Application of Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Based on Kaiser Model in Neonatal Breast Milk Management

Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-feeding of breast milk.Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model was applied to investigate and evaluate the risk events.Results:High-risk events include breast milk quality inspection,hand hygiene during collection,disinfection of collectors,cold chain management,hand hygiene during the reception,breast milk closed-loop management,and post-collection disposal.Root cause analysis of high-risk events was conducted and breast milk management strategies outside the hospital and within the neonatal department were proposed.Conclusion:Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model can identify and assess neonatal breast milk management risks effectively,which helps improve the management of neonatal breast milk.It is conducive to the safe development and promotion of bottle feeding of breast milk for neonates,ensuring the quality of medical services and the safety of children.

Spatial Analysis of Risks and Vulnerabilities to Major Hazards in Madagascar Using the Multi-Criteria Method Based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Natural disasters are not negligible factors that have significant impacts on a country’s development. Madagascar cannot escape cyclones, floods and drought due to its geographical situation. The objective in this work is to assess the risks and vulnerability to these hazards in order to strengthen the resilience of the Malagasy population. Our approach is based on multi-criteria spatial analysis using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results form decision spatial information that can be used at the strategic level of natural risk and disaster management. This work focuses on the degree of vulnerability and it was found in this study that the Androy and Atsimo-Atsinanana regions are the most vulnerable to major hazards in Madagascar not only because of their exposure to risk but also because of their very low socio-economic status.

Measuring Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China

Social vulnerability in this study represents the differences between the capacity to cope with natural hazards and disaster losses suffered within and between places.The assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step in understanding natural hazard risks and enhancing effective response capabilities.This article presents an initial study of the social vulnerability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(B-T-H) Region in China.The goal is to replicate and test the applicability of the United States Social Vulnerability Index(So VI) method in a Chinese cultural context.Thirty-nine variables adapted from the So VI were collected in relation to two aspects:socioeconomic vulnerability and built environment vulnerability.Using factor analysis,seven factors were extracted from the variable set:the structure of social development,the level of economic and government financial strength,social justice and poverty,family structure,the intensity of space development,the status of residential housing and transportation,and building structure.Factor scores were summed to get the final So VI scores and the most and least vulnerable units were identified and mapped.The highest social vulnerability is concentrated in the northwest of the study area.The least socially vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang core urban peripheral and central city areas of the prefecture-level cities.The results show that this method is a useful tool for revealing places that have a high level of vulnerability,in other words,areas which are more likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event.These findings could provide a scientific basis for policy making and the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.

Sustainability of Bridges:Risk Mitigation for Natural Hazards

Bridges serve as essential parts of transportation infrastructure,facilitating the movement of people and goods across rivers,valleys,and other obstacles.However,they are also susceptible to a wide range of natural hazards,including floods,earthquakes,and landslides,which can damage or even collapse these structures,leading to severe economic and human losses.A risk index has been developed to address this issue,which quantifies the likelihood and severity of natural hazards occurring in a specific location.The application of risk indices for natural hazards in bridge management involves a data collection process and mathematical modelling.The data collection process gathers information on bridges’location,condition,and vulnerability,while mathematical modelling uses the data to assess the risk of natural hazards.Overall,risk indices provide a quantitative measure of the vulnerability of bridges to natural hazards and help to prioritize maintenance and repair activities.Mitigation measures are then evaluated and implemented based on the risk assessment results.By using this tool,the UBMS research group has developed an algorithm for risk assessment which will be essential in the decision-making process,specifically focused on enhancing Fund Optimization,Deterioration Modelling,and Risk Analysis.These developments effectively fulfill the primary objectives associated with addressing and mitigating hazards.This development also helps bridge managers understand the potential threats posed by natural hazards and allocate resources more efficiently to ensure the safety and longevity of critical transportation infrastructure.

