RMB Exchange Rate,Overseas Education,and High-Quality Economic Growth

China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.

China’s Economic Growth and High-Quality Development:2020-2035

The time period between 2020 and 2035 is vital for China to achieve its second centennial goal.During this period,China must avoid the middle-income trap and achieve socialist modernization.To accomplish this goal,China must maintain a certain pace of economic growth and strive to double its real GDP per capita by 2035.However,by the current growth trajectory,China’s average economic growth rate is expected to stay at approximately 3.8%over the period between 2020-2035.This makes the GDP per capita growth target hard to achieve.Even when in a high-quality development stage,China should speed up economic growth while enhancing growth quality.Speed and quality are interdependent rather than contradictory with each other.To ramp up economic growth potentials,China must proceed with market-oriented reforms and shift economic growth drivers.To improve economic growth quality,household consumption should be increased to unleash China’s full potential,not only as the factory floor of the world but also one of world’s biggest markets,i.e.“dual circulations.”With appropriate policy response,China’s economy will be poised to achieve the goal of doubling real GDP per capita by 2035,marking a large stride in its economic aggregate and urban and rural household per capita incomes.

Economic Growth Expectation Targets,Elastic Constraints,and High-Quality Economic Development

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)in China from 2006 to 2019,the empirical study finds that the target values of economic growth expectation can promote high-quality economic development,and there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between elastic target constraints and high-quality economic development.The elastic constraints can reduce the investment rate and improve the total factor productivity(TFP),which promotes high-quality economic development,but its mediating effect accounts for a small proportion.With the improvement of the marketization degree,the inhibiting effect of elastic constraints on high-quality economic development reduces.The analysis of the heterogeneity between the new or old normal and the levels of economic development shows that in the future,developed regions should set high target values and low elastic constraints,and underdeveloped regions should set high elastic constraints on the target values of economic growth expectation.

Structural Transformation,TFP and High-Quality Development

In this paper,we performed an empirical study on the TFP effect of structural transformation based on panel data of economic growth in 169 countries across the world.Our findings are threefold:First,structural transformation has an inverted U-shaped effect on TFP.When the degree of structural transformation is on the left side of the inflection point,structural transformation is conducive to softening industrial structure and inducing TFP;when the degree of structural transformation is on the right side of the inflection point,structural transformation will induce industrial hollowing out and inhibit TFP.Second,since the reform and opening up program was launched in 1978,China’s structural transformation has evolved from the stage of adaptation to the stage of strategic adjustment with an increasingly evident trend towards a service-based economy,but structural transformation remains on the left side of the inflection point of the inverted U-shaped curve,i.e.the TFP effect of structural transformation is positive.Third,TFP improvement lies at the heart of high-quality development.In pursuing high-quality development,China should lower growth rate expectations,attach greater importance to supply-side structural reforms,and accelerate structural transformation to promote TFP improvement.

Human Resource Management Theory in the Context of Economic Development Transformation from the Perspective of the Social Productive Forces

This paper explores the development of the human resource management theory from the perspective of social productive forces,deeply analyzing the development of the current social productive forces and the characteristics of the socio-economic development.It can be concluded that the development of the human resource management theory is closely related to the socio-economic development pattern.The twenty first century is a knowledge-driven era,and"eco-friendly"and"low-carbon"are the basic characteristics of the socio-economic development of the era of the knowledge-driven economy,which has great influence on the subject,aim and content of human resource management.Green human resource management conforms to the trend of the transformation of the socio-economic development.Based on the management of"human",it creates an eco-friendly,low-carbon and sustainable environment for enterprises,which promotes the transformation from extensive growth to intensive growth of the macro management of enterprises.

Does green growth in E-7 countries depend on economic policy uncertainty,institutional quality,and renewable energy?Evidence from quantile-based regression

Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from conventional economic growth to green growth.Although the existing literature has discussed several determinants of green growth,the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),renewable energy consumption(RENE),and institutional quality(IQ)on green growth(GGDP)is relatively unexplored.Hence,this study is the earliest attempt to investigate the impact of EPU,IQ,and RENE on GGDP for emerging seven(E-7)countries from 1996 to 2019.In doing so,we apply panel quantile regression(PQR).The empirical findings delineate that EPU has a negative impact on GGDP,whereas IQ and RENE enhance the GGDP in E-7 countries.Based on the outcomes,this study suggests policy implications for achieving targets of the SDG 07,SDG 08,SDG 13,and SDG 16.The governments of these countries can achieve higher GGDP by ensuring political stability and reliable macroeconomic policies and through making such flexible policies that can easily control or address unpredictable future economic issues.

