Future Changes in Various Cold Surges over China in CMIP6 Projections

Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000.The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends.However,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China.Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China.In addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian trough.In terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.

Trend of Storm Surge Induced by Typical Landfall Super Typhoons During 1975–2021 in the Eastern China Sea

Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.

Exploration of standard dosage for GnRH antagonist protocol and dosage adjustments after premature luteinizing hormone surge

The gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist protocol has emerged as an efficacious alternative to the GnRH agonist protocol for controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) during in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles, and has been demonstrated applicability in infertile female patients with diverse ovarian responses. While the clinical implementation of the antagonist COH protocol has achieved widespread consensus, opportunities for refinement persist. Therefore, this review article focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of GnRH antagonist protocol, the selection of optimal standard doses, and the strategies for adjusting antagonist doses after the premature luteinizing hormone (LH) surge, aiming to provide more reasonable and scientific recommendations for the application of this scheme.

A typhoon-induced storm surge numerical model with GPU acceleration based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation grid

Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.

Metaverse Upsurge Drives Virtual Human Industry to Upgrade

The concept of a virtual human is rapidly fermenting with the boom of the metaverse in 2020.In March 2021,Roblox,a game company focusing on the socialization of teenagers’games and the free realization of UGC,went public.In its prospectus,Roblox is defined as the concept of the metaverse.Under this background,as the direct embodiment of“virtual identity”and“virtual reality coexisting”under the concept of the metaverse,the emerging definition of virtual human and its representative virtual image has gradually caught the attention of the public.

A Boost to Inbound Tourism China sees surge in foreign travellers following introduction of visa-free transit measures

One of the viral terms on Chinese social media these days-“city bu city”–was actually created by a foreign tourist.The tourist,a blogger,used the term,which literally means city or not city,in a short video he filmed while visiting the Great Wall,wondering whether the place is like a fashionable big city.

Novel layout design of 4H-SiC merged PiN Schottky diodes leading to improved surge robustness

A method to improve the surge current capability of silicon carbide(SiC)merged PiN Schottky(MPS)diodes is presented and investigated via three-dimensional electro-thermal simulations.When compared with a conventional MPS diode,the proposed structure has a more uniform current distribution during bipolar conduction due to the help of the continuous P+surface,which can avoid the formation of local hotspots during the surge process.The Silvaco simulation results show that the proposed structure has a 20.29%higher surge capability and a 15.06%higher surge energy compared with a conventional MPS diode.The bipolar on-state voltage of the proposed structure is 4.69 V,which is 56.29%lower than that of a conventional MPS diode,enabling the device to enter the bipolar mode earlier during the surge process.Furthermore,the proposed structure can suppress the occurrence of‘snapback'phenomena when switching from the unipolar to the bipolar operation mode.In addition,an analysis of the surge process of MPS diodes is carried out in detail.

Assessment of Storm Surge and Flood Inundation in Chittagong City of Bangladesh Based on ADCIRC and GIS

Coastal flooding caused by tropical cyclones has long been a major threat to life,property,and infrastructure in coastal zones.This study assessed the risk of flooding in Chittagong,southeastern Bangladesh,under extreme sea level scenarios caused by high astronomical tides and storm surges.The Jelesnianski typhoon model and the ADvanced CIRCulation hydrodynamic model were used to simulate 91 typhoons that occurred in the Bay of Bengal between 1981 and 2017,and observational data were used for model validation.The inundation model was based on a digital elevation model and a seed spread algorithm,and a geographical information system was used to visualize the flood risk.Under four scenarios,the changes in flood levels caused by sea level rise had no signifi-cant influence on the extent of flooding in Chittagong.At flood levels of 8.82m(50-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 8.89 m(50-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum estimated area of inundation was 11.35 km^(2).The western coastal and southeastern river coastal plain areas of Chittagong have the highest risk of inundation due to their low-lying terrain.At flood levels of 9.83m(100-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 9.97m(100-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum simulated flood extent was 36.44km^(2).Simulated floodwaters propagated in a south–north direction,and most of the northern areas of the city are at risk of inundation under these scenarios.

