Reduced Soil Moisture Contributes to More Intense and More Frequent Heat Waves in Northern China

Heat waves have attracted increasing attention in recent years due to their frequent occurrence.The present study investigates the heat wave intensity and duration in China using daily maximum temperature from 753 weather stations from 1960 to 2010.In addition,its relationships with soil moisture local forcing on the ten-day period and monthly scales in spring and summer are analyzed using soil moisture data from weather stations and ERA40 reanalysis data.And finally,a mechanistic analysis is carried out using CAM5.1（Community Atmosphere Model,version 5.1） coupled with CLM2（Community Land Model,version 2）.It is found that the heat wave frequency and duration show a sandwich distribution across China,with high occurrence rates in Southeast China and Northwest China,where the maximum frequency and duration exceeded 2.1 times and 9 days per year,respectively.The increasing trends in both duration and intensity occurred to the north of 35°N.The relationships between heat wave frequency in northern China in July（having peak distribution） and soil moisture in the earlier stage（from March to June） and corresponding period（July） are further analyzed,revealing a strong negative correlation in March,June and July,and thus showing that soil moisture in spring and early summer could be an important contributor to heat waves in July via positive subtropical high anomalies.However,the time scales of influence were relatively short in the semi-humid and humid regions,and longer in the arid region.The contribution in the corresponding period took place via positive subtropical high anomalies and positive surface skin temperature and sensible heat flux anomalies.

Impact of Heat Wave in 2005 on Mortality in Guangzhou, China

Objective To assess the impact of the heat wave in 2005 on mortality among the residents in Guangzhou and to identify susceptible subpopulations in Guangzhou, China. Methods The data of daily number of deaths and meteorological measures from 2003 to 2006 in Guangzhou were used in this study. Heat wave was defined as 〉7 consecutive days with daily maximum temperature above 35.0 ~C and daily mean temperature above the 97th percentile during the study period. The excess deaths and rate ratio （RR） of mortality in the case period compared with the reference period in the same summer were calculated. Results During the study period, only one heat wave in 2005 was identified and the total number of excess deaths was 145 with an average of 12 deaths per day. The effect of the heat wave on non-accidental mortality （RR=l.23, 95% CI： 1.11-1.37） was found with statistically significant difference. Also, greater effects were observed for cardiovascular mortality （RR=l.34, 95% Cl： 1.13-1.59） and respiratory mortality （RR=I.31, 95% CI： 1.02-1.69）. Females, the elderly and people with lower socioeconomic status were at significantly higher risk of heat wave-associated mortality. Conclusion The 2005 heat wave had a substantial impact on mortality among the residents in Guangzhou, particularly among some susceptible subpopulations. The findings from the present study may provide scientific evidences to develop relevant public health policies and prevention measures aimed at reduction of preventable mortality from heat waves.

Analysis of a Community-based Intervention to Reduce Heat-related Illness during Heat Waves in Licheng,China:a Quasi-experimental Study

Objective To reduce health-related threats of heat waves, interventions have been implemented in many parts of the world. However, there is a lack of higher-level evidence concerning the intervention efficacy. This study aimed to determine the efficacy of an intervention to reduce the number of heat-related illnesses. Methods A quasi-experimental design was employed by two cross-sectional surveys in the year 2024 and 2015, including 2,240 participants and 2,356 participants, respectively. Each survey was designed to include one control group and one intervention group, which conducted in Licheng, China. A representative sample was selected using a multistage sampling method. Data, collected from questionnaires about heat waves in 2014 and 2015, were analyzed using a difference-in-difference analysis and cost effectiveness analysis. Outcomes included changes in the prevalence of heat-related illnesses and cost-effectiveness variables. Results Relative to the control participants, the prevalence of heat-related illness in the intervention participants decreased to a greater extent in rural areas than in urban areas （OR=0.495 vs. OR=2.282）. Moreover, the cost-effectiveness ratio in the intervention group was tess than that in the control group （usS25.06 vs. us$25.69 per participant）. Furthermore, to avoid one additional patient, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio showed that an additional USS14.47 would be needed for the intervention compared to when no intervention was applied. Conclusion The intervention program may be considered a worthwhile investment for rural areas that are more likely to experience heat waves. Meanwhile, corresponding improving measures should be presented towards urban areas. Future research should examine whether the intervention strategies could be spread out in other domestic or international regions where heat waves are usually experienced.

An Approach to Quantify the Heat Wave Strength and Price a Heat Derivative for Risk Hedging

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature （SAT）. Cooling degree days （CDD） are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network （GHCN-D） SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1~ x0.1~ latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that （a） the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and （b） a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.

