The Empirical Analysis on the Dynamic Effect of Rural-urban Migration on the Consumption Growth of Residents in China——Based on Varying Parameter State-space Model

The research constructed varying parameter state-space model and per- formed estimation on dynamic relationship between urban-rural migration and aggre- gate consumption expenditure on basis of dual economic structure. The results showed that urban consumption growth made the most contribution to aggregate consumption growth, followed by urban-rural migration caused consumption. The role of rural consumption growth kept stable, but consumption caused by population growth was decreasing. Therefore, China consumption growth mainly relies on urban consumption expenditure and urban-rural migration.

Economic growth and nutrition transition: an empirical analysis comparing demand elasticities for foods in China and Russia

This study provides empirical evidence on the link between economic growth and nutrition transition in two emerging economies, China and Russia. Both countries have experienced rising average incomes, accompanied by an increasing rate of nutrition-related chronic diseases in recent years. Given the regional heterogeneity between these two countries, we analyze the extent to which income growth as a major driver of nutrition transition has a significant effect on the consumption of different food aggregates and how these effects differ between Chinese and Russian consumers. Our results indicate that with increasing household incomes over time the demand for carbohydrates decreases, while the demand for meat and dairy products, as well as fruits increases. This is a development generally known as nutrition transition. Further, we estimate a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System（QUAIDS） for nine different food aggregates for China and Russia. Our results indicate that in both countries all food aggregates have positive expenditure elasticities and are thus normal goods. Moreover, our results indicate that in 2008/2009 meat is still a luxury good in China yet a necessity good in Russia. For 2009, the highest own-price elasticities in China are found for non-meat protein sources and dairy products. Within the meat group, beef, poultry and mutton have the highest price elasticities in China. In Russia, the milk and dairy group, together with the vegetable group, is the most price-elastic food group in 2008. In line with the definition of a nutrition transition, our overall results underscore the finding that income growth in China and Russia tends to increase the demand for animal-based products much stronger than, for example, the demand for carbohydrates. Despite being a positive signal for problems of malnutrition in rural China, this trend of increasing meat consumption might further increase the incidence of chronic diseases in urban areas since there is convincing scientific evidence that increasing meat consumption, especially red and processed meat, is associated with an increased risk of chronic diseases.

Nonlinear dynamics of pork price in China

This paper primarily analyzes the evolution path of China＇s pork price by employing the threshold autoregression model（TAR）. Considering the unit root test with a threshold effect and heteroskedasticity of the TAR model, we show that the pork price series is a unit root process in each regime, and the heteroskedasticity in the TAR model greatly affects the results of linearity test. We find that the changing process of pork price has two regimes： mild regime and expansion regime. In particular, a change belongs to an expansion regime if it is larger than 0.5881; otherwise, it falls in the mild regime.

Development of the Insurance Industry in Europe in Economic and Financial Crisis

This paper analyzes the evolution of the insurance sector in Europe, focuses on the European Union （EU） member states, and considers the impact of economic and financial crisis on that sector. The European private insurance market is a developed market having an investment portfolio of 7,740 billion euros in 2011, an amount corresponding to 55% of the gross domestic product （GDP） of the 32 European markets members of Insurance Europe. Therefore, the importance of this sector as a long-term investor and major employer is obvious for the stability and growth of European economy. However, the insurance sector has been considerably affected since 2009 due to the global economic and financial crisis, which has had negative effects not only on the evolution of the value of insurance premiums underwritten, but also on the return on investment of the insurance companies.