Optimal Insurance with Background Risk under the Ambiguity and Belief Heterogeneity Structure

In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal insurance contract when maxing the insured’s expected utility of his/her remaining wealth under the smooth ambiguity model and the heterogeneous belief form satisfying the MHR condition. We calculate the insurance premium by using generalized Wang’s premium and also introduce a series of stochastic orders proposed by [1] to describe the relationships among the insurable risk, background risk and ambiguity parameter. We obtain the deductible insurance is the optimal insurance while they meet specific dependence structures.

Influence of Media Attention on Investors'Heterogeneous Beliefs:A Case Study of China's Stock Market

With the rapid development of Internet media,Internet media coverage has more or less influence on investors'psychological level.This article uses Python technology to climb 2019.9 to 2020.1 of the monthly news reports on A share listed companies in the Snowball net,and studies the relationship between media attention and investors'heterogeneous beliefs.It is found that media attention is positively correlated with investors'heterogeneous beliefs,that is,investors are more likely to choose stocks frequently reported by media.Further research finds that media reports will strengthen investors'heterogeneous beliefs,affect investors'investment behavior,and ultimately lead to the increase of stock trading volume.

Changes in firm profitability, heterogeneous investor beliefs, and stock returns

In this study,we show that changes in profitability predict a firm's stock returns and future profitability.We construct three horizon-based profitability changes,including short-,medium-,and long-term changes.We find that the predictive information for short-term changes in profitability is not subsumed by the profitability level in the Chinese stock market.We also find that short-term profitability changes generate an asymmetrical premium across different market states.Furthermore,we find that the beta anomaly is embedded in the premium generated by a short-term change in profitability.In addition,we explore the underlying mechanisms of the profitability premium and propose a heterogeneous investor belief channel to explain the profitability premium.We find that riskbased q-theory also helps explain the profitability premium.Therefore,the profitability premium comes from a mixed source and cannot be entirely explained by a single theory.

Heterogeneous Beliefs,Trading Volume,and Seemingly Emotional Stock Market Behavior

Various information types and rational learning methods have shown that heterogeneous belief changes in a rational expectation model can explain many empirical findings in stock markets, such as momentum, contrarians, and technical trading. The methods have also shown that momentum and price movements can coexist in an asset market with only rational agents. The purpose of this paper is to provide a rational economic theory to explain these phenomena. Results of a dynamic programming model with heterogeneous beliefs show that the dynamic interactions between information diffusion and belief changes create continuation and reversals. The duration and magnitude of momentum and price movements are associated with trading volume. Therefore, rational investors should incorporate price and volume information in their trading decisions.

Asymmetric Information, Heterogeneous Prior Beliefs and Market Regulation

This paper studies the trading behavior of an irrational insider and its influence on the market equilibrium in the presence of market regulation.We find that the market with only one insider with private information is almost close to a strong efficient market,under the condition of market regulation.In the equilibrium,the probability of the insider being caught trading with private information is zero,which shows that the reasonable behavior of the regulator is to essentially give up regulation.But the market efficiency and the irrational trader’s trading intensity all greatly improve because of the existence of the market regulation.

A Binomial Model of Asset and Option Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs

This paper provides a difference-in-opinions equilibrium framework for pricing asset and option in a multi-period binomial economy with heterogeneous beliefs.Agents agree to disagree about their beliefs on the probability and asset return in each state of nature.By constructing a consensus belief,we examine the impact of heterogeneous beliefs on market equilibrium.We show that agents'wealth shares are expected to remain the same under the consensus belief,although they are expected to increase under their own beliefs.Also large disagreement leads to lower risk premium,while high disagreement on the future return in up state(down state)leads to lower(higher)risk-free rate and expected return for the risky asset.Furthermore,under the consensus belief,the implied volatility of the call options exhibits some observed patterns widely documented in option markets.

Corporate Financial Policies under Heterogeneous Beliefs

This study investigates a firm's financing,investment,and payout policies through a rational expectation equilibrium based on which managers and outside investors have heterogeneous prior beliefs.The proposed model demonstrates that managers tend to overinvest(underinvest)if the extent of heterogeneousness is above(below)a threshold,which differs under distinct circumstances.Moreover,a price bubble is positively related to overinvestment,and the model shows that a firm's optimal financing choices and payout policies vary with the assumption of heterogeneous beliefs.