Numerical Study on Aerodynamic Performance of Floating Dual-Rotor Wind Turbines in Heave and Surge Motions

Compared with the traditional wind turbine of a single rotor,dual-rotor wind turbines(DRWTs)have higher wind energy capture efficiency and a more complex structure.Therefore,the aerodynamic performance of the DRWT installed on the floating platform will be greatly affected by the motion caused by wind and wave loads.In this paper,5 MW and 750 kW single rotor wind turbines(SRWTs)are combined into a 5 MW-5 MW DRWT and a 5 MW-750 kW DRWT,and their power output and wake field characteristics in different motions are studied.The flow field is obtained by solving the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equation(RANS).The overset grid technique is employed to achieve the large-amplitude multiple-degree-of-freedom motion of the DRWT.The overall performance of the 5 MW single rotor wind turbine is determined by a numerical method.For the DRWTs,numerical results show that the surge motion and heave motion both have a negative effect on the power output of the DRWT.The surge motion is a critical factor that causes the power output of the DRWT to periodically change with motion.The average power output of the DRWT influenced by motion is lower than that of a DRWT with a fixed bottom.The surge motion significantly disturbs the wake of the DRWT due to the mutual interference between the upstream and downstream rotors.Under the influence of heave motion,low-velocity regions downstream of the blade tip are enhanced.This study indicates that attenuating the surge and heave motion of offshore DRWT is very significant for improving its efficiency and should be taken into consideration during the design procedure.

Surging Consumption in Second and Third Tier Cities

Rich people in China are mainly gathered in the major and subordinate cities(the first,second & third tier cities).However,more than70% of the rich are outside of the major cities,with only 30% working and living in such

Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe risks.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge disaster.We constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme value.The over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period level.The results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold samples.The results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis samples.Taking the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 years.The results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally consistent.When classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more conservative.In the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.

Analysis of the Efficacy of Humidified High-Flow Nasal Oxygen Therapy Combined with Alveolar Lavage in the Treatment of Patients with Severe Pneumonia Complicated with Respiratory Failure

Objective:To analyze the curative effect of humidified high-flow nasal oxygen therapy combined with alveolar lavage in patients with severe pneumonia and respiratory failure.Methods:120 patients with severe pneumonia complicated with respiratory failure admitted to the Third People’s Hospital of Xining from July 2021 to December 2022 were randomly divided into two groups:group A and group B.The patients in group A were given humidified high-flow nasal oxygen therapy combined with alveolar lavage,whereas those in group B were given humidified high-flow nasal oxygen therapy.The treatment efficacy,blood gas analysis results,and differences in inflammatory mediators were compared between the two groups.Results:The curative effect in group A(96.67%)was significantly higher than that in group B(81.67%),P<0.05;the partial pressure of carbon dioxide(PaCO2),partial pressure of oxygen(PaO2),oxygen saturation(SpO2),and Horowitz index(P/F)of group A were significantly better than group B,P<0.05;the interleukin 6(IL-6),tumor necrosis factor alpha(TNF-α),and C-reactive protein(CRP)levels,white blood cell(WBC)count,serum procalcitonin(PCT),and neutrophil(N)percentage of group A were significantly lower than those of group B,P<0.05.Conclusion:For patients with severe pneumonia complicated with respiratory failure,alveolar lavage,on the basis of humidified high-flow oxygen therapy,can inhibit local inflammation,improve blood gas analysis results,promote disease recovery,and improve the clinical treatment effect。