Willingness to Pay for Measures of Managing the Health Effects of Heat Wave in Beijing,China:a Cross-sectional Survey

Objective There are evidences that heat wave events cause deaths and emergency cases. This article used the contingent valuation method to find the willingness to pay for the protective measures and investigated the factors that influence the willingness to pay. Methods A cross-sectional face-to-face household survey was completed by 637 urban long-term residents and 591 rural long-term residents aged 15-79 in Beijing, China. Binary logistic regression was used to identify factors that influenced the payment rate or payment amount for the protective measures, including independent variables for district, gender, age, education, income, air conditioner ownership, heat wave experience, and chronic non-communicable disease. Results The payment rate was 41.1% for protective measures provided by the government and 39.5% by measures provided by the market. Most of the respondents were willing to pay 40 CNY per capita annually for measures provided by the government or the market. The factors influencing willingness to pay were district, gender, income, air conditioner ownership, heat wave experience, and chronic non-communicable disease. Conclusion Protective measures for heat waves need to be provided immediately. More attention should be paid to the situation of vulnerable groups, such as people who live in urban areas, those without air conditioning, and those who have experienced a heat wave in the past.

Effects of Simulated Heat Wave and Ozone on High Fat Diet ApoE Deficient Mice

Objective To discuss the cardiac toxicities of a heat waves and ozone exposure on cardiovascular diseases（CVDs） and explore a possible mechanism. Methods The incidence of ozone exposure combined with heat wave was simulated in the Shanghai Meteorological and Environmental Animal Exposure System（Shanghai-METAS）. A total of 64 Apo E-/-mice, matched by weight, were randomly divided into 8 groups and exposed to heat wave conditions or ozone. The levels of creatine kinase（CK）, D-lactate dehydrogenase（D-LDH）, intercellular adhesion molecule 1（sICAM-1）, tumor necrosis factor alpha（TNF-α）, nitric oxide（NO）, endothelin-1（ET-1）, D-dimer（D2 D）, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1（PAI-1） and blood lipid in plasma and heat shock protein-60（HSP60）, hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha（HIF-1α）, interleukin-6（IL-6）, C-reactive protein（CRP）, superoxide dismutase（SOD）, and malondialdehyde（MDA） in hearts were measured after exposure. Results The levels of all indicators, except for SOD, increased with the ozone-only exposure. However, cardiac damage was most significant when the heat wave conditions were combined with severe ozone exposure. Moreover, the levels of CK, D-LDH, NO, PAI-1, sICAM-1, and TNF-α in plasma increased significantly（P 〈 0.05）, and the contents of HSP60, HIF-1α, CRP, and MDA in hearts increased considerably（P 〈 0.05）, but the activity of SOD decreased significantly. In addition, the levels of four blood lipid items remarkably increased（except the level of HDL-C which decreased significantly） with ozone exposure. Conclusion A short-term exposure to a heat wave and ozone causes severe toxic effects on the heart. Cardiac damage was most significant under combined heat wave and severe ozone exposure simulations.

Supersonic Propagation of Heat Waves in Low Density Heavy Material

The propagation of a supersonic heat-wave through copper-doped foam with a density of 50 mg/cm^3 was experimentally investigated. The wave is driven by 140 eV Holhraum radiations generated in a cylindrical gold cavity heated by a 2 kJ, ins laser pulse （0.35 μm）. The delayed breakout time of the radiation waves from the rear side of the foam is measured by a three-chromatic streaked x-ray spectrometer （TCS） consisting of a set of three-imaging pinholes and an array of three transmission gratings coupled with an x-ray streak camera （XSC）. With one shot, simultaneous measurements of the delays of the drive source and the radiation with two different energies （210 eV, 840 eV） through the foam have been made for the first time. The experimental results indicate that the time delays vary with photon energies. The radiation with an energy of 210 eV propagates at a lower velocity. The radiating heat wave propagates with a velocity that is larger than the sound speed. Using TGS, the transmitting spectrum was measured, and then lower limit of the optical depth which is more than 1, was obtained. The experimental data were in agreement with numerical simulations.