Impact of natural resource mining on sustainable economic development:The role of education and green innovation in China

As the extraction and usage of natural resources continue to be a double-edged sword-supporting economic growth but deteriorating the environment-we study the impact of natural resource mining on sustainable economic development in the largest(PPP)economy-China.We use province-level data from 2001 to 2020 and employ econometric panel techniques,such as fixed effects,two-stage least squares,and a battery of robustness tests.We further explore the potential effects of education and green innovation in mitigating/exacerbating the role of natural resources in the Chinese provincial economy.The results show that:(1)Natural resource mining hurts sustainable development,verifying the“resource curse”effect.(2)Green innovation and education restrain the negative impact of resource mining on sustainable development,turning the curse into a blessing.(3)A regional heterogeneity is observed in the impact of resource mining on sustainable development,showing more significant effects in the Western and low-urbanized regions.(4)Green innovation and education can assuage the curse effect of natural resources into gospel effect.Policy implications and recommendations are proposed in light of the findings to promote sustainable economic development in China.

中国降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展空间关联网络特征及影响因素研究

协同推进降碳-减污-扩绿-增长已成为我国经济社会发展全面绿色转型的必然选择。基于我国30个省份面板数据(不包含港澳台地区以及西藏自治区数据),运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型和社会网络分析方法,分析各省份间降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同演变趋势及空间关联网络特征。结果表明:①各省份降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同效应的变化趋势基本一致,但在空间上呈现东部>东北>西部>中部的区域不均衡特征。②降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同效应呈现以东部地区为核心的复杂空间网络结构,省际间空间关联性呈上升态势,但网络结构稳定性还有待提高。③北京市、天津市和上海市等地区凭借优越区位,在关联网络中处于主导地位,而宁夏回族自治区、黑龙江省和新疆维吾尔自治区等地区对其他地区的影响较小。④北京市、天津市和上海市等地区属于“主受益”板块,浙江省、广东省等地区属于“经纪人板块”,安徽省、江西省和湖北省等地区属于“净溢出”板块。⑤降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同效应的空间关联网络受多种因素共同影响,人力资本水平、科技投入、市场化水平和数字经济发展均有利于空间关联关系的建立。研究显示,中国降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同效应存在空间关联性,需进一步加强省份间的绿色合作与交流,共同推动降碳-减污-扩绿-增长协同发展。

绿色考核能破解“资源诅咒”吗?——来自资源型城市的证据

因面临“资源诅咒”问题,传统资源型城市如何通过绿色转型实现可持续发展,一直是困扰学界和政界的重大难题。该研究以中央政府节能减排目标考核政策为切入点,探讨绿色考核对资源型城市绿色转型发展的作用机制和经济后果。在理论分析的基础上,运用综合指数法计算绿色考核政策的强度,并使用方向距离函数模型对资源型城市绿色经济增长指标进行了测算,进而基于2006—2020年的城市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型和工具变量模型实证检验了绿色考核政策和资源城市绿色经济增长两者之间的关系。结果表明:①地方政府绿色考核能够显著促进资源型城市绿色经济增长、破解“资源诅咒”,该结论在改变自变量测度、排除竞争性解释等多重情景下依然稳健。②绿色考核主要通过区域绿色技术创新、工业结构清洁化、资源配置优化三条作用途径,实现对绿色经济增长的促进作用。③异质性分析表明,在地方官员晋升激励强、地方国企依赖程度低的地区,绿色考核政策促进资源型城市绿色经济增长的效果更加明显;此外,在成长阶段为成熟型和衰退型、以煤炭和金属类为主要禀赋的资源型城市,绿色考核政策效果更好。区别于以往研究大多围绕资源管理提出的破解策略,该研究揭示了良好的目标考核机制也能有效破解“资源诅咒”。这不仅为资源型城市绿色转型与可持续发展提供了决策依据,也为“资源诅咒”治理文献补充了新的经验证据。

碳中和相关问题研究综述与展望

剖析碳中和的具体含义以及与之相关且容易被混淆的概念,归纳达成碳中和的技术路径,从理论层面梳理碳中和的经济和就业影响。研究指出,能源转型、碳税、碳抵消、碳技术是实现碳中和的重要路径;实现碳中和目标取决于碳捕获和封存等技术的研发与应用,自愿碳抵消只是一种辅助性工具;实现碳中和对经济发展和就业的影响是复杂的,需要综合考虑能源转型、环境规制、技术创新等多种因素。基于此,探讨目前碳中和问题存在的争议并指出了未来的研究方向。

雾霾治理能否促进绿色经济增长——基于“2+26”城市治霾方案的准自然实验

以2014—2020年中国282个地级市(州)为样本,运用双重差分法评估了雾霾治理政策对绿色经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,雾霾治理政策在促进绿色经济增长方面起到了显著的推动作用。从动态分析来看,政策实施对目标地区绿色经济增长的促进作用相对稳定。此外,雾霾治理政策对非资源型城市的绿色经济增长具有促进作用,而对资源型城市的作用不显著;同时,相较于规模较大的城市,雾霾治理政策的实施对于中小城市的绿色经济增长的促进效果更为显著。机制分析表明,实施雾霾治理政策通过促进绿色技术创新和产业结构升级两条路径促进绿色经济增长。