航天供配电系统舵机负载浪涌抑制策略研究

随着航天器供配电系统的快速发展,大功率机电负载的使用逐渐增多,对其负载供电品质的要求也日益严格。针对高压大功率舵机负载工作状态变化大、要求响应快、动态指标高,导致机电舵机负载在工作过程中会频繁出现换向、加减速的工作特点,对电动舵机高速制动过程中产生的反灌能量进行供配电系统影响分析,提出供配电系统反灌浪涌抑制策略,提升供配电系统供电可靠性,确保航天器飞行任务中舵机负载的全程可靠运行。

1300—2019年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害时空分布特征

历史上江苏沿海曾频发2类风暴潮灾害,给当地带来了巨大损失。建立该地区长时间尺度的风暴潮灾害序列对了解过去与预测未来意义重大。以历史文献、地方志、海洋灾害公报等记载的风暴潮资料为基础,建立了风暴潮灾害识别体系,重建了1300—2019年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害序列,分析了风暴潮灾害时空变化规律,探究了其与气候异常和黄河、长江入海口变迁之间的关系。结果表明:江苏沿海地区主要受台风风暴潮灾害的影响,1300—2019年间共发生246次风暴潮灾害,平均周期为2.9年,且近100年来发生频率有增大的趋势;小波分析结果显示,风暴潮灾害年际变化存在17年、61年和115年的时间尺度周期,其中115年周期最为明显。海气相互作用影响下,厄尔尼诺活跃年江苏沿海台风风暴潮灾害偏少;气温与台风风暴潮灾害频次有一定的正相关性,但其影响机制尚不明确。盐城、南通和苏州为风暴潮灾害高发地区,常州和无锡发生频率较小。在气候变暖与江苏海岸冲淤变化的作用下,1855年后盐城和南通地区风暴潮灾害发生频率增加,连云港地区明显增加;随着海岸线的变迁与长江河口的演变,镇江、扬州、泰州与苏锡常地区受风暴潮灾害影响减少。

面向防洪“四预”的数字孪生流域水利专业模型研发与实践应用--以数字孪生飞云江流域为例

数字孪生流域是推动智慧水利建设的核心和关键,而水利专业模型是数字孪生流域建设的重要算法支撑。从实际业务支撑角度研发面向防洪“四预”的数字孪生流域水利专业模型,包括水文、水动力、水工程调度、风暴潮等模型,并以浙江省温州市的数字孪生飞云江流域为载体进行实践应用。结果显示,在应对台风“杜苏芮”“卡努”“鸿雁”过程中,各类模型运行情况良好,水文、水动力及风暴潮模型预报值与实测值拟合程度较高,误差满足规范许可要求,水工程调度模型可实现模型预期调度效果。研发的水利专业模型和应用案例可为其他流域数字孪生建设提供参考。

中国沿海地区热带气旋危险性分析

基于1980—2016年的西北太平洋热带气旋尺度资料,采用2种方法分析了热带气旋灾害的危险性。第一种方法根据热带气旋的风圈半径,用GIS生成了每个气旋的影响范围,对于登陆中国沿海的227个热带气旋,用叠加法得到了其影响范围与频次。第二种方法侧重热带气旋引发的风暴潮灾害,用潮位模型估算了热带气旋登陆时的潮位数据,提出了H3指标,该指标用潮位、风速和中心气压3个因子计算潮位点的风暴潮危险性,并根据H3指标得到了海岸线的危险性综合指标。分析结果表明,福建、广东两省受热带气旋的影响最为严重。37 a间,福建省有80%的面积(约9.8万km^(2))受热带气旋影响的频次超过20次;广东省则有70%的面积(约12.6万km2)受热带气旋影响的频次超过20次。受风暴潮危害大的海岸线主要位于广东、广西、福建、浙江四省,危险性指标在30以上的有广东的湛江市、茂名市、江门市、阳江市和珠海市;广西的北海市、防城港市和钦州市;福建的福州市以及浙江的台州市和温州市。