Quantification and Qualification Analysis of the Heat Waves Using Heat Wave Norm in the Region of Bechar (Algeria) during the Period 1951-2010

This study presents a new non-parametric measure of heat waves called heat wave norm (HWN), which allows quantifying and qualifying the magnitude of the summer heat wave events in the Bechar region located northwest of the Algerian Sahara over the period 1951-2010. The index, based on the analysis of daily maximum and minimum temperatures by adding them, integrated two dimensions at the same time: the duration and the excess heat. The results show an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events. More specifically, from the 1980s, it is possible to observe the propagation of extreme and very extreme and super extreme heat waves in recent decades with maximum presence during the period 1990-2010. In general, it can be said that the trend of excessive warming is clearly displayed in the Algerian Sahara, generally classified as a hot region.

Analysis of the Influence of Heat Wave on Death among the Elderly in Nanjing City

To obtain the influence of heat waves on death in the elderly, the influence of the heat waves in Nanjing in the summers (from June to August) of 2005-2008 on death among the elderly was analyzed by using statistical methods including generalized additive models. The results showed that the death toll over these four summers in Nanjing tended to increase;on an average 10.76% more males died than females, and the mortality rate of old people aged ≥65 accounted for 73.21% of all deaths. The mortality rate of older people rose with increasing maximum temperature. Furthermore, the average excess mortality rate caused by heat wave weather processes was 15.91%, while it was less affected by the duration of the heat wave. The death toll of the elderly increased with the increase in humidity, dropping of atmospheric pressure, and decrease of wind speed for 1°C increase of maximum temperature. Under the same humidity condition, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed, the death toll during heat wave days was higher than that occurring on other days, and heat waves increased the risk of death among the elderly by 26.6% (95% CI: 1.100 - 1.154). Daily mortality was mainly affected by the daily maximum temperature 1, 4, or 6 days later, particularly 4 days later. Heat wave was one of the principal factors, which caused the rise in death tolls in summer, and the elderly were most affected.

A Regional Climate Study of Heat Waves over the Iberian Peninsula

We present a regional climate simulation for the Iberian Peninsula for a 60-year period (1950-2009) using the WRF-ARW model with a focus on the simulation of summer maximum temperatures and associated extreme heat waves. The WRF model was designed at a 5 km horizontal resolution on a 5-month (May-September) seasonal scale, for every year, during the study period with initial/boundary conditions derived from NCEP 2.5 degree reanalysis. The comparison of simulated mean summer seasonal maximums and mean maximums of June, July, and August months with the corresponding E-OBS data sets indicates that the model is able to characterize the spatial variation of magnitudes of temperature change over the Iberian Peninsula. The mean extreme heat wave conditions during the climate period 1950-2009 are well simulated and match the observations well. The regional scale simulations clearly show the propagation of intense heat waves from the south west to north east of Iberia. The WRF-ARW model also simulated well the general trend of increase in heat waves over most parts of the Iberian Peninsula during the study period 1950-2009. The characteristics of the most severe heat waves years 2003 and 2006 are also well simulated by the model.

An Investigation of the Formation of the Heat Wave in Southern China in Summer 2013 and the Relevant Abnormal Subtropical High Activities

In the summer of 2013, an unprecedented heat wave was experienced over a vast area of southern China. The great areal extent, duration, and strength of this high temperature are very rare. For the 2013 hot spell, the major and direct influence mostly came from the anomaly of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). The abnormally strong and stable WPSH was associated with specific surrounding circulations. The eastward extension of a stronger Qinghai-Xizang high favored the westward extension of the WPSH. The weaker cold air activity from the polar region led to the northward shift of the WPSH and helped it to remain stable. In the tropics, the western segment of the ITCZ was abnormally strong in the period, and supported the maintenance of the WPSH from the south. In addition, the interdecadal variation of the WPSH provided a decadal background for the anomaly variation of the WPSH that summer.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Heat Waves in China from 1961 to 2010

Daily maximum temperatures from 753 stations across China and the heat wave indicators are used to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of heat wave intensity, frequency and heat wave days in China over the period of1961–2010. The results show that high frequency, long duration and strong intensity of heat waves occurred in the Jianghuai area, Jiangnan area, and eastern Sichuan Basin. The highest frequency and the longest duration are located in northern Jiangxi and northern Zhejiang provinces, and the highest intensity in northern Zhejiang province is even more prominent. The frequency, heat wave days and intensity showed a general increasing trend in the past 50 years, while decadal characteristics are also observed with a decreasing trend from the 1960 s to the early 1980 s and increasing trend from the end of the 1980 s to 2010. The regional variations demonstrate a significant increasing trend in the northern and western parts of North China, central-northern part of Northwest China, the central part of South China, the Yangtze River Delta and the southern Sichuan Basin, with an obvious decreasing trend in the southern Huanghuai area, northern Jianghuai area and Hanjiang River Basin.

