Hourly traffic flow forecasting using a new hybrid modelling method

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department to have sufficient time to formulate corresponding traffic flow control measures.In hence,it is meaningful to establish an accurate short-term traffic flow method and provide reference for peak traffic flow warning.This paper proposed a new hybrid model for traffic flow forecasting,which is composed of the variational mode decomposition(VMD)method,the group method of data handling(GMDH)neural network,bi-directional long and short term memory(BILSTM)network and ELMAN network,and is optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm(ICA)method.To illustrate the performance of the proposed model,there are several comparative experiments between the proposed model and other models.The experiment results show that 1)BILSTM network,GMDH network and ELMAN network have better predictive performance than other single models;2)VMD can significantly improve the predictive performance of the ICA-GMDH-BILSTM-ELMAN model.The effect of VMD method is better than that of EEMD method and FEEMD method.To conclude,the proposed model which is made up of the VMD method,the ICA method,the BILSTM network,the GMDH network and the ELMAN network has excellent predictive ability for traffic flow series.

Modeling viscosity of methane,nitrogen,and hydrocarbon gas mixtures at ultra-high pressures and temperatures using group method of data handling and gene expression programming techniques

Accurate gas viscosity determination is an important issue in the oil and gas industries.Experimental approaches for gas viscosity measurement are timeconsuming,expensive and hardly possible at high pressures and high temperatures(HPHT).In this study,a number of correlations were developed to estimate gas viscosity by the use of group method of data handling(GMDH)type neural network and gene expression programming(GEP)techniques using a large data set containing more than 3000 experimental data points for methane,nitrogen,and hydrocarbon gas mixtures.It is worth mentioning that unlike many of viscosity correlations,the proposed ones in this study could compute gas viscosity at pressures ranging between 34 and 172 MPa and temperatures between 310 and 1300 K.Also,a comparison was performed between the results of these established models and the results of ten wellknown models reported in the literature.Average absolute relative errors of GMDH models were obtained 4.23%,0.64%,and 0.61%for hydrocarbon gas mixtures,methane,and nitrogen,respectively.In addition,graphical analyses indicate that the GMDH can predict gas viscosity with higher accuracy than GEP at HPHT conditions.Also,using leverage technique,valid,suspected and outlier data points were determined.Finally,trends of gas viscosity models at different conditions were evaluated.

Coordinate scheduling approach for EDS observation tasks and data transmission jobs

Electromagnetic detection satellite（EDS） is a type of Earth observation satellite（EOS）. Satellites observation and data down-link scheduling plays a significant role in improving the efficiency of satellite observation systems. However, the current works mainly focus on the scheduling of imaging satellites, little work focuses on the scheduling of EDSes for its specific requirements.And current works mainly schedule satellite resources and data down-link resources separately, not considering them in a globally optimal perspective. The EDSes and data down-link resources are scheduled in an integrated process and the scheduling result is searched globally. Considering the specific constraints of EDS, a coordinate scheduling model for EDS observation tasks and data transmission jobs is established and an algorithm based on the genetic algorithm is proposed. Furthermore, the convergence of our algorithm is proved. To deal with some specific constraints, a solution repairing algorithm of polynomial computing time is designed. Finally, some experiments are conducted to validate the correctness and practicability of our scheduling algorithms.

Real-Time and Intelligent Flood Forecasting Using UAV-Assisted Wireless Sensor Network

The Wireless Sensor Network(WSN)is a promising technology that could be used to monitor rivers’water levels for early warning flood detection in the 5G context.However,during a flood,sensor nodes may be washed up or become faulty,which seriously affects network connectivity.To address this issue,Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs)could be integrated with WSN as routers or data mules to provide reliable data collection and flood prediction.In light of this,we propose a fault-tolerant multi-level framework comprised of a WSN and a UAV to monitor river levels.The framework is capable to provide seamless data collection by handling the disconnections caused by the failed nodes during a flood.Besides,an algorithm hybridized with Group Method Data Handling(GMDH)and Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)is proposed to predict forthcoming floods in an intelligent collaborative environment.The proposed water-level prediction model is trained based on the real dataset obtained fromthe Selangor River inMalaysia.The performance of the work in comparison with other models has been also evaluated and numerical results based on different metrics such as coefficient of determination(R2),correlation coefficient(R),RootMean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE),and BIAS are provided.

Discrete differential evolution algorithm for integer linear bilevel programming problems

A discrete differential evolution algorithm combined with the branch and bound method is developed to solve the integer linear bilevel programming problems, in which both upper level and lower level variables are forced to be integer. An integer coding for upper level variables is adopted, and then a discrete differential evolution algorithm with an improved feasibility-based comparison is developed to directly explore the integer solution at the upper level. For a given upper level integer variable, the lower level integer programming problem is solved by the existing branch and bound algorithm to obtain the optimal integer solution at the lower level. In the same framework of the algorithm, two other constraint handling methods, i.e. the penalty function method and the feasibility-based comparison method are also tested. The experimental results demonstrate that the discrete differential evolution algorithm with different constraint handling methods is effective in finding the global optimal integer solutions, but the improved constraint handling method performs better than two compared constraint handling methods.

