Ecosystem changes revealed by land cover in the three-river headwaters region of Qinghai,China(1990–2015)

The Three-River Headwaters Region(TRHR) of Qinghai Province, in the Tibetan Plateau of China, is the main source of the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang rivers, and is very significant to the security of freshwater resources for China and southeastern Asia. It is a critical ecological region of China for its ecological functions, and has been changed or even degraded in recent decades owing to climate change and human pressure. To effectively protect and restore the degraded ecosystems, the Chinese government initiated a series of ecological conservation projects in TRHR. It is essential to quantitatively assess ecosystem changes and their relationship to driving factors for indepth understanding of long-term changes of ecosystems and effects of ecological restoration policies and offer practical insights for ecological restoration. Here, land cover data has been interpreted with the series data of Landsat during 1990–2015. The patterns of different ecosystems and their developing process have been derived from land cover change. The results show that ecosystem types in TRHR include forest, grassland, cropland,wetland, artificial surface and barren land, accounting for 4.51%, 70.80%, 0.15%, 9.47%, 0.16% and 14.90%,respectively. Barren land converted to wetland was the significant ecosystem change from 1990 to 2015. Increases in temperature and precipitation and implementation of ecological rehabilitation helped maintain relatively stable ecosystem patterns. It is necessary to continue ecological projects to improve and/or maintain the ecosystems in TRHR because there is still a risk of land degradation under increasing climate change and human activity.

Grassland degradation in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region, Qinghai Province

Supported by MSS images in the mid and late 1970s,TM images in the early 1990s and TM/ETM images in 2004,grassland degradation in the＂Three-River Headwaters＂region （TRH region）was interpreted through analysis on RS images in two time series,then the spatial and temporal characteristics of grassland degradation in the TRH region were analyzed since the 1970s.The results showed that grassland degradation in the TRH region was a continuous change process which had large affected area and long time scale,and rapidly strengthen phenomenon did not exist in the 1990s as a whole.Grassland degradation pattern in the TRH region took shape initially in the mid and late 1970s.Since the 1970s,this degradation process has taken place continuously,obviously characterizing different rules in different regions.In humid and semi-humid meadow region,grassland firstly fragmentized, then vegetation coverage decreased continuously,and finally＂black-soil-patch＂degraded grassland was formed.But in semi-arid and arid steppe region,the vegetation coverage decreased continuously,and finally desertification was formed.Because grassland degradation had obviously regional differences in the TRH region,it could be regionalized into 7 zones, and each zone had different characteristics in type,grade,scale and time process of grassland degradation.

Assessing the effects of vegetation and precipitation on soil erosion in the Three-River Headwaters Region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Soil erosion in the Three-River Headwaters Region(TRHR)of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China has a significant impact on local economic development and ecological environment.Vegetation and precipitation are considered to be the main factors for the variation in soil erosion.However,it is a big challenge to analyze the impacts of precipitation and vegetation respectively as well as their combined effects on soil erosion from the pixel scale.To assess the influences of vegetation and precipitation on the variation of soil erosion from 2005 to 2015,we employed the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE)model to evaluate soil erosion in the TRHR,and then developed a method using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model(LMDI)which can exponentially decompose the influencing factors,to calculate the contribution values of the vegetation cover factor(C factor)and the rainfall erosivity factor(R factor)to the variation of soil erosion from the pixel scale.In general,soil erosion in the TRHR was alleviated from 2005 to 2015,of which about 54.95%of the area where soil erosion decreased was caused by the combined effects of the C factor and the R factor,and 41.31%was caused by the change in the R factor.There were relatively few areas with increased soil erosion modulus,of which 64.10%of the area where soil erosion increased was caused by the change in the C factor,and 23.88%was caused by the combined effects of the C factor and the R factor.Therefore,the combined effects of the C factor and the R factor were regarded as the main driving force for the decrease of soil erosion,while the C factor was the dominant factor for the increase of soil erosion.The area with decreased soil erosion caused by the C factor(12.10×10^3 km^2)was larger than the area with increased soil erosion caused by the C factor(8.30×10^3 km^2),which indicated that vegetation had a positive effect on soil erosion.This study generally put forward a new method for quantitative assessment of the impacts of the influencing factors on soil erosion,and also provided a scientific basis for the regional control of soil erosion.

