Diagnosis of the Heavy Rain near a Meiyu Front Using the Wet Q Vector Partitioning Method

A heavy rain process of the Changjiang-Huaihe Meiyu front (MYF) is diagnosed by the agency of the traditional Q vector partitioning (QVP) method to decompose the wet Q vector (Q) in a natural coordinate system that follows the isoentropes and by using the numerical simulation results of the revised MM4 meso-scale model. The technique shows that the partitioned wet Q vectors can lead to a significant scale separation of vertical motion related to the torrential rain. The results not only verify the existing conclusion that different scales interact throughout the rainstorm but also indicate the largely different roles of these scales during differing phases of the heavy ramfall on a quantitative basis. Specifically, during the developing stage, the large-scale plays a predominant role in forcing vertical motion, while frontal-scale forcing is secondary; during the intense stage, the frontal-scale evolves into the primary factor of forcing vertical motion, whereas the large-scale forcing is minor and plays a diminishing role and can even be ignored; and during the decaying stage, the large-scale once again serves as the main forcing of vertical motion in such a way that the forcing of the frontal-scale decays quickly and is of secondary importance. Furthermore, the partitioned wet Q vectors are suggested to be more suitable than the total wet Q vector for evaluating the potential physical mechanism of rainstorm genesis. The first step is that the forcing of large-scale $2?bla cdot {? Q}_s^*$ gives rise to the genesis of meso-scale $2?bla cdot {? Q}_n^*$ forcing; and then, accordingly as $2?bla cdot {? Q}_n^*$ forcing increases, whereby the secondary circulation is reinforced, the intensity of the rainfall is strengthened; and at last, the secondary circulation caused by $2?bla cdot {? Q}_n^*$ forcing is directly responsible for generation of the MYF heavy rainfall.

Diagnosis and Analysis on the Heavy Rainstorm Weather Induced by " Higos" Weakened Circulation

The large-range heavy precipitation occurred in the central-southern coast of Fujian on October 6,2008.By using the conventional meteorological data and NCEP 1°×1° 6 h one time analysis data,we analyzed,diagnosed and discussed the reasons of this heavy rainstorm occurrence and maintenance.The results showed that this heavy rainstorm weather process was mainly formed by the low-pressure system which was remained after ' Higos' weakened.The low-pressure system was excited by the weak cold air in the low layer which was brought by 500 hPa westerly trough.The common effect of southwest jet stream in the low altitude in the southeast of low pressure and the northerly airflow in the northwest made that the low-pressure circulation strengthened and maintained.The calculation gained the physical quantity field configuration which was favorable for the appearance of heavy precipitation.The analysis on the relative helicity of windstorm showed that the distribution and the time evolution of helicity had the good corresponding relationship with the distribution and the time evolution of heavy precipitation.The intensity variation of helicity had the certain instruction significance on the rainstorm evolution.

Analysis on A Heavy Rain to Rainstorm Weather Process in Liaoning Province

By using the synoptic chart,the physical quantity field,the satellite cloud image and the meteorological elements in the single station,a typical heavy rain to rainstorm weather process which occurred in Liaoning during August 18-20 in 2009 was comprehensively analyzed.The results showed that this process was a weather process which was affected by the upper trough and the subtropical high.Baikal Lake split cold air and Hetao cold air shifted eastward and formed the vortex.The subtropical high extended westward,lifted northward,and the warm wet airflow in the edge cut in.The low-altitude jet stream accelerated the transportation of water vapor,and several active meso-scale convective cloud clusters which appeared in 588 line periphery in the right side of high-altitude jet stream outlet gradually merged with the westerlies system.It caused that the strong mixed precipitation process occurred.

Numerical Simulation and Diagnosis of A Rainstorm in Guangdong Province

A heavy rainfall process in Guangdong Province on 17-18 in June of 2009 was simulated by the mesoscale numerical model MM5 and was analyzed with the synoptic charts and satellite imagine.The results indicated that 500 hPa southern trough and 850 hPa shear line constituted the two systems of causing the weather process of heavy precipitation,whose favorable configuration was the focus of the heavy rain forecast.High-level westerly jet stream played an important role in this heavy rainfall process.With the 'suction effect' of strong upper-level jet divergence at 200 hPa level,the low-level shear line pressed southward,which made low-level warm damp air move upwards along the shear line so as to generate a strong upward motion,providing favorable background conditions for the occurrence and development of heavy precipitation.There was fairly good correspondence between 850 hPa horizontal helicity center and the influence system's development and movement.The distribution of horizontal helicity had a certain relationship with the falling areas of heavy precipitation.