An Analysis of Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Nepal Using a Modified Social Vulnerability Index

Social vulnerability influences the ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. The identification of vulnerable populations and factors that contribute to their vulnerability are crucial for effective disaster risk reduction. Nepal exhibits multihazard risk and has experienced socioeconomic and political upheaval in recent decades, further increasing susceptibility to hazards.However, we still know little regarding social vulnerability in Nepal. Here, we investigate social vulnerability in Nepal by adapting Social Vulnerability Index(SoVI) methods to the Nepali context. Variables such as caste, and populations who cannot speak/understand Nepali were added to reflect the essence of the Nepali context. Using principal component analysis, 39 variables were reduced to seven factors that explained 63.02% of variance in the data.Factor scores were summarized to calculate final SoVI scores. The highest levels of social vulnerability are concentrated in the central and western Mountain, western Hill, and central and eastern Tarai regions of Nepal, while the least vulnerable areas are in the central and eastern Hill regions. These findings, supplemented with smaller-scale analyses, have the potential to assist village officers, policymakers,and emergency managers in the development of more effective and geographically targeted disaster management programs.

Evaluation and Analysis of Hospital Disaster Preparedness in Jeddah

Introduction: Disaster damage to health systems is a human and health tragedy, results in huge economic losses, deals devastating blows to development goals, and shakes social confidence. Hospital disaster preparedness presents complex clinical operation. It is difficult philosophical challenge. It is difficult to determine how much time, money, and effort should be spent in preparing for an event that may not occur. Health facilities whether hospitals or rural health clinics, should be a source of strength during emergencies and disasters. They should be ready to save lives and to continue providing essential emergencies and disasters. Jeddah has relatively a level of disaster risk which is attributable to its geographical location, climate variability, topography, etc. This study investigates the hospital disaster preparedness (HDP) in Jeddah. Methods: Questionnaire was designed according to five Likert scales. It was divided into eight fields of 33 indicators: structure, architectural and furnishings, lifeline facilities’ safety, hospital location, utilities maintenance, surge capacity, emergency and disaster plan, and control of communication and coordination. Sample of six hospitals participated in the study and rated to the extent of disaster preparedness for each hospital disaster preparedness indicators. Two hazard tools were used to find out the hazards for each hospital. An assessment tool was designed to monitor progress and effectiveness of the hospitals’ improvement. Weakness was found in HDP level in the surveyed hospitals. Disaster mitigation needs more action including: risk assessment, structural and non-structural prevention, and preparedness for contingency planning and warning and evacuation. Conclusion: The finding shows that hospitals included in this study have tools and indicators in hospital preparedness but with lack of training and management during disaster. So the research shed light on hospital disaster preparedness. Considering the importance of preparedness in disaster, it is necessary for hospitals to understand that most of hospital disaster preparedness is built in the hospital system.

Hazard and vulnerability evaluation of water distribution system in cases of contamination intrusion accidents

In this paper, it proposed an index system for hazard and vulnerability evaluations of water distribution networks, based on the simulation of contamination events caused by pollutant injections at different junctions. It attempted to answer the following two questions in the case of contamination events： 1） Which are the most hazardous junctions？ 2） Which are the most vulnerable junctions？ With EPANET toolkit, it simulated the propagation of the contaminant, and calculated the peak concentration of the contaminant and mass delivered at different nodes. According to types of consumers, different weights were assigned to the consumer nodes for assessing the influence of the contaminant on the consumers. Using the method proposed herein, both the hazard index and vulnerability index were calculated for each node in the pipe network. The presented method was therefore applied to the water network of the city of Zhenjiang, which contains two water plants, two booster pump stations with storage tanks. In conclusion, the response time, the relationships between the peak concentration of contami- nant and the total absorption are the most important factors in hazard and vulnerability evaluation of the water distribution network.

Assessing Social Vulnerability to Flood Hazards in the Dutch Province of Zeeland

The 2007 European Union Floods Directive encouraged member nations to pursue a more integrated view of flood risks and management strategies, taking into account social vulnerabilities of residents. To date, most flood-risk analyses conducted by the Dutch government have focused on physical risk. This study utilizes fine-scale data to construct a social vulnerability index for 147 districts of the Dutch province of Zeeland, located in the Southwestern Delta and the scene of widespread devastation following the 1953 North Sea Flood. Factor analysis of 25 indicators of social vulnerability selected from related research in Europe and the United States results in seven factors explaining roughly 66% of the total variance. These factors of social vulnerability in Zeeland are urban density,low-income households, recent population change, female gender, train access, and self-employed and service-sector employment. The index was constructed using the toploading variable in each of these factors, with weights determined by the variance explained by each factor.Scores range from a low of 0.20 in Schore, municipality of Kapelle, to the highest score of 0.64 in Oudelandse Hoeve of Terneuzen. The most vulnerable districts are located in South Zeeland, with eight of the 10 found in Terneuzen.The majority of less vulnerable districts are located in Zeeland’s central region.