Hydrological effects of alpine permafrost in the headwaters of the Urumqi River,Tianshan Mountains

Against the background of climate change, alpine permafrost active layers have shown a gradual thickening trend and the hydrothermal conditions have undergone significant changes in the Tianshan Mountains and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. At the ice-free cirque basins in the headwaters of the Urumqi River （hereafter referred to as the Ice-Free Cirque） in eastern Tianshan, China, the hydrological effects of the alpine permafrost active layers appear to have also exhibited sig- nificant changes recently. The increasing trend of local precipitation is clear in May and June. The onset of winter and spring snowmelt runoff clearly lags behind increases of air temperature, and the runoff peak appears near the beginning of the melting season, which results in the spring rtmoff increasing. In summer, runoff decreases strongly and the maximum runoff occurs earlier. In our analysis of meteorological and hydrologic data from 1959 to 2010, the runoffand precipitation changes are significantly correlated. In the initial stage of runoff, the runoff-producing process is mainly under the control of the soil water content and soil temperature in the 0-30 cm active layers. Spring precipitation and snowmelt water are mainly involved in the processes of infiltration and evaporation while some melt water infiltrates into the seasonal thawed layer and stays above the frozen layers. During the strong ablation period in summer, the runoff-generating process is mainly controlled by soil water content in the active layers deeper than 60 cm. In the active layer, precipitation and sea- sonal snowmelt water infiltrates, migrates, collects, and then forms runoff.

A method for determining vegetation growth process using remote sensing data: A case study in the Three-River Headwaters Region, China

Accurate measurements of the associated vegetation phenological dynamics are crucial for understanding the relationship between climate change and terrestrial ecosystems. However, at present, most vegetation phenological calculations are based on a single algorithm or method. Because of the spatial, temporal, and ecological complexity of the vegetation growth processes, a single algorithm or method for monitoring all these processes has been indicated to be elusive. Therefore, in this study, from the perspective of plant growth characteristics, we established a method to remotely determine the start of the growth season(SOG) and the end of the growth season(EOG), in which the maximum relative change rate of the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) corresponds to the SOG, and the next minimum absolute change rate of the NDVI corresponds to the EOG. Taking the Three-River Headwaters Region in 2000–2013 as an example, we ascertained the spatiotemporal and vertical characteristics of its vegetation phenological changes. Then, in contrast to the actual air temperature data, observed data and other related studies, we found that the SOG and EOG calculated by the proposed method is closer to the time corresponding to the air temperature, and the trends of the SOG and EOG calculated by the proposed method are in good agreement with other relevant studies. Meantime, the error of the SOG between the calculated and observed in this study is smaller than that in other studies.

Research on Hydraulic Block Scenarios in the Land Conservation Zone of the Headwaters Area of Jinshu Bay

[Objective] The aim was to study the hydraulic block scenarios in the water source land conservation zone in Jinshu Bay so as to ensure the water quality in the water sources in Jinshu Bay.[Method] By dint of one dimension water amount and water quality mode in the river net in Taihu,the water flow movement characteristics and pollutants transportation rules in the water sources areas in Jinshu Bay under five kinds of hydraulic block scenarios were compared and discussed.[Result] After demolishing the temporary soil dam in the water source conservation zone in Jinshu Bay,water amount and pollutants increased and water quality deteriorated.It was necessary to take certain hydraulic power to block and control the pollutants in the preservation area;after demolishing the dam,there was less water amount and pollutants.The water quality improved significantly.The hydraulic block facility in the preservation area and its surroundings were all releasing and not introducing;the one along the mouth of the river of Mentianji Gang,Jinshugang and Longtanggang were introducing and not releasing,which only restricted poor-quality water in Beijing-Hangzhou Canal and Huguang Canal flowing into the conservation zone.The water into the conservation zone was all from Gonghu.The water mobility within the conservation zone was good.The regional water quality improved to the largest scale.[Conclusion] Judging from the water flow movement characteristics and pollutants transportation rules in Jinshu Bay,the fifth proposal was more appropriate.