Analysis of Simulated Heavy Rain over the Yangtze River Valley During 11-30 June 1998 Using RIEMS

RIEMS' ability to simulate extreme monsoon rainfall is examined using the 18-month (April 1997 September 1998) integrated results. Model-simulated heavy precipitation over the Yangtze River valley during 11-30 June 1998 is compared with the observation, and the relationships between this heavy rainfall process and the large-scale circulations, such as the westerly jet, low-level jet, and water vapor transport, are analyzed to further understand the mechanisms for simulating heavy monsoon rainfall. The analysis results show that (1) RIEMS can reproduce the pattern of heavy precipitation over the Yangtze River valley during 11-30 June 1998, but it is shifted northwestwards. (2) The simulated West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) that controls the East Asia Monsoon evolution is stronger than the observation and is extended westwards, which possibly leads to the north westward shift of the heavy rain belt. (3) The Westerly jet at 200 hPa and the Low-level jet at 850 hPa, both of which are related to the heavy monsoon rainfall, are reasonably reproduced by RIEMS during 11-30 June 1998, although the intensities of the simulated Westerly/Low-level jets are strong and the location of the Westerly jet leans to the southeast, which may be the causes of RIEMS producing too much heavy rainfall in the north of the Yangtze River valley.

Kinematic Structure of a Heavy Rain Event from Dual-Doppler Radar Observations

The detailed kinematic structure of a heavy rain event that occurred in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was investigated using dual-Doppler radar observation. A variational analysis method was developed to obtain the three-dimensional wind fields. Before the analysis, a data preprocessing procedure was carried out, in which the temporal variation with the scanning time interval and the effect of the earth curvature on the data position were taken into account. The analysis shows that a shear line in the lower and middle levels played an important role in the rainfall event. The precipitation fell mainly on the south end of the shear line where southerly flow prevailed and convergence and updraft were obvious. With the movement and decay of the shear line, the precipitation moved and decayed correspondingly.

The Influences of Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes on Mesoscale Heavy Rain System

The mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (MM4) in which the computations of the turbulent exchange coefficient in the boundary layer and surface fluxes are improved, is used to study the influences of boundary layer parameterization schemes on the predictive results of the mesoscale model. Seven different experiment schemes (including the original MM4 model) designed in this paper are tested by the observational data of several heavy rain cases so as to find an improved boundary layer parameterization scheme in the mesoscale meteorological model. The results show that all the seven different boundary layer parameterization schemes have some influences on the forecasts of precipitation intensity, distribution of rain area, vertical velocity, vorticity and divergence fields, and the improved schemes in this paper can improve the precipitation forecast. Key words Boundary layer parameterization - Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (MNWP) - Turbulent exchange coefficient - Surface fluxes - Heavy rain This paper was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49875005 and No. 49735180).

Study on Moist Potential Vorticity and Symmetric Instabilityduring a Heavy Rain Event Occurred inthe Jiang-Huai Valleys

In the light of the theory on moist potential vorticity (MPV) investigation was undertaken of the 700 hPa vertical (horizontal) component MP1 (MPV2) for the heavy rain event occurring in July 5–6, 1991. Results show that the distribution features of the two components were closely related to the development of a mesoscale cyclone as a rainstorm-causing weather system in the lower troposphere in such a way that the ambient atmosphere of which MPV1 > 0 and MPV2 < 0 with |MPV1| ≥ |MPV2| favored the genesis of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) and that, as indicated by calculations, a CSI sector was really existent in the lower troposphere during the heavy rain happening and contributed greatly to its development.