改良全程阴道紧缩术的临床疗效评价

目的探讨改良全程阴道紧缩术治疗中重度阴道松弛(VLS)患者的治疗疗效。方法选取2020年1月至2022年12月于郑州大学第三附属医院医疗美容科收治并成功随访的53例中重度VLS并实施改良全程阴道紧缩术的患者。比较患者手术相关指标、临床疗效和性功能改善情况。结果2例(3.77%)患者术后出现短暂的尿潴留,予以电刺激治疗后排尿顺畅,未再留置尿管;1例(1.89%)患者术后出现会阴切口少量渗血,压迫止血后好转;其余患者围手术期均无并发症发生。53例患者切口均为Ⅱ/甲级愈合,无血肿、感染及瘢痕增生等并发症。51例(96.23%)患者对外阴形态及阴道紧致程度满意;1例(1.89%)患者术后1个月有性生活史,术后2个月随访,阴道容2指松,对阴道紧致程度不满意;1例(1.89%)患者术后2个月阴道口黏膜稍有堆积,对外阴形态不满意;1例患者术后2个月出现性交痛,术后6个月自行好转;4例(7.55%)有阴道干涩的患者症状较术前有所缓解。7例(13.21%)有反复阴道瘙痒、分泌物增多等的患者症状较术前有明显改善;8例(15.09%)有性交疼痛的患者症状较术前明显改善。53例中重度VLS患者阴道动态压力值和FSFI-6评分在术后2个月、6个月和12个月与手术前比较时均显著改善,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05),且术后2个月、6个月及12个月阴道动态压力值前后对比,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论改良全阴道紧缩术不仅关注了阴道的功能和外阴的形态,还考虑到了加强盆底的支持作用,符合VLS整体诊治和盆底整体功能恢复的需求,具有操作安全,并发症少的优势,并且可以增加性快感的优势,临床应用效果令人满意。

多分水口长距离输水工程停泵水锤防护措施

为了能够有效避免多泵且多分水口输水系统在无防护抽水断电时可能出现较为严重的负水锤带来的危害,建立了全长106.46 km的大型供水工程的数学模型进行系统过渡过程计算,选择空气阀与两阶段液控蝶阀联合防护与单向塔防护2种方案消除其负水锤,在前者远不达理想防护效果后针对后者进行优化.结合工程实际在确定了单向塔的数量、位置以及塔高后,对不同位置单向塔的底面积进行多种方案的对比选取,最终选用塔1#的底面积为28.26 m^(2),塔2#的底面积为176.63 m^(2);为了防止单向塔漏空需要分水口以及供水终端调流阀配合关闭,在确保管道最大压力不超出其承压能力的前提下,创新性地对各分水口调流阀与供水终端调流阀的关闭时间规律进行了效果比较,使输水系统能够更加经济安全地稳定运行,为此类长距离多分水口多泵供水工程的水锤防护提供了优化方向.

具有自驱动有源缓冲器的GaN基高效准谐振反激式功率变换器

提出了一种具有自驱动有源缓冲器的GaN基高效准谐振(QR)反激式功率变换器,以解决准谐振反激式功率变换器中开关管关断时电压过高的问题。电路以GaN高电子迁移率晶体管(HEMT)器件为主开关管和同步整流器开关管,自驱动有源缓冲器由钳位电容和有源开关管组成。该变换器在主开关管关断期间将开关管的电压浪涌钳位为恒定电压,由于有源开关管驱动信号由变压器的次级侧电流控制,因此不需要单独的控制电路。为验证所提出的变换器和控制电路的有效性,搭建了一个60 W的AC-DC功率变换器,测试结果表明,主开关管的最大电压浪涌约为450 V,具有高达91.6%的能量转换效率。

压敏电阻防起火技术研究

针对金属氧化物压敏电阻(MOV)在工作中出现的失效和燃烧事故,给出几种在线监控MOV的方法,其能够在MOV失效前发出告警信号,并及时处理,从而避免严重事故发生。通过实践证明该监控方法有效并且可规模应用。监控技术在MOV器件上实现技术和应用突破,可供其他类型浪涌保护器件参考。