黄河流域降碳-减污-扩绿-增长耦合协调的动态演进及其影响因素

[目的]探究黄河流域环境保护与经济发展的耦合协调性及其影响因素,为全流域高质量发展提供理论参考。[方法]基于耦合协调模型、Dagum基尼系数、马尔科夫链和地理加权回归模型,研究分析了2009—2020年黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长的时空耦合动态演进及其影响因子。[结果](1)黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长的耦合协调度总体呈现波动中上升趋势,耦合协调度值空间上呈现下游地区最大,中游地区次之,上游地区最小。(2)上游地区耦合协调度水平的地区内差距明显高于中下游地区,地区间差距由大到小依次为上游与下游>上游与中游>中游与下游,地区差距主要来源于地区内差距和超变密度差距。(3)降碳—减污—扩绿—增长系统的耦合协调度状态之间流动性较低,具有维持原有状态的稳定性,且短时间内难以实现跨越式的发展演进。(4)产业结构优化能够有效促进黄河流域耦合协调发展,政府干预对大部分省区耦合协调发展促进作用明显,市场需求与技术成果有效结合才能更进一步促进黄河流域耦合协调度的提升。[结论]黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长的时空耦合整体呈上升趋势,影响此系统耦合协调度的因素较为复杂,未来应从优化产业结构、加强技术成果转化等方面,促进黄河流域降碳—减污—扩绿—增长协同发展。

科技金融生态对绿色技术创新和区域经济增长的影响研究

科技金融生态发展对绿色技术创新、区域经济增长有着重要作用。本文从政府、企业、中介和市场四个层面构建科技金融生态指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法对2012—2021年中国29个省份的科技金融生态指标进行赋权测算,并构建非参数可加模型对中、东、西部地区科技金融生态水平进行回归分析。结果表明:我国科技金融生态、绿色技术创新和经济高质量发展水平均不断提高;科技金融生态模式的构建对绿色技术创新和区域经济增长均具有显著促进作用,但影响结果存在地区异质性。

数字经济发展赋能绿色经济增长:后发优势与隧道效应

文章测算了我国281个地级及以上城市数字经济发展综合指数和基于碳排放效率的绿色经济增长指数,并从技术进步角度分析和探究数字经济赋能绿色经济增长的机制,从相对差距的视角论证数字化程度较低的城市发展数字经济的驱动因素及后发优势。研究发现:(1)数字经济能够显著地促进绿色经济增长,是提升碳排放效率、助力高质量发展的重要因素;(2)数字经济能够通过促进技术进步赋能绿色经济增长;(3)数字经济在相对落后的城市存在后发优势,发展数字经济是缩小城市差距、实现区域协调的重要手段;(4)在数字经济发展相对落后的城市中存在隧道效应,该效应是相对落后城市发展数字经济的关键因素。

环境目标约束对能源结构低碳转型的影响

加快能源消费结构低碳转型是实现中国式现代化发展的重要途径。鉴于中国资源禀赋的特殊性和区域能源分布差异,各地区对煤炭的依赖程度有很大差别。煤炭资源依赖程度对能源结构低碳转型的差异性影响值得高度关注。为系统评估环境目标约束对煤炭资源依赖地区能源消费结构低碳转型的影响,该研究在理论分析环境目标约束对各地区能源消费结构的内在影响机理,以及经济增长压力和绿色金融在其中发挥的调节作用基础上,以中国特色环境目标约束制度为准自然实验,中国30个省份2003—2020年面板数据为样本,采用广义双重差分模型实证检验环境目标约束对地区能源消费结构低碳转型的影响,并讨论了经济增长压力与绿色金融对该影响的调节作用。研究结果表明:①环境目标约束制度实施后,相比非煤炭资源依赖地区,煤炭资源依赖地区能源消费结构低碳转型受阻,说明存在“绿色悖论”效应。该结论在考虑相关政策影响、运用合成工具变量等方法处理内生性问题后依然稳健。②影响机制检验表明,在煤炭资源依赖地区,地方政府在环境目标约束和经济增长目标“双目标”压力下,更有动力推动能源消费结构低碳转型;受金融监管水平和企业“洗绿”行为影响,绿色金融加剧了煤炭资源依赖地区的能源转型困境。③基于地区市场环境的拓展性分析表明,相比高市场化水平地区,低市场化水平地区的环境目标约束对能源消费结构低碳转型的抑制作用更为突出。研究建议高度重视煤炭资源依赖地区的能源消费结构调整,因地制宜有序推进能源结构低碳转型;将“绿色”作为地方经济增长的底色,以绿色发展理念引领地方经济增长;构建科学高效的绿色金融监管制度,确保绿色金融资金真正运用到绿色低碳项目中;完善市场化的环境规制机制,塑造良好的营商环境。

