Study on the Geohazard Distribution Laws and Hazard-Causing Mechanism in Menghai County of Yunnan Province

The study area is located at the southwest border of Yunnan Province and the southward extended part of Nushan Mountain,with complex and fragile geo-environmental conditions.Deep geological survey and mathematical analytical investigation on the geohazard distribution and hazard-causing mechanisms in this area were carried out in this study.The results revealed that:(1)The development of geohazards was affected differently by difierent slope shapes,slope structures and elevations;(2)Most of the geohazards were developed in medium shallow cut ridge-like medium-height mountainous geomorphological region and shallow cut steamed bun-like low and medium-height mountainous geomorphological region,and they were relatively concentrated on tectonic zones like fault zones;(3)The slopes formed by loose earth piling up on the surface of Indo-Chinese magmatic rock and Lancang Group metamorphic rock formations were most prone to slope instability and even landslide.The deep study on the geohazard distribution and hazard-causing mechanisms can provide geoscientific basis and reference for the prevention and mitigation work of geohazards under similar geo-environmental conditions.

Hazard risk assessment of tropical cyclones based on joint probability theory

The main hazard-causing factors of tropical cyclones are strong wind,heavy rainfall,and storm surge.Evaluation of the hazard-causing degree of a tropical cyclone requires a joint intensity analysis of these hazard-causing factors.According to the maximum hourly mean wind speed,total rainfall,and maximum tide level at various observation stations in Hong Kong during these tropical cyclones,three hazard-causing indices for tropical cyclones are introduced:the strong-wind index(VI),total-rainfall index(RI),and tide-level index(LI).Through a joint probability analysis of VI,RI,and LI for a tropical cyclone affecting Hong Kong,the joint return period is calculated to evaluate its joint hazard-causing intensity.A limit state function of Hong Kong’s resistance to tropical cyclones is developed and used to evaluate the regional risk of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong.The results indicate that the joint return period of VI,RI,and LI can reflect the joint hazard-causing intensity of strong wind,heavy rain,and storm surge caused by tropical cyclones;if the overall design return periods of the regional structures decrease,the regional ability to defend against tropical cyclone disasters is degraded.