China’s Proactive Fiscal Policy

In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.

Transition from Demographic Dividend to Reform Dividend:——Simulation of China's Potential Growth Rate

Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.

Water quality and growth of phytoplankton for the Yellow River estuary reservoirs-The phytoplankton growth potential in reservoirs

In this test,we used phytoplankton assay procedure to carry out determinations of phytoplankton growth potential and limiting nutrients in Gengjing reservoir.The test results revealed that,in Gengying reservoir waters,the phytoplankton growth potential of the autoclaved-filtrates and the filtrates are from 0.2 to 2.1 mg/L and from 0 to 1.0 mg/L,and in waterway waters,those of the autoclaved-filtrates and the filtrates are from 0 to 3.3 mg/L and from 0 to 2.2 mg/L.The phytoplankton growth potential of the autoclaved filtrates is approximately two times higher than those of the filtrates.When phosphorus is adjusted beyond 0.5 mg/L,the growth of the phytoplankton is especially very high.Moreover,the limiting concentration of the phosphorus for the growth of phytoplankton is in the range of 0.025 to 0.05 mg/L;the phytoplankton growth potential of the grit chamber sediment samples is higher than those of the waterway sediment.

Report on Screening Test of Dazhou Superior Ramie Germplasm Resources

[Objectives]To promote the development of the ramie industry in Dazhou City of Sichuan Province and provide a material basis for the breeding of new ramie varieties.[Methods]The Institute of Bast Fiber Crops of Dazhou Academy of Agricultural Sciences performed a screening test of excellent ramie germplasm resources from 2017 to 2019 to compare the growth,resistance,raw fiber yield and fiber fineness of the experimental materials.[Results]All the experimental materials showed strong growth potential,drought resistance and disease resistance.There were 8 kinds of resources with a fiber fineness greater than 2000 m/g,of which 3 kinds of resource materials had a fiber fineness greater than 2300 m/g;12 kinds of resources has the raw fiber yield exceeding the control and 10 kinds of resources had the raw fiber yield≥2000 kg/ha;3 kinds of resources met the requirements of the high-yield and high-quality indicators(fiber fineness exceeding 2000 m/g and raw fiber yield≥2000 kg/ha),they were BD0718,BD1614 and BYL2.[Conclusions]These high-quality ramie resources can provide a rich resource base for the breeding of new ramie varieties.

Evaluation of nutrient limitation in aquatic ecosystems with nitrogen fixing bacteria

There has always been a great need for simple and accurate bioassays for evaluating nutrient limitation in aquatic ecosystems. Whereas organic carbon is usually considered to be the limiting nutrient for microbial growth in many aquatic ecosystems, there are, however, many water sources that are limited by phosphorus or nitrogen. A method named ＂nitrogen fixing bacterial growth potential＂ （NFBGP） test, which is based on pre-culturing of autochthonous （target） microorganisms was described. The method was applied to evaluate phosphorus or nitrogen nutrient limitation in lake and sewage water samples using an isolate of the nitrogen fixing bacterium, Azorhizobium sp. WS6. The results corresponded well to those from the traditional algal growth potential （AGP） test and the bacterial regrowth potential （BRP） test, suggesting that the NFBGP test is a useful supplementary method for evaluating the limiting nutrient, especially phosphorus, in an aquatic environment.

Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China

As a result of the shrinking working age population （aged 15 to 59 years）, all factors that have driven China＇s rapid economic growth over the past 30years tend to diminish from 2010. The present paper estimates the average annual growth rate of potential output to be 7.2percent over the 12th Five-year Plan period and 6.1 percent over the 13th Five-year Plan period. Future sustainable growth requires furthering economic reform in related areas to enhance potential growth. This paper simulates two scenarios in which both an increase in labor force participation and improvement in total factor productivity can significantly enhance the potential GDP growth rate. Relevant policy implications are discussed.

Selection of water source for water transfer based on algal growth potential to prevent algal blooms

Water transfer is becoming a popular method for solving the problems of water quality deterioration and water level drawdown in lakes. However, the principle of choosing water sources for water transfer projects has mainly been based on the effects on water quality, which neglects the influence in the variation of phytoplankton community and the risk of algal blooms. In this study, algal growth potential(AGP) test was applied to predict changes in the phytoplankton community caused by water transfer projects. The feasibility of proposed water transfer sources(Baqing River and Jinsha River) was assessed through the changes in both water quality and phytoplankton community in Chenghai Lake, Southwest China. The results showed that the concentration of total nitrogen(TN) and total phosphorus(TP) in Chenghai Lake could be decreased to 0.52 mg/L and 0.02 mg/L respectively with the simulated water transfer source of Jinsha River. The algal cell density could be reduced by 60%, and the phytoplankton community would become relatively stable with the Jinsha River water transfer project, and the dominant species of Anabaena cylindrica evolved into Anabaenopsis arnoldii due to the species competition. However, the risk of algal blooms would be increased after the Baqing River water transfer project even with the improved water quality. Algae gained faster proliferation with the same dominant species in water transfer source. Therefore, water transfer projects should be assessed from not only the variation of water quality but also the risk of algal blooms.