Best compromising crashworthiness design of automotive S-rail using TOPSIS and modified NSGAⅡ

In order to reduce both the weight of vehicles and the damage of occupants in a crash event simultaneously, it is necessary to perform a multi-objective optimal design of the automotive energy absorbing components. Modified non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II(NSGA II) was used for multi-objective optimization of automotive S-rail considering absorbed energy(E), peak crushing force(Fmax) and mass of the structure(W) as three conflicting objective functions. In the multi-objective optimization problem(MOP), E and Fmax are defined by polynomial models extracted using the software GEvo M based on train and test data obtained from numerical simulation of quasi-static crushing of the S-rail using ABAQUS. Finally, the nearest to ideal point(NIP)method and technique for ordering preferences by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) method are used to find the some trade-off optimum design points from all non-dominated optimum design points represented by the Pareto fronts. Results represent that the optimum design point obtained from TOPSIS method exhibits better trade-off in comparison with that of optimum design point obtained from NIP method.

Global Solar Radiation Maps of Saudi Arabia

This paper uses Abductive network to predict global solar radiation in any location in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia （KSA） based on sunshine duration, month number, latitude, longitude, and altitude of the location. Results indicate good agreement between measured and predicted GSR values for each of the 35 locations with known GSR values. Finally, the data from all available stations are used to train an abductive network to estimate the GSR values anywhere in the Kingdom based on latitude and longitude. GSR values are estimated using the developed method at 25 additional locations throughout the kingdom and used with the measured data from the 35 available measurement stations to draw a comprehensive contour map of GSR values for KSA.

White-box machine-learning models for accurate interfacial tension prediction in hydrogen-brine mixtures

The severity of climate change and global warming necessitates the need for a transition from traditional hydrocarbon-based energy sources to renewable energy sources.One intrinsic challenge with renewable energy sources is their intermittent nature,which can be addressed by transforming excess energy into hydrogen and storing it safely for future use.To securely store hydrogen underground,a comprehensive knowledge of the interactions between hydrogen and residing fluids is required.Interfacial tension is an important variable influenced by cushion gases such as CO_(2) and CH4.This research developed explicit correlations for approximating the interfacial tension of a hydrogen–brine mixture using two advanced machine-learning techniques:gene expression programming and the group method of data handling.The interfacial tension of a hydrogen–brine mixture was considered to be heavily influenced by temperature,pressure,water salinity,and the average critical temperature of the gas mixture.The results indicated a higher performance of the group method of data handling-based correlation,showing an average absolute relative error of 4.53%.Subsequently,Pearson,Spearman,and Kendall methods were used to assess the influence of individual input variables on the outputs of the correlations.Analysis showed that the temperature and the average critical temperature of the gas mixture had considerable inverse impacts on the estimated interfacial tension values.Finally,the reliability of the gathered databank and the scope of application for the proposed correlations were verified using the leverage approach by illustrating 97.6%of the gathered data within the valid range of the Williams plot.

Predicting beach profile evolution with group method data handling-type neural networks on beaches with seawalls

A major goal of coastal engineering is to develop models for the reliable prediction of short-and longterm near shore evolution.The most successful coastal models are numerical models,which allow flexibility in the choice of initial and boundary conditions.In the present study,evolutionary algorithms(EAs)are employed for multi-objective Pareto optimum design of group method data handling(GMDH)-type neural networks that have been used for bed evolution modeling in the surf zone for reflective beaches,based on the irregular wave experiments performed at the Hydraulic Laboratory of Imperial College(London,UK).The input parameters used for such modeling are significant wave height,wave period,wave action duration,reflection coefficient,distance from shoreline and sand size.In this way,EAs with an encoding scheme are presented for evolutionary design of the generalized GMDH-type neural networks,in which the connectivity configurations in such networks are not limited to adjacent layers.Also,multi-objective EAs with a diversity preserving mechanism are used for Pareto optimization of such GMDH-type neural networks.The most important objectives of GMDH-type neural networks that are considered in this study are training error(TE),prediction error(PE),and number of neurons(N).Different pairs of these objective functions are selected for two-objective optimization processes.Therefore,optimal Pareto fronts of such models are obtained in each case,which exhibit the trade-offs between the corresponding pair of the objectives and,thus,provide different non-dominated optimal choices of GMDH-type neural network model for beach profile evolution.The results showed that the present model has been successfully used to optimally prediction of beach profile evolution on beaches with seawalls.

Developing a robust correlation for prediction of sweet and sour gas hydrate formation temperature

There are numerous correlations and thermodynamic models for predicting the natural gas hydrate formation condition but still the lack of a simple and unifying general model that addresses a broad ranges of gas mixture.This study was aimed to develop a user-friendly universal correlation based on hybrid group method of data handling(GMDH)for prediction of hydrate formation temperature of a wide range of natural gas mixtures including sweet and sour gas.To establish the hybrid GMDH,the total experimental data of 343 were obtained from open articles.The selection of input variables was based on the hydrate structure formed by each gas species.The modeling resulted in a strong algorithm since the squared correlation coefficient(R2)and root mean square error(RMSE)were 0.9721 and 1.2152,respectively.In comparison to some conventional correlation,this model represented not only the outstanding statistical parameters but also its absolute superiority over others.In particular,the result was encouraging for sour gases concentrated at H2S to the extent that the model outstrips all available thermodynamic models and correlations.Leverage statistical approach was applied on datasets to the discovery of the defected and doubtful experimental data and suitability of the model.According to this algorithm,approximately all the data points were in the proper range of the model and the proposed hybrid GMDH model was statistically reliable.