Regression model for daily passenger volume of high-speed railway line under capacity constraint

A non-linear regression model is proposed to forecast the aggregated passenger volume of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway(HSR) line in China. Train services and temporal features of passenger volume are studied to have a prior knowledge about this high-speed railway line. Then, based on a theoretical curve that depicts the relationship among passenger demand, transportation capacity and passenger volume, a non-linear regression model is established with consideration of the effect of capacity constraint. Through experiments, it is found that the proposed model can perform better in both forecasting accuracy and stability compared with linear regression models and back-propagation neural networks. In addition to the forecasting ability, with a definite formation, the proposed model can be further used to forecast the effects of train planning policies.

Evaluation and optimization analysis of high-speed rail network structure in Northeast China under the background of northeast revitalization

The construction of high-speed rail(HSR)network has promoted the social-economic ties of cities,accelerated the compression of time and space,and changed the pattern of regional development.In this paper,with the adoption of the operation frequency data of HSR from 12306 website,and based on the HSR connection strength model and social network analysis model,as well as according to the HSR connection strength,HSR network density,centrality,agglomeration subgroup,and other indicators,we analyzed the characteristics of HSR network structure in Northeast China.Results show that the number of HSR cities in Northeast China is small,cities in HSR network generally exhibit weak connectivity,and the existence of HSR network marginalizes cities such as Ulanhot,Baicheng,and Songyuan,which significantly reduce the overall network connectivity of Northeast China.The overall centrality of HSR network in Northeast China is characterized by“one axis,four edges”;specifically,the one axis is located in Harbin-Dalian transportation line and the four edges are located on both sides of the main axis of Harbin-Dalian transportation line.Eight agglomeration subgroups(four double city subgroups and four multi city subgroups)have formed in Northeast China.The core status of Shenyang in HSR network is improved significantly,and“one axis and two wings”HSR network in Liaoning Province is improved significantly.With the gradual expansion of Chaoyang-Fuxin,Dandong-Benxi,and Jilin-Yanji branch networks,the“point axis”HSR network mode in Northeast China has gradually developed and matured.In the future,it is recommended to rely on eight agglomerating subgroups to encrypt HSR network structure,create secondary node central cities,and gradually build a new pattern of opening up in Northeast China.

复合型轨道交通车站交通接驳需求预测方法——以北京草桥站为例

由于服务客群的多样化,复合型轨道交通车站的接驳需求、接驳设施配置及布局原则等均与普通轨道交通车站存在差异.通过分析不同服务客群在出行特征及交通接驳需求上的差异,提出复合型车站的接驳需求预测方法.以北京草桥站为例,在其区位、功能定位、现状及规划条件的基础上,通过对大兴机场线服务的航空客流、19号线及10号线服务的普通客流的出行特征及接驳需求的分析,得到多类型客流下车站分方式接驳需求量及设施规模.最后,结合出行特征及用地条件对车站交通接驳设施进行设置与布局.

交通枢纽与城市功能一体化方案研究——以西丽枢纽为例

在"站城一体化"的背景下,轨道交通已经从传统的单一交通功能发展成为多种功能的载体,在此基础上,更加注重其与城市功能的紧密联系。以深圳市西丽枢纽为例来研究西丽如何从高铁接驳预测,片区的客流服务,城市轨道换乘的便捷性,客流组织难度,以及地块开发影响层面达成交通枢纽和周围地块片区的紧密融合。