Long-term ecological compensation policies and practices in China:Insights from the Three Rivers Headwaters Area

Using the Three Rivers Headwaters Area in China as a pilot project, this study has investigated the effectiveness of the ecological compensation policies and practices have implemented in this area over the past decade. Major issues have encountered during the implementation process, including the formidable extent of grassland degradation, the comprehensive nature of measures needed to restore the ecosystem, and the time needed to achieve these goals. These issues are discussed, and remedial measures proposed. They include: drafting regulations giving the Three Rivers Headwaters Area ecological protection, setting aside funds for ecological compensation and establishing a national park, using an ecological assets accounting methodology for financial reporting purposes, designing a science-based approach for conducting the livestock husbandry population migration, enhancing the oversight capacity for all aspects of the ecological compensation process, and making an overall plan to promote the harmonious development of this area together with other regions in Qinghai Province.

Headwaters Deforestation for Cattle Pastures in the Andes of Colombia and Its Implications for Soils Properties and Hydrological Dynamic

Deforestation of headwater in the Andes of Colombia is a historical process that has its origins in pre-Hispanic communities and in nineteenth and twentieth centuries, intensified by settlers and farmers. These lands have been intended mainly to pasture cattle. Soil compaction, caused by the trampling of cattle, was evaluated in soils derived from volcanic ash (Andisols), with reference to values found for variables in undisturbed natural forests in the same region. The compared parameters were bulk density (Db), total porosity (α), soil resistance to penetration (Rp) and pore size distribution, analyzed by water retention curves (WRC). The grazed soils had significant differences with respect to the natural forest reference values: Db was 53.7% higher, α was reduced by 11.0% and Rp in the first 7.5 cm of the top soil was more than double, with an average increase of 275.2 to 527.2 kPa. The analysis indicated that compacted soils had relatively uniform reduction in distribution of macro, meso and micropores. It was concluded that deforestation followed by pasture land destination in steep headwaters generates significant compaction processes that can affect the infiltration, percolation and soil water storage, which would have important hydrological implications: augmentation of surface runoff and soil erosion, decreased the base flow and increased direct runoff. For this reasons, it is considered that forest restoration of headwaters is important for the maintenance of hydrological functions of large river systems.

Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters,eastern Tien Shan(1980s-2017)

To address data scarcity on long-term glacial discharge and inadequacies in simulating and predicting hydrological processes in the Tien Shan,this study analysed the observed discharge at multiple timescales over 1980se2017 and projected changes within a representative glacierized high-mountain region:eastern Tien Shan,Central Asia.Hydrological processes were simulated to predict changes under four future scenarios(SSP1,SSP2,SSP3,and SSP5)using a classical hydrological model coupled with a glacier dynamics module.Discharge rates at annual,monthly(June,July,August)and daily timescales were obtained from two hydrological gauges:Urumqi Glacier No.1 hydrological station(UGH)and Zongkong station(ZK).Overall,annual and summer discharge increased significantly(p<0.05)at both stations over the study period.Their intra-annual variations mainly resulted from differences in their recharge mechanisms.The simulations show that a tipping point in annual discharge at UGH may occur between 2018 and 2024 under the four SSPs scenarios.Glacial discharge is predicted to cease earlier at ZK than at UGH.This relates to glacier type and size,suggesting basins with heavily developed small glaciers will reach peak discharge sooner,resulting in an earlier freshwater supply challenge.These findings serve as a reference for research into glacial runoff in Central Asia and provide a decision-making basis for planning local water-resource projects.