基于灾害脆弱性分析的医院舆情治理体系建设探索

在全媒体时代,网络舆情事件给医疗行业带来困扰,医院网络舆情管理面临严峻考验。阐述了医院网络舆情治理存在的主要问题,介绍了北京大学人民医院基于灾害脆弱性分析的医院网络舆情治理策略与方法,即从舆情风险识别、舆情管理体系建设、提高科室管理水平等方面完善医院网络舆情管理模式,以期减少和避免网络舆情事件的负面影响,构建和谐的医患关系,改善医疗服务。

医院信息系统应急管理体系的建设

随着信息技术的飞速发展,医院业务的连续性越来越依赖信息系统的稳定运行。为了提高医院应对信息系统突发故障事件的处置能力,中山大学附属第六医院借助工具开展灾害脆弱性分析,精准识别出医院信息系统可能面临的高危风险事件,按照风险事件发生后果的严重程度进行排序。结合医院的实际情况建立应急管理组织架构,制订可操作、可执行的应急预案并实施应急演练,不断改进和完善应急预案,建立了一套有效的信息系统故障应急管理体系。本文分享了医院在信息系统故障应急管理体系建设的经验和成果,可为其他医疗机构的应急管理工作提供参考和借鉴。

灾害脆弱性分析在采供血机构风险评估中的应用

目的对采供血机构进行灾害脆弱性分析,明确高风险事件,优化应急管理措施。方法以广州血液中心为研究对象,结合实际情况制定改良版Kaiser模型分析调查表,运用风险矩阵法、Borda序值法对风险事件进行排序。结果Kaiser模型中风险排序前5的事件为信息系统突发事件(39.61%)、极端天气(38.03%)、重大舆情(37.86%)、公共卫生事件(37.37%)、政策变化(37.24%);风险矩阵及Borda序值排序评估结果为1项极高风险事件即信息系统突发事件、5项高风险事件且风险最高的为重大舆情、11项中风险事件且风险最高的为重大医疗纠纷、1项低风险事件即外部火灾。结论结合采供血机构的实际情况开展灾害脆弱性分析,可以有效识别高风险事件,为完善突发事件应急管理措施提供理论依据。

粤港澳大湾区复合灾害承灾体脆弱性评估

由多种自然灾害耦合而成的复合灾害对个别区域的人类健康与城市社会发展有着显著的影响,对其主要承灾体的脆弱性评估便成为防灾减灾工作开展的重要前提.基于对自然灾害形势和脆弱性影响因素的深度学习,以粤港澳大湾区境内地级市以下52个区/县、香港地区、澳门地区为研究对象,从物理脆弱性、人口、经济建设、应对能力4个方面选取地均GDP、耕地面积百分比等13项指标建立评价指标体系,并使用主成分分析法分别评估4个方面的脆弱性,再通过综合评价法得出粤港澳大湾区复合灾害承灾体综合脆弱性评价结果.结果表明:高脆弱性集中在天河区、海珠区等靠近珠江口的位置,其共同特点是物理脆弱性与经济脆弱性较高,城市用地多、道路网发达占主导位置.因此,需要尽快通过气候适应战略来缓解城市化高地区局部变暖导致的复合灾害爆发,研究成果为我国华南沿海地区复杂灾害系统的防治提供重要理论支撑.

