳排放的关系进行分析。研究表明:(1)1990—2020年中国的绿色全要素生产率呈现缓慢上升趋势,其中技术进步是主要推动力,而技术效率指数增速为负。(2)全国及各区域农业生产用能与农业产出的相关系数均为正值,即生产用能的投入能够明显增加农业产出,但是产出增加的实现程度存在区域异质性。(3)我国农业经济增长和农业能源碳排放之间存在单一门槛效应,在门槛值前,二者正向关系较强;跨过门槛值后,二者正向关系减弱,呈现协调发展态势。据此,提出积极鼓励农业技术进步、全面提高农业技术效率、因地制宜优化农业生产用能结构、差异化选择农业绿色发展道路等政策建议。