APPLICATION OF WRF/UCM IN THE SIMULATION OF A HEAT WAVE EVENT AND URBAN HEAT ISLAND AROUND GUANGZHOU

This paper evaluated the performance of a coupled modeling system,Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)/Urban Canopy Model(UCM),in the simulation of a heat wave event which occurred around Guangzhou during late June through early July,2004.Results from three experiments reveal that the UCM with new land data(hereafter referred to as E-UCM)reproduces the best 2-m temperature evolution and the smallest minimum absolute average error as compared with the other two experiments,the BPA-Bulk Parameterization Approach with new land data(E-BPA)and the UCM with original U.S. Geological Survey land data(E-NOU).The E-UCM is more useful in capturing the temporal and spatial distribution of the nighttime Urban Heat Island(UHI).Differences in surface energy balance between the urban and suburban areas show that low daytime albedo causes more absorption of solar radiation by urban areas.Due to the lack of vegetation which inhibits cooling by evapotranspiration,most of the incoming energy over urban areas is partitioned into sensible heat flux and therefore heats the surface and enhances the heat wave.During nighttime,the energy in the urban area is mainly from soil heat flux.Although some energy is partitioned as outgoing long wave radiation,most of the soil heat flux is partitioned into sensible heat flux due to the small latent heat flux at night.This leads to the development of nighttime UHI and the increase of the magnitude and duration of heat waves within the municipality.

Extended-range prediction of a heat wave event over the Yangtze River Valley:role of intraseasonal signals

江淮流域热浪事件的触发与大气季节内信号的传播密切相关。基于ECMWF次季节预测系统的回报数据,本研究在延伸期(10–30天)尺度上评估了一次典型江淮热浪事件的预测情况。评估采用气候态与季节内模态剥离的方法,揭示出大气季节内信号在江淮热浪延伸期预测中的必要作用。结果表明,相较于热带季节内信号,中纬度季节内信号在延伸期的预测偏差,是导致热浪超前2周预测失败的主要原因。本研究的重要启示是,提高中纬度地区大气季节内信号在延伸期尺度上的预测效果是提升东亚极端热浪事件预测水平的重要途径。

The Quasi-Static Approximation of Heat Waves in Anisotropic Thermo-Elastic Media

The equilibrium equations of anisotropic media, coupled to the heat conduction equations, are studied here based on the standard spaces of the physical presentation, in which an new thermo-elastic model based on the second law of thermodynamics is induced. The uncoupled heat wave equation for anisotropic media is deduced. The results show that the equation of heat wave is of the properties of dissipative waves. In final part of this paper, we discuss the propagation behaviour of heat waves for transversely isotropic media.

On the Relationship between Heat Waves over the Western and Central Europe and NAO, SOI, El-Nino 3.4 in Summer 2015

An extreme warming hit Europe in summer of the year 2015. The present paper investigates the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and El-Nino 3.4 and heat waves that persist over the western and central Europe in the summer of 2015. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis daily dataset of the mean surface air temperature for the domains of the western and central Europe for summer months (June, July and August) of the year, 2015 has used. In addition, the time cross-section analysis of the daily gridded operational data for the mean surface air temperature over the western and central Europe from 1 June to 31 August 2015 has done. Moreover, daily datasets of the NAO, SOI, and El-Nino 3.4 for that period have used. The time series, time cross section, anomaly and correlation coefficient techniques are used to analyze the data sets. The results revealed that the cases of heat waves that existed over the western and central Europe through the summer season of the year 2015 were controlled distinctly by the negative phase of the NAO and positive phase of ENSO.

Projected heat wave increasing trends over China based on combined dynamical and multiple statistical downscaling methods

Extensive investigations on the projection of heat waves(HWs)were conducted on the basis of coarse-resolution global climate models(GCMs).However,these investigations still fail to characterise the future changes in HWs regionally over China.PRECIS dynamical downscaling with a horizontal resolution of 25 km×25 km was employed on the basis of GCM-HadCM3 to provide reliable projections on HWs over the Chinese mainland,and six statistical downscaling methods were used for bias correction under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The multi-method ensemble(MME)of the top three dynamical downscaling methods with good performance was used to project future changes.Results showed that PRECIS primarily replicated the detailed spatiotemporal pattern of HWs.However,PRECIS overestimated the HWs in the Northwest and Southeast and expanded the areas of HWs in the Northeast and Southwest.Three statistical downscaling methods(quantile mapping,CDF-t and quantile delta mapping)demonstrated good performance in improving PRECIS simulation for reproducing HWs.By contrast,parametric-based trend-preserving approaches such as scaled distribution mapping and ISI-MIP are outperformed by the three aforementioned methods in downscaling HWs,particularly in the high latitudes of China.Based on MME projections,at the end of the 21st century,the national average of the number of HW days each year,the length of the longest HW event in the year and the extreme maximum temperature in HW will increase by 3 times,1 time and 1.3℃,respectively,under the RCP4.5 scenario,whilst that under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 8 times,3 times and 3.7℃,respectively,relative to 1986-2005.The Northwest is regionally projected to suffer long and hot HWs,whilst the South and Southeast will experience frequent consecutive HWs.Thus,HWs projected by the combined dynamical and statistical downscaling method are highly reliable in projecting HWs over China.