基于Kaiser模型的急诊病区灾害脆弱性评估与应对策略

目的评估急诊病区的灾害脆弱性风险,以提高其在意外事件发生时的灵活性和复原能力。方法选取浙江省内39家医院的73名急诊专科护士进行横断面调查,利用基于Kaiser模型的灾害脆弱性分析(hazardvulnerability analysis,HVA)识别潜在威胁,评估其概率,估计其对特定组织或区域的影响,并计算与此类事件相关的风险值。结果在4类风险指标中,系统风险值最高(37.68%),其次为人员(36.53%)、物品(29.45%)和空间(29.25%)。排名前10位的风险事件为患者数超出急诊室容量(52.03%)、人员不足(47.23%)、工作场所暴力(46.86%)、医疗诉讼(43.64%)、高危管道意外拔管(41.63%)、缺乏抢救经验或技能(41.51%)、标本事件(40.72%)、缺乏循环支持观察与异常处理经验(39.22%)、信息系统故障(38.95%)、患者走失(38.28%)。结论应从领导规划、制度完善、沟通协作和适应能力提升等方面改进,通过加强护理人员培训和配置、持续监测物品与空间风险、制定床位管理和新护士培训等措施提升急诊病区的应急能力和服务质量。

肿瘤专科医院灾害脆弱性分析与灾害应对实践

目的评估肿瘤专科医院对灾害的抵御能力和恢复能力,并提供样本医院应急实践管理案例作参考。方法采用头脑风暴法面向全院职工征集医院的潜在灾害项,由医院质量与安全管理委员会讨论确定风险项并形成调查问卷。用Excel进行描述性统计分析并测算各风险项的风险系数,用SPSS完成问卷信效度检验,并绘制气泡图,采用个案研究法对已发生过的灾害事件及应对策略进行分析。结果该肿瘤专科医院排名前五的风险项为火灾(54.24%)、医患纠纷(51.86%)、暴力伤医(44.63%)、院感暴发(43.47%)、突发公共卫生事件(42.94%)。结论医院应完善应急预案体系,强化医院应急管理,重点关注风险值较高项,保障医院平稳运行。

基于Kaiser模型的灾害脆弱性分析在儿科应急管理中的应用

目的通过Kaiser模型对基层儿科的灾害脆弱性现状进行分析,评估儿科灾害事件风险,以提高应急管理能力。方法基于Kaiser模型,从自然灾害、技术灾害、人员伤害和危险品伤害4类、48种灾害来源调查儿科面临的各类潜在危害,通过对危害风险的分析和风险值排序,明确儿科应急管理的重点,有针对性地强化应急管理的措施,从而健全儿科应急管理体系。结果自然灾害事件中,相对风险值排前5位的依次为地震(34.44%)、暴雨(25.69%)、火灾(23.94%)、极端高温(22.13%)及干旱(15.95%)。技术灾害事件中,相对风险值排前5位的依次为针刺伤(27.62%)、穿刺失败(25.52%)、停水/停电(24.99%)、信息系统故障(24.13%)及电梯意外事件(23.22%)。人员伤害事件中,相对风险值排前5位的依次为“新冠”肺炎院内传播(16.26%)、药物不良反应(15.57%)、跌倒/坠床(12.10%)、暴力伤医事件(11.07%)及误服药物(10.59%)。危险品类事件中,相对风险值排前5位的依次为玻璃体温计断裂(11.77%)、危险气体泄漏(7.89%)、放射性物体泄漏(7.52%)、化学品泄漏(5.40%)及氧气泄漏(5.34%)。全部事件按照风险值由高至低排序,前5位依次为地震(34.44%)、针刺伤(27.62%)、暴雨(25.69%)、穿刺失败(25.52%)及停水/停电(24.99%)。结论Kaiser模型是一种科学有效的应急风险分析工具,为全面保障医疗安全提供了一定参考,对科室应急事件管理有较高的适用性,值得在医院内推广应用。根据灾害脆弱性分析(HVA)结果和报告,应针对暴露的防控薄弱点,修订和完善科室突发事件的应急预案,加强科室应急培训和演练,提高应急反应和医疗保障能力。