A Study on Water Vapor Transport and Budget of Heavy Rain in Northeast China

The characteristics of moisture transport and budget of widespread heavy rain and local heavy rain events in Northeast China are studied using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis 6-hourly and daily data and daily precipitation data of 200 stations in Northeast China from 1961-2005. The results demonstrate that during periods with widespread heavy rain in Northeast China, the Asian monsoon is very active and the monsoonal northward moisture transport is strengthened significantly. The widespread heavy rainfall obtains enhanced water vapor supply from large regions where the water vapor mainly originates from the Asian monsoon areas, which include the East Asian subtropical monsoon area, the South China Sea, and the southeast and southwest tropical monsoon regions. There are several branches of monsoonal moisture current converging on East China and its coastal areas, where they are strengthened and then continue northward into Northeast China. Thus, the enhanced northward monsoonal moisture transport is the key to the widespread heavy rain in Northeast China. In contrast, local heavy rainfall in Northeast China derives water vapor from limited areas, transported by the westerlies. Local evaporation also plays an important role in the water vapor supply and local recycling process of moisture. In short, the widespread heavy rains of Northeast China are mainly caused by water vapor advection brought by the Asian monsoon, whereas local heavy rainfall is mainly caused by the convergence of the westerly wind field.

Relationship Between Persistent Heavy Rain Events in the Huaihe River Valley and the Distribution Pattern of Convective Activities in the Tropical Western Pacific Warm Pool

Using daily outgoing long-wave radiation （OLR） data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data of geopotential height fields for 1979-2006, the relationship between persistent heavy rain events （PHREs） in the Huaihe River valley （HRV） and the distribution pattern of convective activity in the tropical western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） is investigated. Based on nine cases of PHREs in the HRV, common characteristics of the West Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） show that the northern edge of the WPSH continues to lie in the HRV and is associated with the persistent ＂north weak south strong＂ distribution pattern of convective activities in the WPWP. Composite analysis of OLR leading the circulation indicates that the response of the WPSH to OLR anomaly patterns lags by about 1-2 days. In order to explain the reason for the effects of the distribution pattern of convective activities in the WPWP on the persistent northern edge of the WPSH in the HRV, four typical persistent heavy and light rain events in the Yangtze River valley （YRV） are contrasted with the PHREs in the HRV. The comparison indicates that when the distribution pattern of the convective activities anomaly behaves in a weak （strong） manner across the whole WPWP, persistent heavy （light） rain tends to occur in the YRV. When the distribution pattern of the convective activities anomaly behaves according to the ＂north weak south strong＂ pattern in the WPWP, persistent heavy rain tends to occur in the HRV. The effects of the ＂north weak south strong＂ distribution pattern of convective activities on PHREs in the HRV are not obvious over the seasonal mean timescale, perhaps due to the non-extreme status of convective activities in the WPWP.

A Spatial Cluster Analysis of Heavy Rains in China

Clustered heavy rains （CHRs） defined using hierarchical cluster analysis based on daily observations of precipitation in China during 1960-2008 are investi- gated in this paper. The geographical pattern of CHRs in China shows three high-frequency centers--South China, the Yangtze River basin, and part of North China around the Bohai Sea. CHRs occur most frequently in South China with a mean annual frequency of 6.8 （a total of 334 times during 1960-2008）. June has the highest monthly frequency （2.2 times/month with a total of 108 times dur- ing 1960-2008）, partly in association with the Meiyu phenomenon in the Yangtze River basin. Within the past 50 years, the frequency of CHRs in China has increased significantly from 13.5 to 17.3 times per year, which is approximately 28%. In the 1990s, the frequency of CHRs often reached 19.1 times per year. The geographical extent of CHR has expanded slightly by 0.5 stations, and its average daily rainfall intensity has increased by 3.7 mm d-1. The contribution of CHRs to total rainfall amount and the frequency of daily precipitation have increased by 63.1% and 22.7%, respectively, partly due to a significant decrease in light rains. In drying regions of North and Northeast China, the amounts of minimal CHRs have had no significant trend in recent years, probably due to warming in these arid regions enhancing atmospheric conveetivity at individual stations.

THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CHINA IN ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SUMMER MONSOON AND TRANSPORTOF MOISTURE IN A HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTH CHINA IN 1994

The trajectory of atmospheric particles and material lines on an isentropic surface are computed using the Lagrangian method. It is shown that the 1994 heavy rain in South China was closely linked to the summer monsoon, especially the tropical monsoon in East Asia. which plays a decisive role. The method is useful in tracking the source area and evolution of water moisture and analyzing the transporting part of airflow for water moisture.