Increased southerly and easterly water vapor transport contributed to the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau

The Three-River Headwaters(TRH)region in the Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change;changes in summer(June–August)precipitation have a significant impact on water security and sustainability in both local and downstream areas.However,the changes in summer precipitation of different intensities over the TRH region,along with their influencing factors,remain unclear.In this study,we used observational and ERA5 reanalysis data and employed a precipitation categorization and water vapor budget analysis to quantify the categorized precipitation variations and investigate their possible linkages with the water vapor budget.Our results showed an increasing trend in summer precipitation at a rate of 0.9 per year(p<0.1)during 1979–2020,with a significant dry-to-wet transition in 2002.The category‘very heavy precipitation’(10 mm d−1)contributed 65.1%of the increased summer precipitation,which occurred frequently in the northern TRH region.The dry-to-wet transition was caused by the effects of varied atmospheric circulations in each subregion.Southwesterly water vapor transport through the southern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the western TRH region(158.2%),while southeasterly water vapor transport through the eastern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the central TRH(155.2%)and eastern TRH(229.2%)regions.Therefore,we inferred that the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation and the increased‘very heavy precipitation’over the TRH was caused by increased easterly and southerly water vapor transport.

The Impact of Hula Project (1993-2018) on Nutrient Migrations

During the 1950s the Hula wetlands and old lake were drained and the land converted utilization to agriculture and ecotourism. As a result of the drainage, the Peat Soil was exposed to atmospheric oxygen. The geochemical environment was modified from reductive to oxidative and the Nitrogen in it was converted from Ammonium to Nitrate. Intensive migration of Nitrate from the Hula Valley induced a national concern of water quality deterioration in the lake which was dissipated when Nitrogen deficiency was developed in Lake Kinneret. Forty years after drainage the ecosystem structure was renovated (Hula Project, HP) aimed at agricultural management and nutrient migration reduction. The paper examines through evaluation of the ecological data record (1993-2018) the impact of hydrological changes, attributed to the HP implementation on nutrient dynamics within surface waters in the Hula Valley. It is suggested that soil moisture elevation by irrigation in summer reduced Phosphorus and enhanced Nitrate concentrations.

Livestock-carrying capacity and overgrazing status of alpine grassland in the Three-River Headwaters region, China

The Three-River Headwaters region in China is an ecological barrier providing en- vironmental protection and regional sustainable development for the mid-stream and down- stream areas, which also plays an important role in animal husbandry in China. This study estimated the grassland yield in the Three-River Headwaters region based on MODIS NPP data, and calculated the proper livestock-carrying capacity of the grassland. We analyzed the overgrazing number and its spatial distribution characteristics through data comparison be- tween actual and proper livestock-carrying capacity. The results showed the following： （1） total grassland yield （hay） in the Three-River Headwaters region was 10.96 million tons in 2010 with an average grassland yield of 465.70 kg/hm2 （the spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from the east and southeast to the west and northwest in turn）; （2） the proper livestock-carrying capacity in the Three-River Headwaters region is 12.19 million sheep units （hereafter described as ＂SU＂）, and the average stocking capacity is 51.27 SU [the proper carrying capacity is above 100 SU/km2 in the eastern counties, 60 SU/km2 in the cen- tral counties （except Madoi County）, and 30 SU/km2 in the western counties]; and （3） total overgrazing number was 6.52 million SU in the Three-River Headwaters region in 2010, with an average overgrazing ratio of 67.88% and an average overgrazing number of 27.43 SU/km2 A higher overgrazing ratio occurred in Tongde, Xinghai, Yushu, Henan and Z^kog. There was no overgrazing in Zhiduo, Tanggula Township and Darlag, Qumerleb and Madoi. The re- mainder of the counties had varying degrees of overgrazing.

Climate change and its driving effect on the runoff in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region

Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-KendalI-Sneyers sequential trend test. Mak- kink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by pre- cipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented.

