Analysis of Water Resources Supply and Demand and Security of Water Resources Development in Irrigation Regions of the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

Based on the data for meteorology, hydrology, soil, planting, vegetation, and socio-economic development of the irrigation region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, Northwest China, the model of balance of water supply and demand in the region was established, and the security of water resource was assessed, from which the results that the effects of unified management of water resources in the Heihe River basin between Gansu Province and Inner Mongolia on regional hydrology are significant with a decrease in water supply diverted from Heihe River and an increase in groundwater extracted. In addition, it was found that the groundwater level has been steadily decreasing due to over pumping and decrease in recharges. In present year （2003）, the volume of potential groundwater in the irrigation districts is far small because of the groundwater overdraft; even in the particular regions, there is no availability of groundwater resources for use. By 2003, water supply is not sufficient to meet the water demand in the different irrigation districts, the sustainable development and utilization of water resources are not secured, and the water supply crisis occurs in Pingchuan irrigation district. Achieving water security for the sustainable development of society, agriculture, economy, industry, and livelihoods while maintaining or improving the abilities of the management and planning of water resources, determining of the reasonable percentage between water supply and groundwater utilization and water saving in agricultural irrigation are taken into account. If this does not occur, it is feared that the present performance of water development and planning may further aggravate the problem of scarcities of water resources and further damage the fragile ecological system.

Relationship between sand-dust weather and water dynamics of desert areas in the middle reaches of Heihe River

Sand-dust weather has become an international social-environmental issue of common concern, and constitutes a serious threat to human lives and economic development. In order to explore the responses of natural desert sand and dust to the dynamics of water in desertification, we extracted long-term monitoring data related to precipitation, soil water, groundwater, and sand-dust weather. These data originated from the test stations for desertification control in desert areas of the middle reaches of the Heihe River. We used an algorithm of characteristic parameters, correlations, and multiple regression analysis to establish a regression model for the duration of sand-dust weather. The response char-acteristics of the natural desert sand and dust and changes of the water inter-annual and annual variance were also examined. Our results showed： （1） From 2006 to 2014 the frequency, duration, and volatility trends of sand-dust weather obviously increased, but the change amplitudes of precipitation, soil water, and groundwater level grew smaller. （2） In the vegetative growth seasons from March to November, the annual variance rates of the soil moisture content in each of four studied layers of soil samples were similar, and the changes in the frequency and duration of sand-dust weather were similar. （3） Our new regression equation for the duration of sand-dust weather passed the R test, F test, and t test. By this regression model we could predict the duration of sand-dust weather with an accuracy of 42.9%. This study can thus provide technological support and reference data for water resource management and re-search regarding sand-dust weather mechanisms.

Measurement on the Harmony Coefficient of Agro-eco-economic System in the Arid Region

On the basis of the present research progress of ecological agriculture,we take Minle County and Linze County located in the middle reaches of Heihe River as the typical research units.Based on the rural social and economic data during the period of 2000-2010,theory and method of mathematical statistics are used to establish the measure theory and model of agro-eco-economic system harmony coefficient,including efficacy function,function of harmony coefficient,harmony coefficient and level of harmony coefficient.Based on the actual situation of research region,evaluation indicator system of agro-eco-economic system is established and measurement is carried out.Results show that the regional agro-eco-economic system in research region was in a serious imbalance in 2000-2013.The harmony coefficient of Minle showed a slight rise from 2000 to 2004,and then presented a fluctuating decline.Its rank of harmony coefficient experienced serious imbalance-extreme imbalance-moderate imbalance-low imbalance-serious imbalance-high imbalance.At the same time,the similar tendency happened in Linze County.The measuring results of subsystem in 2000-2013 further indicated that except that the harmony coefficient of economic subsystem in Minle County and Linze County was moderate and high,the ecological subsystem was at Level II and Level III,and social subsystem was at Level IV and Level III,in high and low imbalance status.Finally,several recommendations were put forward for optimizing agro-eco-economic system.