创新集聚对工业绿色转型的影响

本文通过构建包含创新集聚部门的新经济增长模型,理论阐释了创新集聚对工业绿色转型的非线性作用机制,并基于2006—2020年中国282个城市面板数据,实证检验了创新集聚对工业绿色转型的非线性影响及异质性、空间溢出效应,并验证财政纵向失衡和外商直接投资在其中的调节效应。研究发现:创新集聚对工业绿色转型影响呈U型特征;创新集聚在有效推动东部城市、一线城市工业绿色转型的同时,却抑制了中部城市、资源型城市、四五线城市工业绿色转型;创新集聚影响工业绿色转型的U型特征受到财政纵向失衡的负向调节和外商直接投资的正向调节;创新集聚对地理距离相近地区工业绿色转型的影响存在显著的倒U型空间溢出效应。

China’s High-Quality Economic Growth in the Process of Carbon Neutrality

China has the largest energy system in the world,with fossil energy accounting for 84%.The carbon neutrality target calls for peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2060.By then,the non-fossil energy will account for over 80%of China’s energy mix.Based on China’s national conditions,this paper makes scenario analysis of carbon peaking in 2030.The results of this paper indicate that the peak values of carbon emission in 2030 depends on both the development of clean energy and the growth of energy power demand.Therefore,the growth rate of the two should be balanced to control the peak carbon emission.High-quality economic growth in China in the context of carbon neutrality requires“double decoupling”,namely,decoupling GDP from the consumption of fossil energy and the growth of energy power demand as much as possible.To this end,this paper proposes a systematic solution considering both the demand and supply sides,with market-oriented measures that are workable for it.Ensuring the safe and stable supply of energy(power)is the basic principle of clean and low-carbon economic transformation,as well as a major challenge for energy system transformation.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a path for coal power decommissioning and low-carbon transformation in line with China’s national conditions.

Black or Green?Economic Growth Patterns in China under Low Carbon Economy Targets

Achieving dual goals of economic growth and carbon emission reduction is a major issue in China. In this paper we deifne three economic growth patterns （green growth, brown growth and black growth） according to the relationship between economic scale and carbon emissions, and then trace the historical trajectory of economic growth over the last 40 years. Granger causality is used to test China’s economic growth and carbon emission linkage. We argue that green growth means that the rate of carbon emission reduction is faster than the increase in GDP. When carbon intensity reduction is slower than GDP growth, brown growth occurs. Black growth occurs when both carbon intensity and economic scale increase. For China, we denote the four periods of black growth （1971–1977）, brown growth （1978–2001）, black growth （2002–2004）, and brown growth （2004–2010）. Granger causality tests indicate that mutual causality between carbon emissions and economic growth exists in the short term, but not the long term. In order to achieve the goals of economic growth and carbon intensity reduction, it is necessary for China to actively participate in global carbon reduction activities, technological innovation and ecological civilization construction.

环境规制下长三角城市群技术协同创新网络特征对绿色经济增长的影响

以长三角城市群联合申请专利数据为基础,构建城市群技术协同创新网络。结合社会网络分析方法和固定效应面板模型,揭示跨区域技术协同创新网络静态特征(网络位置、网络关系强度)与动态特征(扩张性、稳定性)对绿色经济增长的影响,以及环境规制的调节作用。研究表明:网络位置、自我中心网络稳定性对绿色经济增长具有显著正向影响;网络关系强度与绿色经济增长之间存在U型关系;自我中心网络扩张性对绿色经济增长具有抑制作用;环境规制正向调节网络位置、网络关系强度、稳定性与绿色经济增长的关系。

创新驱动绿色经济增长的理论分析与实证检验

为了研究创新如何赋能绿色经济增长,首先从理论上解析了创新驱动绿色经济增长的直接作用机制和传导机制,提出研究假说;其次构建直接效应模型和中介效应模型,运用2005—2020年中国省级面板数据实证检验理论假说。研究发现创新驱动存在正向赋能绿色经济增长的直接效应,并且创新驱动绿色经济增长的正向赋能在经济发展水平较高的地区作用效果更强。创新也能够通过人力资本、产业升级、金融发展和政府干预等中介传导机制间接赋能绿色经济增长。各中介变量作用强度按照“人力资本>产业升级>政府中介>金融发展”的大小排序,人力资本的中介作用最为强劲,金融发展作用强度最小。为了更好地实现创新驱动绿色经济增长,不仅应积极发挥创新驱动的直接赋能效应,还应该高度重视各种间接赋能机制。