It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage pre...It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage predictor(EPDor)based on predicting peak ground velocities(PGVs)of sites.The EPDor is composed of three parts:(1)predicting the magnitude of an earthquake and PGVs of triggered stations based on the machine learning prediction models;(2)predicting the PGVs at distant sites based on the empirical ground motion prediction equation;(3)generating the PGV map through predicting the PGV of each grid point based on an interpolation process of weighted average based on the predicted values in(1)and(2).We apply the EPDor to the 2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,China to predict its potential damage.Within the initial few seconds after the first station is triggered,the EPDor can determine directly whether there is potential damage for some sites to a certain degree.Hence,we infer that the EPDor has potential application for future earthquakes.Meanwhile,it also has potential in Chinese earthquake early warning system.展开更多
Decoding the variation laws of the deformation field before strong earthquakes has long been recognized as an essential issue in earthquake prediction research. In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution cha...Decoding the variation laws of the deformation field before strong earthquakes has long been recognized as an essential issue in earthquake prediction research. In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of deformation anomalies in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before and after the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 earthquake were studied by using the Fisher statistical test method. By analyzing the characteristics of these anomalies, we found that: 1) The deformation anomalies are mainly distributed in the marginal front area of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, where short-term deformation anomalies are prone to occur due to a high gradient of gravity;2) The deformation anomalies along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are characterized by spatial propagation, and the migration rate is about 2.4 km/d. The propagation pattern is counterclockwise, consistent with the migration direction of M_(S)≥ 6.0 earthquakes;3) The time and location of the Menyuan earthquake are related to the group migration of earthquakes with M_(S)≥ 6.0. Finally,based on the results of gravity field variation and the theory of crust stress wave, the law of deformation anomaly distribution was discussed. We suggest that both the deformation propagation along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the earthquake migration are possibly associated with the variation of the stress field caused by subsurface mass flow.展开更多
中国大陆发生强震动力来源主要是在印度—欧亚板块碰撞下,青藏高原的北向运动、东部地区的东向运动作用(Wang and Shen,2020);近20年青藏高原北缘地块运动主流观点是巴颜喀拉块体向东运动带动周边地块的运动,但从近十年的地震活动分析,...中国大陆发生强震动力来源主要是在印度—欧亚板块碰撞下,青藏高原的北向运动、东部地区的东向运动作用(Wang and Shen,2020);近20年青藏高原北缘地块运动主流观点是巴颜喀拉块体向东运动带动周边地块的运动,但从近十年的地震活动分析,柴达木和祁连块体向东运动是增强的,2022年门源M_(S)6.9地震等一系列地震是典型的震例。展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U2039209, U1839208, and 51408564)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (LH2021E119)+1 种基金Spark Program of Earthquake Science (XH23027YB)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1504003).
文摘It is critical to determine whether a site has potential damage in real-time after an earthquake occurs,which is a challenge in earthquake disaster reduction.Here,we propose a real-time Earthquake Potential Damage predictor(EPDor)based on predicting peak ground velocities(PGVs)of sites.The EPDor is composed of three parts:(1)predicting the magnitude of an earthquake and PGVs of triggered stations based on the machine learning prediction models;(2)predicting the PGVs at distant sites based on the empirical ground motion prediction equation;(3)generating the PGV map through predicting the PGV of each grid point based on an interpolation process of weighted average based on the predicted values in(1)and(2).We apply the EPDor to the 2022 M_(S) 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province,China to predict its potential damage.Within the initial few seconds after the first station is triggered,the EPDor can determine directly whether there is potential damage for some sites to a certain degree.Hence,we infer that the EPDor has potential application for future earthquakes.Meanwhile,it also has potential in Chinese earthquake early warning system.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41330314)。
文摘Decoding the variation laws of the deformation field before strong earthquakes has long been recognized as an essential issue in earthquake prediction research. In this paper, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of deformation anomalies in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau before and after the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 earthquake were studied by using the Fisher statistical test method. By analyzing the characteristics of these anomalies, we found that: 1) The deformation anomalies are mainly distributed in the marginal front area of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, where short-term deformation anomalies are prone to occur due to a high gradient of gravity;2) The deformation anomalies along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are characterized by spatial propagation, and the migration rate is about 2.4 km/d. The propagation pattern is counterclockwise, consistent with the migration direction of M_(S)≥ 6.0 earthquakes;3) The time and location of the Menyuan earthquake are related to the group migration of earthquakes with M_(S)≥ 6.0. Finally,based on the results of gravity field variation and the theory of crust stress wave, the law of deformation anomaly distribution was discussed. We suggest that both the deformation propagation along the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the earthquake migration are possibly associated with the variation of the stress field caused by subsurface mass flow.
文摘中国大陆发生强震动力来源主要是在印度—欧亚板块碰撞下,青藏高原的北向运动、东部地区的东向运动作用(Wang and Shen,2020);近20年青藏高原北缘地块运动主流观点是巴颜喀拉块体向东运动带动周边地块的运动,但从近十年的地震活动分析,柴达木和祁连块体向东运动是增强的,2022年门源M_(S)6.9地震等一系列地震是典型的震例。