Statistical Prediction of Heavy Rain in South Korea

This study is aimed at the development of a statistical model for forecasting heavy rain in South Korea. For the 3-hour weather forecast system, the 10 km×10 km area-mean amount of rainfall at 6 stations （Seoul, Daejeon, Gangreung, （Jwangju, Busan, and Jeju） in South Korea are used. And the corresponding 45 synoptic factors generated by the numerical model are used as potential predictors. Four statistical forecast models （linear regression model, logistic regression model, neural network model and decision tree model） for the occurrence of heavy rain are based on the model output statistics （MOS） method. They are separately estimated by the same training data. The thresholds are considered to forecast the occurrence of heavy rain because the distribution of estimated values that are generated by each model is too skewed. The results of four models are compared via Heidke skill scores. As a result, the logistic regression model is recommended.

Analysis of Causes for an Uncommon Persistent Heavy Rain During Winter

[Objective] The aim was to study the causes for one large scale of consecutive rainstorm process in the winter of 2010 in Guangxi. [Method] The characteristics and causes of the uncommon persistent heavy rain occurring in Guangxi in January, 2010 were analyzed by using synoptic observation data, NCEP 1°×1° per six hours Global Data Assimilation System reanalysis data and satellite image. [Result] The results showed that this persistent heavy rain process was associated with abnormal intensity and the stability of the western pacific subtropical high. The heavy rain was caused by the cloud system maintaining for a long time on the edge of subtropical high. The convergence of the infrequent southeast jet was the primary cause of the uncommon heavy rain. MPV1>0, and MPV2<0 at 700 hPa were the favorable conditions for the heavy rain. The magnitude of MPV1 and MPV2 was equivalent. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for the forecast of the following similar extreme weather.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LATENT HEAT DUE TO DIFFERENT CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON AN AUTUMN HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER HAINAN ISLAND

We analyzed cloud microphysical processes' latent heat characteristics and their influence on an autumn heavy rain event over Hainan Island,China,using the mesoscale numerical model WRF and WRF-3DVAR system.We found that positive latent heat occurred far above the zero layer,while negative latent heat occurred mainly under the zero layer.There was substantially more positive latent heat than negative latent heat,and the condensation heating had the most important contribution to the latent heat increase.The processes of deposition,congelation,melting and evaporation were all characterized by weakening after their intensification;however,the variations in condensation and sublimation processes were relatively small.The main cloud microphysical processes for positive latent heat were condensation of water vapor into cloud water,the condensation of rain,and the deposition increase of cloud ice,snow and graupel.The main cloud microphysical processes for negative latent heat were the evaporation of rain,the melting and enhanced melting of graupel.The latent heat releases due to different cloud microphysical processes have a significant impact on the intensity of precipitation.Without the condensation and evaporation of rain,the total latent heating would decrease and the moisture variables and precipitation would reduce significantly.Without deposition and sublimation,the heating in high levels would decrease and the precipitation would reduce.Without congelation and melting,the latent heating would enhance in the low levels,and the precipitation would reduce.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VARIATION IN HORIZONTAL VORTICITY AND HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PROCESS OF MCC TURNING INTO BANDED MCSS

Using real-time data and the WRF mesoscale model,a heavy rain event in the process of Mesoscale Convective Complex(MCC) turning into banded Mesoscale Convective Systems(MCSs) during 18-19 June 2010 is simulated and analyzed in this paper.The results indicated that the formation and maintenance of a southwest vortex and shear line at 850 h Pa was the mesoscale system that affected the production of this heavy rain.The low-vortex heavy rain mainly happened in the development stage of MCC,and the circular MCC turned into banded MCSs in the late stage with mainly shear line precipitation.In the vicinity of rainfall area,the intense horizontal vorticity due to the vertical shear of u and v caused the rotation,and in correspondence,the ascending branch of the vertical circulation triggered the formation of heavy rain.The different distributions of u and v in the vertical direction produced varying vertical circulations.The horizontal vorticity near the low-vortex and shear line had obvious differences which led to varying reasons for heavy rain formation.The low-vortex heavy rain was mainly caused by the vertical shear of v,and the shear line rainfall formed owing to the vertical shear of both u and v.In this process,the vertical shear of v constituted the EW-trending rain band along the shear line,and the latitudinal non-uniformity of the vertical shear in u caused the vertical motion,which was closely related to the generation and development of MCSs at the shear line and the formation of multiple rain clusters.There was also a similar difference in the positively-tilting term(conversion from horizontal vorticity to vertical positive vorticity) near the rainfall center between the low-vortex and the shear line.The conversion in the low vortex was mainly determined by бv/бp<0,while that of the shear line by бu/бp<0.The scale of the conversion from the horizontal vorticity to vertical vorticity was relatively small,and it was easily ignored in the averaged state.The twisting term was mainly conducive to the reinforcement of precipitation,whereas its contribution to the development of southwest vortex and shear line was relatively small.