Estimations on GDP growth in China’s“new normal”period

This paper studies China’s potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period,and estimates the potential growth rate from the perspectives of demographic dividends,capital stock,and total factor growth rates,according to the neoclassical growth equation.Meanwhile,based on China’s current situation,the following factors are also taken into account:(1)political level,which is the requirement for building a moderately prosperous society;(2)the potential demand from new urbanization in China;(3)constraints in China’s development,which are from resources,environment,and debt stress.Overall,the potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period is changing along with changes in demographic structure,capital endowment,environmental requirements,and other constraints.We believe that a reasonable economic growth rate in the“New Normal”period should be around 7.5%in 2014,with an average growth of 6.5%for the period of 2016-2020,and the trend will then continue downward.On the basis of our analysis,we make some suggestions regarding macro-control,social welfare policy,and relative reform measures.

Research on identification of potential knowledge growth points in information science

The scientific system’s complexity makes it impossible to solve social problems by a single discipline independently,and interdisciplinary knowledge cooperation and innovation become an indispensable research mode of modern science.Identifying the potential interdisciplinary knowledge association is the key to promoting interdisciplinary cooperation.In this paper,based on analyzing the growth points of science,"knowledge growth point"is defined as the growth point of science that produces new knowledge,and its fundamental attributes and evaluation indexes have been analyzed.In contrast,the"interdisciplinary knowledge growth point"is defined as the introduction of related interdisciplinary concepts,theories,techniques,and methods,to conduct integrated research of key knowledge points of active disciplines,to generate growth point of innovative knowledge,and analyze its related research status.The identification of"potential interdisciplinary knowledge growth points"is helpful to promote knowledge innovation.Therefore,it is intended to analyze the identification methods of the generation of key knowledge nodes of the element of disciplines and interdisciplinary related knowledge,and explore quantitative and qualitative consultation to identify potential interdisciplinary knowledge growth points.

Proactive Fiscal Policy:The New Logic of China's Practice

China’s proactive fiscal policy adheres to the development ideology centered around the people and differs from the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.It bears distinct Chinese characteristics and represents a significant macroeconomic governance policy innovation in China’s process of modernization.Despite the considerable differences between the perspectives of the Keynesian tradition and the non-Keynesian tradition,their policy objectives and methodological foundations are broadly similar,constituting the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.Currently,this logic is facing increasing practical challenges.In contrast,China’s proactive fiscal policy not only aims to restore supply-demand balance and potential growth levels but also emphasizes enhancing future potential growth rates,marking a transformation from the traditional Western logic to a new logic.It is essential to emphasize that under this new logic,forming a new fiscal policy paradigm requires a reevaluation of the nature and appropriate scale of fiscal deficits,the role and risk measurement standards of government debt,the space and effectiveness of reduction of taxes and administrative fees,demand management methods and priorities,as well as policy costs and efficiency,among other fundamental categories.

Haste Makes Waste： Policy Options Facing China after Reaching the Lewis Turning Point

This paper provides a framework for assessing the health of China＇s macro economy and the sustainability of economic growth by combining supply-side and demand-side factors and by considering their relationship at different stages of development. As the Chinese economy passed through its Lewis turning point, weakened supply-side factors caused its growth to slow. The increasing concern regarding the economic slowdown has induced both the central and local governments to implement various stimulus plans through instruments of macroeconomic, industrial and regional policies. By examining where the imbalances of the Chinese economy really lie and investigating the determinants of the current slowdown and of the enhancement of the potential growth rate, the present paper suggests that the best path of action for the Chinese Government is not to stimulate growth through demand-side factors but to increase the potential growth rate through reforms in certain key areas.

Impact of Climate Change on Maize Potential Productivity and the Potential Productivity Gap in Southwest China

The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China（SWC） are investigated in this paper.We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic,light-temperature,and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC,by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method.During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010,minimum temperature increased by 0.20℃ per decade（p 〈 0.01） across SWC.The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province.Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day^（-1） per decade（p 〈 0.01） and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC.Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha^（-1）per decade（p 〈 0.05）.Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased（p 〈 0.05） in the northeast of SWC,whereas they increased（p 〈 0.05） in the southwest of SWC.The gap between lighttemperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha^（-1）,with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC.Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24%of the light-temperature potential productivity,suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas.In particular,the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years.Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC.The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.

Quantifying golf course nitrogen use efficiency

Background:Previous studies have surveyed golf courses to determine nitrogen(N)fertilizer application rates on golf courses,but no previous studies have attempted to quantify how efficiently golf courses use nitrogen.Methods:This study tests the ability of the growth potential(GP)N Requirement model as a benchmarking tool to predict a target level of N use on 76 golf courses in 5 regions of the US(Midwest,Northeast,East Texas,Florida,Northwest)and 3 countries in Europe(Denmark,Norway,UK).Results:The ratio of the golf course-wide N application rate to the GP N requirement prediction(termed the nitrogen efficiency score or NES)was 0.27,indicating that golf courses used 73%less N than predicted by the model.As such,the GP N Requirement model needs to be recalibrated to predict N use on golf courses.This was achieved by adjusting the Nmax coefficient in the model.N rates on golf courses were widely variable both within and across regions.All regions had a coefficient of variation in N rates of 0.46 or greater.Conclusions:The high variation in N rates,which is largely unexplained by climate,economic factors,grass type,and soil type,may be indicative of inefficient N use in golf course management.