Web GIS-Based Temporal Analysis of Climatic Factors Impacting Heat Stroke in Karachi

This study focuses on the impact of climate change, specifically the increasing threat of heatwaves, in Pakistan, with a particular emphasis on the city of Karachi. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) analysed a century of climatic data to reveal warming trends, attributing them to human-induced factors. The vulnerability of Pakistan to climate change is highlighted, given its warm climate and location in a region where temperature increases are expected to surpass global averages. The study examines the past three decades, noting a significant rise in the frequency of hot days, especially in Karachi, where heatwaves have become more prevalent. The aims and objectives of the study involve identifying temporal changes in temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind speed from 1984 to 2014 in Karachi. The literature review emphasizes the health implications of heatwaves, citing increased mortality during such events globally. The study incorporates a comprehensive temporal analysis, addressing gaps in previous research by considering multiple climate indicators responsible for heatwaves. The methodology involves statistical analyses, including linear regression and Pearson correlation, applied to temperature data and urbanization parameters. Results indicate an increasing trend in heat index temperature, with heatwave vulnerability peaking in the last three decades. Heat Index Temperature Anomalies show a clear surge, emphasizing the need for new indices to control critical heat stress conditions. The study concludes that tropical climate variability, particularly heat index, is linked to extreme hot days, urging measures to reduce population vulnerability. The findings underscore the importance of policy strategies, such as integrated coastal zone management, to mitigate the adverse health effects of heatwaves in Karachi’s vulnerable population.

Observed Trends in Various Aspects of Compound Heat Waves across China from 1961 to 2015

Based on combined thresholds of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, a compound heat wave is defined, and then changes in multiple aspects of such heat waves in China are estimated between 1961 and 2015. Our results intriguingly indicate that severe compound heat waves in northern China are characterized by excessively high in- tensity within short duration, while long duration determines great disaster-causing potential of severe events in the south. In the past few decades, large areas of China have experienced longer, stronger, and more frequent compound heat waves. Northern China has witnessed dramatic intensity increases, with a maximum amplification over 5~C dec- ade-~; while remarkable lengthening in duration has been mostly recorded in the south, with a maximum trend over 1 day decade-1. The spatial extent affected by compound heat waves has significantly expanded since the 1960s, with the largest expanding rate over 6% decade-1 detected in North China and Northeast China. These systematic assess- ments serve to deepen our understanding of observed changes in compound heat waves across China, and may fur- ther shed some light on future adaptations and mitigations against an increasingly wanning climate.

Three-Dimensional Urban Thermal Effect across a Large City Cluster during an Extreme Heat Wave:Observational Analysis

Given extensive and rapid urbanization globally,assessing regional urban thermal effects(UTE)in both canopy and boundary layers under extreme weather/climate conditions is of significant interest.Rapid population and economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)have made it one of the largest city clusters in China.Here,we explore the three-dimensional(3D)UTE in the YRD using multi-source observations from high-resolution automatic weather stations,radiosondes,and eddy covariance sensors during the record-setting heat wave(HW)of July-August 2013.It is found that the regional canopy layer UTE is up to 0.6-1.2℃,and the nocturnal UTE(0.7-1.6℃)is larger than daytime UTE(0.2-0.5℃)during the HW.The regional canopy layer UTE is enhanced and expanded northwards,with some rural sites contaminated by the urban influences,especially at night.In the boundary layer,the strengthened regional UTE extends vertically to at least 925 hPa(~750 m)during this HW.The strengthened 3D UTE in the YRD is associated with an enlarged Bowen ratio difference between urban and non-urban areas.These findings about the 3D UTE are beneficial for better understanding of the thermal environment of large city clusters under HW and for more appropriate adaption and mitigation strategies.