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基于危险理论的地震预测方法 被引量:5
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作者 甘颖 梁意文 +2 位作者 谭成予 周雯 吴晶晶 《计算机工程》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第1期278-283,共6页
采用机器学习算法进行地震预测存在过拟合且需要大量训练集的问题。为此,将危险理论引入地震预测的应用中,在分析大量地震历史源数据和结合领域专家经验知识的基础上,提出一种利用地震学获取特征指标的地震预测方法。通过Gutenberg-Rict... 采用机器学习算法进行地震预测存在过拟合且需要大量训练集的问题。为此,将危险理论引入地震预测的应用中,在分析大量地震历史源数据和结合领域专家经验知识的基础上,提出一种利用地震学获取特征指标的地震预测方法。通过Gutenberg-Ricthter规则、特征地震震级分布和近期地震预测研究的结论提取9个地震特征指标,采用具有动态性的危险理论预测未来一个月内发生大地震事件的概率。同时,通过分析四川省地震历史数据,应用危险理论对地震特征指标进行分析和预测,并与现有的地震预测方法 BP神经网络进行比较。实验结果表明,该方法的检查概率、准确率及R得分均高于BP神经网络,表明在采用较少的样本集时其可靠度更高。 展开更多
关键词 危险理论 地震预测 Gutenberg-richter规则 特征指标 BP神经网络
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A test on methods for MC estimation based on earthquake catalog 被引量:10
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作者 YiJian Zhou ShiYong Zhou JianCang Zhuang 《Earth and Planetary Physics》 2018年第2期150-162,共13页
This study tested five methods widely used in estimating the complete magnitudes(M_C) of earthquake catalogs. Using catalogs of observed earthquake properties, we test the performance of these five algorithms under se... This study tested five methods widely used in estimating the complete magnitudes(M_C) of earthquake catalogs. Using catalogs of observed earthquake properties, we test the performance of these five algorithms under several challenging conditions, such as small volume of events and spatial-temporal heterogeneity, in order to see whether the algorithms are stable and in agreement with known data. We find that the maximum curvature method(MAXC) has perfect stability, but will significantly underestimate M_C unless heterogeneity is absent. M_C estimated by the b-value stability method(MBS) requires many events to reach a stable result. Results from the goodness of fit method(GFT) were unstable when heterogeneity lowered the fitness level. The entire magnitude range method(EMR) is relatively stable in most conditions, and can reflect the change in M_C when heterogeneity exists, but when the incomplete part of the earthquake catalog is dismissed, this method fails. The median-based analysis of the segment slope method(MBASS) can tolerate small sample size, but is incapable of reflecting the missing degree of small events in aftershock sequences. In conditions where M_C changes rapidly, such as in aftershock sequences, observing the time sequence directly can give a precise estimation of the complete sub-catalog, but only when the number of events available for study is large enough can the MAXC, GFT, and MBS methods give a similarly reliable estimation. 展开更多
关键词 COMPLETE MAGNITUDE of an EARTHQUAKE CATALOG g-r law B-VALUE FMD
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