Temperature variation and abrupt change analysis in the Three-River Headwaters Region during 1961-2010

In this study, a monthly dataset of temperature time series （1961-2010） from 12 meteorological stations across the Three-River Headwater Region of Qinghai Province （THRHR） was used to analyze the climate change. The temperature variation and abrupt change analysis were examined by using moving average, linear regression, Spline interpolation, Mann-Kendall test and so on. Some important conclusions were obtained from this research, which mainly contained four aspects as follows. （1） There were several cold and warm fluctuations for the annual and seasonal average temperature in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions, but the temperature in these regions all had an obviously rising trend at the statistical significance level, especially after 2001. The spring, summer, autumn and annual average temperature increased evidently after the 1990s, and the winter average temperature exhibited an obvious upward trend after entering the 21st century. Except the standard value of spring temperature, the annual and seasonal temperature standard value in the THRHR and its three sub-headwater regions increased gradually, and the upward trend for the standard value of winter average temperature indicated significantly. （2） The tendency rate of annual average temperature in the THRHR was 0.36℃ 10a^-1, while the tendency rates in the Yellow River Headwater Region （YERHR）, Lancangjiang River Headwater Region （LARHR） and Yangtze River Headwater Region （YARHR） were 0.37℃ 10a^-1, 0.37℃ 10a^-1 and 0.34℃10a^-1 respectively. The temperature increased significantly in the south of Yushu County and the north of Nangqian County. The rising trends of temperature in winter and autumn were higher than the upward trends in spring and summer. （3） The abrupt changes of annual, summer, autumn and winter average temperature were found in the THRHR, LARHR and YARHR, and were detected for the summer and autumn average temperature in the YERHR. The abrupt changes of annual and summer average temperatures were mainly in the late 1990s, while the abrupt changes of autumn and winter average temperatures appeared primarily in the early 1990s and the early 21st century respectively. （4） With the global warming, the diversities of altitude and underlying surface in different parts of the Tibetan Plateau were possibly the main reasons for the high increasing rate of temperature in the THRHR.

The Recovery of Two Long-logged Headwaters in Temengor Reservoir,Perak,Malaysia

A study on water quality of the two long-logged and abandoned headwaters in Temengor Reservoir was conducted to determine their natural recovery.In this study,we used National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia prepared by Malaysian Department of Environment as an indicator for water quality recovery.The parameters measured were dissolved oxygen（mg/L）,water temperature（℃）,pH,conductivity（mS/cm）,total dissolved solids（mg/ L）,water velocity（m/s）,ortho-phosphate（PO4-P）,nitrite-nitrogen（NO2-N）,nitrate-nitrogen（NO3,-N）and alkalinity. In general,water quality in Sungai Enam and Sungai Telang were in ClassⅠ,indicating water quality in both streams have recovered.Based on the t-test,Sungai Enam and Sungai Telang differed significantly in all parameters except for dissolved oxygen,NO2-N and NO3-N.In spatial analyses（upper,middle and lower reaches comparisons）, the two-way ANOVA analysis shows that there were significant differences in all studied parameters between the two rivers except for dissolved oxygen,total dissolved solids,NO2-N and NO3-N.Stream flow,hydrologic pathways,geomorphology,physical and environmental characteristics are essential elements in understanding the dynamics of water systems in Sungai Enam and Sungai Telang.Due to the recovery,these two headwaters are thus suitable for fish conservation and restoration sites.

Dynamics of iron and aluminum storages in a subtropical forest headwater stream

The forest headwater streams are important hubs for connecting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems,with plant litter and sediments as the major carriers for material migrations;however,until now we knew little about the dynamics of trace elements such as iron(Fe)and aluminum(Al)in forest headwater streams.Here,we quantitatively identified the spatiotemporal dynamics of Fe and Al storages in plant litter and sediments and their influencing factors in a subtropical forest headwater stream,and assessed the potential pollution risk.The results showed that:(1)the mean concentrations of Fe and Al in plant litter(sediments)were 5.48 and 8.46(7.39 and 47.47)g·kg^(-1),and the mean storages of Fe and Al in plant litter(sediments)were 0.26 and 0.43(749.04 and 5030.90)g·m^(-2),respectively;(2)the storages of Fe and Al in plant litter and sediments significantly fluctuated from January to December,and showed a decreasing pattern from the source to mouth;and(3)storages of Fe and Al had no significant correlation with riparian forest type and the present of tributary and the Fe and Al storages in plant litter were mainly affected by water temperature and water alkalinity,and their storages in sediments were mainly affected by water temperature and frequency of rainfall;and(4)there were no anthropogenic pollution in Fe and Al in the forest headwater stream.Our study revealed the primary factors of concentrations and storages of Fe and Al in plant litter and sediments in a forest headwater stream,which will improve our understanding of the role of headwater streams in forest nutrient storage and cycling along with hydrological processes.