THE USE OF RADAR DATA IN THE NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF HEAVY RAINFALLS IN THE CHANGJIANG-HUAIHE RIVER BASIN

It is important for predictions of heavy rainfall to include radar data to provide better reflection of moisture. Numerical experiments were carried out with real cases of heavy rains in the Changjiang (Yangtze)-Huaihe River Basin using a PSU/NCAR mesoscale model that incorporated radar data. Processed radar data were added to the model to change the analysis of initial humidity field before 24-h numerical simulations were made and the results compared with a control experiment. It is suggested that the radar-data-incorporated numerical predictions could produce locations of precipitation areas and maximum rainfall that are closer to reality than the control, due to the fact that moisture and converging updraft are strengthened in the middle and lower levels of the troposphere in the area of heavy rains and areas nearby. The work is expected to improve numerical modeling and forecasts of heavy rains in middle and lower latitudes of China.

Diagnostic Analysis on Heavy Rain Process of the Northeast-moving Southwest Vortex

The moving path of southwest vortex and the mechanism of heavy rain in the north were studied in order to find out the forecasting point of the northern heavy rain,so as to improve the forecasting ability of the heavy rain disastrous weather.A large-scale heavy rain process in northern China from 18 to 21 July 2010 was diagnostically analyzed using meteorological conventional and intensified observation data and NCEP 1°× 1° reanalysis data.The result showed that the southwest vortex moved northeastward under the guidance of southwest airflow in the periphery of subtropical high,which was the direct influence system of the heavy rainfall.The heavy rainfall occurred on the east side of the symmetrical axis of the 700 hPa low vortex.The southwest jet provided abundant water vapor and potential instability energy for the occurrence of heavy rainfall.The changes of vorticity advection and temperature advection in the lower and middle troposphere were the leading causes of affecting the development and movement of the low vortex.The low vortex moved along the positive vorticity advection increasing region and the warm advection increasing region.The dry and cold air intruded into the low vortex from the middle layer,which promoted the generation and development of the unstable stratification of upper cold and lower warm,and provided unstable and triggering conditions for heavy rain.The water vapor transport from the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea was very abundant,and the water vapor flux was very high,reaching 30 g/(s·cm·hPa).It was the main reason for the maximum precipitation in Liaoning Province,which was the farthest from the southwest vortex source.The study deepened the understanding of the structural characteristics of the southwest vortex and revealed the dynamic mechanism of the northeast movement and development of the southwest vortex as well as the cause of rainstorm induced by interaction with other weather systems.It can provide some forecasting ideas and useful references for forecasting the movement of the southwest vortex and the heavy rain weather in the north.

A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF INTERACTIONS BETWEEN MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS IN TYPHOONS AND MESOSCALE HEAVY RAINS

In this paper, time and space distribution regularity of meso-scale heavy rains in five selected typhoons which landed at Fujian from 1996 to 1998 has been analyzed. Besides, with hourly digitized satellite infrared imagery, the features of the mesoscale are revealed for the genesis and evolution of mesoscale convective systems in typhoons. It indicates that the intensity of mesoscale storms is closely connected with the temperature and the area of the coldest cloud cluster. The heavy rainfall usually emerges on the eastern side of the mesoscale convective cloud clusters, where the cloud mass is developing and with a dense gradient and big curvature of isoline of the cloud top temperature.