Debris flow and landslide hazard mapping and risk analysis in China

This paper assesses the hazardousness, vulnerability and risk of debris flow and landslide in China and compiles maps with a scale of 1：6000000, based on Geographical Information System （GIS） technology, hazard regionalization map, socioeconomic data from 2000. Integrated hazardousness of debris flow and landslide is equivalent to the sum of debris flow hazardousness and landslide hazardousness. Vulnerability is assessed by employing a simplified assessment model. Risk is calculated by the following formula： Risk = Hazardousness × Vulnerability. The analysis results of assessment of hazardousness, vulnerability and risk show that there are extremely high risk regions of 104 km2, high risk regions of 283008 km2, moderate risk regions of 3161815 km2, low risk regions of 3299604km2, and extremely low risk regions of 2681709 km2. Exploitation activities should be prohibited in extremely high risk and high risk regions and restricted in moderate risk regions. The present study on risk analysis of debris flow and landslide not only sheds new light on the future work in this direction but also provides a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation policy making.

一种反舰导弹打击下补给船目标的易损性分析方法

[目的]针对目前在舰船目标易损性分析方法研究方面的迫切需求,提出一种反舰导弹打击下补给船目标的易损性分析方法。[方法]以某典型补给船为攻击目标,选择反舰导弹作为攻击武器,分析目标的构效关系。通过数值模拟得到反舰导弹内爆载荷作用下补给船的动态响应,研究反舰导弹内爆载荷作用下关键部件的毁伤破坏及毁伤判据,得到补给船功能的毁伤程度。对补给船目标易损性进行分析,判断使其航行功能造成最大程度毁伤的攻击方法。[结果]形成了从目标构效关系分析、关键部件毁伤模式、毁伤准则与判据,到目标功能毁伤程度的易损性分析方法的流程。根据目标易损性分布信息,得出瞄准非冗余部件集中的位置进行打击可起到最强的攻击效果。[结论]可为舰船目标易损性的研究提供技术支撑,辅助决策火力筹划。

Spatiotemporal Pattern of Social Vulnerability in Italy

Evaluation of social vulnerability(SV) against natural hazards remains a big challenge for disaster risk reduction. Spatiotemporal analysis of SV is important for successful implementation of prevision and prevention measures for risk mitigation. This study examined the spatiotemporal pattern of SV in Italy, and also analyzed socioeconomic factors that may influence how the Italian population reacts to catastrophic natural events. We identified 16 indicators that quantify SV and collected data for the census years 1991, 2001, and 2011. We created a social vulnerability index(SVI) for each year by using principal component analysis outputs and an additive method.Exploratory spatial data analysis, including global and local autocorrelations, was used to understand the spatial patterns of social vulnerability across the country. Specifically, univariate local Moran's index was performed for the SVI of each of the three most recent census years in order to detect changes in spatial clustering during the whole study period. The original contribution of this Italy case study was to use a bivariate spatial correlation to describe the spatiotemporal correlation between the threes annual SV indices. The temporal analysis shows that the percentage of municipalities with medium social vulnerability in Italy increased from 1991 to 2011 and those with very high social vulnerability decreased. Spatial analysis provided evidence of clusters that maintained significant high values of social vulnerability throughout the studyperiods. The SVI of many areas in the center and the south of the peninsula remained stable, and the people living there have continued to be potentially vulnerable to natural hazards.

基于层次分析法和GIS的地质灾害易发性评价

结合层次分析法,选取地层岩性、地质构造、降雨、地形坡度、NDVI(归一化植被指数)、人类工程活动6项评价指标,构建五峰县地质灾害易发性评价指标体系,进行地质灾害易发性评价和分区。结果表明:地质灾害中高易发区约占31.40%,主要分布于河流流域及附近的斜坡地带、道路和断裂构造带两侧、工程活动密集区;低易发区约占68.60%,主要分布在山间谷地、植被覆盖率高、工程活动较少的区域;评价结果可为五峰县地质灾害区划和预防提供参考。

基于改进DEAHP法的高比例可再生能源系统脆弱性评估

由于可再生能源间歇性和随机性的运行特点以及不稳定的输出特性与不可控的源动力,电网接入可再生能源时在结构和运行上不可避免地会出现某些难以预料的脆弱特性。通过建立系统多场景规划模型,综合多个角度共同评估电网元件的脆弱性,提出了带有不确定测度的脆弱性评估方法。此方法能够有效识别电网中存在的薄弱节点和支路,可为运行分析人员和调度人员提供电网安全预警信息。