Postglacial incision-infill cycles at the Borisoglebsk Upland: Correlations between interfluve headwaters and fluvial network

The article discusses postglacial landscape transformation in the Northern Hemisphere Middle Pleistocene glaciation area located in the center of the Russian Plain.We attempted to verify the regional paleogeographic model by reconstructing the Late Pleistocene incision-infill cycles at the Eastern Borisoglebsk Upland based on a comparison of inactive interfluves headwaters and actual fluvial network palaeoarchives.The study was also aimed to determine the past extent of fluvial systems.Interdisciplinary research of the actual and buried topography,Ethology and pedogenic properties of surface deposits was carrid out with remote sensing data interpretation,DGPS survey,and detailed description of geological cores involved.The study was followed by analysis of grain size,chemical and organic contents,microstructure,and numerical dating.Integrating the available results,we propose a scenario of the fluvial network transformation at the Eastem Borisoglebsk Upland over the last 150 ka.At least four fluvial incision stages were determined while network extent has significantly changed through the Late Pleistocene.Three can be generally associated with the regional base level decrease-Late Moscow,Late Valdai and Late Holocene and accompanying isolation of the Nero Lake terraces of 130 m,100-105 m and 95-98 m.Incision stages were separated by landscape stability or aggradation periods those were asynchronous at the middle and upper parts of the fluvial network.The main agent of initial valley infill appears to be local lacustrine sedimentation altered by alluvial and colluvial deposition towards the second half of Valdai.Revealed landscape conditions variability emphasize the importance of comprehensive local correlations for regional retrospective models.

Effects of Broussonetia papyrifera invasion and land use on vegetation characteristics in a tropical forest of Ghana

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of Broussonetia papyrifera(paper mulberry)invasion and land use on the floristic composition of a dry semideciduous forest in Ghana.Forty-five plots(25 m×25 m each),distributed among three land uses-selectively logged(SL);abandoned farmlands(AF);and an undisturbed reference(RF)-were surveyed.Results showed lower tree species richness(S),diversity(H’),evenness(S)and basal area(BA)in the SL(46,0.78,0.32 and 269.12 m2 ha-1,respectively)and AF(40,0.53,0.45,and 131.16 m^2 ha^-1)sites compared to the RF site(79,2.66,0.87,963.72 m^2 ha^-1).Similar patterns were found at the shrub layer,but no differences were observed at the herb layer.Non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination revealed distinct species composition among the land uses.The two disturbed habitats,SL and AF,were associated with increased B.papyrifera invasion particularly in the overstory,with importance value index and mean relative density of 45 and 65.03%,and 42 and 53.29%,correspondingly.However,the species was only sparsely represented in the RF site.Tree density of B.papyrifera correlated negatively with H’,S,E,BA,and native tree density and richness.These findings highlight the strong link between human land use(i.e.,logging and slash-andburn farming),invasion,and vegetation characteristics,and suggest the need to limit these disturbances to conserve biodiversity within tropical forest ecosystems.

Effects of the adaptations to climate changes on the income of herdsmen in Qinghai Province

This study aims to implement the empirical analysis of the effects of the adaptive measures on the income of herdsmen in the context of the climate change with the positive mathematical programming(PMP)model.The survey was first implemented in three counties in the Three Headwaters Region.Finally the measures and recommendations suitable for the economic development in the ecologically fragile areas were proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:priority can be given to the measures to prevent the damage from rats and the engineering measures for pasture maintenance in Zeku County,where the geological conditions and grass quality are inferior,while the fiscal subsidy can be prioritized in Tongde County where the grassland area is relatively less.These recommendations can not only provide good reference for the protection of grassland resources,but they also lay a foundation for the implementation of more suitable measures to help the herdsmen in the ecologically fragile areas to adapt to the climate change.